Australian Open third-round previews and picks: Nadal vs. Sela, Federer vs. Seppi

January 22, 2015 Ricky Dimon Match previews 0

Rafa vs DolgopolovRafael Nadal will be hoping to bounce back from a tough five-setter against Tim Smyczek when he takes the court two days later to face Dudi Sela. Roger Federer is also looking for a place in the third round as he collides with Andreas Seppi on Friday.

Dudi Sela vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Since Wimbledon last summer, Nadal has been plagued by physical problems and early exits from tournaments. More of the same almost continued on Wednesday night, when the Spaniard went up against qualifier Tim Smyczek. An ill Nadal came within one game of losing before overcoming the American 6-2, 3-6, 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-5. The match lasted four hours and 12 minutes, but a clutch world No. 3 looked better late in the fifth than he did in sets two and three.

Nadal’s reward is what should be a favorable draw on Friday against another diminutive opponent in Sela. As the previous round suggests, however, nothing is a sure thing. Like Smyczek, Sela is clean ball-striker who can play on top of the baseline while minimizing mistakes. The 106th-ranked Israeli wields one of the sweetest one-handed backhands on tour, but it has never been tested by Nadal and it may not be able to withstand the favorite’s constant bombardment of powerful topspin. Unless Nadal is for some reason below 100 percent once again, he should cruise through the first-ever meeting between the two veterans.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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Andreas Seppi vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Seppi, on the other hand, have an extensive head-to-head history heading into Friday’s third-round clash. And to say things have not gone well for the Italian would be a massive understatement. He is 0-10 lifetime against the Swiss and 1-21 in total sets. The two veterans have not faced each other since the 2013 Shanghai Masters, where Federer rolled 6-4, 6-3. Their only previous Grand Slam encounter came at this Australian Open in 2009, when the eventual runner-up prevailed 6-1, 7-6(4), 7-5.

Fedspi
The scare was not quite along the lines of Nadal’s, but Federer also had to overcome a deficit in round two. Melbourne’s second seed managed to maintain momentum from an opening win over Yen-Hsun Lu by fighting past Simone Bolelli 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. Seppi booked his spot in the last 32 with victories over Denis Isomin (in five sets) and Jeremy Chardy (in four). As the results indicate, the world No. 46 has no offensive weapons that can seriously trouble Federer. He is a solid player who can make opponents beat themselves, but that is not going to happen with the 17-time major champion in this kind of form.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 8-10 games

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83 Comments on Australian Open third-round previews and picks: Nadal vs. Sela, Federer vs. Seppi

  1. If Rafa is okay from whatever was ailing him, then I will go with Ricky’s pick.

    Again I agree with Ricky regarding Fed’s match. I think he will have an easy time of it with Seppi.

    Reply

  2. I really think Rafa does better under sun and dislikes night matches but in this case it was necessary due to the fact that he really needs more recovery time…

    I believe Rafa overcoming his second round numerous issues well known to the rest of the world will serve as his motivation trigger…he should deal with Sela in three…and I mean it…he SHOULD speed up the process…he must not allow another long ridiculous match…

    Rafa in three with one competitive set…

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  3. I had a feeling that Rafa would want a night match to get as much recovery time as possible. I don’t know if I will be up early enough to see it.

    As long as Rafa is okay, then he should get it done in three sets. I don’t expect a blowout.

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  5. one benefit, although at an enormous price, is that yesterday’s match was worth two slam matches in terms of getting Rafa match-hardened

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  6. I think Sela will make Rafa sweat, at least for a while. Everyone seems to play out of their skins when they know he’s vulnerable, and while Dudi probably lacks the weapons to actually beat Rafa, I think he can take him to at least a tie break and maybe even nick a set.

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    • cannot watch…but I had a feeling this one won’t be easy for the fed! seppi must be making him hit too many shots..

      break pnt for fed

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  10. The match was already in progress when ESPN started showing it. The broadcast was delayed due to a basketball match that went long. So I haven’t seen much of Fed, but the ESPN commentators are saying that this is not the Fed that we normally would be seeing.

    I also heard that the weather is cooler there, 72 degrees now but with lots of wind. From what I have seen Seppi is really playing extremely well.

    There goes another prediction!

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  11. Fed needed that break. Now he seems to be settling in more. I wonder if it’s going to be like his previous match, where he lost the first set and then blew the guy off the court.

    Darren Cahill said that he saw Rafa in the locker room and he said that he was feeling good. But Cahill then said, what is Rafa going to say, that he feels lousy? But he thought that Rafa seemed to be okay.

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  12. I was watching in disbelief as Seppi was serving for a two set lead. Unfortunately for him, he got tight and Fed broke him. Now back on serve.

    I certainly didn’t expect to see this.

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  14. I don’t believe what I am seeing! Seppi just won the second set!

    There’s nobody here talking about this, but we could see a huge upset in the making. Seppi is just playing out of his skin. Unreal!

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    • this is incredible! seppi is doing such a fantastic job . Looks like fed is rattled. He can sometimes be vulnerable against retrievers and counter-punchers when they are playing aggressively from the baseline.

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  18. Yes, we should not get carried away. Can Seppi keep it up and manage to get the upset win?

    But now Fed will have to do it in five. He gets a chance to play a nice long match.

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  20. This is some match! I think Seppi needs to win the fourth set tb and close it out. If it goes to five, then Fed will win.

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  23. I voted for Seppi def Federer as a joke!!!! I wish I had put some money on it. I can’t believe it. Fed’s saviour, his serve, wasn’t there today. That’s what usually gets him out of trouble.

