Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

Medvedev Djokovic
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Only one Big 3 member has advanced to the Australian Open final, but Sunday features nothing less than an absolute blockbuster of a matchup. It’s Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

Ricky (The Grandstand)
: Djokovic will be confident because of the past. He is an eight-time Australian Open champion and is 8-0 lifetime in finals at this event. Medvedev will be confident because of the present. He is on a 20-match winning streak and is a hard-to-believe 12-0 in his last 12 matches against top-10 opponents. As tough as it is to pick against Djokovic in Melbourne, I’m leaning toward the present in this one. Medvedev has quite simply been the best player on the planet dating back to last fall and nothing has changed this fortnight. The world No. 4 has won five of his six matches in straight sets, including against eighth-ranked Andrey Rublev and sixth-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. Djokovic, who at times was less than 100 percent physically, has required five sets once (vs. Taylor Fritz) and four sets on three other occasions. And it’s not as if the past entirely favors the world No. 1. He is a less than dominant 4-3 in the head-to-head series and has lost three of his last four matches against Medvedev. My pre-tournament final pick was Medvedev over Djokovic and nothing we have seen so far gives any reason to waffle. Medvedev in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-4.

Cheryl (The Grandstand): These were the two players I picked for the final from the start of the tournament. It’s tempting to just assume that Djokovic is a slam dunk for his ninth Oz title, but there isn’t going to be anything simple about this match. First, the intimidation factor isn’t there for Djokovic; Medvedev isn’t afraid of him in the least. In fact, the last time they met (at the Nitto ATP Finals), Medvedev dismantled the Serb. Also, although Medvedev hasn’t won a slam title yet, he’s been in a final (U.S. Open 2019) and he wasn’t scared there against Rafael Nadal, either. So this is going to come down to straight form, and surprisingly that favors the Russian. Djokovic has mostly been good enough this fortnight–not actually good. Medvedev, on the other hand, was sizzling against Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. At present, he looks like a very long-tentacled octopus wielding at least six racquets. He seems to be everywhere all at once. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): All of the sudden, a Djokovic-Medvedev matchup could very well be considered the most intriguing H2H on the ATP Tour. In a bit of a surprise, it is Medvedev that has won three of the last four meetings. This run includes the 2019 Cincinnati Masters semifinals, in which the Russian threw down the hammer and concurrently announced that his brand of tennis was consistently capable of defeating Djokovic–and defeating all others near the pinnacle of the ATP rankings. However, this match will take place Down Under where Djokovic is king. Despite concerns that he may not have been able to continue during this fortnight, the Serb always has answers and paths to victory, especially serving his way out of jams. No matter what Medvedev throws at Djokovic in Melbourne, the world No. 1 will send a return coming back with interest. Medvedev will eventually claim his first major and most likely more to follow, but not just yet. Djokovic wins his ninth Australian Open and “La Decima” will once again make its way into tennis conversations leading into the 2022 AO. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 5-7, 6-4.

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71 Comments on Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

  1. Djoko in 4. He’s just too good in an Australian open final. Never lost one. Medvedev is a mini djokovic. Everything he does, djokovic does better. Djoko always brings his A game in an Australian open final. If djokovic’s return game is in full flow, he’ll be more difficult to beat. Medvedev’s 5 sets match in AO that he won in 5 sets tells me he can have lapses in concentration even though he’s playing great. Djokovic will capitalize on that if med falters and he’ll be very unforgiving. If Djoko plays the way he did in AO19 final or even better, he’ll win and I think he will. Med will win slams in the future but not this one right now.

      • 4 or 5 MTO’s. One for each set and probably 2 for the last set before he wins and that’s if he wins in 4. If it goes 5, there’ll be several more 😁

        • MTO’s will have no impact in this match, either will yelling midpoint during defensive play to put off his opponent. Medvdev is Russian and not susceptible like Murray or Federer. If Djokovic tries any of that Medvedev will punish him.

