Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

Novak Djokovic will be eager to clean his game up as he heads into an Australian Open quarterfinal showdown against Kei Nishikori on Tuesday. Djokovic committed 100 unforced errors in his previous match against Gilles Simon but survived in five sets.

Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Australian Open on Tuesday. Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 5-2, but the true story may not be as favorable for Nishikori as it looks on paper. The Japanese star once led the series 2-1 only to see Djokovic reel off four consecutive wins. Since losing to Nishikori in a 2014 U.S. Open semifinal stunner, the world No. 1 has scored victories on indoor hard courts (three times) and outdoor clay (once).

Their last three sets have been especially discouraging for Nishikori. Djokovic finished him off 6-1 in the third set of their 2015 Rome encounter and he cruised 6-1, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.
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Dominance, however, is not something that is on display right now for the Serb. Although this is one of his favorite tournaments, the five-time champion in Melbourne struggled throughout week one. His last two sets against Andreas Seppi were 7-5, 7-6(6) and he made an outrageous 100 unforced errors in a five-set defeat of Gilles Simon on Sunday. Djokovic preceded those wins by taking out Hyeon Chung and Quentin Halys in straight sets.

“It gives me great joy to know that I can’t get worse than that, than what I played today,” he said with a smile after scraping past Simon. “It doesn’t concern me for the next one.”

Nishikori has been in cruise control for the most part this fortnight. The world No. 7 has rolled over Philipp Kohlschreiber, Austin Krajicek, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, surrendering just one set to Garcia-Lopez along the way. Nishikori took an injury timeout for a wrist issue against the Spaniard, but he put any fears to rest by clobbering Tsonga 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in the fourth round.

Arguably the two best double-handed backhands in the sport will be showcased in this one, but Djokovic has a clear edge in just about every other department–including history of success at this event. The top seed has lifted the trophy four times in the last five seasons and his only blemish during this stretch has come in a 2014 five-set quarterfinal thriller against Stan Wawrinka. Expect the favorite to treat Sunday’s aberration as a wake-up call and pick up the pace in a drastic, emphatic way.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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68 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nishikori

  1. I will go against all odds and predict Nishi in 4?

    Of course if Nishi does not show up for this one leaving his game & confidence in the locker room, it can be a straight forward win for Novak. But I don’t think Nishi will let go that easily!

    If Nishi played the way he did in the earlier rounds he can trouble Novak who I expect definitely to raise his level but not yet to his top forme as this match comes too early…Nishi definitely has a chance if ever…

  2. I think that Nishikori has the potential to win in 4 or 5, but Djokovic will more than likely raise his game and take it in 3 or 4 himself.

  3. I think it’s going to be Novak in 3 or 4 sets. I think that Nishi is capable of taking a set off Novak. However, if Novak does raise his level of play, as I expect, then he could do it in straights. I do not see Nishi winning.

    • No predictions. We know where a reasonable prediction would point so I am dropping that lol. Just hoping Nishi wins! Go Kei !! 😉

          • Kind of agree. If in some crazy scenario Nole gets knocked out early, I think my next best bet to win would be Milos ….. Can’t believe Im saying this lol

          • Not in a slam final. Raonic would be way too nervous. He’s not gonna make final anyway. I think it’s pretty apparent that Murray is making final from bottom half unless a miracle happens.

          • Not necessarily, Benny. I know it was only Brisbane but Milos made it look easy winning over Fed.

            More importantly was last Indian Wells. Milos beat Rafa in the quarterfinal and lost to Fed in the semi but it was a close first set. I thought if Milos could take Fed to 3 sets in that match, he’d beat him. Also think Milos is ready to take it to Fed and stands a good chance if he can get one of the 1st three sets and take it to five.
            Let’s see how he does v LaMonf first.

      • vamosrafa,

        Really? You won’t even make a prediction? Then let me ask you this – do you really believe that Nishi has shot at beating Novak?

        Here is my take on it! Only if Novak has 100 UE’s again!

        • lol..NNY, i probably did not make myself clear enough. I was saying that I don’t want to make a prediction for this one because if I make on, it will obviously be djokovic as literally every factor will play in his favor. Want Nishi to win this one badly so don’t wana think about Novak winning lol. desperate behavior but I just don’t want to see either of fed and djoko winning more slams…djo coming closer and closer to rafa !!

          • don’t know hawkeye lol… I hope Mr. Don’t-you-or-do-you also does his part :p

            It’s a pity Stan is out. Extremely unlikely now that the winner will be anyone aside from Fed and nole

          • vr,

            I understand. I hope you know that I was just having a little fun with you.

            I am posting on my iPhone or my iPad. I had another procedure on my back this morning, so I am not supposed to sit at the computer today.

            I am with you all the way! Anyone but Novak or Fed!

          • Take care NNY.

            I do feel both Kei and Berdych can cause upsets. Berdych is playing very well and he’s familiar with Fed’s game and over five sets Berdych can do the damage. Once he can win a set or two he will have his chances of an upset and he’s too good not to win a set.

