Australian Open qualifying picks

January 12, 2016 Ricky Predictions 65

Australian Open qualifying begins on Wednesday. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds make their picks for the 16 players who will advance to the main draw out of each section.

Ricky

1) Luca Vanni: The late-blooming Vanni made a name for himself in 2015 and he appears to be in fine form to begin 2016. Duckhee Lee is a future prospect, but Vanni has the experience in this section.

2) Ruben Bemelmans: Speaking of experience, Bemelmans also has the edge in that department in his section. The Belgian lefty played well at the U.S. Open last season and did some nice work in Davis Cup.

3) Aslan Karatsev: Tim Smyczek has been in a slump and Kenny De Schepper is only a threat on grass for the most part. Karatsev, a 22-year-old Russian, qualified for the main draw in Doha last week.

4) Alejandro Falla: This weak section is Falla’s to lose–but he won’t. Thomas Fabbiano could at least make things somewhat interesting in the final round.

5) Radek Stepanek: An intriguing 16th also is home to Jan-Lennard Struff, Marinko Matosevic, and Alejandro Gonzalez. Stepanek is the pick because he advanced one round in Brisbane before losing to Bernard Tomic in a third-set tiebreaker.

6) Ramkumar Ramanathan: Going out on a limb with the winner of an all-Indian opener between Ramanathan and Saketh Myneni. Lukas Lacko is an underachiever who will probably come up small once again.

7) Ryan Harrison: Harrison probably isn’t the favorite here despite his seeding, but I’m not entirely giving up on him just yet. The winner between Marsel Ilhan and Aleksandr Nedovyesov will be tough.

8) Maximilian Marterer: Not to be confused with Roger Federer, of course, Marterer is a 20-year-old German who is rising up the rankings. Picking Jared Donaldson or Frances Tiafoe is risky because they have to play each other right away.

9) Taylor Fritz: The guy does not lose and he is in a relatively soft section. Michael Berrer is on his last legs (wasn’t he supposed to retire in 2015?).

10) Daniel Brands: Brands and Radu Albot should coast into the final round for what should be a good matchup. The edge goes to Brands for his ability to win so many free points.

11) Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Herbert is quite simply by far the best player in this section. Edouard Roger-Vasselin and Marco Chiudinelli are no longer in their primes.

12) Ante Pavic: The 26-year-old Croat qualified in Chennai and ousted Nicolas Almagro in round one. There is not much else to speak of in this group.

13) Tatsumo Ito: Pretty much everyone in this 16th has a chance. Nobody is great, but all are decent. Ito seemed to be in fine form last fall.

14) Kimmer Coppejans: This will come down to Coppejans vs. Karen Khachanov in the second round. It could go either way, but it’s time for Coppejans to start rising.

15) Dustin Brown: Will Dreddy take care of business? Probably not. I would take the field (the other seven combined) over Brown, but no single player is worth picking over him. Who knows.

16) John-Patrick Smith: In weighing Smith against Elias Ymer, Smith has the easier first two rounds. He also has home-court advantage in Australia.

Joey

1) Bjorn Fratangelo: Pretty fun top section. Fratangelo, Luca Vanni, and Dan Evans are all strong players. If the courts were a bit faster I might take Evans, but with the slow, high bounce I’ll take the American.

2) Blaz Rola: Rola had a down year in 2015, but he’s got a decent draw here given that Bemelmans is less than consistent. Egor Gerasimov is a sleeper.

3) Tim Smyczek: Great draw for Smyczek; quite simply the best player in this 16th of the draw. Again, courts are too slow for a player like Kenny De Schepper.

4) Alejandro Falla: Not only is the Falla by far the most experienced player in this group, but he’s also in good form coming off of a final at the Noumea Challenger.

5) Henri Laaksonen: Absolutely loaded section here. You could make strong arguments for four different players. I’ve always been bullish on Struff, but I’ll take a bit of wild card in Henri Laaksonen. He’s talented and if he can get through Gonzalez, he’ll be very tough to beat.

