It’s not like a 17-time Grand Slam champion is going to lose much sleep over World Tour Finals qualification in the 16th year of his illustrious career, but it would offer the chance for a decent ending to what has been an otherwise disappointing season. Roger Federer can make progress toward a London berth when he takes the court for just the second time since the U.S. Open this week at the Swiss Indoors Basel.
Federer headlines a strong field that is now missing Rafael Nadal following the world No. 1’s withdrawal, but along with Federer it still boasts Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Richard Gasquet. Meanwhile, an arguably even more intriguing draw from top to bottom at the Valencia Open includes David Ferrer and Tommy Haas.
Swiss Indoors Basel
Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,988,835 Euros
Top seed: Juan Martin Del Potro
Defending champion: Juan Martin Del Potro
Draw analysis: Federer’s chances for a sixth Basel title improved tenfold when Nadal pulled out earlier this week, and the draw certainly did nothing to diminish those chances. The No. 3 seed’s fellow seeds in the bottom half of the bracket are Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov. Berdych has been dealing with a minor back problem, Nishikori is far from his best at the moment, and Dimitrov has to make a quick turnaround in the aftermath of Sunday’s Stockholm title match. Federer will first open with Adrian Mannarino, whom he destroyed 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 at this summer’s U.S. Open. Berdych, on the other hand, faces a potentially brutal road with Ivo Karlovic in the first round and either Vasek Pospisil or Vienna runner-up Robin Haase in the last 16.
Switzerland’s No. 2 player, Wawrinka, also has favorable draw. He is in by far the weakest section of the bracket; one that also is home to Andreas Seppi (arguably the weakest of the eight seeds), Daniel Brands, and Edouard Roger-Vasselin—who will face Wawrinka in round one and is coming off a retirement in a Moscow quarterfinal match against Seppi. Del Potro, the 2012 champ, will have a good chance to make another run with his nearest seed—Gasquet—making a quick trip to Basel right after winning the Moscow title. The Argentine could meet a still-slumping Marcos Baghdatis in the second round.
First-round upset alert: Radek Stepanek over (8) Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov’s career is still young, but he has never fared well in the department of sustained success. He can get hot one week then lose to anyone on tour the next. The Bulgarian will be trying to post back-to-back awesome weeks after upsetting Ferrer on Sunday. Dimitrov will have to get right back in gear against Stepanek, whose aggressive style often works well on indoor hard courts. The Czech advanced two rounds in Valencia before losing to Haas–the eventual champion–in a competitive quarterfinal.
Hot: Juan Martin Del Potro, Stanislas Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Kenny De Schepper, Denis Istomin, Vasek Pospisil
Cold: Roger Federer, Marcos Baghdatis, Horacio Zeballos
Quarterfinal predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Richard Gasquet, Stanislas Wawrinka over Andreas Seppi, Roger Federer over Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Ivan Dodig over Vasek Pospisil
Semifinals: Del Potro over Wawrinka and Federer over Dodig
Final: Del Potro over Federer
[polldaddy poll=7491644]
Valencia Open 500
Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,171,095 Euros
Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: David Ferrer
Draw analysis: The intrigue in Basel comes with a handful of World Tour Finals contenders and some potential blockbuster matchups during the final weekend. Valencia’s story is a much different one. The field is not as top-heavy as that in Basel, but it makes for intriguing matchups right from the start. Among the first-round showdowns are Ferrer vs. Gael Monfils, John Isner vs. Ernests Gulbis, Mikhail Youzhny vs. Bernard Tomic, and Haas vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber.
To say Ferrer drew the shortest end of the stick would be an understatement. Not only does he have to play Monfils immediately after a title-winning run in Stockholm, but he could also face either Feliciano Lopez or Julien Benneteau in the second round and Jerzy Janowicz in the quarterfinals. If there is a weak spot in the draw, it is the second section—and to a lesser extent the third. A semifinal spot is wide open for either Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Verdasco and the Isner-Gulbis winner will also have a great chance to reach the last four.
