In a rematch of the 2018 French Open title tilt, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will battle for a place in the Barcelona final on Saturday. The other semifinal in the bottom half of the bracket pits Kei Nishikori against Daniil Medvedev.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (3) Dominic Thiem
Novak Djokovic may have something to say about it over the next six weeks, but Nadal vs. Thiem could once again be the best “rivalry” of the clay-court swing. They will face each other for the 12th time in their careers and for the first time this season when they square off in the semis of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Saturday afternoon. Nadal and Thiem collided three times during last year’s dirt season, with the Spaniard prevailing in Monte-Carlo (6-0, 6-2) and at Roland Garros (6-4, 6-3, 6-2) while the Australian pulled off an upset in Madrid (7-5, 6-3). Their most memorable encounter came a few months later at the U.S. Open, where Nadal survived a 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) thriller to improve to 8-3 in the head-to-head series.
The world No. 2 failed to capture a 12th title in Monte-Carlo, but he also has a chance to accomplish that feat in Barcelona. Nadal has improved to a ridiculous 61-3 lifetime at this tournament with victories over Leonardo Mayer, David Ferrer, and Jan-Lennard Struff. Thiem, who also underwhelmed last week, is through to the final four following defeats of Diego Schwartzman, Jaume Munar, and Guido Pella. The third seed has a real chance in this one if he plays like he did in the second set against Pella, but Nadal’s record in Barcelona (the 61-3 overall mark plus 36-1 in his last 37 sets) cannot be overlooked.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=10304858]
(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (7) Daniil Medvedev
Nishikori and Medvedev will be meeting for the fourth time in their careers and for the fourth time in the past 13 months. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Nishikori, who prevailed 7-5, 6-2 last spring in Monte-Carlo and 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 earlier this season in the Brisbane final. Medvedev scored a 6-2, 6-4 victory for the Tokyo title last fall.
Although Nishikori has cooled off of late, his 2019 campaign includes his Brisbane title and a quarterfinal performance at the Australian Open. The world No. 7 from Japan has advanced this week by beating Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Roberto Carballes Baena. Medvedev represents a steep step up in competition, as the 23-year-old Russian registers at 14th in the rankings thanks in part to a 24-7 match record this season. Medvedev has the edge in current form and he also has to be feeling confident based on his recent efforts against Nishikori.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
[polldaddy poll=10304859]
WWW?
I honestly can’t bring myself to pick against Rafa Nadal in a match played on “Pista Rafa Nadal”… I’m not being naive- I know that Thiem has a very good shot at winning. However, I predicted on here before clay started that Rafa would only lose 1 match on clay, just like last year. He’s already lost that 1 match, so I gotta roll with Rafa! 🤷♂️ Also, I just feel like Barcelona is truly Rafa’s tournament- even more so than Monte Carlo. I just have the feeling that Rafa will come out and make a statement win. The last two clay seasons, Rafa has easily dispatched of Thiem in their first meeting on this surface. If Thiem is going to beat Rafa this year, I think it will more likely be in Madrid or Rome. I will admit that this is the weakest Rafa has looked going into a match against Thiem on clay since they played at Monte Carlo 2016. Every time since then, Rafa has been the supreme ruler of clay going into their matches. Tomorrow is a little different for Thiem. If he is smart, he will use it to his advantage tomorrow and come out playing with pirposenand poise. Afterall, though, I still gotta roll with the King- in straight sets.
If Rafa doesn’t stay at the baseline but tries to lure Thiem to the net, he’ll have better chances of beating Thiem. It’s not a winning strategy staying at the baseline to rally with Thiem as we could see howThiem weathered the storm against Pella’s hard hitting from the baseline.
Thiem is also very fit so he could rally the whole day without getting tired. Rafa has to use all his court craft, his counterpunching abilities to beat Thiem.
I think this is Thiem’s time. He has really raised his level in the last few matches, and he has the shots to control the baseline rallies. His FH has been devastating and his kick serve to the ad court has been very effective.
Rafa has played much better the last two matches, but his forehand has not been the dominating shot it was on clay for the last two years. Basically, right now he doesn’t have the weapons that Thiem does. Nadal has to serve like he did against Struff and be more aggressive with his groundies. But it will be very hard if Thiem is on his game, since he may hit the heaviest shots on the tour. Thiem in 3.
Thiem and Medvedev
Looking forward to these 2 matches.
Nishikori has played a lot better but sense Medvedev’s superior form will prevail. You just can’t click your fingers and beat everyone at this level.
However, Nishikori class and historically good form at Barcelona should make this a tight contest.
Medevedev in 3
Similarly, Theim has improved significantly but I think it will be one tournament too early to take down the king of clay even though Nadal’s form heading into Barcelona wasnt great either.
Nadal in 3.
I wana watch a thiem , nishikori final!!! lets go!
Medvedev was a beast serving for that set.
Medvedev has a high tennis IQ
20 years ago,another Medvedev reached the RG final ,could it happen again?
Lol
not out of the question
But maybe this Medvedev wouldn’t lose the RG final form 2 sets to love and a break up? Although, similar to how 1999 Medvedev was facing one of the greatest players of all-time in that final, it wouldn’t be a shock for current Medvedev to lose the RG final from 2-0 up if he were facing Rafa or Novak! However, I could be totally wrong about this, but I really believe that the next Roland Garros champion not named Nadal or Djokovic will be Dominic Thiem. Medvedev could prove me wrong eventually, but there’s just no denying that Thiem is the best clay courter we’ve seen in some time, outside of Rafa/Novak/Stan.
Yes, Thiem is .What a performance this week.
Just thinking it would be a coincidence if we had another Medvedev in the RG final exactly 20 years later .
But losing from such a winning position in major finals does happen to great champions ,as well as one-off finalists.
Sorry I didnt see “another’. Thought you were joking.
Clutch tennis
Rafa’s problem: court position, and his serve. He’s hitting his balls so short because he’s staying so far away from the baseline! Thiem could just step inside the court so often to take advantage of that.
Every service game of Rafa is a torture for him and his fans! Come on Rafa, why are you going FHCC all the time when you’re standing so far back allowing Thiem to step in to hit all those angles with his CCBH? It’s like Rafa vs Fed 2017 all over again; just go DTL with the FH for once please!
Why do you think he doesnt go down the line more with his forehand, Lucky? I’ve wondered the same thing myself for a while now. When he is using that forehand down the line, he is so much tougher to handle.
You saw the last point in his service game? When his back was against the wall then he finally hit one and it’s a winner! See how poor Rafa’s strangely is today?
The way Thiem is hitting that BH, and the way Rafa stands way behind the baseline, hitting short CCFH, you know it won’t work for Rafa.
*strategy.