6) Lukas Lacko: From the strongest section to among the weakest. Nobody really stands out, but Lacko is reliable enough. Marius Copil would be tough if he’s serving well.

7) Ryan Harrison: Great draw for Harrison, as he’s in a pretty weak 16th here. Good opportunity for all of them, and I’ll be interested to see how Bradley Mousley fares.

8) Jared Donaldson: Ridiculous quartet of players at the bottom, including rising Americans Donaldson and Tiafoe playing each other in the first round. I think Donaldson will win a three-set battle over Tiafoe before rolling into the main draw. But look out for the ever-unpredictable Brydan Klein.

9) Taylor Fritz: Fritz is in one of those “I forgot how to lose” modes right now. I don’t see much trouble for him unless Norbert Gombos is in form.

10) Daniel Brands: Brands comeback has taken longer than expected, but starting late last year he began to regain form. His serve should be the difference.

11) Pierre-Hugues Herbert: I think it’ll be PHH vs. Mitchell Krueger and the winner of that will win the section. Roger-Vasellin seems like the safe pick, but he hasn’t played good singles in over a year.

12) Peter Polansky: Another 16th among the weakest in the draw. Good first-round opportunity for Dennis Novikov, but James Ward and Peter Polansky are equally unpredictable and streaky. I’ll go with the Canadian.

13) Tennys Sandgren: The greatest name in Tennys got in very late to quallies and he has a great draw. He was playing well when I saw him last week at a Futures event in L.A. and I think he’ll make a run.

14) Karen Khachanov: The young Russian has taken a little longer than some thought to pan out, but he hits a big ball and will cause trouble for Coppejans.

15) Dustin Brown: I never feel that comfortable picking Dreddy in slam quallies, but he tends to perform fairly well. Winner of Konstantin Kravhcuk vs. Andrey Golubev will likely be his opponent in the final round.

16) Elias Ymer: Ymer is a quallies legend at this point, having earned his way into the main draw of all four slams in 2015. He’s not in particularly good form, but he’ll compete hard enough to get through.

65 Comments on Australian Open qualifying picks

  3. My picks:
    1) Luca Vanni: I feel this section could go either way with maybe Saville or Dancevic qualifying but Vanni is probably the most solid of the players in this section of the draw and has lots of experience.
    2) Ruben Bemelmans: Another section with some different possibilities. I feel like Gerasimov and Rola are possibilities but like the first section, the highest seed is the most solid, in my opinion.
    3) Kenny De Schepper: The big serving lefty should be able to power past the somewhat out of form Smyczek in the final round.
    4) Alejandro Falla: Fabbiano is probably the only other player who could maybe steal this spot, but I’ll go with the Colombian to live up to his seeding.
    5) Henri Laaksonen: I’ll go a bit bold and say Laaksonen takes down Stepanek for a spot in the main draw. The Swiss was on fire last season at the end so I say he scores a main draw berth here in Melbourne.
    6) Lukas Lacko: This could go either way honestly. Lacko will probably play Copil in final round and I say that match goes the distance. I’ll take Lacko because he actually showed some consistency at end of last season at the challengers. Copil could crash the party with his serve though.
    7) Ryan Harrison: He should thank the draw gods a lot here. He will most likely face Ilhan for a spot in the main draw and Ryan has the weapons to crush the Turk if he isn’t too erratic.
    8) Francis Tiafoe: His first round encounter with Donaldson will pit the winner of the section, in my opinion. I feel like Tiafoe has enough fight and power to get through that match and find a way past the solid but relatively weaponless Soeda for a main draw berth.
    9) Taylor Fritz: This is a great opportunity for Fritz and he pretty much has made the most of all his opportunities so far in his fledgling pro career. I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t drop a set. He has a bomb of a serve, a sweet forehand, and a pretty solid backhand. Threats include Zverev and Berrer.
    10) Daniel Brands: A pretty navigable draw for Brands should see the German quietly sneak through without much fuss.
    11) Pierre Hugues-Herbert: He made the finals in doubles here last year so he should be comfortable on these courts and I have him getting through some moderately tough but beatable players.
    12) Ante Pavic: The in form Croat should be able to get through with his big game. I see him taking down Ward or maybe Novikov in the final round.
    13) Tatsuma Ito: I say the match between him and Fucsovics will pit the winner of a somewhat weak section.
    14) Karen Khachanov: The youngster has the skill to get through to the main draw and even advance a few rounds if his draw is good.
    15) Dustin Brown: His main threats are Kravchuk and Golubev, but I think if he gets through his first few matches, he will be ready to go in the final round.
    16) Benjamin Mitchell: The young gun has the tools to get through, in my opinion. That is if he can play well here. If he doesn’t perform well, then I could see Millot or Smith through. I have a feeling Mitchell will win this section with his good power game, though.

