Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

Only one Big 3 member has advanced to the Australian Open final, but Sunday features nothing less than an absolute blockbuster of a matchup. It’s Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

Ricky (The Grandstand): Djokovic will be confident because of the past. He is an eight-time Australian Open champion and is 8-0 lifetime in finals at this event. Medvedev will be confident because of the present. He is on a 20-match winning streak and is a hard-to-believe 12-0 in his last 12 matches against top-10 opponents. As tough as it is to pick against Djokovic in Melbourne, I’m leaning toward the present in this one. Medvedev has quite simply been the best player on the planet dating back to last fall and nothing has changed this fortnight. The world No. 4 has won five of his six matches in straight sets, including against eighth-ranked Andrey Rublev and sixth-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. Djokovic, who at times was less than 100 percent physically, has required five sets once (vs. Taylor Fritz) and four sets on three other occasions. And it’s not as if the past entirely favors the world No. 1. He is a less than dominant 4-3 in the head-to-head series and has lost three of his last four matches against Medvedev. My pre-tournament final pick was Medvedev over Djokovic and nothing we have seen so far gives any reason to waffle. Medvedev in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-4.

Cheryl (The Grandstand): These were the two players I picked for the final from the start of the tournament. It’s tempting to just assume that Djokovic is a slam dunk for his ninth Oz title, but there isn’t going to be anything simple about this match. First, the intimidation factor isn’t there for Djokovic; Medvedev isn’t afraid of him in the least. In fact, the last time they met (at the Nitto ATP Finals), Medvedev dismantled the Serb. Also, although Medvedev hasn’t won a slam title yet, he’s been in a final (U.S. Open 2019) and he wasn’t scared there against Rafael Nadal, either. So this is going to come down to straight form, and surprisingly that favors the Russian. Djokovic has mostly been good enough this fortnight–not actually good. Medvedev, on the other hand, was sizzling against Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. At present, he looks like a very long-tentacled octopus wielding at least six racquets. He seems to be everywhere all at once. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): All of the sudden, a Djokovic-Medvedev matchup could very well be considered the most intriguing H2H on the ATP Tour. In a bit of a surprise, it is Medvedev that has won three of the last four meetings. This run includes the 2019 Cincinnati Masters semifinals, in which the Russian threw down the hammer and concurrently announced that his brand of tennis was consistently capable of defeating Djokovic–and defeating all others near the pinnacle of the ATP rankings. However, this match will take place Down Under where Djokovic is king. Despite concerns that he may not have been able to continue during this fortnight, the Serb always has answers and paths to victory, especially serving his way out of jams. No matter what Medvedev throws at Djokovic in Melbourne, the world No. 1 will send a return coming back with interest. Medvedev will eventually claim his first major and most likely more to follow, but not just yet. Djokovic wins his ninth Australian Open and “La Decima” will once again make its way into tennis conversations leading into the 2022 AO. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 5-7, 6-4.