First-round upset alert: Gael Monfils over (1) David Ferrer. Monfils has a lot going for him heading into this one, although one of those factors certainly isn’t a recent first-round Vienna loss to Jaroslav Pospisil. But that appears to be more of an aberration than the rule for the Frenchman, who is healthy and heating up this fall. Ferrer, meanwhile, is coming off a long week in Stockholm after losing the title match there to Dimitrov. Monfils is already 3-1 lifetime against Ferrer, so he has to feel good about his chances of making it four out of five.
Hot: Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, Ernests Gulbis, Mikhail Youzhny
Cold: Jerzy Janowicz, Kevin Anderson, Janko Tipsarevic, Martin Klizan, Bernard Tomic
Quarterfinal predictions: Jerzy Janowicz over Julien Benneteau, Nicolas Almagro over Marcel Granollers, Ernests Gulbis over Dmitry Tursunov, and Mikhail Youhny over Benoit Paire
Semifinals: Almagro over Janowicz over Youzhny over Gulbis
Final: Almagro over Youzhny
[polldaddy poll=7491650]
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
‘Ferrer, meanwhile, is coming off a long week in Basel’
………… long week in Stockholm
fixed
thanks!
I am rooting for Ferrer. I want him and A.Murray to be No. 3 & 4 in the Race.
My tin foil hat tells me, the guys, who are responsible for the Basel draw, have gone to the drawing board and have masterfully designed a draw, which all but ensures Roger’s qualification for the WTF. 🙂
^^^
+1
#Humb1e
NID. They had no choice.
Did Pseudofed make them an offer, they could’t refuse? Breaking bad?
For anybody who was not aware, or has forgotten, this is the background to the Federer-Basel saga:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ofuzc7q
littlefoot,
Your tinfoil hat may be right, and perhaps this is a form of partial payment in addition to an appearance fee that as a result is allowed to be lower than 7 figures
I know, this sounds conspirational cynical and nasty, but the facts that we do know beg the question…
set Fed
chloro, I was trying to be cheeky, and had quoted from “The Godfather I”, when “an offer, they couldn’t refuse” included a severed, bloody horse’s head thrown on white sheets, lol! Then I read the article from ed’s link and smirked, when the word’s “offer” and “refuse” featured prominently. But me and my tin foil hat have become very cynical, when it comes to draws. What about the “American QuarterFedal Syndrome” this year? On the American continent, Fed and Rafa seemed to be doomed to meet in the quarterfinals this year, since every tourney wanted Fedal one more time. The chances for this happening four times in a row are 256:1, which is still in the realm of being unsuspicious, but still… And believe me, there are many practical ways to manipulate a draw. Maybe, that’s the criminologist in me, always suspecting the worst, but I’m ver allergic to labelling all thoughts in this direction as conspiracy theories. Where money and reputation and possibility and lack of control is involved, cheating is bound to happen from time to time, especially this kind of low level cheating. I’m not accusing Fed here, it’s more the organizers and maybe Peudofed, whom I’m suspicious of. But this draw is really too convenient for Fed, since his rivals for an WTF entry are forced to eliminate each other, while he doesn’t face anyone of consequence before the quarters. Maybe, I”m silly, but if the season is over, I can give you a few foolproof methods, how to manipulate even a public draw ceremony. Maybe, we should ask James Randi, to have a look at it, lol!
+1
:like:
#TrustNo1
#T-Xfiles
Pete Bodo explains how Fed must defend his points to make the WTF.
http://espn.go.com/blog/peter-bodo/post/_/id/484/pressure-squarely-on-roger-federer
#NewMaths
I am so bored with all the hand wringing in the Fed-sphere about whether he will or will not qualify for the WTF. For me, the best outcome would be for Fed to “qualify” as an alternate. Yes, have Fed cooling his heels, twiddling his thumbs waiting for the phone to wring…………………….
littlefoot,
yes, that line from The Godfather I is probably its best known line. And that scene with the horse’s head is hard to forget. I was mostly just joking of course esp regarding the appearance fee, yet like you and many others, wouldn’t put it past the organizers to make the draw more appealing to certain interests. And yes, there is a lot of money involved in each tournament and the strong temptations to further increase potential profits are always there.