    Reply

  4. Just checked and saw vanni lost. Evans is dangerous but I didn’t expect that. Evans did win a challenger last year over Tiafoe in the final I think near the end on US indoor hard courts. He was impressive that week and if he continues that form he has a good chance at qualifying I would say.

    Reply

  7. Ymer and Vanni the top two seeds both out. Wow. And Dreddy loses too. The guy who beat Rafa at Wimbledon and has beaten Rafa twice now loses first round at a Grand slam…qualifying draw. And in straights too. To Dennis Novak…????

    Reply

  8. Qualifying Final picks. I’m late. It isn’t fair!

    Ryan Harrison over Molchanov
    Thomas Fabbiano over Di Wu
    Big German with B-name over Janvier
    Eduard Rojay-Vasselin over Samper-Montana
    Marinko Matosevic over A. Gonzalez
    Oliver Anderson over Menendez-Maceiras (go Australian when wth?)
    Go! Soeda over Kudryavtsev
    Sexy Stepank over Struff
    Yan Bai over Kravchuk
    Radu Albot over McGee
    Marius Copil over Basic
    Aleksandr Nedovyesov over Setkic (‘cos I like saying the name Nedovyesov)
    Francis Tiafoe over Gojowczyk (see mission impossible story!)
    Dennis Novak over Trungelliti
    Pierre Hughes-AirBear over Chewbacca
    AleAlejandro Falla over Desein

    Where’s Taylor Fritz? Didn’t see him on the daily schedule.
    Big German with Z-name over Fritz

    Dennis Novikov over Sugita

    Ah, I see what happened. Round 2 and the Final are mixed together due to weather complications. There could be more of that.

    Reply

  9. Day 3 Aussie Open Qualifying Picks:
    Harrison over Molchanov in 3 (let’s go USA)
    Wu over Fabbiano in 3 (mild upset)
    Brands over Janvier in 3 (DB for the win)
    ERV over JSM in 3 (tempted to pick JSM but I’ll pick the favorite to win in a tight one)
    Myneni over Giustino in 3 (tough call imo)
    Matosevic over Gonzalez in 3 (toss up)
    Soeda over Kudryatsev in 3 (upset possible here)
    Stepanek over Struff in 2 (German isn’t consistent enough)
    Kravchuk over Bai in 2 (KK is favorite to qualify now)
    Albot over McGee in 2 (could go three)
    Falla over Desein in 3 (Desein is no pushover)
    Copil over Basic in 2 (copil will qualify now imo)
    Setkic over Nedovyesov in 3 (could go both ways)
    Tiafoe over Gojowyczk in 2 (he’s most likely on a mission to qualify now)
    Ito over Sandgren in 3 (sticking with Ito to qualify but I can see Sandgren crashing the party)
    Novak over Trungelliti in 3 (the win over Dreddy should provide him with enough confidence to back it up)
    Herbert over Chiudinelli in 2 (youngster smokes veteran)

    Reply

  10. No place to talk about the AO draw (tomorrow???) so here goes…

    Fed in Andy’s half.
    Stan in Nole’s half.

    Rafa in Nole’s quarter.
    Kyrgios in Rafa’s section.
    Ferrer or Berdych in Fed’s quarter.