Hitting angled shots is one essential ingredient of the recipe to beat Nadal on clay. It counters Rafa’s tactic of standing so far back, but you need a baseline game like Thiem’s even to try it, and even then, did you see how many lines he hit today? He played at an extremely high level.
If Rafa steps forward, he gets out hit by Thiem’s more powerful shots. It’s fine to advise him to hit down the line, but trying to hit winners down the line from anywhere is not easy. From 2 meters back of the baseline, it’s a very high-risk shot, not one that will pay off in the long run.
Nobody says Rafa has to hit DTL shots from so far back! I’m saying he should step inside the court more often, and then hit some DTL shots. It’s obvious he’s hitting very short because he’s standing so far back!
It not like he hadn’t the time or opportunities to move inside the court, but he chose to stay back to hit his shorter shots, sticking to a strategy that clearly didn’t work today.
He’s no longer young and so he couldn’t hit with depth standing so far back especially during long rallies. Against Struff, points were short so he need not hit consecutive penetrating shots all the time during the short rallies. Against Thiem, he’s simply being overpowered.
Heavy sweating when pressure is on and just 17 degrees. So many short balls.
Similar to Monte Carlo.
Anxiety is back.
Sadly you’re right Hawks. As I was saying yesterday, I am convinced Rafa will quit tennis in the near future but nobody else agrees with me,
Hi ed! Missing all of our chats with you, VR, rc, RITB and so many more.
Only physical or mental demons can stop Rafa but he has been affected by both so far this year.
Cheers!
Same here! I usually keep a low profile at this time of the year because I spend much of the winter with my sister in Spain – Normandy in the winter lacks charm! Sis comes here in the summer to escape the influx of summer tourists and the intense heatwave. A good arrangement n’est pas?
Hello ED. How’s the North of Spain for a balanced living climate wise? I think it may be good, because winters are not as cold as other parts of Europe and summers not as hot as Madrid, Sevilla, Malaga etc. Thinking to visit San Sebastian and Bilbao and choose a place to buy a house maybe at some point…
Very nice sounding arrangement indeed ed!
Never been to Madrid but I love Barcelona and the coast the few times I’ve been fortunate to visit.
Cheers Hawkie! nice to see you posting 😀
Tsame rc! 🙂
Hope you are well, darling 🙂
Get in my Jalep bracket – there’s just a few of us not – I need you 😀 Mira Andy is gone.
What happened to MA?
All well with me. Hope the tsame for you. Too busy with IRL stuffs to post much these days.
I’ll look at your pool for Rome and RG if I can find some time. 🙂
#ImpeachRussianAgentOrange
Simply too good from Dominic Thiem today. Rafa played well overall, he served very well, and in fact the match was very high quality. But he got outgunned from the baseline. Nadal was basically playing a younger, stronger, right handed version of himself. Well done, Dominic!
Hello, Rafa didn’t serve well! Five DFs and only one ace; compared to Thiem’s five aces and one DF. His second serve is also horrible and he only managed to win 40+% of those.
In fact Rafa’s serve is his main problem, followed by his poor court position. He’s hitting all the short balls allowing Thiem to step in to hit winners all over the place.
Thiem serves big and hits hard and time and again painting the lines. Thiem played very well, not missing much, just like Foggy in MC.
So we will have a new champion after all these years. Congrats to Thiem for this win, but Medvedev may be tougher to beat than Rafa, because he has a big solid serve, and he’s a hard hitter too.
I’m afraid Thiem has already played his best match here, and may have a let down in the final, like Madrid 2018 when he beat Rafa in the QF and then lost it in the final to Sasha, or Rome 2017 when he beat Rafa and lost meekly to Djoko. I really don’t think he can replicate this performance again on the next day.
I disagree. It was a hard match, but he won in straights. And he has been playing great tennis this whole tournament. Medvedev is a solid player, but he doesn’t have the best court coverage at his height, and I think Thiem will take advantage. Maybe he will have a let down, but I think he’s reached the point (4 wins on clay vs. Rafa) that he knows he has a good chance to beat him and won’t let it overwhelm him. He knows his goal is to win the tournament. I say Thiem in 2 in the final.
Deserved win for Thiem! He played excellent match!
Rafa lost to one who outplayed him in every corner!
Well, Rafa is progressing slowly but he is progressing! His game was better than MC, although those DFs were quite depressing, but overall considering how strong Thiem was, Rafa was not that bad! His FH is not there yet which is his main issue, but he will get there!
I repeat, coming back from multiple injuries and aging is not simple and each time it requires more efforts from Rafa! I hope he will be ready for RG! The rest does not matter! Call me crazy, but I tend to find something positive in this loss: Rafa will have one grueling final less! With this pace Rafa should be competitive enough to win the title in Rome!
Vamos Champ! Just keep building up your game and the rest will follow!
I like your positivity, Nats.
I think if it’s so bad, at least I hope that it’s a repeat of 2014, and not 2015! In 2014, he lost in consecutive tournaments – MC and Barcelona – and then barely won Madrid and lost the Rome final to Djoko, but he won the FO.
He needs to find that aggressive game of 2017; I don’t remember Rafa playing from so far back behind the baseline throughout his matches in 2017. He would step inside the court, moved to the net whenever possible, unlike this present Rafa. I think Rafa has to play like 2017, now that he’s two years older! Don’t go back to old way of playing, ie covering so much court playing from so far back!
Lack of confidence is the only issue. He was gradually bridging that the confidence deficit in this match and ALMOST did it in that last service game. His level was better in the second set and apart from some unusual mistakes, he was good. Dominic is a monster on clay. His game is perfect for this surface and it is a matter of time that he wins RG.
I still think Rafa will be too much for him at RG based on what I saw today. As long as Rafa stays healthy, he can build soem confidence in Rome hopefully and peak in RG.
I prefer these straight set losses rather than those gruelling 3-set marathon losses for the sake of Rafa’s body. However, it is also true that these losses dent his confidence. I do feel, however, that today’s win will give him real hope that his tennis is right up there and he needs to have more faith.
This wasn’t a bad loss in my opinion seeing how the second set unfolded .
