Australian Open semifinal preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Federer

It will be an all-Swiss affair when friends and familiar foes Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer square off in the Australian Open semifinals on Thursday. Federer emerged from a quarter of the draw that included Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori.

Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer will be facing each other for the 22nd time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Australian Open title match on Thursday night.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 18-3 and he has never lost to his fellow Swiss on a hard court. All three of Wawrinka’s victories have come on clay; twice at the Monte-Carlo Masters (2009 and 2014) and once on the way to his 2015 French Open triumph. They have not met in more than a full year, as Federer most recently prevailed 7-5, 6-3 in the semis of the 2015 World Tour Finals.

Last season was a tough one for the 35-year-old, with a knee problem sending him tumbling all the way out of the top 16. That left him at the mercy of the Aussie draw, and he found himself in the same quarter as Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori, and Tomas Berdych. Federer got past Berdych (straight sets) and Nishikori (five) before avoiding Murray, who was stunned by unseeded German Mischa Zverev. The 17-time Grand Slam champion promptly ended Zverev’s run 6-1, 7-5, 6-2 in the quarterfinals on Tuesday.

“Against Roger it’s always special because he’s so good,” Wawrinka noted. “He’s the best player of all time. He has answer for everything. But I managed to beat him in a Grand Slam, so we’ll see. Most important is that I step on the court and I play my best tennis…. He’s playing so well since the beginning of the tournament. He had a little bit some hesitation in the [first two] rounds, but since that he’s really flying on the court.”

Wawrinka has progressed in similar fashion. The world No. 4 struggled against Martin Klizan (five sets) and Viktor Troicki (one point from going to a fifth set), but posted more convincing wins over Steve Johnson, Andreas Seppi, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the last four. Wawrinka is through to the semis Down Under for the third time in his career and he is ultimately looking for his second title (2014) and fourth overall at a major.

“I think [Stan] and [Rafael Nadal] know my game (better than anyone else),” Federer commented. “Stan and I practiced so much together. With Rafa, I only practiced once in my life, whereas with Stan, I can’t even keep count anymore. Yeah, I guess those two guys know me very well.”

What Wawrinka knows is that his game does not match up well with that of his countryman. He does not have the heavy topspin to pound away at Federer’s one-handed backhand, which Nadal does with consistency. His backhand down the line can be combatted by Federer’s signature running forehand. Most importantly, Wawrinka lacks belief; he is well away of his futility against Federer on every surface other than clay.

This is not necessarily the 17-time major champion’s “last best” chance to win a major, but it is certainly an amazing opportunity. He won’t let it go to waste–not against Wawrinka at least.

Pick: Federer in 4

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40 Comments on Australian Open semifinal preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Federer

  1. I got Fed in 5. I hope it’s a great match. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stan wins. Fed is playing great, but let’s not forget he has been out for 6 months and he is 35. Stan is usually very good at this time of the tournament. All that being said, I’m going with who I want to win and the sentimental choice of Fed.

  2. Yeah, I don’t necessarily think that they are playing like indoor hard courts. I just don’t think that people should take for granted how much better Roger plays against Rafa, whether he beats him or not, when the courts are fast. I just think it’s ridiculous to say that Roger Federer has “zero chance” of beating anybody when he’s playing well. That being said, I actually think that it’s a 50/50 toss-up between Fed and Stan. I can see why people would think that Roger will wipe the floor with him like he always has on this surface, but this is the Australian Open and Stan always plays so well in the later rounds there and has recently won it. Anyone who could beat the 3-time defending champion Djokovic at the Australian Open on the way to the title has a very, very good shot at beating anyone in the SF!

      • Agreed. When Fed is in the zone, he can cause serious damage to Rafa as well and Rafa knows that too!

        Well, stan’s game stacks up much better against Novak but I agree that this is AO and stan can do wonders here against Roger as well. I’d say Roger is the favourite but if Stan’s baseline game is red hot tomorrow, he may well win it. If the courts really are playing quick, then adv Federer but can’t rule stan the man out.

  3. I would never say that Fed has zero chance of beating Rafa! I do think that it is important to make a distinction between indoor hard courts and even the fast, low bouncing hard courts of the Asian swing, as opposed to outdoor hard courts like st the AO.

    They posted the h2h with Rafa and Dimi and he did beat Rafa in Beijing. I am not sure but I think he also beat him somewhere else. But beating Rafa on courts like in Beijing or Shanghai is different than playing him st the AO.

