Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mayer, Kyrgios vs. Troicki

Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios will be back in action at the Australian Open on Wednesday after picking up routine first-round victories. Nadal is going up against familiar foe Leonardo Mayer, while Kyrgios has a date with Viktor Troicki.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Leonardo Mayer

Nadal and Mayer will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and at a second consecutive Grand Slam when they meet again in round two of the Australian Open on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at a perfect 4-0 in favor of Nadal, who is 10-1 in total sets against Mayer without requiring a single tiebreaker to win any of those 10 sets–whereas Mayer’s lone set against the Spaniard came in a ‘breaker. One of Nadal’s toughest tests (which still is not saying a lot) during last summer’s routine run to the U.S. Open title was presented by Mayer. In a third-round showdown in Arthur Ashe Stadium, the Argentine led by a set and had a break point to lead by a set and a break before Nadal stormed back to prevail 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-1, 6-4. The world No. 1 was off to the races once he finally converted his 14th break point of the match at 3-3 in the second.

That was a relative thriller compared to what Nadal enjoyed in his Melbourne opener on Monday night, when the top seed and 2009 champion issued a triple-breadstick to 37-year-old Victor Estrella Burgos. The 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 affair required only one hour and 34 minutes, the duration of which saw Nadal race around the court with no signs whatsoever of the knee injury that forced him out of the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals and the Brisbane International earlier this month. Mayer, meanwhile, punched his ticket to the last 64 by beating Nicolas Jarry 6-2, 7-6(1), 6-3. The world No. 52 is off to an unspectacular start this season, with an opening loss in Brisbane to Ryan Harrison and a second-round exit in Sydney at the hands of Benoit Paire. Based on a healthy Nadal’s performance against Estrella Burgos, this should be one-way traffic for the most part.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing more than 11 games

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(17) Nick Kyrgios vs. Viktor Troicki

It’s too soon to start thinking about a potential semifinal affair in the top half of the bracket between Nadal and Kyrgios. Or is it? Kyrgios was just as dominant on Monday, dropping a few more games than the 16-time Grand Slam champion only because his competition (Rogerio Dutra Silva) was slightly more formidable than Estrella Burgos. The 22-year-old’s 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 thrashing came as no surprise, and not just because he was playing at home in Australia and on a favorable surface. This is also arguably the best form Kyrgios has displayed heading into a major, coming off his fourth career title in Brisbane–where he toppled world No. 3 Grigor Dimitrov along the way.

Up next for the world No. 17 on Wednesday is a second career meeting with Troicki, who got blown out 6-1, 6-2 last summer in Montreal. The 65th-ranked Serb did well to survive his opening match, but the scoreline was hardly encouraging against Alex Bolt–a 25-year-old ranked No. 192 who obviously needed a wild card to get into the main draw. Troicki battled out of a two-set deficit to prevail 6-7(2), 4-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. A much different kind of adversary in this one will almost certainly bring a swift end to Troicki’s stay Down Under.

Pick: Kyrgios in 3

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59 Comments on Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mayer, Kyrgios vs. Troicki

    • That was a key service hold for Rafa. After getting in a hole 0-30 and then 15-40, Rafa served well and then chakkevged a late call in his serve. He was right. Rafa was able to come back and hold serve and the break 3-1 in the first set.

        • Rafa is looking very sharp in this match. He did have his chances to break again when he had Mayer down 0-40 at 5-2. He could have won the set there, but he served it out.

          6-3 Rafa! He was pumped after he won that set! A big difference from their match at the USO!

          Rafa seems to know exactly what he wants to do in this match. He’s hitting the forehand well. A few nice DTL forehand winners. The ESPN commies were talking about how Moya has Rafa standing further behind the baseline with the ROS. It gives him more time.

          I think Rafa is playing better in this match against a tougher opponent.

          Keep it up Rafa!

  1. Mayer hasn’t gone away in this match and is now in with a chance to win a set and at least play a tie-break. The guy has hit some great shots -and made Rafa hit some- but he just lacks consistency. That’s always been his problem.

  2. Today Rafa was just too good for Mayer,we witnessed the forehand at vintage levels,complemented by a good serving performance. Rafa also read very well Mayer’s big serve,being able to break him three times,but created many chances to do so. Overall,it was a rock solid performance from Rafa,imo. I hope the only way is up from now on!

    • I’ve heard (from the ESPN commies) that the show courts aren’t that fast but the outer courts are. Maybe why they’re keeping NK out there so far? (Not sure how Hisense is playing).

    • Can’t agree with you,when Rafa went for the shots with his forehand,the placement and the intensity were great,especially when he went to the DTL forehand. The backhand was also fine tuned,however not at the same level.

      • Gaviria,

        I agree with you. In fact, while I was live blogging during the match I mentioned that Rafa was hitting the forehand very well and especially the DTL. Also the backhand was good. Not as good, but considering that Eafa has not had any match play before the AO, better than expected,

  3. How on earth can a Novak monfils 2nd round match not get the night session at rod laver. I am shocked that Federer got night match again. Isn’t the Djokovic monfils match best of the day tomorrow…i will say the same for Friday that kyrgios tsonga deserves the night match over rafa dzumhur.

    • I was shocked, too! Djoker/Monfils is mouthwatering, while Fed/Struff will most likely be a boring three set win for Fed. Unless this is another example of preferential Fed treatment, it’s a true blunder.

    • Federer is not inciting the players to boycott the AO next year. 😉 😉 😉 But seriously, I think the players negotiate their schedule. How else would Dimitrov/McDonald and Gavrilova/Mertens get the night session over Nadal/Mayer?

