Basel R2 preview and pick: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Nadal 2 USOIt was the unseeded player who had a much easier time advancing to the Basel second round, but both Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov managed to set up a blockbuster encounter on Wednesday. A place in the quarterfinals is at stake.

Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers when they collide in round two of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Wednesday night.

Nadal is sweeping the head-to-head series 6-0, including 3-0 on hard courts. Only their first-ever meeting came indoors, with the Spaniard surviving 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 at the 2009 Rotterdam event. Dimitrov took a set in each of their first four encounters, but Nadal blitzed through the last two. The current world No. 7 cruised 6-2, 6-2 last year in the Rome semifinals and 6-3, 6-4 earlier this season in the Madrid quarters.

This showdown came perilously close to being denied by none other than Lukas Rosol. The big-hitting Czech stormed out of the gates against Nadal on Monday and served for a straight-set win. Leading 6-1, 5-4, 30-0, however, Rosol cracked at the finish line and Nadal eventually prevailed 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4) after two hours and 16 minutes.

“It was a very tough match emotionally,” Basel’s No. 3 said after scraping past Rosol in what was a predictably contentious battle. “At the same time, it’s a great victory. It’s important for me to have these kinds of comebacks. I’ve been in these situations more times than I would like this year, so I’m happy to win a match like this.”

Nadal may be in the midst of a disappointing year overall, but he is a solid 9-2 since the U.S. Open.

Not unlike his opponent, Dimitrov will take a win any way he can get it these days. The 28th-ranked Bulgarian pocketed a refreshingly routine one on Tuesday, easing past Sergiy Stakhovsky 6-3, 6-4 without facing a single break point. Dimitrov is 31-20 for what has been a rough 2015 campaign and he is a similarly mediocre 5-4 since the start of the U.S. Open.
Dimitrov
Although the former world No. 8 is far more dynamic and overall better player than Rosol, he cannot trouble Nadal in the same way. Rosol blasted Nadal off the court for a set–and almost two–on Monday, just as he had done for three out of five sets at Wimbledon in 2012. Dimitrov has never been able to do so and his current form suggests nothing will change in this one.

With a match under his belt, Nadal should raise his level considerably and defeat Dimitrov for a seventh straight time.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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167 Comments on Basel R2 preview and pick: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

  1. I like Rafa’s chances against Dimi. He will come out with a big boost of confidence after the win against Rosol. In the past I would expect Dimi to maybe present a challenge, but not now. He’s had a rough year and this should be clear sailing for Rafa.

    Rafa in 2 sets.

  2. I need a kudla vs Jack sock analysis. Kudla looks to be in lower form recent but sock has played a lot recently and may be fatigued also kudla beat sock their most recent meetings. I think kludla can win you?

  3. Nadal was playing his 1st match indoors for a year against Rosol and Rosol had had a good run in Vienna, coupled with the fact that Rafa’s serve was below par at the beginning of the match. So there were reasons why Rosol was able to take charge of the match until late in the 2nd set when he blinked and Rafa stepped up. Rafa will need to serve well to be in the driving seat today.

    Now that Rafa has rubbed away the rust, he should play better against Dimi who really didn’t have to do a lot to win against Sergio yesterday.

  4. Bernard tomic is kyrgios mug friend. It’s funny he lost. In a similar fashion as kyrgios. I really think they both throw matches in these smaller tournaments and they have their friends bet against them. It’s totally possible look at. Kyrgios vs nedovyesov. Kyrgios was a -3000 favorite but he openly tanked the match and his reason was that he didn’t want to be there. I’m almost certain he told friends to bet against him for +1400 and they gots paid hard that Davis cup match. The fact that he has a bad boy personality supports him doing this with tomic. Tomic was arrested not too long ago from bs. Him and krygips are corrupted.

  5. I don’t agree with the comment about Tomic and Krygios. It’s a pretty serious allegation to level at any player, that they would deliberately throw any match to give their friends a good betting win. I just don’t see that.

