Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas

For various reasons, Daniil Medvedev’s three most entertaining matchups are against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Stefanos Tstisipas.

With Nadal and Tsitsipas squaring off in the other quarterfinal in the bottom half of the Australian Open draw, Medvedev was always guaranteed to have an intriguing semifinal showdown on his hands. And he could get Djokovic in the final, as well.

As for the semis, that opponent turned out to be Tsitsipas after the Greek stunned Nadal from two sets down on Wednesday night. Tsitsipas looked down and out early but somehow recovered for a 3-6, 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-4, 7-5 triumph after four hours and five minutes.

To say it has not been an easy path for the 22-year-old would be a gross understatement. And that often seems to be the case with Tsitsipas, which may be part of the reason why he has never taken the next step into a Grand Slam final. Five-setters in the early rounds are nothing out of the ordinary, and he played another one during second-round action Down Under–holding off Thanasi Kokkinakis 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-1, 6-7(5), 6-4. On the bright side, the world No. 6 got a walkover from Matteo Berrittini in the fourth round so that should help him somewhat in the energy department.

Medvedev also endured a five-setter in the third round, but that wasn’t exactly a physical contest against Filip Krajinovic and the outcome never seemed to be in doubt. The 25-year-old had a mid-match hiccup from completely out of nowhere but easily dominated the fifth set 6-0. He has otherwise disposed of Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Carballes Baena, Mackenzie McDonald, and Andrey Rublev in sraights.

Dating back to last fall, Medvedev is riding a 19-match winning streak and he is a ridiculous 11-0 in his last 11 matches against top 10 opponents.

None of those wins during the current surge have come against Tsitsipas, but they do have plenty of history with each other–both on the court and off.

Their bad blood–which has simmered down a bit in recent years–dates back to the 2018 Miami Masters, where they had a heated exchange following Medvedev’s 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory.

Following a loss to his nemesis at the 2019 Shanghai Masters, Tsitsipas called Medvedev’s game “boring.”

“I don’t mean to be rude at all, actually, but it’s just boring,” the Greek assessed. “It’s boring. It’s so boring that…I don’t know. He has a huge serve, and if you manage to get it back it’s just countless balls inside the court.”

Tsitsipas backtracked after upsetting Nadal on Wednesday night.

“(I) might have said in the past that he plays boring, but I don’t really think he plays boring,” the 22-year-old said, bringing up the subject without being prompted. “He just plays extremely smart and outplays you. He’s somebody I really need to be careful with and just take my chances.”

Chances have been few and far between for Tsitsipas in this particular matchup. Medvedev is dominating the head-to-head series 5-1, including 1-0 in Grand Slams after prevailing 6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 at the 2018 U.S. Open. However, every one of their matches has been competitive (the two straight-setters were no more lopsided than 7-6, 6-4) and Tsitsipas took their most recent encounter at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals.

That result in London came when when Medvedev was a shadow of his real self, having worn down mentally and physically on the heels of his brilliant summer run. Now, of course, Tsitsipas is facing Medvedev at the Russian’s absolute peak. Medvedev is on a 19-match winning streak that includes an unbelievable 11-0 record against top 10 opponents.

The fact that Tsitsipas is 0-2 lifetime in major semis and Medvedev has been to a final (2019 U.S. Open) further tips the scales in favor of the No. 4 seed.

Ricky pick: Medvedev in 4

Cheryl pick: Medvedev in 4

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20 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Medvedev in four sets. He’s in the form of his life now, and he’s a bad match up for Tsitsipas, so Medvedev will win this match.

    • The betting odds are even..1.8 djoko .1.9 med. Djoko is going to have a super hard time on Sunday. It can go 5..how much shenanigans will djoko throw on sunday but watch out..med is a mean machine .will have none of it

  2. I hope Med wins this in straights and in fine fashion to gain enough confidence to pose some strong and credible opposition (read: to give a hard time) to Djokovic on Sunday…whether he is able to beat Novak in his home tourney is another issue…but I doubt it…

  3. this one-sided match proves two things: Medvedev is playing great and makes this an easy pass… Rafa’s game was no where near his usual self when allowing this Tsistsi to beat him after two sets lead.. I am still very much upset with Rafa’s ridiculous loss but even if he had managed to squeeze the win he would have been outplayed by Medvedev…I would still have preferred watching Rafa vs Med than this…

    • Yeah, I couldn’t see the match but I am upset that he lost having dominated and then apparently lost 3 easy points in the tb including 2 overheads. Since when does Rafa miss 2 overheads in succession!
      He really should have won in straights.
      I don’t like that he is losing so many winnable tbs including some when he is up on the score. He really needs to address this problem with Moya.
      During RG he sometimes got tired in the 3rd set and made mistakes. I wonder if that was a part of it? His levels of fitness aren’t where they need to be since the long layoff for the pandemic.

  4. I see Med said he got nervous at the close of the third set because the scoreline was so similar to the match between Tsitsi and Rafa!
    Rafa really should have won it!
    Still, it goes to show that if you do start to get tight, even if you are dominating, a match can change suddenly. What Med has, and Rafa doesn’t, is a big serve to see him through dodgy moments.

    • True, but I didn’t think Rafa’s serve was the problem in that match. In fact, I thought it bailed him out on a few occasions. Of course it’s not as good as Med’s but If Rafa hits those easy overheads in the TB, he wins that match in straights.

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