Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

January 26, 2016 Ricky Match previews 293

Another installment of the Novak Djokovic-Roger Federer rivalry will take place in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday. Djokovic is the defending champion of this event, while Federer is ultimately looking for his first winner’s trophy Down Under since 2010.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 45th time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday. The head-to-head series is all tied up at 22-22 after a pair of 2015 World Tour Finals showdowns failed to settle the score. Federer took a brief 22-21 lead by upsetting Djokovic 7-5, 6-2 during round-robin action before the Serb came out on top when the stakes were raised in the final with a 6-3, 6-4 triumph.
Djoker
The two double-digit Grand Slam winners have faced each other three times at the Australian Open. Federer cruised 6-2, 7-5, 6-3 in the 2007 fourth round before Djokovic’s breakout tournament–resulting in his first major title in 2008–saw him upset the Swiss 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(5) during semifinal action. The world No. 1 has won thee slam matches in a row at his rival’s expense since losing to Federer in the 2012 Wimbledon semifinals. Djokovic prevailed in the 2014 Wimbledon final (five sets), the 2015 Wimbledon final (four sets), and the 2015 U.S. Open final (four sets).

“Any round feels like finals because of the fact that we are–you know, big rivals,” Djokovic commented. “We (have) played so many times against each other. There’s a lot of tension. There’s a lot at stake. I’m expecting a great fight.”

This blockbuster battle was almost denied in improbable fashion by massive underdog Gilles Simon. The Frenchman benefited from a shocking 100 unforced errors off the Djokovic racket to push their fourth-round affair two five sets, but the favorite finally survived 6-3, 6-7(1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. That was preceded by straight-set defeats of Hyeon Chung, Quentin Halys, and Andreas Seppi, and followed by a 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 rout of Kei Nishikori on Tuesday.

Federer has endured no scares of any kind. The 34-year-old Swiss dropped only one set through his first five matches and he bounced back nicely from a minor hiccup against Grigor Dimitrov to win that tussle 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4. Federer also boasts straight-set victories over Nikoloz Basilashvili, Alexandr Dolgopolov, David Goffin, and Tomas Berdych.
Fed
“I feel like I’m competitive at the top,” the third seed assured. “I can beat all the guys on tour. It’s nice now that in the last three slams that I’ve been as consistent as I have been. I’m playing good tennis; fun tennis for me, anyway. I really enjoy being able to come to the net more like back in the day. So I’m very pleased.”

But he can’t be pleased seeing Djokovic on the other side of the net, as opposed to Simon or Nishikori. Despite the relative competitiveness of the recent matches, Djokovic has simply had Federer’s number of late. Nobody turns defense into offense better than the world No. 1, an aspect of his game that can expertly counter Federer’s aggressiveness and net-rushing. Expect another high-quality contest, with an edge going to Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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76 Comments on Australian Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

  2. Fed in four.

    Nole’s face looked exhausted and drawn after beating Kei and he admitted he didn’t even practise yesterday.

    Fed looks fresh and lightening fast playing as good or better than 10 years ago.

    He will prove it tomorrow.

    It is the AO final.

    The rest is a glorified exho.

    Reply

  6. am still going with nole..maybe the match has to go long but if it does go 5 then nole wins.
    he may be tired but he has the mental advantage in the rivalry.
    is the court really fast enough for fed’s serve to outweigh the brilliance of nole’s ros? wouldn’t have thought so..

    Reply

    • Amy ,

      I am sticking with Novak. For the reasons you mentioned above. He is mentally tough and has proven that he can win even when not at his best.

      We seem to go through this every time when fed and Novak meet in a slam. So far fed has been unable to get it done. Every time we hear that fed is looking unbeatable, this time he will win, etc. But it has not happened. Novak is looking vulnerable, not playing well, he looks beatable, whatever. But it did not happen.

      I am sticking with Novak.

