Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berdych

Roger Federer is one win away from another trip to the Australian Open semifinals. Standing in his way on Tuesday is familiar foe Tomas Berdych, who has already faced the Swiss six times in Grand Slam competition.

Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych will be squaring off for the 22nd time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open on Tuesday. Federer is leading the head-to-head series 15-6, including 4-2 in Grand Slams. Somewhat surprisingly, they have not faced each other in a major since the 2012 U.S. Open, where Berdych prevailed 7-6(1), 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Both of their previous Melbourne showdowns have gone Federer’s way; 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-3 in 2008 and 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 in 2009.

“I have to play well,” the 34-year-old Swiss assured after destroying David Goffin during fourth-round action on Sunday. “I think the court suits him. I think this sort of flatter bounce and faster court is good for his serves, good for his returns. It’s a fast court. It’s going to be a good match. We’re both going to play aggressive; this court pays off when you do play good and aggressive tennis.”
Fed1

Federer preceded his victory over Goffin by taking out Nikoloz Basilashvili, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Grigor Dimitrov. Only Dimitrov has stolen a set, and Federer quickly bounced back from that blemish to crush the Bulgarian 6-1, 6-4 in sets three and four.

Berdych bulldozed through the first eight sets of his fortnight in similar fashion, cruising past Yuki Bhambri and Mirza Basic before storming to a big lead against Nick Kyrgios. The Aussie eventually took that contest to four sets but never seriously threatened his favored opponent. But a real test is exactly what Berdych got in the last 16, as he had to go the distance to scrape past a red-hot Roberto Bautista Agut 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-3.
Berdych 6

“It’s always difficult to say something else or something new,” the sixth-ranked Czech said when asked about going up against Federer. “I mean, it’s Roger.”

And it may be a loss for Berdych. Federer fell to Andreas Seppi in the third round last year, but that was an obvious aberration to the rule–and it was long before the 17-time slam champion raised his level in a major way the rest of the season. Prior to that setback, Federer had reached at least the semifinals of the Australian Open 11 straight times.

Pick: Federer in 4

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51 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Berdych

  1. Fed is playing sensational tennis. That backhand DTL earlier in the tiebreak and his serving has been superb. Whoa!! Sick pass from Berdych!! Gotta applaud that shot. Too good there from Tomas. Wow.

    • Fed sensational?? Its more like his serve is helping him out. Berdych OTOH couldnt get his first serve in, I mean 49% first serve vs Fed’s 70%? Yet the scorec is so close! I dont call that sensational, in fact both are not playing that well and Fed barely edged out a win in a tiebreak.

      Hardly playing better than 10 years ago!

      • I mean compared to earlier in the set. Like he has really stepped it up since start of the breaker. And what a pass to take the first break.

    • Not a fact but just your biased opinion. Just go back and watch Fed’s 2005-2006 matches and see for yourself.

      Stop harping the same old but wrong tune.

      • U gotta admit Fed’s forehand is fantastic right now. I mean he’s not hitting 90 mph inside out forehands like he could do back in the day but he’s playing pretty damn well. Very encouraging stuff from Roger. If he keeps up the level he has showcased for the past three or four games he has very good shot here imo. Most importantly he is super confident right now.

        • I didn’t even watch him back in the day anyways because I would’ve been in grade school lol. But the fact that he is playing at such a high level right now and at 34 is insane. He’s one of the contenders for the title without a doubt. I hope he keeps playing like this and gets this one done fast.

          • Benny,

            Have you watched Fed’s matches from 2005 to 2006? You should because he was extraordinary. Amazing foot speed and the most precise groundstrokes.

            He deserves credit for playing this well now, but he was even better back in the day.

        • Fed’s FH couldnt compare to that of 10 years ago, no where near and thats why he’s losing the FH battle vs Novak these days.

          Fed’s FH back then was laser sharp with its precision and everyone tried their best to avoid that FH. Why Rafa attacked Fed’s BH consistently? That’s because he knew he couldnt attack Fed’s FH, though Rafa’s BH at that time was like Rafa’s second FH (Fed’s description) and was at least able to hold his own vs Fed’s FH in a rally long enough to enable Rafa to find and exploit Fed’s BH.

