The days of a Big 3 are over going into 2025, with Novak Djokovic the only all-time great still left on tour. If anything, we have a Big 2 right now with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz–who split the four Grand Slam titles in 2024.
Will either Sinner or Alcaraz add to his haul at the Australian Open, or will Djokovic regain his throne at Melbourne Park? Is Alexander Zverev finally in line for his first major title? Can Daniil Medvedev get back in the mix? Those are just some of the questions to be answered over the upcoming fortnight Down Under.
Here are my best bets on the men’s side at the 2025 Aussie Open.
Novak Djokoic (+600)
It is true that Djokovic may be past his prime at 37 years old. It is also true that he can never be discounted at any Grand Slam–especially the Australian Open, where he has triumphed on a record 10 occasions. The Serb failed to win any majors last season, but don’t forget that he won the tournament that mattered most to him: the Paris Olympics. Finally the owner of an Olympic gold medal, Djokovic could be poised for more success on the big stage this year. If he is, it will likely come on his Melbourne stomping grounds. He is 94-9 lifetime at this event and has won it nine times in his last 13 appearances. Djokovic’s draw is not ideal with Alcaraz in his quarter, but at least he wouldn’t have to face Sinner until the final.
Daniil Medvedev (+1600)
Just like Djokovic at +600, it has been a long time since you could get Medvedev at such lofty odds to win a major (not including at Roland Garros, where the Russian always comes with long odds given his disdain for clay). Medvedev is a relative longshot in advance of the 2025 Aussie Open because he did not win a single title in 2024. However, it’s not like he had a bad year. Medvedev still finds himself in the top five (currently No. 5) and he came within a set of triumphing in Melbourne (eventually lost to Sinner from two sets up). A self-proclaimed hard-court specialist, Medvedev has a great chance to get back on track at this particular tournament. An ideal draw also helps. He is in Taylor Fritz’s quarter and would not have to meet Sinner until the semis and either Alcaraz or Djokovic until the final.
Tommy Paul (+10000)
Djokovic’s relative monopoly on Australian Open titles means there hasn’t been room for many–or any–surprising champions in Melbourne over the past decade or two. However, unexpected results are still the norm in Australia–where players can be rusty at the start of the year. Lower-ranked guys have every shot at making a deep run, and eventually one of those runs is going to conclude with the trophy. Will it happen this year? Maybe not. But at +10000 odds, Paul has great value. The 27-year-old American is up to No. 12 in the world and prepared well for the season’s first major by reaching the semis in Adelaide. He is a former semifinalist Down Under and has a favorable draw this time with Casper Ruud his nearest 5-8 seed and neither Sinner, Alcaraz, nor Djokovic in his quarter.
who ya got?
Love these write ups.
Can’t argue with a play on Djokovic at that number. If he’s motivated and wants to top Margaret Court’s total major record regardless of gender, you can find far worse bets to make at +600. Alcaraz in his quarter gives me a little pause for concern, but Djokovic’s pedigree at the AO feels “Nadal at Roland Garros-lite” and I think that his relatively difficult draw is reflected in the current price.
Also, like the Tommy Paul play. He always comes into tournaments well prepared and in shape. Also, the most recent loss to FAA in Adelaide looks far better when you dissect the numbers and you could easily make the case that Paul should have won the match. For instance, Paul had a healthy dominance ratio (% of return points won / % of serve points lost) of 1.14 speaking to a potential missed opportunity. Winning the AO might be a bridge too far to cross, but at the number, you set yourself up for a nice hedging opportunity down the road. As an add on, you might like Paul to win Q4 at +1000, which would also be hedgable should he face Zverev for the Q4 crown.
I am worried, however, about Medvedev going into the AO. Off the court, his wife and him just welcomed a new child in the brief off season, and he hasn’t played a match in the wrap around season. Though he has had previous success at the AO, one has to question his preparation and wonder if Daniil plans to use this as a soft kick off to the season with an eye toward peaking at the North American Hardcourt season far later down the road when others are breaking down.
More numerically speaking, Medvedev appears to be an a slow but progressive downward slide since his peak in 2021 which culminated in him winning the US Open. Consider the following statistics:
Hold % – 2021 = 87.0%, 2022 = 86.4%, 2023 = 84.7%, 2024 = 80.1%
Break % – 2021 = 31.4%, 2022 = 26.7%, 2023 = 30.5%, 2024 = 27.0%
You can see similar trends in Ace %, dominance ratio, etc. Medvedev is holding serve less frequently and breaking less frequently – and one has to question whether or not this is the normal course of aging for a tennis professional not named Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic. For someone who plays such a physical brand of tennis once the point is started, not getting as many free points on serve can be especially taxing for a player like Daniil. That said, the saving grace for Daniil is the relatively easy Q2 where someone like Joao Fonseca might be his biggest threat early. I just can’t back him at the current numbers given all the unknowns. Of all the quarters, Q2 might be the one to take a longer shot or two.
Best of luck to all.