Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

It will be the fourth Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray when the top two players in the world battle for the title on Sunday. Murray is coming off a five-setter against Milos Raonic and will have enjoyed one fewer day of rest when they take the court.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers when they contest a rematch of the 2015 Australian Open final on Sunday night. Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 21-9 after taking 10 of their last 11 encounters. They most recently faced each other in the Paris Masters title match last fall, when the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-4.

Djokovic is 4-0 lifetime against Murray in Melbourne. The world No. 1 triumphed 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-0 last year on the heels of victories in 2011 (straight sets in the final), 2012 (five sets in the semis), and 2013 (four sets in the final).
Djoker 1
Murray will get another shot at his heavily-favored opponent, but not before a five-set scare during semifinal action on Friday. The world No. 2 trailed Milos Raonic two sets to one before recovering to beat a hobbled Canadian 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 in four hours and three minutes. Murray preceded that triumph with defeats of Alexander Zverev, Sam Groth, Joao Sousa, Bernard Tomic, and David Ferrer, while dropping second sets to Sousa and Ferrer along the way.

Djokovic also endured one five-setter en route to championship Sunday, and he did so in far more shocking fashion than Murray. The top seed sprayed a ridiculous 100 unforced errors but managed to survive a third-round test against Gilles Simon 6-3, 6-7(1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Djokovic also boasts wins over Hyeon Chung, Quentin Halys, Andreas Seppi, Kei Nishikori, and Roger Federer. The 10-time major champion was especially ruthless in sets one and two of his 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision against Federer on Thursday night.

“Against Roger, these first two sets have been probably the best two sets I’ve played against him overall I think throughout my career,” Djokovic assessed. “I’ve had some moments against him in sets where I’ve played on a high level, but this was…yeah…I think a different level than from before.”

A different level is exactly what Djokovic has been on from everyone else on tour over the last year and a half. He went 82-6 last season, reached the final of all but one tournament, and captured 11 titles–three of the slam variety. So far this year Djokovic is 11-0 with a winner’s trophy in Doha to his credit.

Still, Murray insists he has a chance in this one.

“The most important thing for me is to sustain my level for long enough, not just for one set here or there, a few games here or there,” the underdog explained. “I need to do it for a very long period if I want to get the win. That’s my challenge. I’ve obviously played very good tennis here. I’ve given myself many opportunities, [reaching] the finals (four times); seven straight quarterfinals, as well. I have a very good shot on Sunday if I play my best tennis.”
Murray
But can he play his best tennis for what will likely be–if he is going to prevail–five sets? In Djokovic’s two major victories over the Scot in 2015, he won the deciding sets 6-0 (Australian Open final) and 6-1 (French Open semis). Djokovic also swept Murray 6-0 in the third set of their Miami title match.

Perhaps one thing the second seed has going for him is that he is essentially a rich man’s Simon, and it is Simon who has given Djokovic by far his toughest match of the tournament. Most of Djokovic’s wounds were recorded as self-inflicted ones, but the Frenchman played his part by forcing his opponent to hit an incredible amount of balls. Murray will do the same–at least until he runs out of gas. Look for Murray to once again stay competitive early before Djokovic powers his way to a sixth Aussie Open title.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

[polldaddy poll=9291052]

359 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray

  1. I would love to see Murray find a way to this final. My heart hopes for Murray to somehow get it done, but my head says Novak in 4 sets.

  2. Novak in 4 or 5 sets; Murray with 5% chance in 5 sets.

    Murray will as usual tries to outhit Novak from the baseline; he probably still hasn’t learned any lesson the last four times he lost to Novak here at the AO. Sigh…

  3. A foregone conclusion. Murray will be lucky to win a set. The absence of Nadal at the top is harming tennis. Fed and Stan have tried to hold the fort but flexi-egg-man is still boring the pants off many fans. Rafa needs to rediscover his prowess if tennis is to hold it’s interest once again.

    • It’s not like Nadal-Djokovic matches are very interesting right now and I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of Djokovic hammering Nadal had they met this year.
      I do think the use of CVAC is highly questionable though (Djokovic admitted to having used after playing Simon. No wonder he didn’t need to practice). It’s such a grey area. Either the ATP should make the device available en masse or ban it. It’s already banned in Europe but US and Australia are less strict about it according to Novak himself.

  4. Kerber won a tight 1st round match having saved a match point and here she is in the final. Tennis is about margins, if only Rafa had taken the opportunity when Nando was 0:30 down serving to stay in the match in the 4th set, we might have been looking at a Rafole final.

  5. Nadline:

    Don’t depress us all by crying over spilt milk. i just wish Rafa would take some time out the way Agassi did at the age of 29 when he was burnt out. He then came back and played some of the best tennis of his career for the next 4 years.

    • ed, you know I’m only ever one post away from crying over Rafa’s misfortunes. He’s had enough time-outs, though forced on him so I don’t know that it would help him at this point. Who knows why Agassi had the time out – silent ban?

      • ^^ I’ve long felt that ten years of battling with injuries and the see-saw of coming back only to be derailed again has finally got to Rafa. He has lost faith in his body but his sense of responsibility to the game, his trillions of fans, and his sponsors won’t allow him to quit as long as he can still hold a racquet. I hope I’m mistaken or I’ll be taking up tapestry and watching re-runs of Rafa’s glorious moments.

        • ed251137 (AT 10:12 AM),
          —He [Rafa] has lost faith in his body…—
          ===
          .
          Actually, you repeat what U.Toni said.
          U.Toni in his interview with COP, a radio network in Spain, in Dec.2015 : “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”

  6. Gosh people, don’t depress me this early in the day…I am already devastated over Rafa don’t do this please…it hurts to read about it especially that I happen to be aware of it myself…
    And now Kerber will most likely lose this! Damn it…

  7. Way to go, Kerber! Never give up attitude paid off! And when I think that she could have gone out in the first round…amazing…the stars aligned for her…

  8. Kerber is the 1st German this century to win a Major as Rafa is the 1st Spaniard this century to win a Major, Cilic the 1st Croatian, Delpo the first Argentian and Murray the first Britzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…………..Siavone the 1st Italianzzzzzzzzzzzzz,Stosur the first Australianzzzzzzzzzzzzz………..