            If Novak cant raise his level high enough, and Kei is playing well enough then Kei can beat Novak, but he has to do it in 3 or 4 sets.

  4. Nole in 3. Nishi could possibly take one set but agree with you Ricky, I fully expect a huge upgrade in level of play today from Djoker.

    #Nolefam

    • Lucky,

      Thanks for your kind words. Hey, I am still here chatting about tennis. Not much can keep me away.

      I like your confidence in berdy’s chances against Fed. I just worry about his mental strength. You know, the bird brain thing!

      Novak and Kei should be interesting.

      • NNY, I mentioned on another thread that when I re-watched Rafa vs Raonic Abu Dhabi match, I noticed what a vast difference between then and now at AO R1.

        He was excellent in all dept at Abu Dhabi – serving great; returned great vs Raonic’s big serves by varying his return positions; hitting a flatter FH with deep penetrating shots, moving like a dream.

        All these talks about him slowing down in his footspeed really hold no water (except perhaps adjusting for age). The most important thing is timing his FH well which he did at Abu Dhabi. So, its all mental for him at AO, feeling tense, then hesitant, so he was slow in getting to good positions to do damage with his FH. He was hitting his flatter FH with authority in Ahu Dhabi but he was hitting loopy CC topspin FH vs Verdasco which were ineffective.

        I apologize to others here that I go off topic for this as I wish NNY could read about my thoughts on Rafa should she miss the other thread.

        • Lucky gets it.

          When asked what Moya had added to his game, Milos replied “Calm”.

          Just what the doctor ordered.

          #BetweenTheEars

    • Milos can beat Fed in a GS imo. And I do have a good reason to think it, but my post wouldn’t post. Cleared my cache and all that maybe it helps…

  5. Hoping for kei to spring an upset or Nole to get a tough workout at least. I honestly do feel like Rogers chances have increased tremendously after Nole’s ugly win over Gilles. Fed is probably more confident in beating Novak than he was at start of tournament and Nole himself hasn’t looked too sharp. Problem for the rest of the field is that Nole can step it up later. I don’t think he’s gonna be like super good against kei but should play solid enough to get a relatively straightforward win in four sets. Kei could make it very interesting if he’s on and djokers off though. All I know is I’m a little more confident now in picking Roger to win the title here. I know he has to get by Berdych but I think fed will get through relatively easily in that one with a solid four set win. Birdman is never easy to play though. Still Roger is a relatively heavy favorite in that one.

  6. Berdych is more confident vs Fed than vs Novak. He knows his big game can bother Fed but Novak’s defence is unbelievable so Berdych has fear or some mental scar (remember Beijing 2014 final?) Vs Novak.

    If Berdych can beat Fed, then I really hope for Kei to do his job and beat Novak. I really hope that Berdych can win a slam when Rafa is not there, time is running out for him.

    PS I was really pleased that Cilic won USO2014 esp when Rafa wasnt there.

  7. Novak looking sharp. Its looking more and more gloomy for Kei.

    The top 2 or 3 really separate themselves from the rest with such wide gap in their level of play. Its just so hard to beat them esp in a slam.

  8. I have a feeling Novak develops his sneak second serve down the T to counter Fed’s SABR on second serves. Smart tactics by Novak’s team.

    • Fed hasn’t used SABR anyway. Said he hasn’t felt all that well on court yet to use it. He might do one for Courier like he said. :p

  9. as I feared Nishi did not show up for this match…too bad as he could make it competitive if he was on…he really has potential but I think he does not have belief when Nole is on the opposite side…

    Novak playing ok nothing special though…but it is all he needs…this Kei is no threat to him spreading errors all over the place…

  10. If Novak gets to the SF, I think he can beat Fed there. As good as Fed looks in his Berdych match, he’ll have a hard time vs Novak.

    Novak is simply so quick and so good with his returns. Even if his first serve is not landing in, he still has his SSS DTT to get out of trouble. He’s really hard to beat here.

    • true…he is gaining momentum now and is destroying Nishi out there…this is anything but a competitive match…

      Novak is looking stronger thanks to Nishi’s errors…cruise control for Novak now…it’s gonna be over soon…

  11. Nishi has been really sloppy but Djokovic was anyway going to win. Brilliant finishing volley there from Novak. Great point throughout.

  12. Kei can play some great points but he’s just so inconsistent. Hoping Roger doesn’t pull a Kei on Friday. Nothing to lose though.

    • no, Fed will be a different animal out there, I am sure…Kei is just playing for the sake of it, it seems he really had no belief to start with that he could beat Nole…I don’t blame him though…Nole has created this invisibility aura and most of the players lose their matches before they even step on the court…

    • Kei uses wrong tactics just like Berdych using wrong one vs Fed.

      I mean, how can Kei beat Novak by rallying with him? He should move forward and also take more risks hitting the lines (the side lines).

      Hope he takes the third set and makes the match more competitive.

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