Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

It will not only be the No. 1 vs. No. 2 seed on Sunday in Barcelona, but it will also be the two men who have dominated this tournament to the tune of 10 titles in the last 11 years. Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will battle for a familiar winner’s trophy.

Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers and for the second time this season when they meet again in the title match of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 8-1, including 2-0 on clay. In one of those clay-court showdowns, however, Nishikori seemed to be cruising to the 2014 Madrid title but ended up retiring in the third set because of a back injury. Nadal had previously trounced Nishikori on the slow stuff via a 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 scoreline at the 2013 French Open. They most recently faced each other earlier this spring in Indian Wells, where the Spaniard cruised 6-4, 6-3.

It is not often that Nadal goes up against a two-time defending champion of a clay-court tournament, but that will be the case in this one. After Nadal captured eight Barcelona titles in the span of nine seasons, Nishikori lifted the trophy in both 2014 and 2015. The world No. 6 is one victory from doing the same following straight-set defeats of Thiemo De Bakker, Jeremy Chardy, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Benoit Paire.

Kei

A resurgent Nadal will be No. 2 in the race to London on Monday and–as usually–he is looking especially impressive on clay. The top seed is coming off a much-needed title in Monte-Carlo, where Novak Djokovic lost early before Nadal took care of Andy Murray and Gael Monfils in the semis and final. Not looking back in Barcelona, Nadal punched his ticket to the championship match by beating Marcel Granollers, Albert Montanes, Fabio Fognini, and Philipp Kohlschreiber all in straight sets.

“Tomorrow I will play against one of the world’s best players and it will be complicated,” the world No. 5 assured. “I have to play a great match to win the final.”

The good news for Nadal is that it may not be as complicated as it could be on a fast hard court, such as the one on which Nishikori got the job done 6-2, 6-4 in last summer’s Montreal quarterfinals. Nishikori, who loves to take balls early, has a much easier time hitting through Nadal on a slicker surface. With his confidence regained and advantages in terms of both the surface and the crowd, Nadal should be able to hold off an in-form opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 3

[polldaddy poll=9395414]

180 Comments on Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

      • What on earth are you talking about, el.. uhh…hawkeye?
        I forget to use a different browser or switch my username. It really doesn’t matter but I’m jalep in more places than ratcliff. sorry.

        No congrats necessary. Congrats to you, though!

  1. Rafa will be less nervous than in MC final. His game is better than in IW and unless he self destructs he will win in two. I saw Kei’s first set with Dolgo and he looked so vulnerable. Dolgo made UEs on his own and made it easier for Nishi to defend numerous break points which were set points. In the second Dolgo just dissapeared as expected…

    Btw, Rafa is not Paire!
    I hope Rafa wins in 2!

    Vamos Champ!

  2. I think that Rafa can run it in straight sets if he comes out playing aggressive and raises his level of play. I expect him to do it. I also agree that he should not be as nervous as he was in the MC final. That was a big step for him. He has seemed more comfortable overall in Barcelona.

    However, Nishi will be the toughest opponent he has faced so far. The level of competition has not been what it was in MC. He is capable of making a match out of it, maybe even taking a set if Rafa gives back a break or has any lapses.

    I am banking on Rafa being ready for this match and determined to get this title. So while I put in the caveat that Nishi might get a set, I think that Rafa can win I straight sets.

  3. Rafa, I am happy you are in the final here. This time last year i could barely recognise you, at least now you are showing signs of someone that I used to know!! Good luck, Rafa!!!

    Vamos!!

  4. As long as Rafa can run without feeling tired and hit good shots as what he has done in the last two weeks, Kei has zero chance.

    Two sets losing 8 games max.

  5. It’s true so far Nishi has had to fight hard for his wins but equally Rafa has been on the back foot on several occasions. Like all champions they both have the ability to raise their level for the final push. I think it is being over optimistic to hope Rafa will do it in straight sets against a healthy Nishi.

    Rafa in 3 with at least one or even two TBs

    • Depends what you consider to be Rafa’s A game. If you expect old Rafa to dhow up I think you will be dissapointed. Rafa of 2016 is much improved version of 2015, but he is far from Rafa 2008! However, I find it perfectly normal. This Rafa knows he won’t destroy his opponents as he used to when he ruled on clay but he also knows that if focused and playing with confidence his shots will gain more precision and he will win!

      I strongly believe this Rafa can beat Nishi in 2 if he himself has belief!

      Vamos Champ!

