Australian Open QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Federer vs. Sandgren

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer remain on a collision course for the Australian Open semifinals. The last roadblock comes on Tuesday, when Djokovic battles Milos Raonic and Federer faces Tennys Sandgren.

(32) Milos Raonic vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Djokovic and Raonic will be going head-to-head for the 10th time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Australian Open on Tuesday. All nine of their previous encounters have gone the way of Djokovic, who is 5-0 at Raonic’s expense on hard courts. They have met only once since 2016, with the Serb prevailing 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 two years ago at the Cincinnati Masters.

Although Raonic is by no means among the title favorites, perhaps no one has been more impressive than these two players so far this fortnight. The 35th-ranked Canadian has surrendered neither a set nor a service game while defeating Lorenzo Giustino, Christian Garin, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Marin Cilic. Djokovic was similarly dominant during victories over Jan-Lennard Struff (the German, however, stole one set), Tatsuma Ito, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Diego Schwartzman. Like Struff, Raonic has the power game that can hit through Djokovic at times. But the underdog will almost surely crack sooner rather than later against a player of the world No. 2’s defensive caliber. As usual in this matchup, returning will beat serving.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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(3) Roger Federer vs. Tennys Sandgren

For the second time in the last three years, Sandgren has made a run to the Australian Open quarterfinals. His reward is a first-ever meeting with Federer, who is obviously accustomed to making it much, much farther than just the quarterfinals Down Under. Bidding for a seventh title in Melbourne and 21st slam overall, the 38-year-old Swiss has advanced this fortnight with victories over Steve Johnson, Filip Krajinovic, John Millman (in a fifth-set tiebreaker), and Marton Fucsovics.

Sandgren’s success has once again come completely out of nowhere, as he fell off the map for much of 2019 following his 2018 Aussie success. Toiling away at 100th in the world, the American has suddenly strung together wins over Marco Trungelliti, Matteo Berrettini, Sam Querrey, and Fabio Fognini. Federer has not yet heated up at this tournament as he normally does toward the business end of majors, and Sandgren will make him work extremely hard in points. Still, the world No. 3 should have more than enough to navigate his way through what continues to be a friendly draw.

Pick: Federer in 4

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25 Comments on Australian Open QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Raonic, Federer vs. Sandgren

  1. I mentioned this previously, but I am very curious to see how the death of Kobe Bryant affects Djokovic on-court. They were friends, and Novak really looked up to him.

    • That helicopter crash was so very sad. Kobe Bryant was not the only loss. His daughter was also killed along with the pilot and several other passengers, including a coach, his wife and child. 🙁 Terrible, terrible thing.

      I’d think Djoker will have a bit of time to recover. They were more “celebrity” friends than buddies, I think. Did you notice that Rafa wore a Lakers cap after his match in tribute? Tuts probably came up with one for him.

  2. Fed in 3 or 4 (only because losing the first set seems to be a Thing with him lately but he’s probably past that now).

    Djokovic in 3 or 4. Has Raonic ever beaten him?

  3. Sandgren will probably be overwhelmed tomorrow, I would be very surprised if he isn’t. He might wake up and take the 3rd set, but probably that’s about it. Federer had it ridiculously easy this year and he still almost went out. He might even make the final with some luck (opponent(s) getting injured or Raonic somehow beating Djokovic then choking).

    No, Milos never beat Novak but of course it’s not about him surpassing himself. It all depends on the Serb’s fitness/form, and he wasn’t really tested so far. Djoko can’t afford any blips against such a formidable server and I think that he won’t get it as easy as most think.

  4. Raonic in 4
    Raonic is well and truly in that age range where players have historically performed at their peak and he’s had time away from the sport to reflect on what he needs to do on the court both physically and mentally. This will be Djokovic’s toughest test to date at the AO.

    Federer in 3
    Federer will be out to prove to Tennys who is the master of tennis. Tennys will be thinking it has to be me because I was born with a name that sounds the same as tennis but Fed will be motivated to prove otherwise, being the perfectly nice, selfless guy that he is.

  5. Fed looks to have hurt his back in this match. His first serve speed is down at 175 or so. But Sandgren is also playing spectacularly well, especially serving. Looks like an upset unless Fed can pull something out of the hat.

  6. Something is wrong with Fed. He went off court for treatment for about eight minutes. Even though Sandgren is playing well, Fed should have been able to take care of him easily. This guy is ranked # 100 for heaven’s sake.

    I can’t believe that Sandgren could go to the semifinals. I think maybe that match with Millman did take it out of Fed.

  7. Simply unbelievable; Fed just saved like 8 match points! Sandgren may be ranked 100 but he’s playing like a top 5 player and Fed has a bad back or something. This match is going to a 5th. Wow.

  8. Fed will win the fifth handily ..if djoker wins what will fed have for djoker though..I’m not sure if this slam is meant to be feds Houdini act..2 matches now back from brink of defeat

    • Well, he’s not winning anything unless his back is close to 100%. Somehow he has found the juice in the 5th; not sure if he had a cortisone injection or something.

      • Remember when I said Fed is a mystery to me at this AO? He still is.
        It’s like all that happened in that Wimbledon final turns im his favour right now. The tennis Gods want him alive here if you wish.
        Such a player Sandgren. Reminds me of Delpotro. I hope he recovers and goes over blaming himself. This must be painful. It just shows to us that :1. We have to take the chances we are given and 2. Sometimes things don’t depend on us, you just have to accept it and move on. And if it’s necessary, forgive yourself.

  9. Let’s see Joe. 2 back to back Houdini acts are meant to be for something big i think

    I hope novak wins so that we get the dream semi

    • This was the first match that I didn’t feel something was right with Fed. Millman and Fucsovics played well (especially the former), and Fed wasn’t at his best. For me, the best indication that he wasn’t right physically was his service motion and speed for much of this match. But who knows? He may be back at 100% in the SF, and then he’ll certainly have his chances to win the tourney.

  10. Novak/Raonic seem to be favourites at this point, unless Fed totally recovers.
    I think Thiem will be hard for Rafa. May be wrong, but this match will probably be something similar to Kyrgios match. I expect 4-5 sets. It’s a 55-45 for Rafa to me.

  11. The old man is destined to live until SF, I think.
    Nole would not be generous, and will take Fed in 3 after he passes Raonic.
    Raonic should be a much tougher opponent judging by the way Fed is playing.

  12. 5 sets with Millman, 4 with Fucs, 5 with Sangdren. Hats off to Fed for surviving so long but SF is when the journey ends when he likely meets Novak.

  13. I do feel very bad for Sandgren, who played incredibly well (especially on serve) for much of the match. He was upset, perhaps justifiably, that Fed went and took a bathroom break after he did before the 5th, but it affected him more than it should have, along with his missed chances. Still, he really should be a top-20 player if he can play like this at all consistently.

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