      • Lucky,

        Agree 100%! I watched the 2005 AO semifinal with Fed and Safin. I could not believe how awesome Fef was back then. Safin was no slouch then and still had to play the match of his life to beat Fed and end his winning streak.

      • Public forum. You’re opinion is no more important than mine or anyone else.

        Your opinion was that berdy was too good to lose in straights. You probably thought he was playing fed from ten years ago.

  2. Berdy led by a break and tamely lost his serve. His first serve % is woeful today.

    Roger should loosen up now and mostly take this in straights.

  3. Fed looking very sharp and confident right now. That swinging volley was sick. And he’s throwing out a lot of aces out wide on the deuce side. Not a huge huge amount but he’s using that serve well and has hit six aces so far. I have a good feeling this match won’t keep me up tonight like stans match and Nole’s match lol.

    • I think that if Berdy was going to beat Fed then he needed to win the first set.

      Neither Fed or Berdy are doing great with second serve points win percentage. Fed at 40% and Berdy @ 42 %. But Berdy”s first serve percentage isn’t high enough at 54%.

  4. Berdych’s first serve % in first set was only at 49%, how to win when your opponent’s was at 70%? Had Berdych served better the first set might be his. Fed won 45 points vs Berdych’s 42 in set one!

    Berdych is poor at the net. He doesnt have the touch or the feel there, doesnt understand how to get into a better position when he’s there; really cant match Fed or Rafa or Murray there.

      • No, I never forsee he serves so badly this match. He was alright vs the others.

        I also thought he would stick to a game plan of blowing Fed off the court with a one two punch but he chooses to move to the net when he’s awful there. Poor game plan and poor serve that do him in.

        Fed wasnt great in set one, had Berdych won the first set with better serving (likely as he’s only 3 points behind Fed), he would be all confident going into the second set.

  5. Its insane how Fed gets it done against the one he is supposed to beat, especially at the majors. This ensures that he maintains a great ranking and faces the likes of Nole and Andy only in the latter stages of the tournaments. Rafa has to play so many small tournaments to earn the same number of points as Fed has done in this tournaments.
    And Fed is taking berdy to the cleaners. If kei manages to wear Nole down, we could have Fed take Djoko down

    • Cant compare them now. When in 2013, Rafa was doing better than what Fed is doing now and Fed at that time was doing poorly at the slams and not beating those that he should beat.

      Things could change though and sometimes quite quickly.

  6. Stats posted on ESPN

    Fed winners – 33
    Berdy winners – 20

    Fed UE’s – 22
    Berdy UE’s – 19

    1st serve points won

    Fed – 87%
    Berdy- 74%

    • The difference is in the winners. But this match has been decent quality. Fed is mentally stronger and had played that much better than Berdy.

  7. I thought the first set was close, but in the TB Fed raised his level in the TB.

    It’s true that Berdy’s first serve percentage was too low in the first set. But he still got it to a TB. From then on, it’s been all Fed.

  8. If Federer had been really hitting his FH, he would have been the 2 time defending champion at Wimbledon 2016 and defending champion at the USO 2016.

  9. Fed serving for the match now.

    Im disappointed by Berdych’s performance esp his serving. Berdych is moving further and further away from winning a slam when he couldnt even beat a 34 yo Fed. What hope he has vs a younger Novak?

    Well, has to congratulate Fed for getting it done in straight sets. If its Kei in the SF, Fed is going to reach the final.

    • I guess your opinion that berdy was too good to not win a set against this Fed was wrong.

      This Fed would beat ten year old fed and has a great chance to beat Nole in the semis.

      Just my opinion if that’s OK with you?

      • Yep I was wrong about Berdy because Berdy applied the wrong strategy – suicidal to rush the net vs Fed when its his own weakness. Fed is not Novak, Berdych should stay at baseline and tried blew Fed off the court. His poor serving was not helping him.

        Ten year old Fed? Sure!

        Its ok if its your opinion, not fact as you claimed.

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