Australian Open qualifying picks

January 12, 2016 Ricky Predictions 65

Australian Open qualifying begins on Wednesday. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds make their picks for the 16 players who will advance to the main draw out of each section.

Ricky

1) Luca Vanni: The late-blooming Vanni made a name for himself in 2015 and he appears to be in fine form to begin 2016. Duckhee Lee is a future prospect, but Vanni has the experience in this section.

2) Ruben Bemelmans: Speaking of experience, Bemelmans also has the edge in that department in his section. The Belgian lefty played well at the U.S. Open last season and did some nice work in Davis Cup.

3) Aslan Karatsev: Tim Smyczek has been in a slump and Kenny De Schepper is only a threat on grass for the most part. Karatsev, a 22-year-old Russian, qualified for the main draw in Doha last week.

4) Alejandro Falla: This weak section is Falla’s to lose–but he won’t. Thomas Fabbiano could at least make things somewhat interesting in the final round.

5) Radek Stepanek: An intriguing 16th also is home to Jan-Lennard Struff, Marinko Matosevic, and Alejandro Gonzalez. Stepanek is the pick because he advanced one round in Brisbane before losing to Bernard Tomic in a third-set tiebreaker.

6) Ramkumar Ramanathan: Going out on a limb with the winner of an all-Indian opener between Ramanathan and Saketh Myneni. Lukas Lacko is an underachiever who will probably come up small once again.

7) Ryan Harrison: Harrison probably isn’t the favorite here despite his seeding, but I’m not entirely giving up on him just yet. The winner between Marsel Ilhan and Aleksandr Nedovyesov will be tough.

8) Maximilian Marterer: Not to be confused with Roger Federer, of course, Marterer is a 20-year-old German who is rising up the rankings. Picking Jared Donaldson or Frances Tiafoe is risky because they have to play each other right away.

9) Taylor Fritz: The guy does not lose and he is in a relatively soft section. Michael Berrer is on his last legs (wasn’t he supposed to retire in 2015?).

10) Daniel Brands: Brands and Radu Albot should coast into the final round for what should be a good matchup. The edge goes to Brands for his ability to win so many free points.

11) Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Herbert is quite simply by far the best player in this section. Edouard Roger-Vasselin and Marco Chiudinelli are no longer in their primes.

12) Ante Pavic: The 26-year-old Croat qualified in Chennai and ousted Nicolas Almagro in round one. There is not much else to speak of in this group.

13) Tatsumo Ito: Pretty much everyone in this 16th has a chance. Nobody is great, but all are decent. Ito seemed to be in fine form last fall.

14) Kimmer Coppejans: This will come down to Coppejans vs. Karen Khachanov in the second round. It could go either way, but it’s time for Coppejans to start rising.

15) Dustin Brown: Will Dreddy take care of business? Probably not. I would take the field (the other seven combined) over Brown, but no single player is worth picking over him. Who knows.

16) John-Patrick Smith: In weighing Smith against Elias Ymer, Smith has the easier first two rounds. He also has home-court advantage in Australia.

Joey

1) Bjorn Fratangelo: Pretty fun top section. Fratangelo, Luca Vanni, and Dan Evans are all strong players. If the courts were a bit faster I might take Evans, but with the slow, high bounce I’ll take the American.

2) Blaz Rola: Rola had a down year in 2015, but he’s got a decent draw here given that Bemelmans is less than consistent. Egor Gerasimov is a sleeper.

3) Tim Smyczek: Great draw for Smyczek; quite simply the best player in this 16th of the draw. Again, courts are too slow for a player like Kenny De Schepper.

4) Alejandro Falla: Not only is the Falla by far the most experienced player in this group, but he’s also in good form coming off of a final at the Noumea Challenger.

5) Henri Laaksonen: Absolutely loaded section here. You could make strong arguments for four different players. I’ve always been bullish on Struff, but I’ll take a bit of wild card in Henri Laaksonen. He’s talented and if he can get through Gonzalez, he’ll be very tough to beat.

6) Lukas Lacko: From the strongest section to among the weakest. Nobody really stands out, but Lacko is reliable enough. Marius Copil would be tough if he’s serving well.