    • Speaking of Germans, RT Genny (1h ago): “Just occurred to me… it had to be a German who stopped Serena from drawing Steffi…”

  9. Perhaps this is the year for change? Kerber just won- against all the odds so perhaps Murray can do the same tomorrow in the final? Djokovic is clearly the favourite – but who knows what the future brings? Good luck and may the best man win!

  10. Serena got so tight..so many UE..serve missing..Kerber held it so well..she made Serena play 1 more shot and the errors flew from Serenas racquet.

    Amazing that she could not serve it out but broke Serena to win it.

    Congrats Angie!! Enjoy the moment. She looked so happy and pretty smiling away in joy. JUst like Penetta looked last USO 🙂

    I am sure whole tour was supporting Kerber.

      • Agree. I never said Serena gifted the match. I said Kerber made her play 1 more ball, ran everything down and the errors flew from Serenas racquet.

        • Though I was screaming at Kerber during match. She was defending so much..I was like..attack more..step up the court 🙂 Sounds similar to a certain guy from Mallorca 🙂

    • if the robot is on rechargeable batteries I hope he forgets to charge them before going on court because he can sneakily change ordinary batteries during a toilet break.

  11. Since this is most active thread now, posting here

    ‘We have not decided yet if I will play another tournament besides Rio – said Rafa interviewed by IB3 – ‘I’ll decide in the next few days, at the moment I don’t want to speak about it.’

    When asked about how he felt and how things are going on court, Rafa admitted that last week: ‘I was sad, tired and disappointed, but this is not the end. Now I am okay and working hard and feeling good on court.

    ‘I am aware of the fact that those good feelings have to show up in competition and I keep on working so that it can happen in the next tournament.’

    Rafa also spoke about the new racket he has been using since December: ‘It is a racket that gives me more top spin and power. My coach Toni analyzes the data in different periods of the year, then we make a comparation and it helps us to understand what we have to do.’

  12. So Rafa has been using a new racquet AND he returned to Majorca.

    Misinformation and false corrections are everywhere.

    #WheresRafa

  13. Back to tennis!!!! Jamie falls at the final fence after holding match point against the wily Steps and Nestor.
    But Bruno saves the day and now they’re serving for the match a second time.

    • Andy Murray winning an Australian Open title after doggedly putting himself there (since 2010) would be special. Go Andy! Yes, I’m a Nole fan – but can’t help it. Nole is already my personal greatest tennis athlete along with Gilles Simon and some others – I don’t care about the GS arms race. If Angelique Kerber can do it…

  14. The AO organisers have finally tamed the endless, frankly boring speeches from sponsors which blighted so many presentations in the past. Who will ever forget the debacle when Novak and Rafa, who were both on the point of total collaps after close on six hours on court, while the Japanese Bank CEO droned on and on and on. Hope other tournament directors take note.

  15. So Jamie won in the end! Great for him! I saw the first set and the beginning of the second and Nestor&Stepanek looked to be in full control! One Murray wining the title, are the stars aligned for his brother too? Sure would love to see it happening…

  16. The hyperbaric oxygen chamber is used by many athletes. Mike Bryan, Bethany sands, Michael Phelps, etc
    Murray has tried it and wasnt impressed.
    The USA was fine with it during Olympics when Phelps won a zillion medals. They can’t say too much about it now.

    • I appreciate the clarification regarding hyperbaric oxygen chambers. I went to a physical therapy place where they used them. It is true that they have been used by many athletes.

      This is not news.

        • vamosrafa,

          I predicted Novak to win in 4 sets, but did say that my heart wants Murray to win. I would love to see it happen! But Novak has become such a beast in the latter stages of slams these days.

          I recorded the Murray/Raonic match and had to watch it in two parts yesterday because I had to go out in the afternoon. But I did end up seeing all of it. Murray said some interesting things in his on court interview after the match. He said that he can’t afford to have mental lapses against Novak! No kidding! That he has to play his best and stay focused. Whether he can actually do it, is something else altogether.

          I picked Murray a few times last year to beat Novak and was always wrong. So I can’t go with him again. That’s my take on it! 🙂

          • Nny. Andy was a bracket buster for me last year, too. Andy had such a great clay season – so I picked him for Wimbledon and again…for US Open. He beat Nole in Canada. And I failed to consider how we all knew by then that Davis Cup later in July (vs France) likely threw him off for Wimbledon. He had one foot in Davis cup GBR v Australia during the US Open.

            Then, I fall for it, thinking he’ll have one foot back in England with Kim and pick Rafa to the final. Seems dumb now – Davis cup is a different type of stress than having a baby! Kim has to do all the work this time. He’s focused and motivated. 😀

          • rc,

            Well at least I wasn’t doing bracket challenges at that time! So it was only a matter of just being wrong again!

            Before the back surgery, Andy and Novak would have these blockbuster battles in slams. Then Andy returning from back surgery wasn’t at his best. Then Novak got even better. So it remains to be seen if Andy can step up in a this final and make a real battle of it.

            It cost me dearly picking Rafa to get to the final. I honestly don’t know where my mind was at when I did it. I could live with picking Rafa to get to the quarters or even semis, but not the final! I see how it costs you in the latter stages of the bracket challenges, because that is where you get the most points for being right.

            I was going back and forth with Rafa and Andy to get through the semis. I wasn’t even thinking about Murray being distracted by Kim expecting their baby. I just needed to pick Murray!

            Surely, you believe Novak is going to get this done, right?

          • Nny, if you are in there with a couple seasoned bracketeers like several who shall not be named from TX, (suppose I could see if they’d sign and release a consent form), you have to be reasonably good even in the early rounds. However, I see I’m not significantly better placed in the TG pool than I have been elsewhere!

            As far as who wins the final. A big part of me hopes Andy does right now – that’s not saying I don’t change my mind in the heat of the moment. I’ll be pleased no matter what – the best place to be to enjoy tennis, isn’t it. 🙂

            At this point, I still take Nole in 4…or 3, or 5, in that order.

          • @NNY, agree with your pick. Knowing what to do is different from actually doing it. We know Murray will find it exceedingly hard to do what he wants to.