I agree with you, VR, that I would still pick Rafa if they met at RG, without hesitation. I still just don’t have belief in Thiem that he can handle the pressure well enough in the absolute biggest moments. He obviously made a huge step in beating Fed in a close final at IW, but that isn’t even close to the pressure he feels at RG. And every time he scores one of these great wins over Rafa on clay, the more pressure it will put on him to do it at RG. I was impressed by how composed Thiem stayed in that final service game. It’s actually been a pattern when Thiem faces Rafa- he very often fails to serve out sets/matches. It shows that he clearly gets a bit rattled when he knows he is just 4 points away from beating the unstoppable clay force. Unlike the other times, though, Thiem did well to gather himself and fight to serve it out. Previously he would have meekly been broken back. However, doing that at RG is WHOOOOLOOLE other animal. By the time RG comes around, if he faces Rafa, the pressure will be higher than it has ever been for him. Rafa, on the other hand, knows he comparatively has nothing to lose because he’s won it 11 freakin’ times! Obviously there is no longer any question that Thiem is absolutely good enough to topple Rafa at RG, in terms of tennis. But the mental factor is just so massive at the majors, and Thiem will always know in the back of his mind that ever time he has faced Rafa at RG, Rafa always made him look like a Challenger-level player. And I just can’t assume that Thiem will overcome that massive mental elephant in his head until I actually see him do it.
In 2017, we saw Thiem absolutely destroy Novak in the QF, and many of us thought that this would help Thiem have belief that he could bring it on the next round against Rafa. But while I am certain that Rafa would have beaten Thiem that day no matter how well Thiem played, there is no denying that Thiem absolutely wet the bed if we compare it to the supreme confidence he displayed the round before against the defending champ. And that is because simply stepping onto Stade Roland Garros with Rafa put the absolute “ fear of god” in him. Well, until further notice, that god is still Rafa Nadal, and he will still put that fear into Thiem, which I don’t believe his is ready to overcome.
There’s also still the fact that Thiem is just a very inconsistent player. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he meekly lost to Medvedev in the Final tomorrow! Imo, Thiem should have won the title at Madrid last year. I know that Zverev had already proven he was big-time in Masters events, but there’s just no denying that Thiem is a superior clay court player to Zverev. It would have been a massive stamp of (temporary) authority for him to win a clay Masters having beaten Rafa en route. But no- he just didn’t really show up for the final. And that is still a concern for Thiem. Again, he has taken a huge step in capturing that elusive first Masters title. But he and all of us know who Thiem is, and that is a potentially all-time great clay courter. In my opinion, particularly since winning IW, there is no excuse for him to not win a clay Masters this year, especially with question marks surrounding Rafa and Novak. It’s time for Thiem to confirm what we know he is.
Yeah, I think Medvedev may beat Thiem in the final. Thiem hits hard and takes advantage of Rafa’s deep position behind the baseline. In the past, Rafa had no issue playing from so far back because 1) he’s powerful enough to hit with depth even from so far back; 2) he’s so quick around the court that he had no issue when defending or when running to get to drop shots.
Medvedev could hit with more depth and could change direction and pace readily, so it’s not the CC lefty FH to Thiem’s SHBH all the time strategy that Thiem was prepared to play when he faced Rafa.
Kevin, Thiem won a masters title a couple of months ago in Indian Wells. Beat a guy named Roger. Not bad being 2-0 against Fedal in your last two matches.
Joe, definitely not bad at all! Like I said, IW was a big step forward for him. That’s not Roland Garros, though. While Thiem showed improvement in showing poise in a big moment with his win over Fed in the IW final, that completely pales in comparison to the pressure he feels facing Nadal in the SF or Final of Roland Garros. For Thiem, winning Roland Garros is what he has wanted most his whole career. Clay is his bread and butter, but unfortunately for him the most challenging task in tennis history has been beating Nadal at RG. Again, he has shown he is a great enough tennis player to beat Rafa at RG, so I’m not saying that he isn’t capable of doing it. But beating those top guys at the majors is about much more than just tennis, especially for Thiem at RG. This is in part due to it being best-of-five, but mostly because it takes a level of mental toughness and poise that is in another stratosphere than beating Nadal and Federer at any non-Major tournament.
I should also mention that I thought Thiem also showed a big step-up in mental toughness in his epic match with Rafa at the US Open last year. But I can all but guarantee you that Dominic didn’t feel nearly the pressure facing Rafa at the US Open than he does at RG. Not to discount how mentally challenging it is to face Rafa at the other 3 majors, but facing him at RG is just a whole other other animal. It would be like facing prime Michael Jordan in the NBA Finals, except for you have to face him all by yourself with no help! And given that Thiem has now defeated Rafa on clay in each of the last four seasons, I really just feel like the pressure he will feel to pull it off at RG is something we can’t even fathom. And I guess I just don’t trust that Thiem is mentally tough enough yet to really, TRULY believe his can knock off Rafa at RG. He can say he believes til he’s blue in the face, but I believe that that all goes out the window facing him at RG. Maybe he’ll get lucky and somehow get through the draw without even having to play Rafa? Doubtful, but possible.
Honestly, if Thiem had at least had even just ONE single competitive set with Rafa in the previous 3 times they’ve played there, I might feel differently. But every time, especially the last two years, he was so utterly destroyed by Rafa, it was almost like he walked onto Stade RG defeated. The only way to explain him losing so meekly after having recently shown he can at least win sets off him is that facing Rafa at RG is practically a different sport than facing him at, say, Rome or Madrid. It’s not like he suddenly has to play with his legs chained together and win 10 straight sets. He only needs to win 1 more set than he does when he faces him at the smaller tournaments. But Thiem walked on the court at RG as if he DID have to play with his legs tied together! In fairness to Thiem, you might as well be playing with your legs bound together when you play Nadal at RG haha.
Kevin, you forget that Rafa playing at RG is different from Rafa playing at the warm up events. With the exceptions of 2015,
and 2009, Rafa always brought his best game to the FO.
I don’t know whether Rafa will bring his best to the FO this time, but I do think he’s not feeling worse than in 2015, so he’ll try to bring his best there.
Hello VR, how are you? Nice having you back here commenting.
Imo, once Rafa sees a familiar opponent who has/had beaten him a few times on clay, he tends to get more nervous and makes unusual errors.
I do agree that Rafa lacks confidence, and that’s why he’s sticking to a game plan that couldn’t work, instead of stepping up and changing his tactics. It’s frustrating to see him going FHCC to Thiem’s BH all the time, when clearly 1) he’s hitting his FH short, and 2) Thiem’s BH was solid today and he’s stepping inside the court to take on Rafa’s short balls; it’s like watching Fed vs Rafa of 2017.
Rafa’s serve was also vulnerable; even though he’s still getting in 64% of his first serve, they’re not as lethal as Thiem’s, or his own serves of AO2019; hence Thiem could return them quite readily and Rafa was made to work hard to win the points; his service games had practically gone to deuce all the time, that’s how vulnerable his serve was.
After his knee injury, it seems that his serve plus FH strategy at his AO has gone missing; what’s left is a vulnerable serve and a weaker FH which couldn’t sustain the pace and power (that he used to have all along).
I’m not expecting much from this clay season, after seeing how erratic his level of play is. He going back to grinding from so far back instead of playing a more aggressive shorter point tennis doesn’t bode well for him. The more grinding, the more harm done to the body, how’s he going to last playing like that in his 30s?