    Fed to avoid all of Kyrgios, Raonic, Tsonga and Isner in his quarter.

    Do you??? Or don’t you.

    Reply

    • haha…detecting your reasoning, hawk. And yeah, agree maybe but I maybe not 😀
      Isn’t a protective draw for Fed out of fashion yet?
      Wouldn’t AO want Kyrgios to have a shot at Fed? Marquee match. Don’t you? or, Do you?

      Reply

      • Definitely not RC.

        Federer continues to be the biggest draw and fan favourite and will continue to be until the day he retires.

        He maximizes revenue whereever he goes and it is the tournament’s, sponsors and media’s best interest for Roger to make it to the later rounds.

        Business 101.

        I’d do the same if I were them.

        Reply

        • And the draws are hilarious if you ever watch them.

          The player (usually defending champ) is not allowed to look at the chip they draw. It is carefully covered and left for the tournament official to reveal.

          #SleightOfHand
          #TheTruthIsOutThere
          #TrustNo1
          #DoYou???

          Reply

  15. Rafa avoided the big servers in the early rounds from what I saw. They are talking about his part of the draw and Stan’s.

    I am so grateful that Rafa avoided Novak!

    Reply

  18. Rafa’s likely opponents:

    R1 Verdasco
    R2 Becker/Sela
    R3 Chardy
    R4 Anderson/Monfils
    QF Wawrinka
    SF Murray/Ferrer
    F Djokovic/Federer

    Reply

  19. Rafa having to play Verdasco in his first match is no piece of cake. But all in all, it’s not bad. The only big server he has is Anderson. He avoided the toughest big servers.

    Reply

  25. Fritz in flames right now. Down 3-0 in the third just got deflated when he lost second set 7-5 in the breaker just two points away and Zverev is clocking him now I was not expecting Fritz to kinda fade like this. I like Zverev so I’m not super bummed but I’m still pretty sad he won’t be in main draw. Well he did just play a couple great points so he could come back maybe. Still it doesn’t seem too likely now.

    Reply

  26. Holy crap I can’t believe what I just saw. Fritz was down 4-0 in the third and won 6-4. Wow. His reaction was great too lol he pounded his chest and yelled Come On!!!! That was insane.

    Reply

      • But he made it! I didn’t watch any tennis for 24 hrs. Happy Fritz and Harrison made it. Wow, was I wrong about the qualies. Moving on…to see where Fritz and Harrison get placed.

        Reply

        • Just realized there’s one more qualie round; thought it was over!

          Fritz and Harrison aren’t through…yet.
          Bad luck for Taylor. He had Berrer, then Zverev, AND has Brands in the qualie final. Brands won his last match v McGee in straights. Will be very surprised if Taylor can make it.

          The only qualie I feel reasonably sure will make it at this point is Stepanek!

          Reply

        • Oh awesome I thought Harrison would lose he was down 7-6(8) 4-2 but I guess he came back good comebacks from the Americans even Smyczek lost the first against de schepper. And yeah you’re right Ricky it was so strange how Zverev up 4-0 could start playing that badly. He was so confident when he went up 4-0 but Fritz kinda hung around and Zverev started double faulting and missing forehands left and right. Really bad loss for him. Great win for Fritz.

          Reply

  27. Yes!! P2H beats ERV 9-7 in the third. Awesome win I’m pulling for him to do well here in Melbourne. Already a good result for him I just hope he can be consistent this season in singles and not just in doubles.

    Reply

  28. Fritz got sock round one. Could be interesting but sock should take care of business. Oh and BREAKING NEWS: Ryan Harrison got Andrey Kuznetsov round one and Chardy round two and Nadal round three (his most likely path of players if he gets that far). I think it’s safe to say that Harrison got just about the best draw at a GS he’s had in his career. Smyczek did too. He got DGT then Troicki not as bad as it could’ve been for the American. And fratangelo got Robert in round one. Sorry to say for Bjorn but I would give Stephane the edge off the bat there.

    Reply

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