  6. also bernard tomic was a -600 favorite during his newport match but he lost that one because he tanked it. he just dont care about winning. around this match time, he was drinking all night partying look here:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3164231/Disgraced-Australian-tennis-star-arrested-Miami-scuffle-security-wild-penthouse-party-lavish-beachfront-hotel.html

    he has been and will always not take tennis serious. He and kyrgios has the skills to beat almost anyone on their day but they just dont commit to it.

  7. Nadal with a forehand winner,then misses a forehand as Dimi forces him into an error, Nadal nets a cross court forehand to fall behind 15-30, Dimitrov nets a return 30 all Dimi has a Bp and he does get the break.

  8. Rafa broken in his first service game. I think Rafa tried to come out aggressive but was kind of sloppy with the errors.

  9. Dimitrov 30-0 but serves a double fault 15-30 but Nadal with a forehand miss gives Dimi 2 game points and Dimitrov holds with an astonishing shot.

  10. Nadal wins the 1st point when he forces Dimi to miss a backhand, Dimitrov hits a forehand winner but Nadal has 2 game points he misses the 1st but takes the 2nd. Dimitrov 3-2

  11. Dimitrov with an ace, Nadal with a missed forehand down the line, 30-0 Dimitrov with a serve over head combo 40-0 and Dimitrov holds to love with a nonreturnable serve.

  12. Koenig and co are riding two horses at once. They are praising Dimitrov to high heaven and being unduly hard on Rafa. But they’re hedging their bets in case Dimitrov doesn’t pull off the upset.

  13. Nadal rushes Dimi into an error as he moves to the net, Dimitrov with a forehand long, 30-0, Nadal with a first serve Dimi misses the return 40-0 and this time its Nadal who holds to love. Dimitrov 4-3

  14. Dimitrov seems determined and focused for the win today. This guy has been in such a slump but when I saw how he played against stakhovsky I was thinking this could be a tough one I went with rafa in straights before I saw how dimitrov had played first round so I kept that pick but I wasn’t sure heading in and now I really don’t know about Rafa in straights but then again this season dimitrov has lost leads a lot. Best example would be against Murray in cincy. Still he really has been striking the ball well here in Basel in the couple sets he’s played and his serve seems to be clicking more here. I’m not really rooting for anyone but I would say dimitrov needs this more than Rafa does considering Grigor hasn’t had a good win in ages unlike Rafa who has been rounding back into form lately.

  15. Dimitrov with a 30-0 lead, but then he misses long 30-15 a good return by Nadal and this time Dimitrov misses a backhand 30-30 Nadal nets to give Dimi the game point but Nadal wins a rally, then forces Dimitrov to go for too much on the forehand and he has a set point and Nadal takes the first set 6-4.

  16. Nice serve stats for Rafa. Converted both break point chances! Net points 3/4 for 75%. Hopefully Rafa will hit more winners in the second set.

    It’s so nice to see Rafa playing this way. Standing inside the baseline to hit his ROS!

  17. I think its curtains for Dimitrov, hard to see him coming back from the disappointment of losing the first set despite getting a good start, Nadal also has the advantage of serving first in 2nd set.

  18. I don’t know what’s up with Rafa being broken again in his first service game of the second set. He’s not happy. Rafa kind of banged his leg with the ball as he walked to the sidelines. Some inconsistency from Rafa in this match.

  19. I guess it’s not curtains for Dimitrov just yet. Rafa is playing very aggressive, but again at times being a bit sloppy with the errors. I don’t like seeing him lose the momentum after winning the first set. It’s not like Rafa to get broken early two sets in a row.

  20. Dimitrov’s been all over the place for most of this season but as we know only too well seeing Rafa the other side of the net makes players bring out their very best. Get prepared for a deciding set everybody..

  21. Nadal with 0-30, dimitrov wins 3 straight points, but Dimitrov with a weak backhand into the net and a double fault hands back 1 break to Nadal.