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  28. That last shot by Seppi was freaking unreal! He kept it together! I was watching and thinking that he was surely going to crumble with the crowd cheering Fed on all the way.

    I am in shock right now.

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  29. I wanted to be flippant and say Federer def InSeppid because Seppi’s game always looks insipid, everything that never in my wildest dreams did I think he would beat Federer. In fact I decided it wasn’t worth waking up for.

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  30. Seppi played the match of his life. He didn’t let the pressure get to him. I was thinking for sure he would fold after losing that third set. But he just kept playing so well.

    I wonder where he got the belief that he could beat Fed after all this time. It’s why I watch this sport.

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  31. Atleast we Rafans are spared that Fed wont get to beat Rafa had both gotten there given Rafas vulnerability. Imagine the Fed fans crowing about it all along post that disregarding Rafas lack of match play and fitness.

    That said, Feds loss is a shocker. Congrats Seppi!!

    Rafa really can make it to the final if he plays well and smart. Murray and Berdy are both in very good form, so Rafa wont have it easy. Can Grigor do us a favour and take Murray out 🙂

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  32. Bound to happen. Federer’s had one too many battle royales at Melbourne Park in the past few years. He’s been struggling in the first week, quite a lot. Anyway he had no realistic shot of winning here. His only real shot at a major is at Wimbledon provided he manages to stay healthy. Losing here might just help the cause. After all, it was the match against Murray in 2013 that led his downfall in that year-at least, that triggered the chain of recurring problems he sustained.
    But all in all, looks the final slots are pretty much booked. If they’re going to play two defensive baseliners though, it had better be a drawn out affair. At least that is entertaining to watch for the sheer stupidity of the 40-shot rallies on a hard court.

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  33. I think it’s bad for rafa! now there are possibilities of nick kyrgios or murray for semis and these are much more harder than roger as an opponent!

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  34. Totally underwhelmed by Fed’s loss, not surprised at all. Seppi played his usual insipid game with a few inspired shots delivered at crucial junctures. That Seppi won is more in indictment on Fed, in my opinion. That said, well done, Seppi.

    Fed is a #2 by default, no way he is ever beating Rafa again, unless Rafa has blisters, has a busted leg, has cramps, bad back, bad wrist, all on the same day…………….

    It’s only the commies who were hyping up Fed’s chances. Hopes spring eternal…….

    I hope Kyrgios gest to meet Rafa, there is a H2H score to level…………

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  35. When Seppi’s match-winning shot went in I thought, “There goes, Novak’s fanbase just doubled over…….and then some.”

    #Nolefam

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  46. I really liked rafa’s performance! Just watched it. Thank God the weekend is here and I will be able to watch his next match.

    I think rafa played a very good match. He definitely is improving with every match. Today his return positioning was a little deeper in the court and he was comfortably generating decent length on his return. The idea was to get the heavily spun forehand returns to sela’s one-handed backhand and that worked well.

    I wrote it before too and I still think rafa has worked specifically on his backhand DTL. Today he hit some really sweet ones and he is developing that into a real weapon and not just a shot of last resort. If rafa can develop a consistent backhand DTL , he will be matchless from the baseline! He perhaps has the best CC backhand when in full flow. I really hope he is working on it to evolve it into a weapon.

    Rafa’s forehand was very good too but I still think there is significant room for improvement in terms of being aggressive. Anyway, rafa is spreading the court really well and stepping in nicely to flatten out forehands. he will start hitting it harder as the tournament goes on.

    I am most happy about the great length rafa was able to keep on his running shots! That is the cornerstone of his game and gives him most confidence. I think rafa is really heading in the right direction.

    I am more concerned about Murray and not that much about Kyrgios. Well, ,for now, lets just be focused on the next match,no?

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    • to avoid confusion regarding the comments on rafa’s backhand, I want to say that even though rafa has developed his backhand DTL quite a lot over the years and has even used it to finish points off when playing well but the shot has not quite been in his arsenal. I hope he is able to incorporate that shot into his arsenal just like he added the forehand DTL which now has become tennis’s most destructive shot from the baseline,

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    • I really try not to look too far ahead. Rafa has to get to the semis first. It’s not about who he will face, it’s about winning the next two matches.

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  48. vamosrafa,

    Thanks for your analysis and thoughts on Rafa’s performance. I haven’t seen the match yet. The tennis channel is replaying the matches all day. I woke up at 7:30 am and turned on the tv. There was nothing on, so I came online and saw that Rafa won in straight sets. Good news! A more routine match.

    I look forward to checking it out and seeing how his form is progressing. I would have preferred that Rafa meet Gasquet next because he has no weapons to trouble him, but it’s going to be Anderson. Having a straight sets win is good for Rafa so he doesn’t have to push himself after that five setter. At least he’s feeling better now. That’s what is important.

    I am trying not to think ahead. I know that Murray is cruising through his early round matches and the commentators are saying he’s looking really good. But he hasn’t been tested yet. The semis are a long way off. With Fed out, it will be interesting to see who gets through that part of the draw. There’s a lot of tennis still to be played and I know that Rafa is not looking ahead.

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  49. I really enjoyed seeing Rafa’s post match interview on court. He’s always charming and funny, but he was even more endearing. I love how he wouldn’t give Courier a number as to his fitness level! Good for him! He knows that he’s a work in progress right now.

    It was just good to see him relaxed, feeling good and smiling after that win!

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  50. RT @BackSwings: “Rafa’s outfit is my favourite men’s outfit of the #AusOpen. It’s basically the male version of Serena’s, my favourite women’s outfit.”

    Reply

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