Australian Open QF preview and pick: Raonic vs. Monfils

Two days after upsetting Stan Wawrinka in five sets, Milos Raonic will be back in action to face Gael Monfils in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Wednesday. The winner will run into either Andy Murray or David Ferrer.

Milos Raonic and Gael Monfils will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they battle for a place in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Wednesday night. Monfils has won both of their previous meetings, but they have not faced each other since 2013. The Frenchman prevailed 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-3 on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm in 2011 and 6-4, 6-2 on the grass of Halle two seasons later.

Now, however, Raonic is an established force at or near the top of the game. The Canadian currently registers 10 spots off his career-high ranking of No. 4 in the world, but that can be attributed almost entirely to a 2015 foot injury. He is back in business for 2016 and has arguably been the best player throughout the month of January. Raonic is a perfect 9-0 with a title in Brisbane (upset Roger Federer 6-4, 6-4 in the final) and victories this fortnight over Lucas Pouille, Tommy Robredo, Viktor Troicki, and Stan Wawrinka.

Monfils benefited from Rafael Nadal’s early elimination when he faced Alex Kuznetsov in the fourth round and got past the Russian in four sets. The 25th-ranked Frenchman preceded that victory with straight-set defeats of Yuichi Sugita, Nicolas Mahut, and veteran compatriot Stephane Robert. This is Monfils’ first trip to the Australian Open quarters and just third appearance in the quarters of a major outside Roland Garros.
Monf wins
Although Monfils has no reason to apologize for having enjoyed an extremely favorable draw, the bottom line is Raonic is more battle-tested and simply playing better tennis–better than Monfils and almost anyone else. The 2014 Wimbledon semifinalist has been borderline unbreakable aside from during a brief hiccup during his five-set upset of Wawrinka. It is hard to see Monfils staying focused in enough service games to stay within serious striking distance of his on-fire opponent.

Pick: Raonic in 3

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44 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and pick: Raonic vs. Monfils

  1. I am picking Raonic in four sets over Monfils. That’s head over heart. Because I would love to see Monfils win. Maybe with his new coach he will get himself together and learn how to best use his considerable talents.

    Raonic is looking just too right now and will be feeling more confident after the victory over Stan.

  2. Agree with those who say that Raonic is the heavy favourite here, am saying Milos in 4. Monfils can get a lot of balls back, but think Milos will keep his cool and continue his aggressive play.

  3. Milos on Moya:

    “I have an inability to sort of after matches are over to sort of switch off and relax completely. I think he can bring that calm to me. With the vast knowledge that he has, and he has great sort of sense of how to approach, how to talk to people, I think he can help me in those kind of different situations.”

    I wish Rafa would add an ex-player to his team to help him find calm too.

  4. Milosh on Moya:
    “I think he brings a lot of experience and understanding, but at the same time, he’s going to work very hard with me on court. He’s also going to give me that kind of calm and peace in moments where maybe I can’t find it on my own off the court and before the important matches.”

    I wish Rafa takes his own advice about new coaches.

    Rafael Nadal tips ‘amazing champion’ Carlos Moya to help Milos Raonic reach next level

    http://www.thenational.ae/sport/tennis/rafael-nadal-tips-amazing-champion-carlos-moya-to-help-milos-raonic-reach-next-level

  5. L’Équipe (a French newspaper devoted to sports) published an interview with Carlos Moya on Jan.24, 2016. I have posted questions & answers about Rafa. Here are some Q&A answers about coaching (translated from French by Mark Nixon):
    ¤¤ Question: “How many tournaments will you be at for him [Raonic]?”
    CARLOS MOYA: “Fifteen weeks, including the four Slams. I didn’t want to be away from home too much. I have three young children. But I know everything will be done properly in my absence because he has a solid team around him, especially with Riccardo Piatti (ex-coach of Ljubicic and Gasquet).”
    .
    Question: ” How many players asked you to coach them before Raonic?”
    CARLOS MOYA: “A few. But either it wasn’t the right time, or they were asking me to travel too many weeks.”
    .
    Question: “We’ve been hearing a constant rumor for the last two years about a Moya-Nadal team-up …
    CARLOS MOYA: “That’s come from the media and John McEnroe…I’ve never looked to be a part of his team. We’re good friends…” ¤¤
    .
    The article in L’Équipe in French:
    http://www.lequipe.fr/Tennis/Article/Carlos-moya-raonic-un-des-mecs-les-plus-pros/627555

  6. Raonic has the calmness in him that I find will help him in tight situations. He’s like Delpo I feel, with calm and composed demeanor.

    • Calm and composed like Delpo and that similar strength to get him through tight situations; but less affable. Ed calls it “the inscrutability of Raonic” and contrasts it with the “exhuberance of Monf”. That’s what I’m seeing. I don’t find Milosh as engaging as Delpo – at least the not the on-court persona.

      But glad I woke up to catch some of this.

  7. So Raonic wins it. Congrats to him and Moya. Moya looking very handsome there!

    I think we will have a good SF between Raonic and Murray, a contrast in styles. Lets see how Murray deals with him.

    Im glad that Raonic comes through as I think Monfils wont have a chance against Murray and Djoko/Fed as he’ll simply get exhausted vs them.

  8. Andy will have a very tough time with his vulnerable 2nd serve. Raonic is always looking to take initiatives in both service and return games so Murray will be defending and counterpunching a lot.

    Raonic’s net game, not only volleying skills,but his whole transition game has become very formidable and he is improving. He will be an even bigger force at Wimbledon. His forehand is also getting better and better and so is his footwork. Because of massive firepower and because he can change direction of the ball with reasonable accuracy, he is able to win a good share of baseline rallies too.

    • won’t be surprised if that happens Ed. I don’t think Murray is a favorite to win this to be honest. Both have almost an equal chance. Murray’s strength will obviously be his world class ROS. Raonic will have to contend with a different level of returns on friday.

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