            To me the ever widening gap between the quality of their 2nd serves if the biggest concerns. Andy rarely wins more than 45% 2nd serve points against Novak. In the past he could return the favor by punishing novak’s 2nd serve but that serve is now one of the best in the game. Not sure how Andy will address this imbalance. Take more risks ? but it’s very very tough to take risks on 2nd serves in key moments.

            Another concern is the Muzz forehand. He is not getting enough penetration. With the current form he has shown, he won’t be able to finish points off with his forehand often enough. He was doing that in Wimbledon 2013 under Lendl… His backhand can and will certainly do damage. He has more firepower on his backhand side than novak , esp on the backhand CC. He will be able to create attackable balls but his forehand is a big question mark at the moment.

            To me if he can address these two issues, he can do serious damage. But we know these are BIG if’s !

          • vamosrafa,

            I noticed in the match with Raonic, the stats indicated that Murray was winning a good percentage of second serve points. At different points in the match they posted stats, after each set as it went on. Murray was winning in the 60’s throughout. Now that’s against Raonic. But I also heard the ESPN commies say that Murray’s been working on his second serve. The big test will be againt Novak because of the pressure he puts on his opponents with his ROS. Then we will see how good Murray’s second serve really is!

            I remember how Lendl was pushing Murray to work on his forehand and strengthen that shot. Novak has no weaknesses on either side, so that also puts pressure on his opponents.

            In an earlier match with Novak, they posted that he hit a 106 mph second serve! So he’s getting even more speed on that one. He’s also improved his first serve, getting more aces. The guy just keeps working to get better and better.

            I will be disappointed if this only goes 3 sets. I want to see Murray at least challenging Novak. It won’t be an easy task.

            I haven’t been able to see any of these matches live because it’s 3:30 am my time. I can’t do that. So I will record it and maybe get up and watch it, or if my curiosity gets the better of me I will go online and check out who won.

          • rc,

            Do you have the latest standings in the bracket challenge? Is it over? I think you updated the status yesterday. I just have to let it go with picking Rafa to go so far. But I really don’t know why I let myself get carried away. No matter what, I still had a decent effort. Now I know that I won’t embarrass myself.

            I would love to see Murray get the win. But I think he’s got an uphill climb against Mount Novak! 🙂

          • Nny, only 2 scenarios left and both have Ricky, Hawk, and you in the top 5. If Andy wins, Collin and Kevin are in and I’m out. Here:
            http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/TheGrandstand2016/pool/whatif.aspx

            Nobody is embarrassing. More of it’s luck, imo. Okay, if you have a good knowledge and follow ATP it helps! No one gets them all right. In my case knowing more sometimes makes me second guess way too much.

            Also it’s interesting to browse the main draw ATP top couple brackets to try and understand how and why they did it. The winners tend to take a chances, one dark horse picked, maybe two, to the qf, sf, f’s. However, you’d be pretty safe in 2015 picking Novak Djokovic for all GS! I didn’t. I picked him to win FO. I picked Andy Murray for Wimbledon and US Open.

            WTA is even more interesting to go see — who picked Kerber?! I’ll have to go look.

  17. As I posted on different thread: Nole in 3. I really can’t see Andy winning a set let alone the whole thing…he was not convincing in the semi against much easier opponent than Novak, how then can he expect to be able to challenge Nole.. And staying up late to watch his brother playing may indicate that Andy has already given up…

    • I definitely think Andy will make it four sets and it’s not completely impossible he could even take this match to five. He has nothing to lose whereas Djokovic has the weight of expectations on his shoulders. Saying that, Nole has shown over and over again in recent years he has an uncanny knack of rescuing matches in the final moments. Have to say it was rather unnerving to see Andy looking quite so laid back with the final looming in a few hours and his wife on the brink of giving birth! All I ask is he makes it competitive.

  18. Excellent start to the 2nd set my Muzz. Good attitude as well…. Djokovic is playing tooo freely. Muzz must continue to play at a high level to put some pressure…

  19. Well he has such a nice backhand slice but he is unable to take advantage because of his his mediocre forehand! He gets a neutral ball but cannot do much with forehand.

    Oh my God, how the hell did Djokovic hit that pass!

  20. Djokovic is standing in his backhand corner and absorbing backhand CC blows and keeping good length on backhands in response to slices. He is easily able to play run-around forehands too. His forehand corner is open! Muzz is not hitting there. He cannot win like this. Got to create some confusion.

    Awesome serving! Very crucial hold. May be he will get a chance or at least half a chance to break in this game now?

  21. Murray at least has won 4 games now so even if he loses, he is not amy worse than that FO2008 R.Up. I certainly hope he can do better evrn if not winning.

  22. Murray did not fade after losing serve. he kept it coming. Well done! I wish he can take it 6-4 here. Goodness! 60 minutes into the set and it is 5-4 …

  23. Very stupid play by Murray! I cant stand the way he plays! His legs are made of iron, very heavy. Not going to win a set not to mention the match.

  24. What a disappointment.. djokovic gifted him two points via double faults and he could not do anything…lost the next 3 points from there. 80 mins for 7-5 and it is against him… I bet he has lost the belief now.

    • Also Djokovic missed first serve at ad out so he would’ve had pressure with his fifth straight fault if Murray has just challenged the ball.

    • He’s not going to beat Novak again in big matches! He has too many flaws in his game but the biggest is his mentality.

      Why is he playing from so far behind the baseline? He is pitching his weakness against Novak’s strength when he should come forward and takes more risk. He’s so risk averse and I see he wont be winning any more slam.

      He is just not as good as Novak or Fed or Rafa when they are playing well. He better get a set here when old man Fed at 34 and ranked behind him still managed to squeeze out a set.

    • Sanju, it annoys me a lot but the question is, why shouldn’t there be such talk? He is untouchable at the moment. We were lucky last year that Stan stopped him at RG. If rafa does not find his best this clay season, he has a great chance to win RG. Wimbledon has become his fort too… I hope Raonic, Stan/Fed fall in his section. USO, well, he is again the logical pick.

      Something quite extraordinary needs to happen to stop him from winning the next 3. Gosh, he can even survive 100 unforced errors! That extraordinary can be some incredible performance from someone or it could be the man from Mallorca finding his best tennis.

      • I dont hold much hope for the man from Mallorca to beat this Novak even on clay.

