Australian Open Day 3 expert picks, including Tsonga vs. Shapovalov and Carreno Busta vs. Simon

Second-round action at the Australian Open begins on Wednesday, highlighted by a showdown between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Denis Shapovalov. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk preview four of the best matchups and make their picks.

Denis Shapovalov vs. (15) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Ricky: They also faced each other in round two of the 2017 U.S. Open, where Shapovalov prevailed in straight sets. The 18-year-old Canadian is not quite as on top of the world as he was last summer, but Tsonga is not exactly flying high right now either. This is Shapovalov’s third tournament of the season and he got things started by making quick work of Stefanos Tsitsipas. The youngster is on the way up; Tsonga is not. Shapovalov in 4: 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 7-5, 6-3.

Mert: It’s not a terrible matchup for Tsonga, who will not have to play long points. But he must prevent Shapovalov from using using his lefty cross-court backhand (the youngster’s best baseline weapon) that presses Tsonga’s weak side (the backhand). Tsonga’s form is a question mark (even after his first-round win); Shapovalov’s is not. It’s yet another chance for the Canadian to establish his name as an upper-echelon player in 2018. If he serves well, look for an upset. Shapovalov in 4: 6-1, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.

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(10) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Gilles Simon: 

Ricky: Carreno Busta is No. 11 in the world; Simon is 57th. But it is Simon who is favored (albeit slightly) according to the official odds. Why? Well, Carreno Busta slumped big-time down the stretch last season–costing himself a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals despite reaching the U.S. Open semifinals. Simon did nothing in 2017, but he stormed out of the gates this year with a title in Chennai. The Frenchman enjoyed an easier first-rounder and is the more confident of the two players right now. Simon in 4: 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

Mert: Simon did not particularly play well against Copil but still won in straight sets largely because the Romanian either made errors whenever he got aggressive or could not finish points at the net. It will be a different match vs. Carreno Busta, who will extend rallies and not give Simon targets to hit. A lot of Carreno Busta’s success will depend on his first serve and the follow-up shot (a forehand from inside the baseline for the most part, he hopes). I think the No. 10 seed will deliver in straights. Carreno Busta in 3: 7-6, 7-6, 6-1.

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(31) Pablo Cuevas vs. Ryan Harrison 

Ricky: I picked Cuevas to lose against Mikhail Youzhny in round one. That didn’t happen, but I’m once again picking Cuevas to go down. He is simply not a great hard-court player and the competition level increases dramatically in this one. After all, Youzhny is well past his prime; Harrison–the Brisbane runner-up–is producing the best tennis of his career. The American is playing with a new lease on Aussie Open life after scraping past Dudi Sela in five tough sets. Harrison in 4: 7-5, 5-7, 6-1, 6-4.

Mert: Harrison got away with one vs. Sela, but don’t look for that to happen again with Cuevas. The Uruguayan has the upper hand in just about every pattern of rally from the baseline, which will force the American to take more and more risks–and commit more and more errors. Cuevas in 3: 6-3, 6-4, 6-3.

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Marcos Baghdatis vs. (30) Andrey Rublev

Ricky: Rublev has a chance to be the 2017 Alexander Zverev of 2018–maybe not quite to the same extent, but top 10 is not out of the question. The 20-year-old Russian is coming off a runner-up finish in Doha and he battled extremely well–kept it together mentally (just barely!)–in a five-set win over David Ferrer on Monday. This should be another case of Rublev taking advantage of a former Grand Slam finalist who is past his prime. But it won’t be easy, as Baghdatis’ first-round defeat of Yuki Bhambri was unexpectedly routine. Rublev in 4: 6-2, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-2.

Mert: Baghdatis is a nightmarish early-round opponent, especially at a major where he has had previous success and enjoys crowd support. Rublev’s power and placement will, however, force a lot of miles on his opponent’s legs. His chances increase greatly if he wins the first set. He will also need to improve on his 59 percent first-serve performance in the first round, which may be too much to ask. I still see the Russian grinding it out in another five-setter: Rublev in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, 5-7, 6-3.

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