      • I mean the current Rafa’s A game which he himself admits he didn’t play against Khols yesterday.

        “It was my worst match of the week, I hit many unforced errors with my backhand today. It’s fantastic that I made it to the final,” said Nadal.

        • Yeah, Rafa made errors from his BH side, that’s true! He also said the wind bothered him so I tried to find the reasons for his letdown. In the same time faced a single break point which is good! I am glad Rafa looks to improve his game further as he always does! It gives me comfort that he will do better in the final! I would be thrilled if he faced a single break point in the final as well! 🙂

          Vamos!

  6. When they played a couple of years ago and Kei dominated the match he had just started working with Chang and his tactics took Rafa by surprise. Not only has Kei not maintained that attacking style long term but Rafa is now aware of it.

  7. Most of the backhands were overhit…he was trying to push his opponent back so at least the intent was good.

    He will surely raise his level today. Won’t be surprised if Nishi comes out all guns blazing but Rafa will be ready. He will win this one in 2 sets in my view, but could be three of course.

    • vr,

      I agree that Rafa was over hitting his backhand against kohls.

      Nishi is going to come out very aggressive. That’s the way to beat Rafa. I think my prediction was somewhat heart over head in saying that Rafa will win in 2 sets. Nishi is playing better now than he was at I/W, but so is Rafa.

      If Rafa has mental lapses or gives back breaks of serve, then this could be a tough match. It’s on rafa’s racket

  8. Funny, Rafa had 16 UEs and only 11 winners against Fog and yet was pleased with his performance and said he was not that nervous any more…yesterday he made 17 UEs and hit 18 winners and said it was his worst match so far. It must have to do with his feeling on court as well as the rhythm he could not sustain…interesting…

      • While my feeling during the match with Kohls was that Rafa was so certain in beating him that he unnecesary went for angels and lines sort of to prepare for the finals…I also thought Rafa’s win over Kohl was NID whereas I was nervous about Fog as he seems to be extremely motivated when playing Rafa… 🙂

        • I agree with nats about never feeling that kohls could beat Rafa, while being more nervous about Fog. It’s true that Fog has weapons that kohls does not, including 3 wins against Rafa last year.

          I don’t think Rafa felt nervous against kohls even though he was not at his best.

    • Very common for stats to be misleading. Talking about these two matches, one point is that fog is much faster than kohls and is a better counterpuncher from the backhand side. Tougher to end rallies with winners against Fog esp when you play with so much topspin. Fog also dictates play a lot more so rafa often had to grind out the points…

  9. There is quite a divergence of opinions here which I suspect are governed by how much faith you have in the resurgent Rafa. Speaking for myself, I still feel nervous he might at any moment retreat back into his shell. I was surprised he rated his performance yesterday as ‘poor – I didn’t get the impression he was struggling at all.

    I like Natashao’s take on that match ?

  10. I worry that Rafa might revert back to his not real self. That’s why I don’t take anything for granted, even in this final.

    I hope that Rafa comes out playing better than he did in the semis. Nishi is a much tougher opponent than kohls.

    I saw some of Nishi and Paire, but it’s hard to judge from that match because I think the outcome was a foregone conclusion.

  11. BIG HOLD! absolutely no hesitation! look at how authoritative he was in that situation.. took matters completely into his own hands. VAMOS! bring it on

  12. Nishikor’s forehand was one fire… Flattened out his forehand DTL and then created such an acute angle on his forehand CC…well done.

    Rafa must maintain his court positioning and continue to press Nishi… keep going for deep, heavy ROS Rafa

  13. Playing better than usual but sweating so much and continued failures to consolidate breaks are a big concern win or lose today.

  14. When Rafa serves well he shows how unbeatable he really is on clay.

    Still needs work for consistency but that save from love forty down was all serve.

  15. Awesome serve! Nishi is spreading the court really well and not giving Rafa opportunities to hit those destructive forehands DTL…Rafa must create more opportunities …

  16. Pure class, Rafa! Mental toughness, strong serve on key points and never give up warrior attitude! Love it!

    First set for Rafa!
    Vamos Champ!

  17. Need to iron out those inconsistencies… Cut down those forehand errors a bit and hit the inside out harder because Nishi is waiting for opportunities to attack from his forehand..

    Rafa, BE CAREFUL here…in the first two service games

  18. Rafa is forever like this! I guess I’ve to get used to this Rafa, always making life difficult for himself! From 40-0 he’s able to lose his serve!