        I think its more likely a Raonic beating Novak at Wimbledon or a Kygrios type of player beating him in the first two rounds at Wimbldon when he’s still finding his feet on grass.

        I guess a match vs Dolgo, then a four or five setter with Murray at the FO followed with a match with Stan may perhaps bring Novak down at the FO.

        The USO can be anyone’s guess as there’s Olympics this year.

        • yeah but what are the chances of having all these players lined up for him like that in a slam?! Extremely low!

          I agree that rafa’s chances are very low. For now, just hoping he can sweep the South American clay court swing… If loses there, then I don’t know what will I be saying..

        • OMG, Luckystar!!!!!!!!! Don’t belittle Rafa. Raonic nor Kyrgios have ever even made the final of a GS. Just because Rafa lost in the first round here means what? Kerber saved a MP in the 1st round and she is the champion, beating the seemingly unbeatable Serena.

          Vamos Rafa!

          • nadline, we can hope for Rafa to do better but right now, Raonic with his big serve can be a headache for anyone at Wimbledon. Raonic need not reach a slam final to meet Novak, he can meet him earlier than that and that’s the point – catch Novak in the early rounds to have a better chance of beating him. Anderson almost did it last year in the fourth round at Wimbledon.

  25. I really hope Murray’s ranking drops to no.3 or 4 so that he meets Novak at the SFs more often than in the F. I really cant stand a final like this; Fed or Stan vs Novak in a final is way more interesting than this.

  26. Novak just knows how to control the court; he knows exactly when to stay back and when to come forward, hardly makes a wrong shot selection. He’s truly impressive not only with the shot selection but also with the execution.

    Fedal’s time has past I’m afraid; Murray is not in Novak’s league; Stan is not getting young; Delpo is not coming back anytime soon. We have to hope the next gen guys can produce a star to counter this Novak, if not then….

    • really scary to think how much Djokovic can achieve… he moves like a 21 year old there and is getting better with age.

      He is a stronger player now overall than he was in 2011… whereas Murray has not progressed enough.

      He has even got a good shot at golden calendar slam…

  27. Once again, I was right! Nole in 3 it is! Milos would have done a better job! Murray did not deserve to be in the finals playing the way he did!
    At least Kerber made an interesting match. Men’s tennis is pathetic…

    • Women’s tennis is far worse. Serena has been dominating for ages now.

      But yes, Milos could have been more interesting to watch for the contrast of styles.

    • Come over to WTA, natashao. Seems maybe Serena is possibly getting close to loosening her grip on dominating. Don’t know how compelled Serena is to pass Steffi – probably more for that mark than for the joy-kill called a Calendar Slam. We’ll see.

      It’s exciting times in WTA. Fed Cup this week. Love Fed Cup.

      Congrats Nole!
      Deja Vu AO 2010. Andy will be happy to get home.
      ATP – the draw in Montpellier looks good. Marginal in Quito. Okay in Sofia.

      • ratcliff..Serena will touch Steffi I think..She will not come so close and just give it up I think. She may say she is not bothered about the record, but is clearly feeling the pressure. I think her team will lift her up and settle her.

    • wow, thanks, amy!
      It’s a muted happiness this time. He must feel committed to passing all GS counts. The media drives that monster – it’s sports dogma – the holy grail in tennis. I’ll say no more. I love Nole as a person, as an athlete, and as a tennis player.

    • Thanks and well played Novak! Highly impressive mental control and strategy, lucky hit the nail on the head when she said he knows exactly when to move back and forward, and switch gears. The second set was proof of it. COngrats to other Nole fans and commies to the Murray fans.

  28. for now , what can we say..Djokovic is untouchable. He deserves all this. He looks vulnerable early on but then he finds new gears in the big matches.

    He is passing rafa’s 14 slams soon it looks like… if rafa cannot do anything this clay court season, he will be eclipsed soon.

    Best wishes to Andy and Kim!

      • Amy,

        Congratulations to you on Novak winning another AO! I am happy for you and all Novak’s fans. I thought that Andy might get a set, but it did not happen.

        This is going to continue until someone else steps up to challenge him. I want it to be Rafa.

  29. That’s it for Novak, and Murray.

    I now think that Novak will overtake Rafa by end of this year in terms of slams, masters, not to mention the H2H (which Novak is already ahead now).

    If Novak manages the calendar slam this year then there’s no doubt he is even greater than Fed.

  30. So much negativity for Rafa Gosh from hardcore Rafans. Praising Novak to the skies (which he deserves) but almost having zero hopes from Rafa in the same breath. Good to know you all have zero expectations. Hopefully he will make you all happy. Rafa – Prove your supposed hardcore fans wrong.

    • what is the reaction about? there has been hope for rafa and that has been shattered a million times over the last year. If he wins the two tournaments in South America, hope will be back again. there is hope but it is empty at the moment because he is not winning anything.

      • VR, what do you think of Murray’s game today and his strategy vs Novak?

        I do feel Novak could still up his gears if there was a need. I do feel Murray playing this way had actually dragged Novak’s game down. Murray played with the right strategy I feel, its just the execution part that he’s having problems.

        Murray can never play like Fed or Rafa, so the best way for him to deal with Novak is to play like Simon but better. He’s not going to overpower Novak or outhit him, so he has to be patient like Simon and forces Novak to make errors.

        Murray’s FH is still his weakness, hitting so many of them into the net. I’m wondering is it due to his footwork (he hardly shifted his feet to get into positions to hit that FH) or is his FH still a powder puff shot now that Lendl is not there to pressure him? Fed or Rafa would’ve moved their legs to get into positions to hit their FHs unlike Murray.

        Murray did vary his pace using slices, and he did hit some flat shots but I feel he didnt hit with enough spins to hit over the higher part of the net and so netted some. I got to admire Simon for his ability to hit so flat and penetrating, barely over the net and not netting many of them. Its no wonder Fed and now Novak find him such a tough opponent to put away.

        Had Murray made fewer errors, he could have won set 2 or set 3 or even both, though its all possible that Novak would raise his level to prevent that too.

        • Well said but I suspect the latter that Nole still had another gear.

          Nole does pretty much everything better than muzz. He also knows he just needs to wait him out.

