The world No. 1 is gone, but arguably the two most in-form clay-courters in the game will be squaring off in the final of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Sunday. It will be Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem for the title after Thiem took down top-ranked Andy Murray in the semis.
The ninth-ranked Austrian had previously been 0-2 lifetime against Murray, but he now owns wins at the expense of both Murray and Nadal. The head-to-head series with the latter stands at 2-1 in favor of Nadal and all three of their previous encounters have come on clay. A 2013 French Open meeting went Nadal’s way via a 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 decision and they split a pair of 2016 showdowns; Thiem prevailed 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) in the Buenos Aires semis before Nadal got the job done 7-5, 6-3 in Monte-Carlo.
Given the relative slumps of Murray and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer’s current clay-court absence, and the way Nadal and Thiem are performing on clay, this is a potential preview of a Roland Garros semi or even final. Unsurprisingly, Nadal is perfect on the red stuff this season. The 14-time Grand Slam champion triumphed for a 10th time in Monte-Carlo last week and so far in Barcelona he has cruised to straight-set victories over Rogerio Dutra Silva, Kevin Anderson, Hyeon Chung, and Horacio Zeballos.
Thiem in 2017 has, for the most part, been somewhere in between his 2016 pre-Wimbledon and post-Wimbledon self. It is good enough to be No. 4 in the race to London even if he loses on Sunday and No. 3 if he wins. The 23-year-old is 23-9 for the season and 10-1 on clay, including a title in Rio de Janeiro and wins this week over Kyle Edmund, Dan Evans, Yuichi Sugita, and Murray.
“It’s not a surprise that Dominic is in the final,” Nadal commented. “He is one of the best in the world, and he loves clay. At the beginning of the tournament, he was already one of the main favorites to be in the final. He is a player with a lot of power. He imposes a lot on his shots, and if you let him be comfortable, it’s almost impossible to stop him.”
“To get two matches in a row against two of the best players ever is big for my game,” Thiem noted.
It is true that this is perfect French Open preparation for Thiem regardless of the outcome, and he is one of the few players who has the clay-court game that can beat Nadal even if Nadal plays well. But the No. 4 seed struggled to maintain his best level for more than a set against Murray–who faded in a rocky third set for both men–and doing so for at least two sets against Nadal is even tougher.
There are no secrets in this one: both players will look to dominate rallies with their forehands while pounding away at the other’s backhand. Thiem’s one-hander is more likely to break down first amidst the pressure of Nadal’s heavy topspin and lefty serve out wide.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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who ya got?
Can’t wait to watch this one on Sunday…Rafa too confident at this moment….he’ll win in 2.
Like both players, but hoping for Nadal. Don’t care whether it’s 2 or 3 sets. 3 will be more entertaining.
Tsame.
Rafa in three
I think Thiem is good enough to get a set off Rafa. This is the first top ten player he’s faced and someone who is good on clay. I don’t think this is going to be a cakewalk.
I think this should be a good match. Rafa should get his 10th title in 3 sets.
I think Rafa will win in 2 or 3…depends on how fast he will recover from his nervousness…and nervous he will knowing he’s on the verge of another record breaking..and the weather and his opponent also will play a part in it..C’Mon Rafa!!Wooohooo!!
Any other result than a win for Rafa is unthinkable. Agree it will take three sets however to wear Thiem down and wouldn’t be surprised if he lost the first set before reeling in the Austrian.
Rafa in 3
hard to go against Rafa at the moment.
however I’m hesitant to write Thiem off.
Rafa is always most vulnerable in the first few games so it’s important for him to hold on to his serve at the start. No match is won on paper or by gut feeling; the matches have to be played, hopefully, Rafa will bring his ‘A’ game and get the win.
Vamos Rafa!
Keep your mind sharp and focused, stay confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-qNeJQXgAA4Gr7.jpg
I am very fond of Thiem too. He is the one from younger gen I support along with Zverev Alex . So I am fine with whoever wins. However since Rafa is going for decima here and not sure how many more chances he will get, will want Rafa to win here and wrap it up and get the milestone of la decima in a 500 too along with masters 1000..
Rafa in 2
Thiem has come to play, but so has Rafa!
God help us if they are in the same quarter of the FO draw
Yep!
Rada serving well. Both guys looking sharp in the early going.
That was a huge hold for Thiem.
yup
yes NNY! great serving. Rafa served an ace on 30-30 now.
good hold for Rafa
Great quality! Rafa needs to go for a little bit more on his inside-in forehand!
That was a monstrous hold for Thiem at 3-3.
yup
Rafa serving well, no?
Bernardes has nail varnish on. 😉
Rafa has been unreal at the net! Easy hold again for Rafa.
Excellent hold!
Brilliant tennis from both sides! Amazing to watch!
Vamos Rafa!