      Reply

  8. One thing that could maybe work in Roger’s favour is this match being a SF and not a Final. Maybe he will play with more calm unlike the USO final.
    Fed should throw out all the self doubt out of the window on Thursday night. Maybe then he will have a good chance to win, because Nole will be ready.
    Allez Roger!!!
    Ajde Nole!

    May the best man win.

    Reply

    • It might help being a GS semi not a final. Fed has looked good at this FO. And perhaps if he could turn the tables and win in three. My question is: is the court surface and conditions that much different this year at AO than in the past? They have met in AO SF’s twice and Novak won both times in competitive straight sets.
      2011 AO SF: 76(3) 75 64
      2008 AO SF: 75 63 76(5)
      2011 goes down in tennis history as one of Novak Djokovic’s best season’s. Circumstances in 2008, aside, Novak has been too good and dominant at AO. If anything, I’d guess that Novak wins in straight sets, with an easier score than in the past. I would prefer a five set nail-biter but it doesn’t feel like it this time.

      May the best man win.

      Reply

        • ratcliff, speaking of Freudian slips, how did you feel prior to the 2011 French Open SF where Fed beat Nole.

          I sense a similar upset.

          Nole looks really tired and Fed is poised to strike.

          Plus it looks like the match will be played indoors. May not be an advantage one way or another.

          Reply

          • Yeah, I was high on Nole winning that match, Hawkeye63.

            The advantage is that Nole is mentally stronger more confident and calculating in 2016. Sure, there could be an upset and if there is, I won’t be cheesed off like FO 2011. 😀
            Nole losing AO might work to his advantage. I’ve got my reasons to think it.

          • I do think so. It’s a positive, imo. Other Nole fans disagree. But I’m not a GS counting fan – I don’t believe that’s the be all, end all, metric of…well, won’t even say it for fear of starting a sh!t storm. shh…

            It’s all too subjective to me when the numbers get ridiculously astronomical and they are all still in the game. Even then, when the racquets are hung up, it’s never over. Pick your favorite and run with him.

          • yeah i agree…don’t like goat arguments at all..makes no sense pretending the subjective is objective!
            but i do think that winning RG is VERY important to nole and that he would definitely give up a couple of slams elsewhere for one RG..was just wondering how much he would give up for one title there.
            getting the career slam is a big thing and there’s no question that it’s very important to him too..

          • He’s said what his goal is this year. It’s Olympics and French Open. Maybe it has changed? It’s too much to bite off going for the career slam in 2016 – that’s my feeling and I’d like to dispense with the idea. 2014, I said the same when Nole lost to Stan at AO. This is good because…

            I don’t know what the formula is and I don’t know if Nole would give up a couple slams for one FO – but my own wish for Nole is for the FO title – sooner than later. Certainly if Nole is in the position after this semi, he will drive on to win a 6th AO. And we shall see after that. So many of one GS feels redundant, imo – no matter if it’s Serena, Federer, Rafa, or who is collecting them. Fans get really wrapped up in it and go crazy. It’s not the way I enjoy tennis. My sermon is now over, Amy!

          • preach it ratcliff!
            sorry are we(or I) getting mixed up with terminology? because i thought the career slam was winning all four slams but doesn’t matter when? so all he needs is the french. that’s all i was saying…
            (oh and yes of course he will want to win olympic gold as well)

          • Yes, Career Slam is what my wish is for Nole. He’d have a couple by now if it wasn’t for Rafa!

            Calendar Slam…I don’t care about it. It’s possible but at what price? We’d never hear the end.

          • Meant Nole would have a couple FO’s if not for the greatest of this era on clay.

            Career Slams are nice, once you get all four you go to the head of the class, imo.

            Calendar Slams? They might become commonplace if the format changes in the future to BO3.

  9. Logic indicates Nole in 4. Though, I think Roger knows this can be his last year at the highest level. And that kind of motivation sometimes stand up side by sid with logic. I’d say Roger in 4. 3rd set will mean everything for Roger, EL PAPI!.