To me, the most frustrating thing I see this start of the clay season is how poorly Rafa serves. In MC that might be due to the windy conditions but it’s not that windy here at Barcelona yet Rafa threw in so many DFs and lost his serves in every match due to serving poorly, throwing in DFs during BPs!
Rafa has said though he lost his confidence is back, he played better this week than last and that he will build momentum..
My worry is will Rafa lose no 2 ranking before rg ?if he does it’s guaranteed he n Novak will be in same half to keep them away from fed ..
That’s not likely with Sascha playing so badly, Roger playing only Madrid before RG and no one else close enough to take over #2.
Don’t have to worry about Djoko; Djoko may not get that far to meet Rafa, seeing the way Djoko played since the AO. Djoko has his own problems too (and I’m not sure Djoko could beat this Thiem either).
To me, as long as Rafa plays more aggressive tennis like in 2017 clay season, he’ll beat most guys. I’m not sure Thiem is able to sustain this level of play over BO5; Rafa was playing better in the second set, and if they have to play a third set, chances are Rafa may win the third and then who knows how things turn out in the fourth set (or even the fifth). My guess is Thiem won’t be able to hit the lines without missing over three, four or five sets, so Rafa will slowly gain some ground and adapt, or change his tactics during the match.
In BO3 matches, it’s more difficult to turn things around. Even in 2013 when Rafa was playing well at MC that year, he ran into an on fire Djoko in the final, who was aggressive from start to finish, giving Rafa no time to turn things around; but at the FO, Rafa managed to turn things around to win in five sets.
As long as Rafa’s competitive spirit is there, he’ll try his best to win the matches (like in 2014); it’s when he doesn’t have the drive and the belief, then he may start losing everywhere (like in 2015).
And, we can’t expect Rafa to play without losing on clay, now that he’s in his 30s. In 2017, one of his best years on clay, he still lost a match, and to Thiem, what more he’s not playing that well now.
The younger Rafa during his heydays could beat almost everyone on clay, and managed to have a clean record in 2006 and 2010, without losing a match on clay. In other years, he had lost at least a match on clay each season, even in his best years of 2008, 2017 and 2018.
As long as Rafa still has the desire to win, he’ll continue to work hard to get better, both physically and mentally. I’m not saying he’ll sure to win at the FO, but, he’ll improve tournament after tournament, I believe.
I cane on here to see what other Rafa fans are saying after this loss. I confess to feeling very negative after watching it, I don’t know what on earth happened to Rafa’s serve. Just awful. He was under pressure in so many of his service games.
I don’t know where his DTL forehand is either. It’s obvious that his latest knee injury has taken a toll mentally, I stayed away from commenting her after reading that utter nonsense about Rafa bringing injured! From a Fed fan no less.
I was grateful to see VR here with his analysis. It is definitely lack of confidence. I agree about that. When Rafa had three break points in that last service game I thought he might actually come back to at least take the second set. He looked more like himself. But when he did not get it done I was really upset. I am closer to where Ed is at right now. Until this match, I thought Rafa would not retire soon at all. But after this match I started thinking that maybe Ed is right.
Now I am more on middle ground after reading everyone’s comments. I am concerned about Rafa losing points in each tournament. I also think that winning a title solves the confidence issue. Without winning any titles, his does Rafa get into a good rhythm with confidence? Then I read lucky’s post recalling 2014. I had actually forgotten that Rafa lost both MC and Barcelona. Rafa only won Madrid. But he still won RG. That does provide perspective. But he was five years younger. Age and injury are taking their toll.
I really appreciate the comments here. It helps to hear other Rafa fans. I don’t know what to expect for the rest of the clay season. I still think Rafa needs to win a title before RG. I am still in the middle between the competing arguments with Ed on the side of imminent retirement and others like VR thinking there is real progress and reason to feel positive about Rafa’s prospects in this clay season.
We will just have to watch and see what happens.
Rafa was quite pleased with today’s match, very happy with the progress he’s made since playing so badly at Monte Carlo, optimistic, eager to get back to work and full of praise for Thiem.
Yeah it’s an improvement over that Foggy match at MC. I mean the way Thiem played, Rafa only lost two service games despite going to deuces in almost all his own service games, at least he should be happy with the way he competed.
He needs to work on and improve his serve and FH, for only when they’re working well then he will have chances of moving inside the court to impose his game. He staying at the baseline to rally with his younger and stronger opponents won’t be a winning formula as he’s not getting any younger.
Thank you everyone for the greetings.Good to read your comments 🙂
In my opinion, Rafa is not going anywhere and will to win is still very strong. If his body keeps deserting him as frequently as it has in the last 12 months then nobody can predict what will happen as only he knows how that feels mentally.
If you look at the 5-4 30-0 point that Rafa won for 40-0, and note Rafa’s reaction, it is more than enough to tell you how much he still loves this game. It is the sheer love for the game that has kept Fedal on the field for so long at the top of the game.
Till the Mayer match in Barcelona, I was thinking that this year would be like 2015 as Rafa seems to have lost trust in his body and there is a large confidence deficit. However, the last three matches saw his level get better and better. He upped his level in the second set today and if Thiem had flinched even a little, Rafa would have won.
I am confident Rafa’s tennis will be right up there at RG but of course that is assuming his body is healthy.
Hi everyone and thanks for the greetings 🙂
It is good to read your comments!
Sorry if I haven’t replied to anyone’s emails. More than happy to talk and my email is the same : hasan_murad1990@hotmail.com
Just read the comments so far. I think those who reflexively pick Nadal in any clay court match are showing a bit of gamblers’ fallacy. Just because he’s won so much in the past doesn’t mean he can do so in 2019. His past record in Monte Carlo and Barcelona has been every bit as good as his record at RG; indeed, you may say that he has more of an advantage in Barcelona since it is virtually a home court for him. Yet he lost.
In my view, if Rafa and Thiem meet at RG this year, Thiem should be favored. Maybe that view will change over the next few weeks, but I doubt it. My guess is that Thiem will have even more confidence the next time they meet. We’ll see what happens in Madrid and Rome, but I don’t see how anyone could objectively think that Nadal’s chances of winning RG are better today than they were before the start of MC.
And it can be argued right back that those who think Thiem will be favored henceforth are suffering from a recency bias. Throwing terms around to provide an illusion of being logical is an old trick.
Recency bias is not bias in this context. It’s called current form.
Just like experience of previous years amounts to something esp since the game is played between the years at that level
I don’t deny that it amounts to something. But Nadal is nearly 33, and imo his clay level has declined since 2017. Some commentators here say things like: “I just can’t bring myself to pick against the king of clay on a clay court, esp. at RG.” To me that’s disregarding the evidence that Nadal is not the same player he was, and that others (notably, Thiem) are better and perhaps coming into their prime.