  19. The brilliant CC backhand set it up and there we gooooo BOOM inside in, followed by an easy forehand volley put away! There is the break! Rafaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

  20. FABULOUS combo! body serve, boom inside out forehand!

    Another tough rally, good defending , excellent backhand CC! Adv Rafa

    Oh wow, amazing backhand DTL winner from Nishi

  21. I am so happy to see rafa playing like his. The results shall take care of themselves. Opponents need to dread the fearhand once more? Vaaamos

  22. Rafa has to fight so hard to win these days. I’m sure the peak Rafa would beat this Nishi quite handily. Credit to Rafa though, despite not at his best he’s still able to fight hard to win or gives himself good chances to win.

  23. Nishi has run out of ideas on how to handle this version of Rafa.

    All Rafa has to do now his keep a cool head.

  24. :/ That was poor judgement on that volley…the ball was coming slowly and he had plenty of time to judge… he just did not want to hit the volley it seemed…

    4-3 ! Bad

  25. Rafa only shaky today the three games after he broke serve.

    That, and the excessive sweating in cool conditions tells me he is still anxious but just overall doing a better job of managing it than last year.

    His remaining lack of consistencies nerves (anxiety) nothing more.

    Come on Rafa!!!!

  26. Tell me about it! But Rafa did not do enough and Nishi was the aggressive one.

    Why can’t Rafa close out matches? This is maddening.

  27. Five down ✌ ✌ ✌ ✌ ✌!
    The last man standing takes the prize: Rafa lifts the Barcelona trophy for the 9th time !!!!!!!!!

    ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

    Vaaaaaaaaamooooooooos Raaaaaaaaafaaaaaaaaa !!!!!!!!!

  28. Winning the title in Barcelona today means that Rafa is:
    ¤ the first man to win the Barcelona tournament 9 times;
    ¤ the first man to win 3 tournaments at least 9 times each (FO & MC Masters & Barcelona);
    ¤ now tied with Guillermo Vilas for most clay court titles (49) in the Open Era.
    ? to Rafa !!!!!!!!!

  29. These matches just serve to toughen Rafa up. Heis verrrrrrrrry close to being the relentless Rafa we all know and love!

    Vamos Rafa!

  30. even the stats look good…21 winners to 18 UE against a player who is very fast.

    We know he can easily go one gear up from here…even then he won in straight sets!

    SO admirable how he has stood firm in the face of adversity all week! Did not surrender a set!

    GAME ON !!! Rafa is getting there , BIG TIME

  31. Yessss! Rafa in 2 it is! Beautiful tennis by the King of Clay beating qualty in-form opponent!

    So proud of you, Rafa!
    Vamooosssss!

    • Absolutely Hawkeye! Why not?! We can surely talk about it now!

      MAdrid and Rome are very very important. He will likely run into Novak…let’s see how much ground he has gained on him… He is already ready for the rest of the field

    • haha… He is getting closer and closer…. he can perhaps take a set now ! He needs to get more consistent , surely. Novak has a defense-offense balance which none of his other opponents possess. Novak’s ROS and his ability to make Rafa play so many high quality shots will be a next level challenge.

      Rafa is mentally and physically very strong now. His forehand is doing damange and all he needs is a bit of consistency.

      His serve was a lot better than it was in the MC final! Progress there too. His ROS is close to the vintage Rafa level and I am not worried about it.

      Continuing improving the serve and ironing out those inconsistencies. Anything is possible then.

      • Nah, not only a set! It depends how they come out to play. Nishi is quick, even quicker than Djoko on clay and he takes the ball even earlier. Nishi can be scarily good from both wings, his BH is more scary and more lethal than Djoko’s.

        What Djoko has over Nishi is his precision and consistency. As long as Rafa can play aggressively, moves forward often and not cede too much ground to Djoko, Rafa CAN beat Djoko. Of course, the main thing is still how Rafa controls his nerve when playing against Djoko.

        • Lucky,

          I agree with your take on Nishi and Novak and the different challenges they present for Rafa. Nishi reminded me today of just how quick he can be and how early he takes the ball. But Novak does have the accuracy and most important of all, the consistency. So it was a good test for Rafa. I think it might be interesting to see how Rafa will do if he meets Novak in Madrid or Rome. This is a very different Rafa than the one he faced even in I/W.

  32. Congrats Rafa and fans!!! Its been quite some time since we’ve been so gleeful on a Sunday now tow in a row!!! This is so much more than I can ask for! Nishi tried but he couldn’t….could this be a great sign of things to come?!!! I hope so.