    Reply

  10. I’m guessing this is a better chance for Fed than the U.S open match. People need to remember that at his age, recovery time changes. I think playing Novak 3 days earlier is a much better option for him. That being said, I think the most likely result is still Novak in 4 because Fed couldn’t even win 50% of points on 2nd serves against Berdych. It always comes down to Fed’s second serve. Unless points won on that start touching 55% with a 65% or better first serve placement, I don’t see him winning the match. Order of expected results for me:

    Novak in 4
    Novak in 3
    Fed in 4
    Novak in 5
    Fed in 5
    Fed in 3

    Reply

  16. Fed in 4 or Novak in 5.

    Cant decide which i prefer. If it’s Raonic in the final, which opponent is better for Raonic?

    If its either of the other three in the final, I think it makes no difference whether its Novak or Fed.

    Reply

    • Fed is better opponent for Raonic because Djoker has no losses to Milos but either way Raonic will lose if he makes the final.

      Reply

      • You completely know which sentences…
        Of course some of the 100 unforced errors (i really doubt the number) that Djokovic commited in the 4th round were provoked by Simon’s defense.
        Simon’s gameplan in this match was to not give the rhythm that Djoko likes and it simply worked very well most of the match.

        Reply

          • Djokovic and Federer have played each other 44 times. Anyone who is reading this article is a tennis fan and has probably watched many of those 44 matches. There aren’t any tactical secrets. So I have no idea what you are confused about in terms of the analysis.

          • “oh Djokovic made 100 UES, he played so bad”, of course it’s a “basic” analysis because you have to take in consideration other things like the opponent he faced, who is fast around the court and can counter punch very well.
            Simon had already won some sets vs Djoko in previous encounters so calling Simon a “massive” underdog is not true.

          • perhaps you didn’t notice that i picked Djokovic over Nishikori in 3 (nailed it) and have Djokovic over Federer in 4. So I don’t think you should be directing this “100 unforced errors” discussion at me. Direct it at the people who actually fell for the trap and thought he would lose to Nishikori because of it.

          • yeah, i didn’t notice indeed.
            Still, some of the top 100 unforced errors (again I doubt the number because it’s difficult to judge) were somehow forced so it’s not that “shocking” to see Djoko making much more unforced errors than usual + it was a 5 setter too, with many points and long sets displayed.

          • you’re preaching to the choir. I have ALWAYS considered Simon the most underrated player in tennis. Everyone is going to make more errors than usual against him.

            That being said, the eye test does not lie: Djokovic played bad (he even admitted this).

          • yes, he’s one of the most underrated player on tour for obscure reasons.
            I do feel the “aggressive” part of his game is underrated too, he can hit winners from both wings in a good mood vs the right opponent (against Del Bonis in AO rd 3 or against Nadal in Rome 2014 for example).

          • Simon was hitting some insane on the run backhand passes against Djoker.

            He knows when to pull the trigger, and can do so when he wants to.

          • What an athlete Gilles Simon! Love watching him.

            As a cyclist, he’d have beat Christropher Froome or Andy Schleck up Alpe d’Huez!

  18. I think it will be Nole in 4…

    I wish for Fed to win though…and then to go ahead and lose to either Milos (quite possible!) or Andy (less possible!) but I really do not see it happening…mainly due to Fed being 34 years old… 🙂

    expect Nole to show up rejuvenated and ready to RUN…Fed hates running…If Fed manages to avoid long rallies with Nole he does have a chance…

    also, what remains to be seen is the impact of work with Ljubicic…maybe it’s too early for that but let’s wait and see…

    Reply

  19. I’d say Djokovic in 5 although Federer is playing very well and could beat Djoko again with ultra aggressive tennis/net rushing (like in Shanghai 2014). Would need to serve extremely well too.

    Reply

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