Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mmoh, Ymer vs. Alcaraz

Rafael Nadal will continue his Australian Open campaign when he goes up against Michael Mmoh on Thursday. The next great Spaniard could be Carlos Alcaraz, who tries to continue his run at the expense of Mikael Ymer.

(Q) Michael Mmoh vs. (2) Rafael Nadal


Reviews of Nadal’s physical state are mixed heading into second-round action at the Australian Open on Thursday night. The good news is that Nadal trounced Laslo Djere 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 in the opening round. At the same time, the second-ranked Spaniard did not sound overly encouraged in his post-match press conference. Nadal’s back issue is only affecting his serve, but the fact that it is still a problem at all is discouraging.

In the early rounds, however, it should not matter. Nadal’s draw continues to be a good one in the form of Mmoh, and even the 2009 champion’s nearest seed–Dan Evans–is already out. Mmoh has never been to the third round of a Grand Slam and it isn’t about to happen here. The 177th-ranked American is coming off a 7-6(3), 6-7(3), 3-6, 7-6(3), 7-5 victory over Viktor Troicki that lasted four hours and six minutes. In other words, Nadal won’t be the only one in this matchup less than 100 percent. A beatdown is in order.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 5-7 games

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How many games will Mmoh win?


(Q) Carlos Alcaraz vs. Mikael Ymer

Tipped as the next great Spaniard, Alcaraz is starting to make a name for himself on the main tour. At 16 years old he won a match at last season’s 500-point tournament in Rio de Janeiro. So far in 2021 he has qualified for the Australian Open, advanced two rounds at the Great Ocean Road Open, and crushed fellow qualifier Botic Van de Zandschulp 6-1, 6-4, 6-4.

Carlos Alcaraz

A much more competitive contest is likely in the cards with Ymer, who also reached round two last year before losing to Karen Khachanov 10-8 in the fifth-set tiebreaker. The 95th-ranked Swede played another five-setter on Tuesday, upsetting Hubert Hurkacz. This will be an intriguing contrast in styles, as Alcaraz is the bigger hitter but Ymer has incredible speed and can counter-punch all day long. In the end, the teenager’s weapons may wear Ymer down.

Pick: Alcaraz in 4

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WWW: Ymer vs. Alcaraz?

14 Comments on Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mmoh, Ymer vs. Alcaraz

  1. I couldn’t watch rafa’s match. Does he have a realistic chance to win with his back problems? I see that some of you seem to be saying it is unlikely.

    • Dearest amy,

      I did see Rafa’s match. I gave my thoughts on another topic thread. I think it was pretty clear that his serve was affected by the back problem. His opponent really did not have any weapons to trouble him. They had some good rallies where Rafa could get the feel of his shots. He is under cooked coming into this tournament. I thought he played his best in the latter part of the third set. He hit two unbelievable DTL forehands that were vintage Rafa. He finished strong. It’s too bad about the back because Rafa has a great draw.

      I have lowered my expectations accordingly. One match at a time. But from what Rafa said after the match, the back is still bothering him. He could get through the early rounds if it doesn’t get any worse. But best of five set matches are even tougher if there is any kind of injury. This is very frustrating,

  2. The back problem that Rafa described is just some muscle strain which heals quite rapidly (few weeks and almost 3 have passed since he got this). Given the pro treatment he’s getting for this, the lack of competitive matches is more likely to affect him than his back heading into the second week at AO. Remember that he beat Thiem (in a exhibition, but still) having this problem.

    This affected his preparation and morale (injured around AO, again!!!) but might turn to be a blessing in disguise as he’s more rested than most at the moment.

  3. Rafa looked a lot better in his second match. Serve was better, movement was overall better. Obviously, this guy did not present a real challenge. But Rafa seemed more relaxed and his shots seemed to have more rhythm and timing.

    We won’t know until Rafa faces a decent player, just his the back will hold up. He will face either De Minaur or Fog in the fourth round, so we will see.

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