Rafael Nadal will face familiar foe Karen Khachanov in round three of the Australian Open on Friday. A blockbuster slate of matches in the top half of the bracket also includes Denis Shapovalov, who is going up against Reilly Opelka.
(28) Karen Khachanov vs. (6) Rafael Nadal
Nadal and Khachanov will be going head-to-head for the eighth time in their careers when they clash in round three of the Australian Open on Friday. All seven of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, to the extent that this is one of the most lopsided matchups on tour right now. The 35-year-old is 16-1 lifetime in total sets at Khachanov’s expense. They have not squared off since 2019, when Nadal prevailed in a pair of tiebreakers at the Indian Wells Masters before getting the job done 6-3, 7-6(7) in the Davis Cup Finals.
After missing the last three months of 2021 because of a foot injury, Nadal is off to a roaring start this season. The 20-time Grand Slam champion triumphed at the Melbourne 250 and so far this fortnight has erased Marcos Giron and Jannick Hanffman in straight sets. Khachanov held off Denis Kudla in a fourth-set tiebreaker before easing past Benjamin Bonzi 6-4, 6-0, 7-5 on Wednesday. The 30th-ranked Russian is the kind of player that can give Nadal problems and their set scores have actually been close for the most part even though the Spaniard has taken almost every one. Expect a competitive contest, but there is no reason to think Nadal is bowing out at this point of the event.
Pick: Nadal in 4
(23) Reilly Opelka vs. (14) Denis Shapovalov
Tiebreakers can be expected to rule the day when Shapovalov and Opelka collide for the second time in their careers. Shapovalov played three of them against Soonwoo Kwon during a five-set victory on Wednesday and Opelka’s game style is obviously such that service breaks are few and far between. It is no surprise that their only previous meeting went to a third-set tiebreaker, won by Shapovalov 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6) at 2017 Queen’s Club qualifying.
Opelka is looking good with straight-set defeats of Kevin Anderson and Dominik Koepfer–requiring only two tiebreakers in the process. Like most contests involving the 6’11” American, this one could go either way. But Shapovalov was a semifinalist at Wimbledon last summer and he is more likely to continue his Grand Slam success Down Under. In a best-of-five situation, the 14th-ranked Canadian should have the upper hand late in the proceedings.
Pick: Shapovalov in 4
WWW?
Just hoping Rafa wins!! Vamos!!
Am I the only one who has to login every 5 minutes? If I refresh the page or if I don’t post anything for a few minutes I am logged out and if I make a comment I can’t even login under the comment box I have to go to the LOGIN/REGISTER page to do so by which time my comment has disappeared.
This puts me off coming on Tenngrand.
Ricky, please see if you can rectify this for me. Thanks.
can you not comment as a guest?
I don’t want to be a guest. I’ve been on this forum for ages but the login problem made me stop coming here because it’s so frustrating. However, this time my login was intact after turning my laptop off. Tnx
I mean can you comment and type in nadline10 as the name even without logging in?
^^^ I am receiving email notifications from Tenngrand so I am on the system just can’t stay logged in for 5 seconds.
Khachanov is a danger match. 5 sets is a definite possibility, but you’re right; the signs aren’t there that he is losing this match.
I’m not seeing anything to suggest that Shapo wins this match comfortably. Opelka hasnt dropped a set, so my guess is, he can win.
Other pundits have Opelka in 5. I would go for Shapo in 5 as I agree that the “Canadian should have the upper hand late in the proceedings” even if he must be getting tired at this point.
It’s hard to predict the kind of form which Nadal and Khachanov can produce tomorrow. There is no suggestion that Rafa can lose, but there’s no guarantee that he wins either. Rafa in 4 seems a balanced prediction, although I hope that the Spaniard raises his level and gets the job done in 3 tight sets. After all, Karen’s record against top 20 opponents is quite bad.
yeah I think most people have Opelka
Karen has said I’m really looking fwd to play Rafa at rod laver..I’m nervous but when have i not been lol
Well he is not going to say he is dreading playing him is he?😀
I am pretty nervous as well. Still worry how the foot will hold up if the match goes long.
Rafa can’t be serious about contending for this title if his foot couldn’t hold! I’m not worried about the foot neither am I worried about Karen!!!
Vamos Rafa!!!
There are sone great matches ahead, can’t wait!!
I am nervous for this match. Khachanov can be trouble. A day match would have been better conditions for Rafa. A night match means I can’t see it live. It would be in the wee hours of the morning here. I will try to record it.
I hope it’s not going to be a physical battle this early in the tournament. I remember their match at the USO a few years ago.
I do hope the foot holds up.
Khachanov has been in solid form since about Wimbledon time last year. If Nadal wins, he then has Karatsev who just won the leadup event and seems to relish these conditions. And if he manages to win that one, Nadal then has Zverev.
I think Karatsev might be the match that ends Nadal’s AO.
If he manages to beat Karatsev he certainly won’t be beating Zverev.
Sharp bettors will be all over this opportunity.
Karatsev or Mannarino.
Not impossible but unlikely.
You won’t get favorable odds at all on Zverev when he plays Nadal, so sharp bettors definitely won’t be all over it.
even Karatsev may not have very long odds against Nadal
Nadal will be overpriced given his “real” chances. That’s enough for sharp bettors to want to take advantage.
E.g If Nadal and Zverev are both 1.90 but Nadal’s chances of winning are really about 20% (i.e. 5/1), don’t you think that’s something bettors would want to exploit?
Zverev will be favored. But Nadal’s chances are better than 20 percent.
In your opinion.
yep.
same as Nadal having less than 20 percent chance to win is your opinion.
I thought Kecmanovic would win this also. You need to stop tailing the bookmakers.
and I thought Garin would be more competitive than you predicted.
nope!
Don’t argue with the king.
Conveniently ignoring the fact that Nadal also won a lead up tournament to the AO.
🤫
Nny being nervous makes me more nervous.
Garin v Monfils is a cracker. Sometimes these unexpected ones turn out to be a doozy. Both players look to be in great form.
nope
Lets not go there; you’ve had 100 “nopes” already and we’re only the 3rd round.
Garin would feel right at home here also; there’s lots of South Americans in Oz.
Cant believe they are wearing black clothing in this heat.
it’s special material
The battle of the southern Europeans. Berettinni knows how life is down south, dont worry about that. Survival of the fittest.
Alcaraz showing his lack of experience; going down 2 sets to zip before he starts sensing the moment. Where’s the coach when you need him.
If I hadn’t seen the match and had to rely of Mats Wilander nd Co I would have thought Alcaraz won. So far not a word about the victor Berrettini only priase for Acaraz and how good he is.
Well done Schap, taking out The Towering Tallboy!
How good was Alcaraz vs Berettini! Wow. Alcaraz really is special and Matteo came out so strong in that match tie-break. Amazing!
Berrettini dominated the first 2 sets then he tweeked his ankle but I’m not saying that’s why Alcaraz won the next 2 set because I didn’t pay too much attention until the TB which Matteo narowly won.