Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kyrgios, Thiem vs. Monfils

The stage is set for another showdown between Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios, this time in round four of the Australian Open. Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals on Monday.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (23) Nick Kyrgios


One of the most bad-blooded rivalries in tennis will be renewed when Nadal and Kyrgios square off for the eighth time in their careers during fourth-round action at the Australian Open on Monday. Nadal leads the head-to-head series by a competitive 4-3 margin, with Kyrgios having won two of their three hard-court encounters. They have split a pair of Grand Slam contests, both at Wimbledon; Kyrgios pulled off a 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3 upset in 2014 and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) last summer.

Kyrgios is putting together what his really just his second impressive run in Melbourne (also quarterfinals in 2015), but it has not been easy. The 26th-ranked Australian followed up wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Gilles Simon by outlasting Karen Khachanov 6-2, 7-6(5), 6-7(6), 6-7(7), 7-6(8) in an instant classic on Saturday night. He will have to recover quickly to face a well-rested Nadal, who has easily disposed of Hugo Dellien, Federico Delbonis, and Pablo Carreno Busta. The turnaround is too quick and the court is not quick enough for another Nadal-Kyrgios battle to live up to the hype.

Ricky Pick: Nadal in 3
Cheryl Pick: Nadal in 4

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(10) Gael Monfils vs. (5) Dominic Thiem

Not too much unlike Kyrgios (even though he does not come with the same kind of baggage), Monfils has the talent to win a Grand Slam but has not yet put it all together. The 10th-ranked Frenchman may never get over the hump given that he is 33 years old, but for now things have been so far so good in Melbourne this fortnight. Monfils is through to the fourth round following victories over Yen-Hsun Lu, Ivo Karlovic, and Ernests Gulbis.

Up next is sixth career meeting with Thiem, who is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0. They most recently faced each other last spring at Roland Garros, where the Austrian dominated 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. A hard court obviously gives Monfils a much better chance, but Thiem has improved bigtime on this surface over the past two years. The reigning Indian Wells champion recently finished runner-up at the Nitto ATP Finals and he booked his spot in the last 16 here by taking out Adrian Mannarino, Alex Bolt, and Taylor Fritz. Thiem’s level right now is too good for Monfils to suddenly erase his demons from this particular matchup.

Ricky Pick: Thiem in 4
Cheryl Pick: Thiem in 4

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33 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kyrgios, Thiem vs. Monfils

  1. Kevin….I am thinking exactly like u!…We will know it tomorrow whether it will affect him or not…
    Play a huge server like Milos will not be easy even tho h2h clearly on novak.

  2. Rafa seems quite settled! First set in the bag. Hope he ups his intensity even and not let Nick back in the match!! Like what i’m seeing thus far!

    VAMOS Rafa!

  3. Nadal clearly better in that first set, but the difference was basically two dumb drop shots by NK when he was up 40-15 for the only break. Nick should do two things that are easily done, imo: first, stand back a bit on ROS to give yourself a bit more time. Second, skip the drop shots and hit out on the forehand. Kyrgios has a nuclear FH when he wants it, but he almost never lets it rip.

  4. Rafa should already had a break. That tweener Nick played, Rafa should have approached the net and just finished the point. Instead he stayed back waiting for the ball and ended up losing the point, sigh!

  5. NK playing solid tennis and feeding off the crowd, up 5-2. Nadal is playing well, imo; just had one loose game where Kyrgios broke. We’ll see if Nick can close out the set and even this up.

  6. I know why I feared this match..,.one lousy game, one hiccup and the set is gone…Nick is now pumped up and the match becomes tougher for Rafa.,,

    Vamos Champ!

    • It will stay close only if NK can maintain his focus and intensity. That’s a big if over an entire best of 5 match. But as long as he keeps serving well, I think he’ll keep his head in it.

  7. Rafa has himself to blame for not taking his chances in the first service game of Kyrgios in the second set; in addition to that he throws in a poor service game to lose the set.

    When Kyrgios is ahead in a set, its very difficult to break him to get back on serve, because he tends to serve very well to hold on to the lead.

    Now Rafa has to work very hard to win, as usual he always like to make hard work of everything and ‘enjoys the suffering’!

  8. Anyone who said this would be a damp squid of a match couldn’t have been more wrong! Let’s see if NK can take it to a tie break.

  9. Lucky for Rafa, he wins the third set TB, but as usual falters while serving for it with a SP. Luckily Kyrgios himself makes a DF too and then hit his shot into the net at SP to lose the TB and the third set.

    Rafa better buck up and plays well throughout the remaining of this match, unforgivable if he loses from here!

  10. Yeah, I knew this would be a nerve breaking match for Rafans! It is never a straight forward match when Rafa faces Nick! Rafa nearly gave me a heart attack in this tiebreak…Huh…it’s not over yet, Nick isn’t going anywhere…

    Vamos Rafa! Vamos Champ!!!

    • Heart attack alone!! My stomach was turning upside down along with everything else that goes with it! Being a Rafa fan nowadays is really not for the faint-hearted nor for those with less than a cast iron stomach!

    • Yes Thiem, and Thiem played only one hour and fifty minutes today to beat Monfils! Rafa has now played for three hours, hopefully Rafa can use his guile and everything to beat Thiem ASAP.

      • Well from what i understand Monfils may have been hampered so……

        But boy oh boy, the AO did manage to put every roadblock in Rafa’s way didn’t they?!

  11. Nick has come down in this third set but hasn’t given up, which is nice to see. Hard to imagine Rafa giving up the break advantage at this point, but stranger things have happened.

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