  2. I read Nole’s statements to the Serbian press…very confident and very optimistic, no signs of injury…his words: ” I am very confident, I feel great, I am healthy and playing well, If he wants this he will have to work hard for it, These youngsters want to dethrone us but it hasn’t worked so far, has it”…and so on…so Novak is either playing mind games with Med or he is really quite sure he is going to win…
    I do think Med has chances but not in 5…I think he needs to win in 4 if Nole let’s him…

    I wish Med wining this title, but…he will have to be mentally strong as ever. Also, if he lets Novak drive him into long rallies he stands no chance…

    • I think the same statements were made before french too if not by novak but by Goran. No chance in hell for rafa was told I guess..novak too seemed very confident for that one. We know how that ended…ppl can say anything

      • Hi! I had Nole and Rafa going out in the semis. Well…50% right!
        I think it’s easier to pick not having a dog in the fight, TBH. I always felt so disloyal if I picked against Andy!

  3. Was just reading espn picks. Cahill writes, and I quote:
    “Novak goes into any tournament knowing his tennis is better than anyone else’s, especially… in Australia”
    Excuse me but just f-off! Yes he is the player to beat in Australia but Rafa has 4 USOs to 3 for Nole ( and Rafa has beaten Nole twice in the final there) and he has 13 titles at RG. This kind of over hyping of Novak is very common and it really gets on my nerves.
    It’s extremely disrespectful to both Rafa and Fed.

    • Cahill’s brand of commentary is superficial so wouldn’t worry too much about what he says. He’s more worried about trying to sound good and hyping it up rather than being factually correct.

    • Tear Djerker has been the best player overall for much of the last decade and certainly in Oz. But when Cahill coaches Halep he doesn’t try to get her to be like Djerker. He wants her to emulate Rafa. They watch his practices, his matches and even his pressers. 🙂 I know because he’s said so, more than once.

        • Another Cahill quote on Rafa: (this is from the 2018 USO qf with Thiem, a very, very close 5 setter – during a lull the commies were debating a silly presser question when Rafa was asked, aside from his arms and legs, which body part was most important. Rafa picked core strength) Darren said “wonderful tennis physique, but I’d take his brain and his heart”.

      • Nothing against Darren, he’s probably a good guy, he just doesn’t click me with for some reason. I was a big fan of Stolle, Newcombe and Trabert and they set a pretty high benchmark.

        I just noticed Tony Trabert passed away this month also. Great guy. May he rest in peace.

  4. i see nadal tards are already sh1t*ing their pants from the prospect of Nole getting his 18th slam. what a sad bunch of pathetic characters, bringing up MTOs, knowing that the spanish faker is one of the biggest in sport.

    #EufemianoFuntes

    • Rafa is so overrated. Just watch the match against Stefanos. What kind of “legend” blows a 2-0 set lead?

      Rafa will win one more Slam at most, probably at RG this year. By the end of it, Roger and Novak are on a different tier than Rafa.

      • You mean like Fed did against Tsonga at wimby 2010?
        Or when Fed lost to Nole at USO 2011?
        Both Fed and Nole have had disastrous losses and blown matches they should have won..

        • In my bracket i picked Meddy…err..that was b4 Thiem chickened out(hehe..sorry M!)..i thought,there is no way Novak will survive Zverev,Thiem & Medvedev..but now,i think Novak is slightly the favourite(only slightly) …but Meddy has a big chance to win it too!..

          But…despite his confidence..i do think Novak is a bit ‘afraid’ of Daniil…He’s a little bit fragile against young guns…Everyone knows that..Hope Daniil don’t repeat a mistake by Thiem last year..

          I also very curious to see how Novak will behave this afternoon..if he will suffer again a so called a ‘lack of energy’ like last year or the infamous 2015 against Andy?..(Patrick Mouratoglou words: ‘he likes to pretend he’s giving up’!) esp if he is 1 @ 2 sets behind…let’s see!

          I also wondering why it always happened at AO?and not at other slams?🤔🤷‍♀️

          • Hi MA! Good question. Tear Djerker behaved impeccably at RG this year when Rafa hit him off the court. Maybe it’s the close matches that bring out the worst in him? He usually does behave well vs Rafa and Fed, come to think of it, barring the occasional racket smash, of course.

          • Cheeky! 😉 Naughty Nick did for Darling Dom 🙁 I also think DD has an injury, which of course he is keeping schum about.
            Most of us on challenge went for Med, I think. We shall see, hope it’s a good one!

  5. Hey Ramara!…Yeah!…i noticed about his good behaviour against Rafa & Fed too!…And i think u were right too about the close matches bring the worst in him…

    But the way he’s behaved is very unGOAT!…considering his GOAT status & calibre…i respected his tennis very much actually..but it’s a shame!