    I think Rafa will have the answers in the next match with Dimi. As for Fed and Stan, I would not rule out Stan. He has done well at the AO. It is true that he is a tougher matchup for Novak, but if he gets his power game going, he can be dangerous.

    I have to believe that Fed will pull out all the stops to win and get to another slam final.

  4. I’m so sick of listening to Fed’s fake post-match interviews. “I love him, he’s great, I love him blah blah blah”. Wawrinka just calls it like it is.

    C’mon Wawrinka!

  5. Stan not winning this, he looked sluggish from the get go; Fed OTOH, looked so fired up, rearing to go. Fed is beating Stan now with his varieties and net rushing; Stan just continued to camp at the baseline allowing Fed so much space to work with.

    Fed certainly worked on his game esp his footwork during his long break; he’s moving so much better and quicker than Stan could ever dreamed of.

  6. The drop that happened to Fed was literally unbelievable.
    He led 7-5 6-3 1-1, hasn’t been broken all match and then he loses six games in a row doing some crazy stuff like five forehand unforced errors in eight points. However, he seems to be back on the right track. At least, I hope he is.

  7. so fed toughs it out. thought he was going to lose…..
    stan had the better winner to unforced errors ratio in the end which is surprising. usually stan hits lots of winners but also a ton of unforced errors.

  8. Fed seems to have more belief with his bigger racket to play Rafa in another GS final.

    Looking back, he did beat Rafa with his bigger racket in Basel in 2015.
    That was indoor hardcourt, and this is outdoor hardcourt slam.
    Will he be ready for it?

    Hope he does not go back crying second time.

  9. bet brad gilbert and chris fowler were down on their knees praying that fed would go through in that last set.
    they’ll be sacrificing to the gods tonight in the hope of getting a fedal final. network heaven for them…

      • amy,

        well he didn’t go away even after losing two sets so in that sense you can say he has self-belief. I guess he just did a bad job of handling nerves in that moment. Missing that break point and then facing pressure on his own serve was too much for him in that moment I guess.

        • stan has been bad at handling his nerves for a good while now vr. he may have won uso but has fallen to pieces in many matches last year where he could have played a lot better. his capacity to suddenly get in a mood out of nowhere and implode spectacularly is quite something…
          nice to see you btw vr – i don’t seem to have talked to you in a long time. the site is so much better when you are here…!

  10. I laugh every time Ricky mocks someone for their pick on a match. Ricky is a good writer who does know his tennis, but his picks are normally garbage overall. I remember him trying to be a handicapper for covers.com a few years, and it was awful if you followed his picks.

  11. hahaha Fed’s interview was cool. And he said he is the biggest fan of Rafa’s game.

    Dear Rafa, please make sure you make it to the final.

    Regards

  12. Unreal. This even trumps rafas comeback in 2013. To reach a final in the first tourney back after injury is just unreal. And hearing his post match he is so much more humble now but hope it stays that way if he wins the open too

    • Vmk, yes he is off to a wonderful start but Rafa’s 2013 was excellence throughout the year. He won slams and ended the year at no.1. Fed’s just made a final yet so let’s see how it goes.

      • Yes vr definitely but it was at age 27. This man is beating players of in their twenties and the top players like there is no tomorrow?.

        • Berdych is in a slump; Kei should have won the first set at 6-2 but took it only in a TB wasting precious energy hence he ran out of steam and reinjured his hip in the fifth set.

          Fed had an easy opponent in the QF; Stan is the only major obstacle but he managed to tough it out.

          Rafa had AlexZverev, Monfils, Raonic and now Dimitrov. He’s 30 and also on an injury comeback so he’s faring not too bad too.

          What’s with the top ten these days? No.1 and 2 knocked out in first week, no. 7 too. No. 10, 5, 4 knocked out by a 35 yo guy, and no.6 and 3 by a 30 yo guy. Time for fresh faces in the top ten. Goffin the first fresh face in top ten this year.

        • Er….Berdych is 31, Stan too, M Zverev is 30, Melzer as old as Fed I think. So only Kei and Rubin (or is he a teenager?) are in twenties.

      • Exactly VR. Rafa made it to final at his first tournament though it’s just a 250 but he went on to win Brazil, Acapulco, IW, final of MC and then won Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and FO! He only lost early at Wimbledon and then went on to win Montreal, Cincy and USO, reached final of Beijing and claimed the no. 1 ranking, reached another final at WTF too.

        Rafa had a more serious injury then than Fed had last year; Fed in fact had started training for a while during the break, hence he’s physically fresh and fit now.

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