Barcelona R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Fognini, Kohlschreiber vs. Paire

Paire 3Rafael Nadal will hope to avenge a loss from earlier this season when he goes up against Fabio Fognini during third-round action on Thursday in Barcelona. Philipp Kohlschreiber and Benoit Paire are also looking for a spot in the quarterfinals.

(13) Fabio Fognini vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Fognini will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this season when they clash in round three of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in Nadal’s favor, but Fognini got on the scoreboard a few months ago on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro in the form of a 1-6, 6-2, 7-5 upset. Nadal has still won two of their three encounters on the slow stuff, having previously prevailed 6-1, 6-3 two years ago in Rome and 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-4 shortly thereafter at the French Open.

Unfortunately for Fognini, this may not be the same Nadal that was on display in Rio. The fourth-ranked Spaniard lost early in Indian Wells and Miami, but he played better in Monte-Carlo (despite succumbing to Novak Djokovic 6-3, 6-3 in the semifinals) and crushed Nicolas Almagro 6-3, 6-1 in his Barcelona opener on Wednesday. Fognini also benefited from a first-round bye before battling past Andrey Rublev 3-6, 6-4, 6-1. The 13th-seeded Italian is just 7-9 for his 2015 campaign and this is first trip past a second round since Rio. With Nadal picking up confidence and Fognini lacking in the same department, this should be routine.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Benoit Paire vs. (12) Philipp Kohlschreiber

Kohlschreiber and Paire will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Thursday. Their first showdown was their most memorable; in round two of the 2012 U.S. Open, Kohlschreiber broke back at 5-6 in the deciding set and ultimately survived 6-7(4), 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(4). The German once lead their head-to-head series 2-0, but Paire has since won two in a row with victories at the 2013 Indian Wells Masters (6-4, 6-2) and a few months later at the Masters event in Montreal (7-6(1), 7-5).

The Frenchman could not have asked for a better draw so far in Barcelona. He disposed of qualifier Jaume Munar 6-2, 6-2 in his opener before recovering from a slow start against an ice-cold Ernests Gulbis to roll 1-6, 6-2, 6-3. Kohlschreiber is slumping with a 6-8 record for the year and he has not yet won back-to-back matches at any event. The world No. 25 got the best of Andrey Kuznetsov 7-6(1), 6-3 during second-round action. This could go either way, but Kohlschreiber plays with a high margin of error and will be able to extend points long enough on clay in order to expose the Paire forehand.

Pick: Kohlschreiber in 3

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33 Comments on Barcelona R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Fognini, Kohlschreiber vs. Paire

  1. First Ferru, then Mugro, next Fabio.

    Rafa exercising his self-doubt demons one-by-one on the road to recovery. Destination: RG10!!!

    Rafa in two losing less than eight games.

    (BTW, congrats to Me on My Rafa in 2 losing less than eight games vs Mugro today.)

  2. It’s great to see Rafa getting victories against the guys who beat him. One by one. But I thought Almagro kind of quit or lost the plot in the second set. He seems to just go away mentally.

    The British tennis channel commentators were discussing where Rafa’s game is at right now. One of them said that he thinks Rafa is about 70-80%, not at his best yet. He also said that he still needs to work on his focus and concentration. I thought that was a fair assessment.

    I am picking Rafa to win in two sets losing 8-10 games.

    I also like Kohls over Paire in three sets.

  3. I think Parie will at the very least give Kolschreiber a challenging match. Sure, Parie’s two wins when he was at his peak and top career ATP ranking(24), but Kolschreiber’s wins came while he was at his career peak in 2012. If I had to make a pick, I would take Kohls in three sets, as he has been a force to reckon with this season. I certainly wouldn’t be putting any money on this one, though. Kohls is always dangerous on clay, and holds a .625 winning percentage in the last 52 weeks. I bet there will be at least one tiebreaker today, Parie is looking like he could push into the top 50 this year if he continues to play so well.
    kohls in 3

  4. yeah, I was right in predicting Rafa to beat Almagro in less than 7 games…Fognini is the one Rafa should have destroyed last time they met…it was Rafa’s lack of confidence which donated Fog the victory…this time around Rafa should exercise his powers against the “neurotic”‘ Italian and should beat him losing 3-4 games…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Vamos Rafa!

  5. and it is amazing how everyone LIVES for the victory over Rafa…beating Rafa almost equals wining a slam nowadays… 🙂

  6. In earnest, I think that goes the same for all top players, everybody does what they can to beat them. Somehow Rafa seems the most accessible at first glance because of his natural tendency to become defensive rather than aggressive

    • So, @Shireling1, what you are saying is: other players approach Nole, Fed, Murray etc with the mindset that they expect to lose to them because they are naturally aggressive, and they approach a match against Rafa thinking they have a chance because Rafa is naturally defensive?

      Doesn’t make sense to me. Novak and Murray are also naturally defensive players in my opinion. Novak and Rafa are good at turning defence into attack that is why they are both the best. Also, Rafa is the one with the best H2H against the field, not Novak, Fed or Murray, so he (Rafa) can’t be that accessible can he?

      No, I think it’s a question of value. Rafa’s scalp is the most valuable to have because he has proven to be the most difficult to beat.

  7. Yes, Ferrer is going to make that fellow suffer 🙂
    rafaisthebest, I think other players will always make a stronger effort to beat the top players, regardless.
    I’m not sure what has more value. If you talk about this season I’d say a win against Novak is more valuable than against Rafa. I’m just trying to see it from my point of view, trying to imagine whom I’d rather play against if I were a pro tennis player ( :)) and I’d chose Rafa. Even though what you say is true (I guess) I’d still feel I have a better chance against Rafa but that’s just my personal opinion.

    • Obviously this year so far, yes I agree, I would imagine players would rather face Rafa than Novak. Which means, other players feel this is their best chance to get that elusive win against Rafa because they know he is not yet 100%. Which to me is a compliment to Rafa, menaing they know how tough he is to beat when 100% and also how valuable beating him is.

  8. Bet you this will not be the Ferru facing Rafa tomorrow, he will clean up his act and be super-concentrated playing Rafa.

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