  22. Yes, this is true. Also, Rafa has been inconsistent today. Normally one would expect him to come out strong in the second set and try to finish it off.

    Rafa gets one break back. But this is looking like a third set.

  23. Dimitrov with 3 set points, he cant take the first, fails to convert on the 2nd but Nadal misses a 2nd serve return and Dimitrov has the 2nd set.

  24. I can’t remember when I have seen Rafa get broken in his first service game three sets in a row. This is frustrating to watch.

  25. some pressure as Nadal drops the first point on serve, he wins the next with a good serve to make it 15 all, a forehand long by Nadal and Dimitrov has a look at 15-30 a long rally goes to Nadal but Dimitrov has a bp, Nadal saves it with a forehand, Dimitrov has a 2nd Bp Nadal saves it with an overhead now Badal has a match point and he wins.

  26. It wasn’t pretty, but Rafa still got it done.

    A combined total of 69 errors in this one.

    Rafa won 13/14 net points! Unreal! Converting 5 out of 8 break chances.

    Serve stats looking good.

    I thought Rafa really brought it in that third set when he needed it most.

    Rafa moves on! 🙂

  27. Dimitrov didn’t play badly, he has improved lately but Rafa was just too good for him. Even though Rafa helped him by dropping his serve 4 times Dimi just didn’t have enough to beat Rafa.

  28. U.G.LY.

    This Rafa gonna have to find ways to improve if he’s gonna be the favorite against this Fed on this indoor court let alone anywhere anytime.

    Rafa’s lucky dimi was even uglier.

    He may have turned the corner but he hasn’t hit the stretch just yet. Not by a loong shot.

    We gonna see no?

  29. Diimitrov played HORRIBLY broken five times with 41 UEs.

    Rafa was ever so slightly less horrible (just lower case) broken four times with 28 UEs.

    Do people really think this Rafa is favourite against this Fed on any court anytime let alone on a fast indoor court?

  30. I prefer to think that Rafa found a way to win. It’s true that this was an ugly match. But winning ugly is also what it’s all about. Players aren’t always at their best and indoor hard courts have been challenging for Rafa. That’s why I think these wins are so important. If it’s tough, so what! As long as Rafa gets the win. It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last time that he gets an ugly win,

    Again I say, this is a match that Rafa would have lost a few months ago. So it’s still progress.

    • Why do people always make allowances for Stan when he loses. Did he make zero effort in the 2nd set as well or did Dr Ivo win that fair and square?

      When Rafa beat Stan in straight sets which many couldn’t see before the match, the excuse was that Stan wasn’t trying. Had Rafa lost everyone would have gone to town on his form. I’m not saying you would, ed, but you get the drift.

  31. Regarding the match, I only watched the first set. Rafa seemed to serve poorly and looked a bit slow but he somehow came back from behind to win the first set.

    Dimi is one player who always caused Rafa problems and all their matches needed to go the distance except their Rome match last year. However, Rafa always came out the winner and thats good enough imo. A win is a win, even the no.1 player this year had to win ugly several times, and the no.2 or 3 player lost in his first match at a Masters event. Rafa survives, and thats most important.

    Another day another match, Rafa survives to fight another day or some more days. Vamos Rafa!

    • Lucky,

      I assume that it’s you in the post @ 9:55 am because it sounds like you. If so, I am in complete agreement! Glad you see it that way, too! A win is a win is a win. So what if it wasn’t pretty. The other top players have had ugly wins many times. It’s just the way it is. As you said, Dimi has always given Rafa trouble in their matches. I don’t know why I didn’t think this one would go three sets, even with Dimi not being in his best form. He has the game to take it to Rafa, with his big serving and that powerful forehand. Rafa struggled in this match, getting broken in his first service games in all three sets. But the fact is that he came back to win the match!

