Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Zverev

In a second straight major there will be a Big 3-free semifinal showdown.

Following last year’s U.S. Open clash between Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev will battle in a surprising Australian Open semifinal on Friday night.

Thiem and Zverev will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers, with Thiem holding a 6-2 lead in the head-to-head series. They have faced each other three times on hard courts and the Austrian pulled ahead 2-1 in those contests with a 7-5, 6-3 victory in the semis of the Nitto ATP Finals this past fall. Both of their previous Grand Slam encounters have come at Roland Garros, where Thiem took care of business on his preferred clay-court surface in 2016 and 2018.

“We’re good friends,” the world No. 5 said. “I’m happy for him, as well, that he’s playing so [well] here. He made his breakthrough at a Grand Slam. We have no secrets from each other. We played so many times, also on very special occasions…at the ATP Finals (semis), French Open quarters. It’s a nice rivalry we have. It’s great that we add an Australian Open semifinals.”

Zverev’s 2018 French Open run marked his first quarterfinal appearance at a slam and now he is through to his first semifinal. From basically out of nowhere after struggling mightily at the ATP Cup, the seventh-ranked German has defeated Marco Cecchinato, Egor Gerasimov, Fernando Verdasco, Andrey Rublev, and Stan Wawrinka.

Whereas Zverev surrendered only one set to Wawrinka, Thiem’s trip to the last four was much tougher. The fifth seed needed five sets to get past Alex Bolt in round two and his quarterfinal against Rafael Nadal on Wednesday was a 7-6(3), 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) thriller that lasted four hours and 10 minutes. Thiem also beat Adrian Mannarino, Taylor Fritz, and Gael Monfils. The 26-year-old will play in his fifth major semifinal (first outside of Roland Garros) and is bidding for a third final appearance.

“(It’s) going to be a close match again,” Thiem assured. “Same if two top-10 players play each other semis of a slam. The deciding moments are very small; small margins. I’m looking forward to it. I try to regenerate as good as possible and then try to be ready 100 percent for Friday.”

Zverev will have no physical problems after cruising through five matches, but the intangibles are question marks. In addition to struggling against Thiem, he has zero experience this deep in Grand Slams.

“I’ve won Masters Series, World Tour Finals,” the seventh-ranked German noted. “But the Grand Slams were always where I kind of even wanted it too much. I was doing things in a way (that was) too professional. I was not talking to anybody. I wasn’t going out with friends. I wasn’t having dinner. I was just really almost too, too focused.

“(I) changed that a little bit this week. I’m doing much more things outside the court. I also was playing [so] bad at (the) ATP Cup that I didn’t have any expectations. I wasn’t really expecting myself in the semifinals.”

Even though Zverev has already overachieved in Melbourne and he remains an underdog, the pressure undoubtedly ratchets up in the semifinals. Thiem knows what it takes to reach a major title match and his impressive hard-court form over the past 11 months should carry him to another win over Zverev.

Pick: Thiem in 4

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31 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Zverev

  1. I hope for Thiem to win and be in the final. If Thiem is in the final, he may have the experience to beat Djoko (at the FO) to help him get his first slam title.

    I wish Thiem all the best, for I find him a pleasant person and a hard working player. After beating the big three guys so many times, it’s only right he gets to win a slam at age 26, when he’s in his prime.

    • What Lucky said. 🙂 Thiem’s pleasant and talented, strong and hard working. I’d love to see him win a slam. He’s waited long enough. Zverev has a formidable serve though when it’s on and good groundies. I think this’ll be a tough match and maybe go 5 sets.

  2. IMO Thiem would stand a better chance of beating Nole , i dont think Zverev could sustain that level over best of five sets ….

  3. Thiem in 4, if current tournament form holds true– he seems to just be playing unbelievable tennis atm. I think he holds a shot at Djokovic barring fatigue…

  4. This match looks so boring, so many Long rallies and looks so slow moving. Thiem looks lethargic, perhaps the match with Rafa took a lot out of him, he’s making so many UEs. If he continues like this, Sasha will be in the final!

  5. As I kept saying: Dominik looked better than he really was mainly due to Rafa’s poor play in key moments! Rafa’s nervousness got to him and he failed to take numerous opportunities given by Dominik which other players will accept with gratitude…Dominik stands no chance of beating Alex with such lapses let alone Nole who is the king of AO…Dominik will have to be much better in this match if he wants to win..I am not saying he can’t but will Alex let him…let’s see..,

  6. Small patches of brilliance followed by large patches of average play. This level just won’t cut against djoko. Both have to massively increase their level to take on djoko. The match is being played with lack of energy n pace

  7. Why does Thiem look so nervous? Is it because, like Rafa, he’s so eager or too eager to win this AO? Sasha looks the calmer of the two and makes fewer errors.

    I agree, looking at the way they play now, they’re not going to beat Djoko in the final.

  8. Sasha seems to be playing better so I hope he can win this quick and conserves energy for the final. Thiem really looks a bit off color, and I doubt he can pose any challenge to Djoko in the final even if he wins this SF.

    • Yep, my thoughts as as well…Don’t think Zverev is playing great at all, but Thiem just looks vulnerable and mentally weak… the last thing they want is a five setter. I still think Dominik will be more inclined to test Novak and will be fighting for ranking points and the Prize Money whereas Zverev probably never expected to reach the final anyway…

  9. Good, Thiem wins the third set, so come on now Thiem, wins the fourth set as well ASAP and stops wasting energy playing a fifth set.

    I guess Thiem is nervous because he really wants to reach a HC slam final and it’s only Sasha standing in his way now. I do feel he’s not nervous vs Rafa in the QF because he’s prepared to grind and determined to win after so many encounters. I think if he’s in the final, he’ll concentrate on the match and on beating Djoko rather than worrying about anything else. He has played against and has beaten Djoko in a slam (FO) so I think he more or less should be able to calm his nerve and plays his game.

  10. Thiem hasn’t played too well, but then he’s never been the most consistent player. Maybe he’s tired from the Nadal match (also pointing to his stomach as if he’s sick), but I think he’s also just struggling with how best to play Zverev. He knows he has more weapons from baseline, but in his haste to finish him off sometimes he is making a lot of UE’s.

    Some credit has to go to Zverev, who is consistently serving bombs and is very hard to hit through.

  11. Sasha plays like a Delpo and Thiem like a Stan, both of them are exactly the kind of players who can blow Djoko off the court; what they need is consistency, something Stan used to have when he beat Djoko at the slams.

    Thiem looks ok now physically, I guess it’s just a stomach upset or discomfort, not injury I think.

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