And you answered your question yourself! Why despite the loss it is difficult picking against him on a clay court. It is the same reason why it is difficult to pick against roger on a grass court no matter what his form and age is going into wimbledon. And his record is not even as impressive as rafas at rg. I never heard you saying that dominic will be the favorite against roger going forward after the indian wells loss. This cherry picking of “logic” is laughable really😁
No one is assuming Federer will win the USO, which is the relevant slam comparison. In contrast, every Rafa fan on this site seems to think Nadal will win RG, despite his start to the clay court season. There’s your difference.
I would pick Fed over Thiem on grass (although I believe Thiem has beaten him on that surface). I’m not sure about HC; it would depend on their form. If they played tomorrow, I think it would be close.
I understand what you’re saying, Joe. You seem to be taking people’s picks/predictions of Rafa winning RG as them saying that nobody can beat him. That’s just not the case. There’s no question that, as of now, Nadal will be going into RG much more vulnerable than he did the last two years. But I think part of the reason for still picking Rafa is because nobody has even come remotely close to getting a sniff at beating him there recently. I mean, if he was declining last year, then what does it say about Thiem that he was made to look like the 200th ranked player in the world by Nadal in the Final? In his last 14 matches at RG, the field was only able to take one single set off of him. One! If Thiem had at least made it even slightly competitive the last couple years, people might not be so bullish (no pun attended) about picking Nadal again. But he couldn’t even make it competitive, let alone take a set.
But the important part here is that nobody thinks that Nadal CAN’T be beaten at RG. It is a fact that with age comes the inevitability that Nadal will have to lose at RG again eventually. And it could very well be this year! I know that there are still two of the biggest clay events left to play, but there has been good enough evidence to support picking against Nadal at RG if that’s what you believe. But to suggest that there isn’t also sufficient evidence that the old “I still just can’t pick against Nadal at RG” is still a sound argument, I think you’re overlooking some pretty important factors there, Joe. But it’s not black and white. There is good reason to still doubt the field against Nadal, while still acknowledging that a couple of them are absolutely capable of knocking him off. Hell, one of them HAS knocked him off at RG, albeit Djokovic was a proven all-time great and at his peak, while Nadal was in his biggest slump ever.
Now, because we still have Madrid and Rome, any of us who are currently still picking Rafa to win RG reserve the right to change our minds in another month. Who knows? Nadal could snap out of it and win both Madrid and Rome convincingly. Or he could flame out at both of them, and we could conclude that it’s 2015 all over again + age. If the latter does happen, and Thiem wins one or both of them, then I will re-evaluate accordingly. But at this very moment, I just don’t see how you could claim that, while there is evidence he is not currently the same player, there is ALSO evidence that he can still be favored. You’re claiming that I’m downplaying certain factors, which is fine. I’m claiming that you are downplaying certain factors.
Maybe this could be a similar situation:
Would it have been a lazy pick to have picked Fed to win the 2008 Wimbledon Final because you just felt like Wimbledon was still Fed’s kingdom, even though Fed has been struggling that year, both tennis-wise and health-wise, and Rafa had been gaining on him? I don’t think so. I think a lot of people stuck with Fed for that one, even though nearly all signs pointed to Rafa taking it. Even though Rafa did end up winning it, a lot of people still picked Fed because he was still the king of Wimbledon at that point, and it clearly wasn’t a horrible pick because he barely lost!
While Nadal came exponentially closer previously to beating Fed at Wimbledon(2007) than Thiem has previously ever come to beating Nadal at RG, I see this Rafa/Thiem/RG debate as similar to the Fedal 2008 Wimbledon match in a way. While there are many signs pointing to Thiem being ready to overtake Rafa at RG, there are still very legitimate reasons to believe that Thiem is not ready yet. I know it gets tiring hearing it worded as, “I just don’t see anyone knocking off Nadal at RG yet”, but I gave what I think are very legitimate reasons why that is a sound argument. And I think your arguments are totally sound, too- I just still mean more toward Nadal, at least until Madrid and Rome are over.
Very different situation for Fed in 2008. Although Rafa had just drubbed him in Paris and Fed was recovering from mono, Nadal had never beaten him on grass and he was the 5 time defending champ at Wimby. He was also still 26 years old. In contrast, at present the relevant factors are Nadal’s age, recent declining form, and the fact that Thiem has beaten him several times on clay already.
To be clear, I don’t object to anyone picking Nadal on clay (how could I?). It’s the way some (perhaps including you) have done it, which makes it seem an obvious, reflexive pick. I don’t think it is, which is why I picked Thiem.
It does seem to be all or nothing for Nadal mentally even on clay .Why does he keep playing poor tactics ?
I don’t understand why a player with such a record on clay could ever lack confidence , even if injured.
But at RG, he’ll have the advantage of a bigger court ,five sets and days off.
I agree though, its not looking good for him right now to retain his title .
He’s not a confident person to start with. Toni made him feel that he’s not the most talented player out there so made him believed that he had to work extra hard to be successful. I feel that had gone to Rafa’s head and so if he couldn’t practice or train (due to injuries), he would have doubts in his head and would think that he’s not good enough to go out there to compete.
I honestly feel that it’s all in the mind! Rafa’s game is good enough to compete on most days, as he’s already been playing for so long now and his default game is good enough whether he practises or not! He’s trained to think a lot on court, even when serving, and that’s why he’s taking so long before each serve. Sometimes, I feel that he’s overthinking out there, when simply going for his shots based on instincts would be good enough.
Poor Rafa maybe ,But its still hats off to Thiem, take nothing away from his amazing performance
Nadal played well, and he didn’t lack confidence. He said so himself on both counts, post-match. He hit more DFs than he might have, but that’s because Thiem was teeing off on his serve, which (2nd serve) isn’t that great. And that forced him to go for better 2nd serves.
All in all, any problems Rafa was having today were mostly caused by his opponent.
Ha, the same could be said of Struff, when he couldn’t get many first serves in because of Rafa’s returns!
Had Rafa served better, he would turn things around against Thiem, see, it works both ways! Rafa served poorly because of his nerve, and its not only against Thiem, but against everyone else – Foggy, Mayer, Pella…
Thiem is not known to have a great ROS, I bet against Fed for example, he won’t have that kind of luxury.
Why do you think it’s because of Rafa’s nerve? He said otherwise in his presser; do you think you know better than him? (Ramara says Nadal is one of the most honest players out there when it comes to this sort of self-assessment).
Thiem’s ROS today was great, including against some very good Nadal 1st serves in the first set. He played top shelf in all aspects of the game.