          As you say, it takes a lot more effort for muzz to move his heavy frame around the court than Nole.

          Nole has redefined the ideal body shape for tennis.

        • Luckystar,

          Yeah, you are right that he cannot overpower/outhit Nole from the baseline. Novak is just superior to him now. Whatever weaknesses he had ,he has ironed them out wonderfully well. He even handles backhand slices more efficiently now. Hardly gives short balls.

          I think Murray’s strategy was okay. It was within his capabilities at the moment. People here are saying Murray is not at his best, what could you englighten me what he would do significantly better if he were at the level you are talking about? Sorry but this is the best he has ever done with his second serve (suggested by higher speed throughout the tournament) and it still was under pressure literally every time he served.

          He can just make fewer errors but even that will not help him much. He will just perhaps win a set and then lose. I think, Murray has not progressed enough while Novak has quite a lot.

          Luckystar and others who have pointed out are right about his forehand. It just cannot penetrate through the wall that novak djokovic is.

          IMO, Murray MUST develope DTL shots. He can hit his backhand DTL sweetly but he often avoids it in high pressure moments and finds the net too much. I agree that he needs to generate more spin as well. He found the net so often with his forehand too and it was annoying! His forehand DTL is a totally useless shot .He just spreads the court with it and Djokovic gets there and thumps backhands.

          Today his winning shot was only his backhand CC. He hits it very flat and when on, he did lots of damage with it. hitting short CC forehands, pulling novak out of position and then stepping up to hit powerful backhands CC (something he does better than anyone) is a killer pattern of play. Similarly, hitting deep backhands DTL JUST to create some space for backhand CC is much needed.

          All in all, he must regain the killer instinct with this forehand. Just keep working on his 2nd serve, shots down the line , and on getting more power behind his forehand.

          Generating spin has not really been his style though. hence, his struggles on clay. He will profit from playing on faster surfaces but finding consistency is what he needs.

          Another pattern of play that annoys me is that sometimes he hit good backhand slices down the line, got neural forehands CC from Novak but could not do anything with his forehand DTL!! Give that slice to rafa and see how he uses his backhand DTL to back it up!

          lastly, yes, Murray can sometimes get stuck with his feet! I have even seen him yell something like cursing his feet lol. He cannot get into good enough position like Fedal can but even then, his forehand was below par. No way he can beat Novak with that forehand.

          • oops the post went too long!

            another thing is that Murray had developed a ridiculous running forehand CC but that shot has really gone off the boil lately. He was hitting it like crazy in 2013 !!

            Murray by nature is a player who is better off at using the pace given by opponents. He finds it tough to generate his own pace with his forehand. This is why grass suits his game the best.

            If Murray can improve a little, he will be much tougher for Novak at Wimby. It is much tougher to defend on grass so Novak will not be able to stay in rallies for that long. Plus, backhand slices from Murray become more effective on grass and more importantly, he can use his opponents’ pace and get away with not generating much spin because grass is the surface that offers that luxury the most.

  31. lucky – You change statements every 2nd day. Just few days back you were saying Rafa has hope, Rafa can do this and that and today its all gloom. Rafa has not played in last 2 days for you to change stand 🙂

    • Sanju, I didnt change my tune. Did I say Rafa is not going to win slam anymore??

      Its just that I dont place much hope of him beating this Novak. Novak may not be beatable at the slams this year but that doesnt mean he will remain as such forever. If Fed is not going to give up hope, you think Rafa or his fans should?

      • I HAVE HOPE IN RAFA. I REFUSE TO BELIEVE HE WILL JUST DISAPPEAR WITHOUT 1 LAST HURRAH. LIFE IS NEVER UNFAIR TO ANYONE WHO WORKS HARD AND HAS GOOD INTENT.

        YES I AM INTENTIONALLY WRITING THAT IN CAPS.

        • Sanju stop bothering me, I’m not interested in engaging in any argument with you.

          From now on, I’ll skip your comments so please skip mine.

          • I never wrote to you anyway..Did I address you? I wrote on this thread..If you took it on yourself, its your guilty feelings, don’t blame me 🙂

            If I said I have hope in Rafa, wonder how does it mean I am bothering you..Gosh you are seriously something 🙂

          • MY CAPS was not addressed to you. It was my feeling.

            Anyway peace. I have no intent to fight with anyone here. Let us not fight over this anymore 🙂

  32. What negativity? More being realistic. And what’s wrong if Novak is good enough to surpass Rafa? Real Rafa fans still support him whether Novak surpasses him or not. I’m just happy Rafa is the clay Goat and will remain so for a long long time.

    • If Novak has to surpass, he will. No one can stop it.

      What has to happen will happen.

      Right now on this thread, few real Rafans are definitely not showing any hope for Rafa, so I don’t understand what support are you all talking about? I never knew having no hope from him equates to showing support, atleast not in my dictionary.

      • Sanju, who are you to judge others? Please stop venting your frustrations on others.

        Supporting Rafa doesnt mean we cant face and accept reality. There are also some here who criticize him for not doing anything to help with his game, some get frustrated with him losing early at the slams. We all are entitled to our opinions and feelings, so stop telling others off!!

        • I am not judging neither am I venting any frustration. Watch your language please. I don’t want to talk disrespectfully to a lady, so please tone it down.

          What I am saying is logical. I understand we all love Rafa but if we talking about support, I do not understand how can every statement be negative if we support..haha..its crazy 🙂

  33. It is indeed creditworthy that the leaders at all 4 slams are from this era

    RG – Rafa – 7
    Wimby – Fed along with Sampras – 7
    AO – Novak – 6

    Isnt it great?

  34. Rafa had a commanding H2H over Novak, Fed, Murray for past 10 years, yet so much noise was not made about it like in the past 1 month when Novak got ahead in H2H.

    Seriously 1 month > 10 years of demonstrated evidence.

    It is not just the Rafans, even the media. Rafa has always gotten shorter end of stick (maybe as he was threat to Fed, so every effort was made to underplay him or diminish him).. Let us see what the pro Fed media supporters do now towards Novak given that he is coming charging at Fed.

  35. Yes Novak is raking up everything in sight now aided by his 2 principal rivals not being what they are, but frankly it is not his fault. He is making best of what is in front of him and deservedly so. He is still going on court and playing and winning it.