    Good luck Rafa for the rest of the clay court season. Keep improving on your serves and your nerves; continue to trust your game, improve you bp conversion stats and hold on to those service games!!!! If you do then RG is yours!!!! Great Sunday for me once again!!……hehe!!!

    VAmos, Rafa!!!

  33. I got really nervous watching the match. I really wanted Rafa to close it out in two sets. That’s what I predicted, with only a caveat that it might go to a third if Rafa had some major lapses. I just wanted it to end!

    I am really happy that Rafa won another title! So important for his confidence! Now we will see how he does in Madrid and Rome. More good results would be a good thing!

    Rafa did raise his level of play, as I expected he would. This was his best match of the tournament. It’s a good thing, because Nishi came out playing well.

    What I liked is how Rafa seemed to sense the moment in the first set when he was up 5-4 and went after Nishi to break him. He took the initiative and became very aggressive. It worked and he got the first set with the break! That is what I like to see! Then in the second set, I thought that Rafa took it to another level. It was high quality stuff from both guys, but Rafa was clearly starting to feel it. He was getting into a good rhythm with his groundstrokes.

    Rafa also showed some real mental strength in this match in fighting off some break points. He is getting better and better.

    Rafa needs to work on his serve and break point conversions and just keep on keeping on. It’s all starting to come together.

    As for RG, I don’t want to get ahead of myself. I am taking it one tournament at a time for now.

    Well done, Rafa!

  34. Thank you Rafa for for winning in straight sets and sparing your fans from a nerve janging TB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    As hard as he tried Rafa could not conceal his joy and happiness at regaining his crown at Barcelona. For two weeks in a row you have treated us to the welcome sight of seeing you bite on the trophy.

    Onwards and upwards.

  35. Taking down Novak is going to be a big test. We will see where Rafa ends up in the draw for Madrid. Then we will know if he has to face Novak sooner or later. But Novak is the big challenge. I also have to believe that he will want to reassert himself at Madrid. It’s not like Novak is going anywhere! He will be intent on doing well.

    I do think that Rafa may well meet Novak in Madrid or Rome. You can’t avoid the #1 player! I am not yet ready to say how he will do. Not making any predictions. I think Rafa is ready to face just about anyone else.

    Again, I don’t want to get too carried away. RG is some weeks off and there is a lot of tennis to be played. It would be wonderful if Rafa can continue to win and have good results.

    • tbh i am not that keen on him playing nole in madrid. the more wins he can garner in a row the better. am hoping nole gets taken down by someone else. of course the best thing possible would be for rafa to beat nole there but i am not counting on it especially as the surface and altitude doesn’t suit rafa so well at madrid. better he plays him in rome with
      momentum in his favour.

      • Nole hates Madrid tourney! I say better to meet him sooner than later and work on further improvements! Rafa’s game must be further adjusted to beat Djokovic and the only way of doing so is by playing him.

        I don’t want Rafa to fear any player! He overcomes his fears by beating those guys who took him down in 2015! Nole is no exception!

        Vamos Rafa! Get your King of Clay crown back!

  36. just looked up stan’s results for last year. he lost in madrid in the 3rd round and in the semis of rome. that means he could pick up quite a lot of points in madrid. given there is 545 points between them and rafa is defending final points in madrid then it will be hard for him to take over the #4 spot if stan goes deep in madrid.

    • still, i can remember being desperate in 2013 for him to get the #4 ranking from ferrer for rg. he went and got it but ended up on the same side of the draw as nole while ferrer had an easy ride to the final on the other side. can remember cursing when i saw the rg draw and wishing he was still #5

      • please please please let nole be on the other side of the rg draw….!!
        rafa really mustn’t play him before the semis….!

        • But Rafa beat Djoker in the SF in 2013 and went on to win the title. I’ve decided not to worry about things I have no control over, whatever will be will be.

    • Amy,

      Thanks for looking up stan’s results from last year. I heard that he had less points to defend, but I could not remember how far he went in Madrid. Rafa has more points to defend at Madrid, but only quarterfinal points at Rome. It’s going to be tight to try and get the #4 ranking before RG. It depends on whether Rafa can defend his Madrid points and then get a great result in Rome.

      One thing I do know – I do not want Rafa to face Novak in the quarterfinals st RG again this year. But we have no control over what happens. All Rafa can do is keep winning.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Skip to toolbar