Joe, Rafa is always nervous out there, he himself admitted it all along. Against an opponent like Thiem, I could imagine he’s even more nervous. But, the way Thiem played had put lots of pressure on him, and that’s why he DF’d so often. I would say he DF’d due to the pressure, and so he’s not calm (feeling anxious or nervous) when he served. Of course he didn’t lose the match because of his nerve, but because of how his opponent played. I hope I’ve made myself clear.
Isn’t it the same as that Struff match, when Struff had poorer 1st serve % than in his previous match, all because of what Rafa could do with the returns? So, taking your logic of ‘if Struff could serve better, he might….’, if Rafa could serve better, he might hang in there to force a TB or two, even though he might still not win.
Anyway, Rafa’s serve is giving him lots of problems, as he practically had to throw in a bad service game at least, in every match he played, wind or no wind. And because of that, he couldn’t play his more aggressive serve plus FH game and had reverted to a more grinding clay court game that he used to play in the past. And, because his serve is so returnable, that put more pressure on his service games and he’s always being pushed back behind the baseline when Thiem could step in to return his serve with interest; almost all his service games had gone to deuce!
It’s a ‘muracle’ that despite all the deuces, Rafa could still hang in there and only lost his serve once in each set.
While Thiem might be playing his best tennis, Rafa wasn’t, though he didn’t play badly, just being overpowered and outplayed, not unlike his match vs Foggy.
I don’t know whether Thiem could play even better than this going forward, or whether he could sustain this level of play during the FO (or the rest of the clay season). For Rafa, there’s room for improvement, whether he could raise his level going forward (Will it be a repeat of 2014 or 2015?), we have to wait and see.
Now I know why you made the Struff comparison. It’s true that I said that if he had been able to hit more 1st serves he might have won. However, Struff’s serve is a much bigger weapon than Rafa’s, and the former hit (if I recall) a much lower pct. of 1st serves in.
In the Nadal-Thiem match, I’m not sure what Nadal could have done differently. You say step into the court. But Thiem was hitting very hard and deep; he would have hit a lot more balls by Nadal had Rafa been right at the baseline. Could Rafa have changed the whole baseline dynamic by being more aggressive? Maybe; it’s possible. But it sure didn’t look like it was a winning strategy to me, given the way Thiem was hitting. That’s why I think that Rafa employed a reasonable strategy given his opponent’s style and level of play.
I’m not saying Rafa would win if he stepped inside the court. As I’ve mentioned, the problem with Rafa was still his serve; I mean if he could serve and hit his FH the way he did at the AO, I don’t think Thiem could impose his game on Rafa. It’s because Rafa’s FH was less venomous now (the commentators thought so too), that he no longer could hit it with depth and topspin to give Thiem the problem at the BH corner. Like I mentioned during the match, that it’s like Fed vs Rafa in 2017, Thiem was able to step in to take the ball early on his BH side because Rafa’s FH wasn’t good enough.
Rafa hits his FH from way behind the baseline and so his shots landed more in Thiem’s service box than at the baseline. When he was hitting it hard, it went beyond the baseline. Imo, Rafa wasn’t able to hit his FH with power and enough topspin to make it land deeper in the court or on the baseline, that’s something he needs to work on.
Rafa wasn’t hitting his DTL FH shots even when there’s the open court there when Thiem was camping at his BH corner; a change in direction now and then could have given Thiem a bit more problem than the predictability of hitting CC to Thiem’s BH all the time. It’s only when Rafa was about to lose the match serving at 3-5 in the second set that he hit a beautiful FHDTL winner and managed to hold his serve for the last time. To me (and to the Rafa fans), Rafa hitting or not hitting his FHDTL shots is an indication of his confidence level; when he isn’t confident enough, he tends to play the default pattern of hitting his FHCC to his opponent’s BH.
Couldn’t agree more Lucky. His DTL shot is a thing of beauty but not using it is always a sign he is lacking confidence.
Its another excuse to say Rafa isn’t confident, that’s something all sportspeople have to deal with , not just those atr the very top of their game!
Big Al,
Baloney! Rafa lacking confidence is NOT an excuse! I am so sick of this nonsense! Rafa has always needed a lot of match play to get his rhythm and timing going. He thrived on it. Winning matches breeds confidence. But Rafa’s recent knee injury really seems to have set him back mentally. I know that those who are not fans of Rafa love to make up their own garbage about him. But it has nothing to do with the truth. The knee acted up last year at the USO and Rafa took the rest of the year off. Then it acted up at I/W. If Rafa cannot trust has body, it will affect his game.
We don’t need to make excuses for Rafa! He has records that will never be equaled! So please stop telling us what we are doing! It’s condescending and patronizing!
It was Lucky who said he wasn’t a confident person to start with ,
but it never stopped him becoming the clay GOAT ,did it? That’s why I say it’s an excuse to bring it up now,all sportsmen have to deal with it. Federer doesn’t sleep the night before a big match,it’s normal.
How much match practise did Rafa ever need on clay?It’s hardly been a problem before!
I’m not attacking anyone,it’s just that you can be overprotective of Rafa and less objective at times.
Similar comment about lacking match practise at the AO,yet he played some of his best HC matches ever and reached the final! Doesn’t strike me as lack of confidence.
Basically,he’ 33 and has lost the edge physically so that affects his game which affects him mentally as well.
This is meant to be an objective discussion,sorry if it appears otherwise.
He wasn’t a confident person to start with, any Rafa fan would know that. People thought Rafa is god on clay, so he doesn’t need any match practice and can go out there to beat anyone whether Rafa is fit or not! That’s just nonsense! Why do you think he practices and trains so hard then? Though his basic game is already so good and can beat most guys, he’s not mentally wired to think that way; if not he won’t even need to train so hard, esp after his injuries.
If you’ve followed his interviews and pressers, you would realise that he always emphasises on practice and training. If he plays badly, he would immediately take to the practice court and practices and trains hard.
Rafa was training hard before the AO (if not how did he acquire that serve?)but he lacked actual matches, so you’re wrong, he didn’t lack practices and training, he lacked actual match play. Like I said, it’s almost a miracle that he managed to reach the AO final (I did predict at that time that he at best could only reach the QF). He had his serve plus FH tactic at that time to help him.
As Joe had mentioned, he only had a short injury recovery period this time (4 weeks), hence he didn’t have enough time to train hard before the clay season. It’s not difficult to see that he’s playing relatively badly at MC and had improved in Barcelona. Unlike the AO, he now has time for actual match plays, he had already played 8 matches, so he should be getting more and more confident going forward (and better and better imo).
Rafa may not be as good as in 2017 on clay, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not going to win. If it takes the best of Foggy and Thiem to beat a not so good Rafa, then how much more is required of them when facing a Rafa who’s playing at a higher level than now?