  32. Regarding the match, I only watched the first set. Rafa seemed to serve poorly and looked a bit slow but he somehow came back from behind to win the first set.

    Dimi is one player who always caused Rafa problems and all their matches needed to go the distance except their Rome match last year. However, Rafa always came out the winner and thats good enough imo. A win is a win, even the no.1 player this year had to win ugly several times, and the no.2 or 3 player lost in his first match at a Masters event. Rafa survives, and thats most important.

    Another day another match, Rafa survives to fight another day or some more days. Vamos Rafa!

    • Agree, luckystar. IMO, winning this kind of match is more productive for Rafa whilst he is trying to regain his mental fortitude. He is proving that whatever he is doing to help his mental strength is working.

  33. I only saw the last game when Rafa was serving for the set…unfortunately I have my own trainings to conduct and cannot watch Rafa at 8 pm…I’m gonna watch the recording now but I think get pretty good picture reading your comments here…the fact is that Rafa had to fight hard yet again…I thought Dimi would cause problems so nothing new there…it’s important that Rafa keeps wining these matches…this year he had lost so many matches that he should have won…hope the wining pattern continues even if the wins are ungly sometimes…I can live with it… 🙂

    I still hold my opinion that Rafa must change his game…it becomes obvious that he can no longer rely on the baseline shots and has to change midway through the match in order to beat his opponents who suddenly seem to read through his current game…he said in one of his interviews that he is working on the changes and I believe him…

    I also notice Annacone is taking so much interest in Rafa, commenting on him and tweeting…I think he would make good second coach to Rafa joining efforts with Uncle T….please Toni consider it! I think it would pay off…

    Vamos Rafa!

    • re: Annacone. Not on board but acting as a consultant from time to time. In the on court interview last night Rafa admitted changing his style of play is causing him problems but he is perservering in the hope it will pay off next year.

      Rafa has always tended to start slowly and build momentum during the match. As far back as I remember he has also been prone to playing a decent first set then letting his opponent back into the match in the next.

      The positive from last night was the way he charged out for the last set and tamed Dimitrov. He was more aggressive, he found his first serve and he piled on the pressure to outplaly Dimitrov on every count – including winning 59% of the total points.

      It may have been ugly to watch, and Rafa was visibly disappointed he didn’t play better, but he is making progress slowly but surely. A few weeks ago he would almost certainly have lost that match.

  34. Yep, Rafa is trying to change some parts of his game; hes trying to hit flatter, trying to be more aggressive in his ROS and trying to move closer to the baseline but I feel he should step inside the court and also moves to the net more often and not just occassionally. Its still a WIP and I hope his intention is to one day plays more inside the court, the way Novak does if not mostly inside, the way how Fed does it.

    I keep mentioning how aggressive Rafa was when young and not afraid to move inside the court to attack esp on HCs but since his successes on clay from 2005 he had not been that aggressive anymore. I do hope he can be as aggressive as during his 2013 at least, and also makes more ventures to the net. I think Annacone is a good choice, he did help Fed to play more up the court during his stint as Fed’s coach. The difference in the way Fed played after getting in Annacone was obvious, as Fed did play more inside the court mid 2009 and after.

  35. Many tennis matches are won and lost on a knife edge. When Rafa lost to Raonic after failing to close out the match many praised Raonic and put Rafa down. The other day Rafa won against Rosol who was poised to win the match and he still gets criticised. Damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

      • Haha. Me actually and a bunch more. We were right of course. Early 2015 prior to more injuries, Raonic’s level peaked. He’d made many improvements under Ljubicic but has since regressed dramatically with injuries and will drop to No. 18 after pulling out of Paris next week. At the same time Rafa’s game had pretty much bottomed out and Raonic played an amazing third set.

        hawkeye63 says:
        March 21, 2015 at 1:30 am
        No. He played a excellent third set. He never would have won that match 12 months ago. Rafa played too passively doubting himself on break points and match points as I predicted and Milos grew stronger as the match progressed.