And yet I was not entirely joking when asking how it is that Fed and Basel came to an understanding when last year he would have, apparently, only if 7 figures were offered to appear. Likely Roger’s desire to save face and make sure to be in the WTF tournament was a good part of the reason. Still, last year he apparently wanted 7 figures, more than the lifetime savings of most families on the planet, so what was acceptable as an appearance fee 12 months later?
You mentioned that you used to read TT but due to the country selection issue did not register to add comments. You will remember we used to make similar remarks until some time into 2011 about Fed and Novak always being on the same half of the draw, some 13 times in a row if memory serves, with the chance of that happening if every single one of the 13 draw was random being one in 8192.
Most importantly, please _do_ tell us of those foolproof methods. After all these years of well-founded suspicions, I’d love to hear them and probably many others would do. Why does it have to wait until the season is over? You probably have a good reason for that… if so, no worries, we’ll wait.
Thanks for your detailed answer. When I have time, et’s talk about it some more. Good, that it’s possible here. On most sites, subjects like that get shot down pretty quickly.
Fed got off relatively easy. Nothing in the first two rounds and a tired BabyFed potentially in the 3rd (if he makes it that far).
Then potentially Berdy, but as you say, not an easy path “planned” for Berdy to get to Fed.
Berdy could “magically” have to face three hard hitters in Ivo, Pospisil and Dodig. Funny how none of them were “randomly” thrown into Fed’s section lol.
All of the real opposition to Fed – Delpo, Wawrinka and Gasquet were magically placed in the opposite half.
To top it off, Fed played his first match today and Delpo doesn’t play until Wednesday.
Hilarious!!!
Damit where’s holdserve to back me up on all of this???
hawkeye, I’m not holdserve, but I had exactly the same thoughts re: Birdman and the hard hitters. Will be interesting to see, if Dimitrov will be able to throw a spanner into this carefully designed scenario.
the last of these issues is the most ridiculous.
really, really, really bad.
Why is is a shock that Fed has another easy draw at Basel? So what else is new? He’s been getting easy draw in Masters and slams for some time now. The problem is that Fed can’t beat even these guys. So they set it up for him to win Basel? I still think Delpo is going to have something to say about it.
I also don’t know about Dimitrov being tired after winning his first title. That should invigorate him and fill him with renewed confidence. The key is not tiredness, it’s lack of consistency with these guys. I say let’s wait and see how Dimitrov looks in Basel.
I am really over the conspiracy theories. I also don’t care about what it will take for Fed to qualify for WTF.
who is shocked?
^indeed: no one.
Still fun to point it all out. Amusing enough on a rainy Monday 🙂
quite
#Humb1e
It’s nothing new. That was my point.
Hello people! I missed you all so much! I am so excited to be with you again! When Rafa conquered New York again it brought tears in my eyes…At that moment I had such a huge need to share joy and happiness with my tennistalk gang 🙂
It’s great to be back!!!
welcome!
natashao,
So nice to see you here! I have been wondering where you were!
I welcome you with open arms! 🙂
Hey @natashao2013, good to see you! Slowly but surely the ol’ TT gang is finding its way here! Good stuff……………
Hello people! Great to see you here again. When Rafa conquered New York again it brought tears in my eyes…I instantly had a need to share the joy with my tennistalk gang…you can’t imagine how much this means to me…back to life…:)
Vamos Rafa!
Glad you finally made it over to Grandstand 🙂
What took you so long?
Note: There is a a special thread for gossiping. At the top of this page in the green banner you’ll see SOCIAL click on this then on the non-tennis forum.