  6. Medvedev is willing to take the top players head-on at their own mind games. Medevdev is quite happy with the underdog tag which is smart.

  7. Courier refers to Djokovic on a first name basis and Medvedev by 2nd name. Another superficial commentator. He brings a good feel to the AO in general but falls victim to superficiality like the best of them.

  8. Wow, this AO final almost as uncompetitive as the FO final last year!

    Djoko as expected brought his best to the final, despite the struggles in the early rounds. I would expect Medvedev to be as competitive as Thiem last year, but I guess he playing similar style to Djoko won’t do him any favour, especially without a great ROS like that of Djoko’s.

    Thiem was probably more an attacking Stan like player unlike Medvedev. So no. 18 for Djoko, incredible to think the both Rafa and Djoko are chasing after Fed’s records and breaking them one by one (though Fed’s consecutive slam SF and QF streaks are unlikely to be broken by Djoko or Rafa).

    So, Rafa gets to keep his no.2 ranking.

  9. Congrats to Novak! Another incredible performance to add to his AO record. However, what was shaping up to be a great match unfortunately never materialized, and that had more to do with Medvedev under-performing than Djokovic, who was predictably great. But this should have been a lot closer.

  10. As expected, djokovic wins in straight sets playing fantastic tennis which Medvedev had no answers. And his return game was on fire as usual. Medvedev stood no chance.

    Congrats to Nole and his fans. He’s the king of Australia indeed. Atleast this will put the narrative that the “big 3 (or big 2) are finished, changing of the guard etc.” to rest for a while. Nole at 33/34 was the younger and fitter player and blew Medvedev away.

    Congrats on your 18th slam and ofcourse next year he will go for la Decima. You have to appreciate his greatness, on hardcourts when he’s in full flow, he’s fantastic and that return game when it’s on fire is just incredible.

  11. Cheryl, I’d simply retire from predicting matches if I were you. An advice: stay away from predictions in case you HATE a player. Cheers!

  12. Seems like to want these current batch of youngsters to beat a big three in a slam final is too much to ask for. Thiem couldn’t beat Djoko at AO and Rafa at FO finals and now Medvedev couldn’t do it either (lost his two slam finals to Rafa and Djoko).

    Like what Djoko mentioned earlier, the big three would want to hold on to their places (esp at the slams) for a while more; the youngsters have to wait!

    • I couldn’t watch. But I kinda had a feeling this morning this night happen as I suddenly remembered how easily Thiem was beating Med at the Atp final then squandered those easy points to break. I really thought Dom lost that match rather than Med won it.
      Said afterwards that beating the big 3 in slams was a whole different ball game and I would believe it when I actually saw it.
      Should have stuck to that knowledge!!
      Many congrats to Nole fans especially Elizabeth. Your boy done good! 😀😀

  13. So now Djoko has the most HC slams – 12 (9 AOs and 3 USOs), one more than Fed’s 11. Djoko is best on HCs with 12, Fed best on grass with 8, and Rafa best on clay with 13.

    Djoko 12 HCs; 5 Grass; 1 Clay.
    Fed 11 HCs, 8 Grass; 1 Clay.
    Rafa 13 Clay, 5 HCs, 2 Grass.

    It seems that Fed and Djoko are quite similar in their abilities on the various surfaces whilst Rafa stands out alone on clay.

  14. The Goat is on to 18 now! Masterclass today, absolute perfection. As always overcoming adversity like a beast mid tournament. Soon to surpass two other legends 😉

    • You kind I find it interesting that Novak fans get so in your face when their guy wins. The young guys can’t beat the top three in slam finals. Thiem got his first slam because he played Zverev and not one of the top three. It’s just the reality right now.

      As for Novak supposedly passing Fed and Rafa, I would not get carried away with that. Rafa is not going anywhere!

  15. did not see the match, but the score says it all…Congrats to Nole’s fans…this one was really meant to be for Novak…Dominik taken out early… a qualifier in the semis… the stars aligned for him…I knew Med was not mentally strong enough to resist Nole…and knowing that Novak always saves the best for the finals, this was kind of expected…

    Great achievement for Novak! Congratulations!!

    • He somehow does not like Federer…always disses him..but somehow is ok abt rafa n appreciates him..I wonder if it’s the internal team feeling that he’s okay

      So he’s giving rafa max 2 slams ..interesting but I think he’s right .even as rafa fan ,I feel he has max 2 more

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