    • I agree with this. One simply cannot fault Novak for continuing to play well and win. That’s what he is supposed to do. If his rivals are not up to the task of beating him, then too bad.

  36. Congrats to all Novak fans..Well deserved..Your man is really on a tear and deserves his glory for being able to win the last point almost 95% of times in last 1 year.

  37. Novak can be vulnerable both Simon and Stan proved it. However his “main rivals” Fed, Andy and Rafa are not even near their best which makes it easier for Nole! It’s unbelievable how Murray never changes strategy that obviously gives no result…

    Novak totally deserves the win and I congratulate him and his lucky fans!

    I hope Rafa takes RG! The hard work must pay off!

    • Exactly my point natashao..same thing I wrote above. Glad you agree with me.

      I have hope in Rafa and refuse to be all negative about him. Hard work and good intent has to pay off. Life is fair.

      • Nope! Fed too old, can’t sustain a five-setter! Although I admire his will and his motivation, the age is what’s killing him against top form Nole!

        Murray gets distracted easily, I would almost say he does not seem dedicated enough to the cause…he is hyped for no reason.,.he could have lost to Milos…he has not yet convinced me that he deserves the attribute “main rival” to any of the top three (here including Rafa of course)
        Having said all of this, yes Rafa is the only hope when it comes to these “old rivalry”…

    • No, Novak is only vulnerable in the earlier rounds of slams. He wasn’t playing nearly as well as he did in the semis and final. Novak peaks when it matters most.

      Stan is the one player who may have a shot at Novak in the latter stages of slams. But Simon capitalized on a sub par Novak and also seemed determined to make a match of it. Novak came out in the quarterfinals playing a lot better against Nishi.

      However, Stan will have to be at his best to beat Novak in slams. He wasn’t good enough to get past a Raonic who was playing some of his best tennis. He will have to play better if he is going to take Novak down at RG or anywhere else.

      I would still like to see Rafa get himself together. Hopefully, the South American swing will tell us more about where he’s at.

      • Yup! Simon did not show Novak was vulnerable….he only showed Novak is vulnerable in early rounds! The novak who takes to the court in semis and finals is a different beast.

        Stan must catch fire and always fall in novak’s half hehe

        Rafa MUST MUST win these SA clay tournaments!

        • Novak making more than 40 UEs in the final does show his vulnerability…it’s only that Murray has no game plan against Novak thinking he could outhit him or wear him down…which never pays off against the Serb even in early rounds…

  38. Novak just came on Channel 7 Australia and said he has specific game plan for his 3 rivals – Nadal, Federer, Murray and he always tries to execute it and he is happy it is succeeding most times.

  39. Beating Murray 61 75 76 is good but it does not warrant the over-egging. And Nole did make 40 UEs in the process. Maybe Rafa should be left out of this. He was not on court today and all these bad vibes are getting to his fans.

    Thank you

    • He will equal Fed if he wins the USO this year, but I think of greater concern is the FO right now. In my mind, if Novak focuses on the process like last year instead of like all the preceding years (he talked way too much about his goals), then he puts himself in the best possible position to win it, barring someone playing amazing tennis in a big match like Stan in ’15, or Nadal in ’13.

  40. @ hawkeye 2:25 PM,
    No! If Murray loses on one of his favorite indoor events to an out of form Rafa than it means only one thing: inconsistency!
    Hope this helps!

    • No Rafa was near his best in that one match and Muzz wasn’t.

      One match. Inconsistent.

      Muzz playing poorly and Rafa playing near his best are the exceptions today.

      • Hahaha…what a strange way to define consistency: murray is consistent but suddenly inconsistent then consistent again…funny you are!

        • No. Check their respective rankings and results over last year compared to their respective best particularly not including vs Nole and get back to me.

          • No! Check how much Rafa achieved being sidelined with injuries whole his life and still ensuring consistency and check Murray’s! Unless your point is that Murray’s best is still being mediocre player way out of Rafa’s league! That much I can agree but then stop comparing him with Rafa because it really makes no sense..,

    • hahhaahhaaaahahahaha.. “Disclaimer: IMO”

      omg, hawk. I’m having one of those coughing attacks from laughing. that’s one of the best one’s yet, imo. disclaimer, imo.

      • It should be implied for all posts. At least that’s how any sane person should read them.

        Common sense is an oxymoron.

        In my opinion.

        • The problem is that, more often than not, people will post things that are subjective or speculation, or unsupportable, or only supportable by rigging, padding and contriving stats to prove a favored outcome – however – will state their favorite hypothetical conclusively, as fact, as if already proven. It can’t be helped, it’s human nature. To err is human, to forgive, divine.

          Please, too happy to go there in a serious way – enjoying the moment. It won’t last long.

          ps, I was wrong and you were right about the winning by one measly point! 😀

          • Ricky’s winning margin in our pool. You kept saying one point. I thought he’d win by way more than one point.

            hadn’t done the math. forgive me.

          • Ah, yes one point. But we have no idea who that is to be honest.

            As I said, what’s one point amongst excellent prognosticators.

            Besides, I picked a significant number of matches correctly. Tourneytopia points system is just skewed heavily towards the later rounds to keep everyone in the pool with a chance to come back.

          • And I agree about human nature.

            Every one does it to some degree.

            Except about rigging that is. I mean 13 non-clay slam draws in a row. Just. Please. Stop it. 🙂

          • rc,

            I really appreciated what you said in your post @3:50 pm. I see it quite a bit on these tennis forums, where some do use speculation and subjectivity and also selectively pick data to then support their point of view. Then there is the hypothetical argument, which is stated as fact all too often.

            I am not sure in what sense you meant it, but I feel that it happens all too frequently in discussions here and elsewhere.

            How did the bracket play out?

          • Thanks, Nny. Left you a message on the WTA thread.

            Yes, I meant little bit here and a lot elsewhere. But here is a happier place than elsewhere. Elsewhere has is more over-the-top. But there’s always hope. 😉

            The brackets are not updated, so entire standings aren’t available, but here’s the final pool standings for the top five:
            http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/TheGrandstand2016/pool/whatif.aspx

            Hopefully everyone enjoyed the pool. Thanks for joining. And thanks to Ricky setting it up!

