Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Wawrinka

First-time Australian Open quarterfinalist Alexander Zverev will take on the Stanimal, Stan Wawrinka, on Wednesday for a spot in the semifinals. The winner will go up against either Rafael Nadal or Dominic Thiem.

Almost exactly six years ago, seed Stan Wawrinka came somewhat out of nowhere to capture his first of three Grand Slam titles. And it wasn’t a case of a favorable draw, either. The Swiss took out four players in the top 20, including Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal en route to the title. Wawrinka knows how to play in Melbourne.

But it wasn’t always so for the current world No. 15. A year ago, Wawrinka was ranked just inside No. 60 in the rankings and slowly making his way back from a lengthy layoff due to knee injury. He was out of the Australian Open in the second round.

All indications say that Wawrinka has re-found his form. The veteran hasn’t had an easy path to the quarterfinals, thanks to a mid-week illness, but he was back to fighting form by the time he met Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16. He defeated the 2019 U.S. Open finalist in five sets.

Alexander Zverev, the world No. 7, is into his first ever Australian Open quarterfinal. The first of the NextGen stars is still looking for his big breakthrough at the majors. Thanks to his success at Masters events the German was ranked as high as third in the world, but a quarterfinal (twice at the French Open) is the best he’s managed at the Slams.

Zverev showed some of his best tennis over the first week in Melbourne. He came into the tournament off three straight losses in round robin play at the ATP Cup the first week of January. But he found his form (and his serve) at just the right time. The 22-year-old hasn’t dropped a set en route to the quarters, including an impressive win over a red-hot Andrey Rublev.

This match has all the makings of a real barnburner. Zverev enjoys a 2-0 head-to-head over Wawrinka, though they haven’t played for nearly three years–but Wawrinka has the superior experience in big matches.

Cheryl pick: Wawrinka in 5

Ricky pick: Wawrinka in 4

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21 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Wawrinka

  1. I haven’t actually seen Zverev play in this tournament, so I’ve been as surprised as anyone by his results. But I know that Nadal and others have said that there is no reason someone as good as him, who has won masters 1000s, can’t win a major. And they’re right. It’s really only a matter of time. If he is back on track and even improved from his 2018 form, there’s no reason why this can’t be the tournament.

    I’m a big Wawrinka fan, and he’s the player I’d most like to see advance to the final from that side. If he can play consistently at his best level then he’s nearly impossible to beat. He did nearly that for 2 sets against Medvedev. I’m not sure he has it in him anymore to deliver the goods for a sustained period, which he’ll need to do if he is to win this match and this tournament. I think a much younger player with equal firepower and more to prove will be too much. Zverev in 5.

  2. Wow! Your review says Wawrinka has a better record in big matches but the head to head is 2 zip Zverev way. Haven’t played for nearly 3 years.
    How much as Zverev improved in 3 years & is Stan better than then or not as good? He’s certainly been off injured, is 3 years older.
    Wawrinka lucky to beat Seppi, who threw that match away in 5 & again lucky to beat Medvedev.
    I’m no fan of Zverev but this should be an easy win for Zverev.
    Interesting review but Joe Smith has it right. Zverev will win. He’s a younger, fitter & better player in better form.

  3. We all know what happens when Wawrinka reaches the final stages of a GS and also what happens when Zverev does the same. Saying that the Russian is a better player than Wawrinka is absurd; he isn’t and probably will never be regardless of how many GS he could win in the much weaker tennis era which is upon us.

    Unless Stanislas is too tired by now, he should win this one in 4 or 5.

  4. I personally hope that Zverev will come out with the win. I just think it may break a mental barrier for the guy. So, yeah, my heart says Zverev in 4, but my head is telling me Stan in 4. Also, I’m still very surprised by Medvedev’s winless record in 5 set matches!

  5. Wawrinka is in best form. Great confidence from beating one of the hottest players on tour in 5 sets, now he meets icecold Zverev, who have been absolutely down before entering this years AO. The best he have done is beating a empty Rublev. Wawrinka should win this if he plays well, the only way Zverev is winning this is by playing his best match of the tournament and hope Wawrinka doesnt play his best.

  6. if Stan goes into Wawa mode, I’m not sure how anyone at the other end can contain this animal.

    Stanimal in 4.

    If it goes to 5, that’s probably the end of Stan’s journey whether he wins or not.

  7. I don’t know what happened in that first set. If you blinked, you missed it. Zverev seems to have regrouped in the second set.

    I think Stan will win this. It looks like Zverev woke up, so it should be a good one. I can see it going four or five sets,

  8. It seems that Sasha not spending too much time in the earlier rounds has done a world of good for him here, I think he’s physically fresher than Stan and Stan now is making more errors than usual, whilst Sasha is playing better and better.

    I think for Sasha to go far at a slam, it’s important that he does not spend too much energy in the early rounds, that way he will have enough in the tank to go the distance, I feel that should be the way forward for him at the slams.

  9. I was hoping Stan would win but at least Ubaldo will have to admit that Rafa “does know something about tennis”. I think making a semi qualifies as “doing well” at a slam.

  10. Well done to Sasha, reaches a slam SF at last! He speaks well during his on court interview, I can see why many view him as the next big thing, the next poster boy of tennis. He has the looks, the poise and speaks well, and now maybe he can back them up with a slam title in addition to his masters and WTF titles.

    Tsitsipas, the next poster boy imo, will have to wait a little longer.

  11. I had to go away after the first set, came back, and see that Zverev won! What a turnaround. I’m disappointed since I was rooting for Stan, but at least I picked it right. Anyway, about time Zverev is in a slam SF. Good for him!

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