It’s no wonder Rafa felt confident after the Thiem match, because he knew he could play better but Thiem had probably played his best match on clay (at least currently, not talking about the future years when Thiem may get better, not only in skills but tactics and court craft).
Ok then,it’s a reason not an excuse.Semantics
To those non Rafa fans, in particular the Fed fans, it’s excuses.
Big Al, you seem to know nothing about Rafa yet you’re always here telling the Rafa fans off, you’re pathetic. Just go and concentrate on your idol Fed, stop talking nonsense about Rafa, even your idol Fed has shown so much respect for Rafa. It’s his condescending fans who are bitter and still couldn’t get over the fact that Rafa has Fed’s numbers for so long esp at the slams.
You Rafa fans are the ones who are obsessed with your idol,judging by how often you are on here talking about him but that’s your privilege how you spend your time.
I do prefer Federer but am realistic when making predictions.I don’t always back him or go into long discussions about why he lost.
Nadal isn’t as confident as he used to be ,due to age related decline,that’s a good reason for it.But to suggest he was always lacking confidence does sound like an excuse.Really?One of the greatest competitors of all time?
Anyway,I hope he does get over this lapse and get back to his best,TBH I don’t care if he wins RG or not but want to see him tested more this year.Who ever wins will deserve it!
Big Al, go visit the Fed fan websites and you’ll see how they drool over him.
This website is full of Rafa fans, so too bad if you choose to post here. Why can’t we post what we think about Rafa, and defends him if he’s being wrongly accused of this or that? Why do we need people to tell us off, when they don’t even read about Rafa, or follow his tennis closely?
Rafa is not a confident person, but that doesn’t mean he can’t gain in confidence as he progresses through the draw, or when he’s in the winning momentum. Nobody says he’s lacking in confidence all the time; it’s when he’s injured, coming back from injury, or was playing badly for a reason, that he’s more lacking in confidence and it would take him a while to regain some confidence.
If you choose to misread or misunderstand what we have to say, then too bad!
PS. You talk as if you represented ALL Fed fans! Some Fed fans were already giving excuses that Fed was old when he lost, even during 2008/2009 when Fed was only 27/28 years old.
Isn’t the rg phillipe chartier court being razed down n modified .what advantage will Rafa have if court is no longer the same..
Lucky,the reason I post here is because it’s a tennis discussion forum, I don’t need to ‘know much about Nadal’ or be his fan to do that.Ive been watching him long enough,so I’ve got my own opinions.
It’s a tennis forum so please leave us the Rafa fans to comment on his tennis, we don’t you to be here criticising us!
Sorry if you can’t cope with any other opinion .
Not when you’re criticising us the Rafa fans!
Where? I disagreed,that’s all
Why would I criticise Nadal fans , and you in particular??
Well, I wasn’t trying to , but now you mention it ,you’re arrogant about your ‘superior’ knowledge, dismissive of other opinions ,eg starting every other post with a dismissive ‘Nah, that’s not right’ .
So, you’re guilty of the same thing , critcising who you think are fanatical fans of Federer.Just because Rafa fans might be in the majority, doesn’t give you the excuse to gang up on other tennis fans.Its bullying, in other words , and I did describe Nadal as a bully previously, because that’s his basic game in a nutshell,physically strong but mentally weak when the physicality doesn’t work. Why doesn’t he stand closer to the baseline ,or hit the FHDTL when everyone now knows he has to do that ?? Its pathetic .We’re talking about a GOAT contender, so sorry, I have to comment on it .
Enjoy the rest of the clay season .
Nadal has always struck me as a classic bully on the tennis court. Just my purely subjective opinion.
In fairness, off the court he seems to be a genuinely nice and humble guy.
Yeah yeah, so I’m arrogant and you’re not! Come on, you call my comment (about how Rafa played vs Foggy) pathetic. You call the Rafa fans here obsessive over Rafa. And who are the non Rafa fans who are obsessive over Rafa, posting so often about Rafa once he lost a match?
I don’t wish to ‘quarrel’ with you here, I thought you had let the matter rested (your post at May 1st, 1.12pm), but your comment of May 2, 10.40pm seemed to me that you always wanted to win an argument and had the last say.
One more thing about Rafa – why he didn’t choose to move closer to the baseline or step inside the court to hit his FH when it’s obvious he’s hitting it short from so far back? Precisely, that’s something we were discussing here among the fans and non fans.
As mentioned, when he’s not confident, he tends to hit his FH short, or mis-hit it; and the more he mis-hit it, the less confident he becomes. He did try to hit it hard at times, but tend to over hit when doing so, until the last few games when he finally found his range but too late.
My guess as to why he’s not moving forward towards the baseline: it’s clay, and he knew once he’s able to hit hard plus impart enough topspin, he hitting from way behind the baseline won’t be an issue. It’s not HC, where he knew he needs to play closer to the baseline, so after returning serves, he would try moving forward when playing on the HCs.
He said after the Thiem match, that he’s confident he could play better, so who are we to doubt him; after all, don’t we all agree or at least recognise that he’s honest with his assessment – of himself and his opponents?.
I’ve joined in many discussions about Rafa ,it’s coincidence that you his fans have most of them when he loses.Im not rubbing that in .
I think I’ve said my main point about Nadal in my last post,though . However nice or honest a guy he is off court,
he closely resembles a bully on it,thanks for agreeing Joe.
That’s why I find it hard to sympathise with some of the ‘reasons’ his fans give about why he lost,esp the mental weakness one.
I hope he does get back to something near his best for RG .
Hopefully that explains it better,I’ve nothing more to add really .
I come to think that Rafa really has nothing to prove on clay! He has records that no one will be able to match probably ever, and he has had achieved it with all the times off and injuries he had to cope with! Why on earth would either Rafa or Novak risk any injury just to win another 250 event? Rafa knows his body may desert him any time and he should be wise enough to treat these tourneys before RG only as warm up events! He needs match play and he needs to build his form, the confidence will not be an issue when he steps on the RG court! If healthy and back to his fitness and form Rafa has only one person to fear which is Novak and nobody else! This Thiem stands no chance against Rafa in RG because Rafa in Paris will not serve dfs, will be in more attacking mode and will be moving way better, trust me!
Vamos Rafa!
Maybe you’re right, Nats. You’re a die-hard fan. But to me, the recent AO final may be a better guide. To my eye, Nadal before the final looked to be playing as well as he had ever played on a HC. I expected either a Nadal win or at the very least a marathon match like he and Novak have played before. As it turns out, it wasn’t even competitive. For whatever reason -and I don’t think it was injury- he wasn’t able to get close to Djokovic, something I don’t think anyone expected.