There was a follow up to the spat, when Brennwald was forced to grovel,
that I had completely forgotten about:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/c352qc3
#EatingHumblePie
Hi everybodyguys, Just came back from the movie ‘Gravity’, and my head is literally still spinning, and I’m a bit space sick. I expected everybody being all over me for being a conspiracy theorist, as I used to be all over those guys a couple of years ago. I’m glad, it ain’t so. We are apparently all wearing the same brand of tin foil heads. 🙂
I remember your discussions from tt. A mathematician has written a publication about the likelyhood of draw manipulations in pro tennis a couple of years ago. She was using the data, you were discussing at tt. If I have some time, I will go to the social room here and discuss this. I talked about the practical side with some pro magicians, I know (not the Gandalf kind, more the Copperfield sort of people, though not famous in any way). We did some brainstorming, and analyzed different scenarios. There are really some very simple tricks out there, no skills needed at all. That said, just because it’s possible, doesn’t mean, it’s done all the time, and all draws are fake.
#NTF
Is ‘NTF’ for ‘No Tin Foil’ or ‘New Tin Foil’ ?
Fed still bringing up the darkness excuse for 2008 Wimby loss to Rafa…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=72oMrsByKpM#t=256
Good thing Rafa was wearing his infrared contact lenses.
At 5:15 he says that it was not the most crushing loss of his life. (2nd most maybe)
#GodItsKillingMe!!!
Roger even mentioned the darkness during the awards ceremony in 2008 Wimby. I went back and watched the ceremony and he managed to devote all of two sentences to Rafa, saying that Rafa was a deserving champ and played a fantastic game, never once actually directly congratulating him. By contrast, in Rafa’s speech, Rafa spent about half of it talking about what a great champion Roger is. As for the Australian Open finals ceremony, I remember thinking “Geez, Roger, can you just let Rafa have his moment?” With the exception of thanking the sponsors, his team, and so on, the rest of Rafa’s speech was once again about what a great champion Roger is. I’ve often wondered if Rafa’s complete deference toward Roger contributes to Roger’s sometimes perplexing mental acquiescence to Rafa while they’re playing, as if Roger is unable to muster enough fighting spirit against his younger conqueror who will never admit to his own superiority.
^^^ 4:15 for the ’08 Wimby remarks.
I’m just having fun. Not a bad interview with TMF TBH LOLZ TTFN.
Two examples of a trick he often employs. i.e. when he feigns forgetfulness in order to appear modest.
.
He does it at 4.4l searching for the 5th set scoreline – as if it were not seared on his memory. And again at 5.25 when he says he cant remember whether it was five or six Wimbys he had already won.
#PullTheOtherLeg
What’s a good reminder of human nature is that this behaviour of Fed’s you are pointing out… several examples just in that one interview…. is common for him over the years, and really not hard to see… if you are willing to see it. Yet so many people out there, the majority of people who follow tennis if I’m not mistaken, apparently do not see it… at all.
One of the most useful stories ever written is (to me) and one of my favorite ones: …. The Emperor’s New Clothes.
natashao:
so good to have you back!
Thanks guys! Lovely feeling to be here again! I have to thank Ricky for letting me know about this new initiative! Great website indeed…I am getting used to it and I love the gossip part too. 🙂
have to do some work now but will be around. I wished I had you all near me when I cherished Rafa’s successes…it is more to come…and there will be times for more celebrations for all of us…
Welcome back, nats.
welcome back natashao 🙂
Why did not the top 8 seeds get a bye in the first rounds???
Several 250/500 level events have no byes. Depends on the draw size.
If I’m not mistaken, most if not all 1000 level tournaments have byes.
in a 32-man draw the most that ever get byes are the Top 4 seeds. Never 8.
but it’s terrible when even 4 get byes in a such a small draw
Was there any TV coverage for the first day? I suspect not. If that were the case then why was Federer on court on Monday – it can’t have been to keep the TV companies happy and if the early attendances were anything to go by very few seats had been sold either.
Conclusion: to give Federer a gentle warm up and then a day’s rest between 1R and 2R and again between 2R and QFs.
#Sycophancy
ed,
some animals are more equal
always
#sorryfortorepeatmyselfsayagain
Youzhny in the Valencia final
#CongratulationsToMe