  41. I checked online to see the score and it’s the same old, same old with Murray. I woke up at one point in the wee hours and turned on the tv. The score was 6-1 Novak in the first set and the second set was tight at that point, 5-4 or something. Then I went back to sleep with the feeling that Novak might well do it in 3 sets.

    I am disappointed that Murray could not make a real match of it. Yet again. So Fed tried and Murray tried. The #2 and #3 players. Stan didn’t make it through because he lost to Raonic. I have been reading the comments and catching up.

    As for Raonic making a better match of it, I don’t think so. He doesn’t have the physical strength to hang with Novak in a best of five set match. Novak would have had the answers, his ROS would have thrown off Raonic and his strength off both wings would have made a difference. I don’t think Raonic is quite there yet. So if anyone is relying on him to stop Novak, then I think they will be disappointed.

    I am happy for the Novak fans here. They should be happy for their guy. Many here wondered if Novak could possibly keep it up in the new year. Well, I would say this win and him beating both Fed and Murray along the way, indicates that he is more than prepared to keep it up.

    Amy, ratcliffe and all other Novak fans, congratulations to all of you!

    • nny, thanks for that. wish others were as generous and fair as you are….!
      i don’t think milos would have beaten nole..but it could have been a more entertaining match….

      • amy,

        I know that you are a Rafa fan and want him to come back and play the way we all know he can. I want the same thing, more than words can say. But for now, this is the reality. I have to accept it and say well done to Novak! He wants to win and always seems to work harder to come back stronger each year.

        There is no weak era, but some will try to make that argument. It’s one way that they will try to deal with how Novak is dominating right now. It’s just that for now Novak has distanced himself from his rivals.

        Novak would have beaten Raonic in fairly straightforward fashion. We saw how Raonic got injured in that long five setter with Andy. He tends to be injury prone, like Nishi. That could hurt his chances of trying to win a slam. But I appreciate the effort and hard work he’s put in to try to have a shot at winning a slam.

        I am really disappointed with Andy. Maybe I am being kind of unfair. But I keep hoping that he can at least get a set off Novak. I guess it’s not happening these days.

      • ^^exactly! That was meant by saying Milis would have done better, but to beat Nole, no way! Milos also did not stand a chance!

      • yup, Milos could only have challenged him but beating him is something else.

        Right now, can only just congratulate Novak and his fans, and wait for Buenos Aires to begin .

        Rafa’s hardwork in the off season and the improvement in his feeling on court in terms of not feeling nerves like he did in most of 2015, will pay off. He will be fighting for the slams soon

  42. I don’t know what to make of this match. Judging purely at the result, Novak looks unbeatable, and better than ever. Winning in straights while not playing his best.

    On the other hand, I thought Murray executed his game plan pretty well, and outplayed Novak for a good portion of the match (starting from 2nd set). Don’t know about you guys… I was still pretty tense even after Novak took a 2 set lead. Andy dictated points, made Novak play on his heels. What killed him were the very untimely UEs. He just doesn’t seem to be clutch at the most crucial points.

    Anyways, big congrats to Nole and all his fans. It’s crazy he’s made every finals for a full calendar year (’15 AO). One step closer to #18!

    • Yes, I hadn’t thought about that. Novak has made every slam final for a full calendar year! Wow! I guess that’s consistency! 🙂

        • Murray has made quarterfinals or better in ww of his last 24 slams and made semis or better in 7 of eight masters played last year, by far his best yearly result in Masters. That’s called consistency! 🙂

          • Murray has by far the most rankings points he ever did. About 1500 more than either of the two years he won slams.

            Now that’s consistency.

          • In 2012 when Murray won US Open he ended the year with 8000 points.

            In 2013 when Murray won Wimbledon he ended the year with 5790 points.

            Today, Andy has 8945 rankings points, the most he’s ever had.

          • One thing about Murray, he has never had > or = 10,000 in ranking points at any one time even when he was ranked as high as no.2

            Rafa, Fed and Novak when ranked as no.2 could still have 10,000 or more ranking points during the season or at end of season. Rafa in 2007 had finished the season with 10,000 points or more if we adjust the points using current ranking points system. Fed too in 2012 and Novak in 2013.

            Murray still has some way to go to get to 10,000 points.

          • Yes, it’s called consistency for the mediocre player who does not aim at winning more slams! Ask Stan how it’s done! They have equal number of slams and Stan is definitely not consistent player!
            #doublestandards

          • Let’s compare and review…

            Murray has made quarterfinals or better in 19 of his last 20 slams and made semis or better in 7 of eight masters played last year, by far his best yearly result in Masters. That’s called consistency

            Stan is 9 of 20 QF or better in slams and 2 of 9 semis or better in Masters.

            Here to help.

          • @ 5:42 PM,

            No! I guess we observe it differently… IMO a player who has won GSs is consistent if he continues wining one or even losing in the finals. Murray hardly did anything after wining Wimby 2013 and his time is running up…

            The reason Andy is able to do well, i.e., reach semis or quarters (now that’s called lowering standards!) is WEAK ERA(and again we go back to what I was saying at the beginning of this whole argument) and you then stating that this Murray can beat anyone…Obviously NOT because both Rafa and Stan (who is inconsistent player BTW) beat him at his bellowed WTF!

            So, if by consistency you mean reaching semis and quarters in the tournaments that is your opinion! I think not! Murray may also disagree with you. I think his goal is at wining more not only playing quarters and semis…in that regard, I recall Andy has been picked more than once to win GS and failed so many times… I think that’s pretty disappointing for a “consistent” player…

            I rest my case here!

          • Nah you tried to lump Murray and Fed in with Rafa saying earlier that all three were far from their best.

            Murray’s best is far from Rafa’s best or Nole’s best.

            So yes we do disagree because Murray’s game simply has not regressed IMO and Fed is almost as good, if not as good as always. He is in no way far from his best.

            And I rest my case here! (assuming you stick to your word.)

            #AgreeToDisagree

  43. One by one Novak is going to match if not break Fed’s records.

    He has matched Fed’s 17 consecutive finals and if he makes the Dubai final, he will surpass Fed’s and matches Lendl’s 18 in a row.

