Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Khachanov vs. Kyrgios

Rafael Nadal will continue his Australian Open campaign when he collides with fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta on Saturday. The winner of that contest will battle either Karen Khachanov or Nick Kyrgios in round four.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (27) Pablo Carreno Busta


It would be an understatement to say that Carreno Busta much prefers having Nadal on the same side of the court as opposed to the opposite one. They are 8-1 together in doubles, while Nadal is sweeping the singles head-to-head series 4-0 heading into Saturday’s third-round matchup at the Australian Open. The current world No. 1 is 8-1 in total sets, but Carreno Busta’s one set came in their only previous hard-court encounter (Doha 2016).

Is there any hope for the 30th-ranked Spaniard this time? Probably not, but Nadal at least left the door briefly open for Federico Delbonis to steal a set in a 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-1 victory on Thursday night. Nadal preceded that result with a 6-2, 6-3, 6-0 beatdown of Hugo Dellien, while Carreno Busta has defeated both Jozef Kovalik and Peter Gojowyczk in four sets. Carreno Busta will make for some entertaining rallies, but this should be a straightforward affair for his heavily-favored countryman.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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(23) Nick Kyrgios vs. (16) Karen Khachanov

Khachanov and Kyrgios will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Saturday. Their only previous contest was an infamous one, and that is putting it mildly. It was the scene of arguably Kyrgios’ biggest-ever meltdown to date, and that is saying a lot. Beyond the Aussie’s shenanigans, the most importing thing for Khachanov is that he stayed composed and prevailed 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 6-2 in round two of the Cincinnati Masters last summer.

A better-behaved Kyrgios (he is still on provisional suspension stemming from that match, after all) has been on top of his game so far in Melbourne, taking out Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets and Gilles Simon in four. The world No. 26 was not exactly dominant on either occasion, however. Khachanov has a new lease on life after outlasting Mikael Ymer in a fifth-set tiebreaker on Thursday. The 17th-ranked Russian struggled physically at the end, but that was really due to just one marathon point in the ‘breaker and he had previously looked fine throughout the four-hour and 34-minute struggle. This is another good opportunity for Khachanov against an opponent who is known to go off the rails whenever things aren’t easy for him.

Pick: Khachanov in 4

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33 Comments on Australian Open R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Khachanov vs. Kyrgios

  1. You really hate kyrgios lol, you always predict him to lose against player he would eat for breakfast if he’s motivated. Khachanov barely won against Ymer and dropped a set against an unknown Spanish guy, do you really think he could beat kyrgios? Come on, if nick is motivated and focused he will beat him in 3.

  2. Once again picking against kyrgios? He ain’t losing to anyone but the big 4 I’m telling you. If there is any time he will be 💯 motivated and play for real it’s this tournament because he wants to make money to donate to the bush fires relief charities.

  3. Kyrgios needs to focus once again for 3 sets out of 5. Sure, he’s motivated, but most likely his temper will get the best of him.

  4. This is quite a difficult draw for Nadal given his vulnerability atm and on this surface. Any one of these players can cause the upset!

    Careno Busta
    Kyrgios
    Theim
    Medvedev

  5. Oh please! PCB was never going to beat Rafa! The conditions are different in this day match. The ball is jumping up. Rafa came out serving very well. He seems comfortable playing PCB.

    • It was a masterclass wasn’t it! Great serving and he was really in the zone. 42 winners yo 7 UE !

      You could see how the conditions helped him redline his game.

      Night conditions not good for Fedal with these slow balls

      • True there, Rafa said it himself, that the sun and the heat made the ball bounce higher and that’s good for him.

        I do agree playing at night has disadvantaged both Fed and Rafa because of the way they play. It doesn’t affect Djoko much as he likes slower conditions, making it even harder to beat him imo as he has more time to get to the ball and the lower bounce doesn’t affect him when he doesn’t put in too much topspin.

      • Rafa loves the sun! 42 winners!?! In 3 sets? Wonder if that’s a record for him.

        So next match will be Nik at Nite? Or maybe KK at night… Maybe if KK wins they’ll let Medvedev have the night match. Will it be on RLA or Melbourne Arena as NK prefers?

        I haven’t watched the match yet, went to sleep at 11 and woke up at 3, figured I’d check in – 4 hours is plenty of sleep, right? Happy news! Think I’ll stay up for awhile and see some of it. Rafa does look pretty in pink.

  6. Perfect match length for Rafa today!!…Yess!!…

    I guess his next match is nite session…so..hope he will adjust better to cold condition this time..heavy ball & stuff..unlike in his 1st match.

  7. You think Rafa stands a chance against kyrgios esp at night on rla..kyrgios has not played a match on rla neither has kacha..you think that will make a difference ?

    • Thanks for the link, Augusta! Rafa’s a total professional. He enjoyed watching Roger v Millman and plans to enjoy watching NK v KK. I expect he will. Like so many Rafans I wish I could be more like him.

  8. Why can’t rafa insist on day session for his 4th n qf…they do have a say right..i understand semi n final are mandatory at night

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