Now, I’m not saying that if Nadal should make the RG final that he has a chance of getting blown off the court. I don’t think that. But a lot of people seem to think that Thiem (or anyone else) won’t stand a chance against 2019 Nadal’s best at RG. Based on what I’ve seen so far, I just don’t think that’s true.
If Rafa stays healthy he wins RG. If not, not. Rafa’s quite aware that he still has work to do to bring his game up to his usual very high clay court standard. His head relishes the prospect. I just hope his body still does.
Btw Rafa’s take on the AO final loss was that while he’d developed a very good aggressive game, he hadn’t been able to bring his defense up to its usual standard, and he NEEDS his defense vs Djokovic.
You seem to think Rafa is currently healthy. Yet he lost twice recently. Why couldn’t a healthy Nadal lose at RG? In fact, he could. If he doesn’t win Madrid or Rome, it will become more likely that will lose at RG. That’s my point.
Not really. RG has always been the most favorable place for Rafa. He does very well at Madrid and Rome but “only” wins them maybe 50 to 70% if the time. He doesn’t “need” to win them but he will want to play well at them and certainly will try to win. Winning the “clay slam” is a fantastically difficult achievement. Only Rafa has done it and only once (2010) and he skipped Barcelona that year.
I suppose a healthy Rafa could have a really bad day and an opponent have a really great day but 5 sets makes that unlikely. Maybe Djokovic will get his game together and play lights out – he wants that 2nd RG and might be able to take Rafa out if Rafa’s a bit off. Maybe Thiem will manage to play lights out over 5 sets. I really don’t see anyone else stepping up to do it this year.
No reason to think that it’s only Rafa who may be a bit off, when Djoko is playing worse tennis on clay so far. If Djoko could suddenly play light out tennis, why then Rafa couldn’t if he’s fit and healthy? Djoko may want to get his four in a row but Rafa may also want his no.12!
As for Thiem, I do think that he had to work very hard through the draw at the FO, being BO5 and Thiem played plenty of five sets matches and losing some epic ones. I do think it’s unlikely that Thiem is going to play this way in BO5 match after match, unless the draw opens up nicely for him, or he’s on fire and plays like Stan in 2015 FO. We’ll see.
A healthy Rafa but just back from injury. Certainly you’re not expecting him to play lights out tennis once he steps on clay, do you? That’s being unrealistic!
Rafa is happy with his progress, he knows himself better than any of us, and I’m sure he’s working to be ready for the FO. Rafa needs match plays, regardless of winning or not winning titles. I read it in the past, that Rafa usually needs about 15 matches on clay to feel that he’s ready for RG.
Lucky, I think this “just back from injury” line is more than a little misleading. Nadal’s injuries are chronic, particularly his knee. For a long time, he has effectively managed his schedule by sacrificing the non-clay season to be available and maximally healthy for the clay. He does this not only because the clay is easier on his body, but because his chances to win are obviously best there.
As I’ve said previously, Nadal was only out for 2 weeks after the scheduled Federer match in Indian Wells before returning to the practice courts. That is not a serious injury and nothing compared to his absences in 2016 (3+ months) and 2012-13 (6 months). Yet, in both those earlier cases, his subsequent performance was much better, not just on clay, where he nearly swept the clay court season in 2013 and 2017, but also on HC. The difference, I think, is that he was younger then. Age and injury seem to have caught up with him, which is why even though his layoff this time around is much shorter, his results are not nearly as good.
I never heard of a player who needed that much match practise,in addition to his other extensive training.No wonder he gets injured .
It’s not as if his form was poor at MC over the years,usually his first tournament on clay.
The year he was really tested before RG,2009, he overplayed got injured and lost early at RG.
I wonder will we see that again?
Mt Joe, 2012 was seven years ago; 2016 was three years ago. Rafa is now 33, not that young anymore. Why do you think his injuries are happening more frequently and at shorter intervals nowadays? In 2018 itself, he was injured twice, both times at the HC slams; and that’s only seven months apart, and Rafa needed three months off to recover before playing the AO. And, he got injured again after only two months from the AO; you think Rafa’s body will get better and better as he gets older?
He’s suffering from knee tendinitis and he needs rest to let it heal to a reasonable level; he started practicing two weeks after IW but that’s light practice, not intensive practice. Why do you think he did so poorly at MC? Do you think his clay court prowess has gone down so much, when he could reach the final of a HC slam, and SF of a HC masters not long ago?
Rafa said it himself, he needs to find himself; he may be not trusting his body yet after the injury; it’s obvious he’s not pushing his body too much, esp when serving and hitting his FH. His serve wasn’t at the AO level, and he has lost some venom on his FH, and that’s why he couldn’t hit it with both depth and topspin for his usual high bounce and depth on clay. And yet, he could reach the SF at B2B clay events and it took his opponents playing light out tennis to beat him.
No wonder Rafa is positive and happy with his progress, and said that when he’s able to play his best tennis, he could beat Foggy and Thiem (on clay). The question of course is whether he could find his best tennis; if Rafa is fit and healthy, I don’t see why he couldn’t.
Well, you’re just making my point for me. Because Nadal is older, he can’t recover as quickly and quite possibly can’t find the level he was able to attain when he was younger. That’s not injury: that’s age-related decline.
We both know that if he had suffered the knee problem at, say the US open, he would have taken much more time off. He came back right away (just skipping Miami) because this is the clay season, his bread and butter. Again, in the past when he was younger, he was able to overcome much longer lay-offs (with presumably much more rust) and still dominate the clay court season. He doesn’t seem to be able to do that anymore, and the reason is probably age-related decline. That’s why I say that even on clay, his healthy best won’t necessarily beat everyone anymore.
Joe, there’s no point arguing until we turn blue; we are not Rafa, and it’s not like who wins the argument here determines how he will perform!
Just wait and see how the rest of the clay season unfolds. It’s just like I won’t trust that Thiem could play this way week after week on clay, because he hasn’t proven he can do that yet. It’s no point arguing, you’re not going to convince me or the other Rafa fans, neither will we convince you otherwise.
Joe, you forget that Rafa didn’t play for months before the AO, to get to the final the way he did was indeed unbelievable, and here you asked why he played so poorly in the final? I mean we are talking about Djoko his opponent, who had the winning momentum with him, winning at Wimbledon, USO before coming to the AO! Djoko’s serve was also unbelievable in that final.
Now, he’s coming back from injury so why would he start to beat everyone on clay so soon? Give him time, he knows what he needs to improve on in the coming weeks. He’s already playing better tennis than when he’s at MC.
PS. He also said that he didn’t serve well yesterday, esp the second serve (hence his five DFs) and that put pressure on his first serve, he netted so many first serves.