7) Ryan Harrison: Great draw for Harrison, as he’s in a pretty weak 16th here. Good opportunity for all of them, and I’ll be interested to see how Bradley Mousley fares.

8) Jared Donaldson: Ridiculous quartet of players at the bottom, including rising Americans Donaldson and Tiafoe playing each other in the first round. I think Donaldson will win a three-set battle over Tiafoe before rolling into the main draw. But look out for the ever-unpredictable Brydan Klein.

9) Taylor Fritz: Fritz is in one of those “I forgot how to lose” modes right now. I don’t see much trouble for him unless Norbert Gombos is in form.

10) Daniel Brands: Brands comeback has taken longer than expected, but starting late last year he began to regain form. His serve should be the difference.

11) Pierre-Hugues Herbert: I think it’ll be PHH vs. Mitchell Krueger and the winner of that will win the section. Roger-Vasellin seems like the safe pick, but he hasn’t played good singles in over a year.

12) Peter Polansky: Another 16th among the weakest in the draw. Good first-round opportunity for Dennis Novikov, but James Ward and Peter Polansky are equally unpredictable and streaky. I’ll go with the Canadian.

13) Tennys Sandgren: The greatest name in Tennys got in very late to quallies and he has a great draw. He was playing well when I saw him last week at a Futures event in L.A. and I think he’ll make a run.

14) Karen Khachanov: The young Russian has taken a little longer than some thought to pan out, but he hits a big ball and will cause trouble for Coppejans.

15) Dustin Brown: I never feel that comfortable picking Dreddy in slam quallies, but he tends to perform fairly well. Winner of Konstantin Kravhcuk vs. Andrey Golubev will likely be his opponent in the final round.

16) Elias Ymer: Ymer is a quallies legend at this point, having earned his way into the main draw of all four slams in 2015. He’s not in particularly good form, but he’ll compete hard enough to get through.

19 Comments on Australian Open qualifying picks

  5. Fritz in flames right now. Down 3-0 in the third just got deflated when he lost second set 7-5 in the breaker just two points away and Zverev is clocking him now I was not expecting Fritz to kinda fade like this. I like Zverev so I’m not super bummed but I’m still pretty sad he won’t be in main draw. Well he did just play a couple great points so he could come back maybe. Still it doesn’t seem too likely now.

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  6. Holy crap I can’t believe what I just saw. Fritz was down 4-0 in the third and won 6-4. Wow. His reaction was great too lol he pounded his chest and yelled Come On!!!! That was insane.

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      • But he made it! I didn’t watch any tennis for 24 hrs. Happy Fritz and Harrison made it. Wow, was I wrong about the qualies. Moving on…to see where Fritz and Harrison get placed.

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        • Just realized there’s one more qualie round; thought it was over!

          Fritz and Harrison aren’t through…yet.
          Bad luck for Taylor. He had Berrer, then Zverev, AND has Brands in the qualie final. Brands won his last match v McGee in straights. Will be very surprised if Taylor can make it.

          The only qualie I feel reasonably sure will make it at this point is Stepanek!

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        • Oh awesome I thought Harrison would lose he was down 7-6(8) 4-2 but I guess he came back good comebacks from the Americans even Smyczek lost the first against de schepper. And yeah you’re right Ricky it was so strange how Zverev up 4-0 could start playing that badly. He was so confident when he went up 4-0 but Fritz kinda hung around and Zverev started double faulting and missing forehands left and right. Really bad loss for him. Great win for Fritz.

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  7. Yes!! P2H beats ERV 9-7 in the third. Awesome win I’m pulling for him to do well here in Melbourne. Already a good result for him I just hope he can be consistent this season in singles and not just in doubles.

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  8. Fritz got sock round one. Could be interesting but sock should take care of business. Oh and BREAKING NEWS: Ryan Harrison got Andrey Kuznetsov round one and Chardy round two and Nadal round three (his most likely path of players if he gets that far). I think it’s safe to say that Harrison got just about the best draw at a GS he’s had in his career. Smyczek did too. He got DGT then Troicki not as bad as it could’ve been for the American. And fratangelo got Robert in round one. Sorry to say for Bjorn but I would give Stephane the edge off the bat there.

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