    He has 5 WTF titles, only one short of Fed’s. He’s now at 27 slam QF in a row, 9 more to go and 10 to surpass Fed. He’s some 180+ weeks at no.1, if he holds on to the no.1 ranking till end of the year, he will be 230 weeks at no.1 so another one and a half years or so from there he’ll catch up with Fed.

    He still has 6 slams to go to match Fed’s 17. He already has more Masters titles; has the DC and has a good chance of winning the Olympics this year. He still has chances to win a FO to complete his career slam. Even better, he has chance of winning four slams in a row.

    He will match Fed’s 9 HC slams if he wins the USO this year, if not then the AO next year; should he win the AO next year, he’ll be holding 7 AO titles just like Fed holding 7 Wimbledon titles, incredible!

    There are still so many things Novak could look to accomplish, its no wonder he’s still so motivated.

    Rafa please come back and sets more records of your own that may never he broken, at least for a long long time! Vamos Rafa!

      • VR, Rafa has his 10 years in a row of winning both a Slam and a Masters that may never be matched for a long long time.

        He has his 9 FOs, dominance on clay for almost a decade, 81 match winning streak on clay; one more clay title and he will have the most clay titles in the open era or even in history so far.

        His 8 in a row at MC, a Masters, is something hard to match; Novak may do his at Beijing (currently at 6 in a row) but that’s not a Masters.

        If Rafa wins the FO again, he will be the first in the Open era to win a tournament, or a slam to be exact, 10 times!

        I think if Rafa carries on winning the clay events, his records on clay may stand for a long long time!

  44. Genuine Rafa fans are hurting; fake Rafa fans are jumping on the Nole bandwagon.

    #camp followers
    #defecting to rival camp
    #treason

    • whenever rafa loses and Djokovic wins, Nadline10 deals with that by trashing other rafa fans. It is a pity this has become a hobby. LOL

      You will get over it…try to keep it to yourself. Rafa will soon be out playing well on clay.

      #SelfrighteousFansAreEverywhere

      • vr, she’s not a rafa fan. she’s a fan of using rafa as a pretext to trash other players and other people.
        no-one who really cared about him would exploit his name and reputation in that way which is purely for their own self-interest.

        • lol…I know amy 🙂 Rafa himself is singing praises for Novak.What he said about his level after Doha was really something. Nadline10 defended that by saying rafa was just being honest. Now may I ask, what are we doing here? LOL LOL… just being honest and accepting Novak’s too damn good and rafa has loadss of work to do (which he is doing). Same as rafa

          #DoubleStandardsAreEverywhere

          But, some thins don’t change. But What can we do? The least we can do is use the hashtag #SelfrighteousFansAreEverywhere. hahah

          • AT 5:21 PM,
            — Rafa himself is singing praises for Novak.—
            ===
            .
            The ATP players are obliged to be polite towards each other.
            The ATP Rulebook, page 178:
            ¤¤ …it is an obligation for ATP players and Related Persons, to refrain from engaging in conduct contrary to the integrity of the game of tennis.
            a) Conduct contrary to the integrity of the game shall include, but not be limited to, publicized comments that unreasonably attack or disparage any person or group of people, a tournament, sponsor, player, official or the ATP. …. ¤¤
            .
            Fans are under no obligation to praise anyone.

        • amy,

          Thank you for saying this! I never thought that I would see the day where someone would actually come on a tennis site and call other posters “traitors”!

          It’s pathetic for anyone to equate tennis matches with somehow being disloyal. The word “traitor” should be reserved for those who betray their country!

          If a person cannot deal with another player other than their favorite winning, except by throwing around cheap shots and insults and hyperbole, then someone needs a reality check!

  45. On another note, congrats to Ricky for getting so many new posters here! It is great to see fans of other players share their views here.

    The Grandstand is a big hit now, well done 😉 Keep it up!

  46. Yes, it’s great to see fans of other players here joining in the discussion. I sincerely hope that they will stay and continue to post their thoughts and support their favorites!

    It’s been great to share some quality tennis discussions with all of them!

  47. 🙁 SO Rafa did finally get the wooden spoon Nadal lost to Verdasco lost to Sela lost to Kuznetsov lost to Monfils lost to Raonic lost to Murray lost to Djokovic

  48. dedicated to nadline.

    do you know why novak is so successful and nadal is not? novak is not afraid to show his biological passport.

  49. This oxygen therapy is not illegal according to Wada.
    It can’t be too wonderful if Mike Bryan and bethany sands are using it and not winning anything

  50. I would hope that we can finally clear up any insinuations about hyperbaric oxygen therapy. I mentioned previously that I went to a physical therapy facility that has it and was told that professional athletes use it frequently.

    It’s been clarified here already that it’s legal. I am not sure why it should be brought up in connection with Novak again.

    • It’s legal in the USA and Australia. Not in Europe. And yes, athletes do use it because it hasn’t been banned yet. But there is a cloud over whether it should be used in sports. This is because it supplements high altitude physical training and speeds or rather facilitates natural recovery in a somewhat simulated manner. If it is indeed not a problem I see no harm in the ATP making this facility available to players ranked lower. Then it is their call if the treatment suits them. But it’ll level the playing field.

  51. it’s banned in Europe…I wonder if that’s the reason why Novak can’t win RG where the matches are most demanding physically…it seems he obviously got used to it too much and runs into problems if it’s not available…interesting…

  52. @ augusta 6:40 PM,

    Stan Wawrinka beat “unbeatable” Nole in the RG? How was that possible when the guy was able to win all other GSs? Mainly because the RG matches are taxing on Novak’s body and unfortunately the famous egg is forbidden in Europe…

    When Nole was on the run in 2011 beating Rafa and doing huge damage to Rafa’s confidence he still lost in the semis to whom???- Maestro himself not Rafa…When Rafa beat Nole in the RG 2014 Nole’s fans were saying that it was due to Nole’s health issues (throwing up, feeling dizzy, being weak, etc.)…blablabla..

    So I am more inclined to think that Novak may never be able to win it because he is so dependent on his precious egg for recovery that he obviously runs into problems when it’s not at his disposal…

    Hope Rafa takes a note…it’s enough for Rafa to take him to five sets…

1 Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Murray - Tennis LineTennis Line

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Skip to toolbar