    • Sanju & littlefoot….U guys shouldn’t be shocked..it happened everytime!…Not only at AO but everywhere as well…Fed got favoured everywhere he goes..i don’t blame Fed but organizer’s didn’t shame at all in showing their affection & biased towards Fed…They are sooo ridiculous that 2 Novak matches play at day times..and Dimi who’s slamless got to play evening session on RLA against nobody…

      Also u guys still remember last year at Wimby when Rafa complained that he was assigned to play on court 1 several times while Fed got CC to his name all the time?…Urghh!!

  4. I was busy and only managed to watch the last few games of the third set. Rafa didn’t serve well when he was serving for the match at 5-4 and had to fight hard to win the TB. I wonder whether he was tiring during the third set (commies said the speed of his serves had gone down 10km in the third set), or he was as usual tensed up while serving for the match. He did serve well when he needed to in the TB, and hit some great passing shots.

    • He could be tiring. But it was a good test. His body must be getting ready for the competition. I think he would be overall happy with his showing so far. First two round were important.

  5. I think it was more that Mayer got a burst of energy and just started going for his shots, some of which went in. The quality definitely picked up at that point. Rafa did not look tired to me.

  6. Looking at Rafa’s draw, he now has Dzumhur who is a hard hitter, and then most likely Dolgo (who served plenty of aces against Ebden). In the QF it’s most likely Cilic, another big server (he also served plenty of aces today). The SF? It’s either one of Dimi/Kyrgios/ Tsonga most likely.

    I doubt we can call that an easy draw on a quick HC! If it’s clay sure there won’t be any issue, but not on a quick HC.

    • I always thought that Rafa’s potential path into the quarters shouldn’t be exceptionally difficult – but then it will probably become really tricky. Hopefully Rafa will be in a good groove by then. He will need it.

      • I don’t think Dolgo can hang with Rafa in a Bof5 set match. He can’t stay with Rafa mentally or physically.

        I think Rafa got a good draw for the early rounds. As far as from the quarterfinals on, if it wasn’t Dimi, Kyrgios or Tsonga, then it would have been Murray, Novak or Stan.

        Rafa has the chance to play himself into good form with his frawcin the early rounds.

          • Ricky, Dolgo’s most successful slam has been the AO. And, yes, although Rafa has more USO than AO titles, he has indeed played consistently great at the AO. But I think that history doesn’t tell us anymore how a player will perform at the AO, since they made the change last year from slow hardcourt to medium fast hartcourt as they call it officially. Anecdotally it has been called lightning fast hardcourt.

        • We can’t forget that Dolgo has to handle Schwartzman first,in fact I don’t expect it to be easy for him. For sure that he hasn’t what it takes to deal with Rafa in a BO5 match,because of his disease,maybe he could have a shot at Wimbledon.

          • Gaviria,

            Good for you for bringing up Schwartzman! Dolgo has to get by him. Honestly though, looking st the four potential opponents for rad in the fourth round, are we to consider them tough? I think Rafa got a break with the early rounds and he can play himself into good form for the second week. That is when it will get tough.

            Rafa has looked much sharper than I thought he would. He was not tired at the end of the third set. Mayer just went for it to try and have a shot at maybe winning the third set. Rafa handled the TB very well. He came up with some great shots. This was a much different match against an opponent who has been a tough match up for Rafa.

            We should all be happy that Rafa is in the third round, the knee is good and he’s playing well.

          • I totally agree with you Nny. I don’t consider that Rafa opponents until the QF can pose much of a threat for him. He’s getting in form and I believe he’ll be ready for the later stages of the tournament. Yeah,I’m so glad that our Champion’s playing with no physical limitations and at a good level,at some point I was really doubting and fearing that he won’t be ready for it. We certainly couldn’t have wished for better at this moment.

  7. I do not think Rafa got tired st the end of the third set. That was the only blip in that match as far as I am concerned. I think that Rafa might have lost a bit of concentration and Mayer started going for his shots like he had nothing to lose. I also think it was a function of Rafa not having played much before the AO.

    But I think Rafa was in control throughout the match up until that blip at the end. The important thing is that he won and in straight sets. No four set struggle this time.

    I am not going to dwell on it after Rafa’s overall performance was so good. I think this win will give him good feelings moving foreward. He was tested at the end and that’s good for him. His reaction at the end of the match said it all. This could have been a much tougher match, but Rafa played better than he did in the match at the USO.

    I think match play and winning is what us important now. One match at a time.

  8. I have busy schedule and don’t get to enjoy watching AO! I only managed to see the first set! Rafa IMO was standing too far behind the baseline and missed some good opportunities for break. I hope he did not get tired in the third set -that would be worrying. I just think he got tight and tentative as he usually does when serving for the set or for the match!
    Certainly not an easy draw for Rafa…hope he builds his form and confidence as the tourney progresses enough to get ready for big matches with Cilic/Kyrgios/Dimitrov…

    Vamos Champ!

  9. Dolgopolov will be better at the AO because the courts here play quicker than the USO and he’s serving aces after aces! I doubt Schwartzman can handle those aces on a fast HC.

    It will be a hot day on Thurs, can’t help but think of Dzumhur vs Rafa at Miami one year where Rafa retired in the third set; that Dzumhur guy can hit hard and run fast!

    Rafa is better at the USO than at the AO; it’s only in 2015/2016 that he had poor results at the USO! He hardly was being pushed to five sets at the USO, and since 2008, he was reaching at least the SF there ( excluding 2015/2016 of course).

    The AO used to be played on slower courts, hence Rafa had to grind there and he played many five setters there; even when the court was sped up last year, Rafa still had to grind in his three five setters, hardly playing better than when he’s at the USO.

    • Ha, Dzumhur definitely not of Ferrer’s pedigree; Ferrer was a top five, even top three player during his heydays, not even Delpo or Cilic could get to world no.3 ranking.

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