        Chris Fowler ✔ @cbfowler
        Raonic >> nervous Nadal in crucial moments. 3MP saved, crashes Big4 party in tomorrow’s semis. Milos stepped up. FedFans smiling.
        10:05 PM – 20 Mar 2015

        Ben Rothenberg @BenRothenberg
        Milos Raonic has made quarterfinals or better at 8 of last 10 Masters 1000 events. #believeinthesleeve #lamancheneflanchepas

        Juan José Vallejo @jjvallejoa
        Kinda amazed how much of a copy of the Brisbane SF that was. Raonic’s confidence grew so slowly…but irrepressibly. Like a tide.
        9:49 PM – 20 Mar 2015

  36. hawkeye, don’t you know that Ricky picked Federer over Wawrinka for the title in the tournament predictions? You weren’t around at the time so you must have missed it.

    • Well I just hope that you not comparing “picked” with “taking for granted”.

      Don’t you?
      Or do you.
      No you did.
      You just said that Ricky picking Stan to get to the final was taking his pick over Karlovic for granted.

      Ok. Good.

      (Hint: it’s not, it’s just a pick.)

  37. hawkeye, I refer you to my comment below:

    nadline10 says:
    October 25, 2015 at 9:04 pm
    “Stan has a bridge to cross in his first round match strewed with aces served by Dr Ivo from the top of a tree. Let’s see him cross that bridge first before we put him in the final. Stan leads their h2h 5:1 but every match was close.”

    • nadline, I refer you to Ricky’s comment below:

      Ricky Dimon says:
      October 28, 2015 at 3:02 pm
      i mean there is always some concern with Rafa these days, but I would far more worried about Stan facing Ivo

      There is a difference between “pick” and “take for granted”.

      But what you are doing is called a strawman argument as it is not what Ricky or anyone did.

      Don’t you? Or do you.

  38. A short description of the match on the tournament website:
    http://www.swissindoorsbasel.ch/de-de/News/All-News/ArtMID/3158/ArticleID/22589/Nadal-Stays-Perfect-Against-Dimitrov

    Excerpts:
    ¤¤ Nadal Stays Perfect Against Dimitrov.
    Rafael Nadal remained perfect against Grigor Dimitrov on Wednesday, outplaying the Bulgarian for the seventh straight time at the Swiss Open Basel 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.
    The highly anticipated second-round match-up between the former Basel quarter-finalists saw the 24-year-old Dimitrov get out of the blocks in a hurry, breaking his No. 3-seeded opponent to open the match. But Nadal would equalise with a break in the eighth game, reeling off nine of 12 points to level the set at 4-all when a Dimitrov transition volley failed to clear the net. …
    Nadal, who improved to 54-17 on the year, has shown some steely resolve in back-to-back matches, having rallied from 1-6, 3-5 down on Monday to defeat Lukas Rosol 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4)…¤¤

  39. The issue is how Rafa lost to Raonic. That is a match that Rafa would have and should have won. There is a reason why Rafa has never lost to Raonic. But that was earlier this year, when Rafa was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, when he was losing matches he would normally win. He had every chance to win that match, but this was to be a pattern that would be repeated in other losses, notably to Fog especially in Rio and then most painfully in the USO. We should keep in mind that up to that point, Rafa had never lost a slam match when he was up two sets. Then there was the loss to Verdasco, a guy who hasn’t beaten Rafa since Madrid when they had that blue ice skating rink surface.

    I always believed that Rafa being his normal self would have beaten Raonic, no question. It’s true that matches can turn on a knife edge and that’s the point. When it’s that close, Rafa is the one who ends up winning. He’s built his brilliant career on winning matches by a hair or winning when he should have lost. That’s part of his greatness.

    Now that Rafa is coming back. We are seeing him win matches that he would surely have lost a few months ago. That singular quality of refusing to lose, willing himself to win, has now reappeared. It’s a good thing! 🙂

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