Daily Grand Slam expert picks are back for Day 1 of the Australian Open, when Rafael Nadal takes the court against James Duckworth. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray preview four of Monday’s matchups and make their predictions.
(WC) James Duckworth vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal probably isn’t 100 percent, but at the same time he could probably take care of Duckworth at 50 percent. The veteran Aussie has dealt with plenty of his own physical problems and he disappeared from the circuit for several seasons until returning last summer. His results haven’t been terrible, but nothing suggests he can challenge the world No. 2. Look for Nadal to show signs of rust early, get hot midway through the match, and then mess a round a bit while trying to serve it out in the third. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 6-0, 7-5.
Cheryl: Per usual, Nadal doesn’t have a warm-up event coming into the Australian Open, thus his form and the extent of his recovery are largely unknown. Still, Duckworth is an Aussie wildcard ranked 238th in the world who managed to lose to a severely hobbled Andy Murray in Brisbane a couple weeks ago. This is about as favorable an opener as Nadal could have hoped for. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 6-2, 6-1.
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Andreas Seppi vs. (31) Steve Johnson
Ricky: There is absolutely no reason why Seppi should be trailing this head-to-head matchup 3-0. The veteran Italian likes to use opponents’ pace against them and he is also a smart enough player to exploit Johnson’s shaky backhand. Seppi is coming off a runner-up performance in Sydney and has always played well during the Australian summer. Johnson, on the other hand, has heat issues every now and then. Seppi in 5: 6-3, 7-6(5), 4-6, 4-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: This could actually be a good match. Johnson owns a 3-0 head-to-head record over Seppi, but the Italian heads into Melbourne on the heels of a trip to Sydney final and is probably feeling more confident than usual. Of course, there is also the matter of fatigue. Seppi will have had little rest going into the AO. Johnson in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 6-2.
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Cameron Norrie vs. Taylor Fritz:
Ricky: They just faced each other in Auckland, where Norrie got the job done 7-6(3), 6-3 on his way to the title match. There is really no reason to expect anything different: another somewhat competitive contest with an edge going to the Brit. Fritz may have more long-term upside, but Norrie is the more solid, consistent player at the moment. Norrie in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(6).
Cheryl: Norrie and Fritz met just a couple of days ago. It’s not good news for Fritz that Norrie beat him in straight sets in Auckland, nor that Norrie ended up making it to the final before falling to Tennys Sandgren. Fritz might benefit from a few extra days’ rest, but Norrie has the momentum. Norrie in 5: 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.
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Andrey Rublev vs. Mackenzie McDonald
Ricky: It won’t get much publicity, but this should be one of the most entertaining contests of the entire first round. Separated by just five spots in the rankings, Rublev and McDonald are two grinders (Rublev probably shouldn’t be, but right now that’s what he is) who will leave absolutely everything out on the court for however long it takes. The Russian’s slight edge in experience will be the difference in the Aussie Open’s first-ever fifth-set super-tiebreaker. Rublev in 5: 3-6, 6-2, 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(10-7).
Cheryl: Rublev is another of a crop of talented young players from Russia. He’s ranked 84th in the world, but he’s more dangerous than his ranking would suggest–as he showed when he made it to the semifinals of the Next Gen ATP finals in November. McDonald comes from the corresponding talented crop of young Americans. He’s ranked 79th in the world, though his upside seems to be a bit more limited. Rublev in 4: 7-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.
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WWW?
Nadal, Sseppi, Rublev, Norrie
Nadal in 3, Seppi in 4, Norrie in 4, Mackie in 5
Vamos Rafa!!!
Vamos Rafa!
Keep calm, stay focused, remain confident, be strong and enjoy the game, Rafa!
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I could see Seppi pulling his usual routine here and upsetting Anderson in the 3rd round
I bet he gets his first win over Johnson today
I had Johnson but changed my mind to Seppi when I looked at his record down under.
Plus Stevie was terrible last week .
Seppi in four ,Nadal in three, Norrie in five,Rublev in five
I hope Seppi doesn’t beat Anderson, he’s one of my bold picks (finalist)
Just read that Zverev says he’s fine to play.So I have him in the quarterfinals
Vamos Rafa! ✌
Good job, Rafa! Dackworth obviously had nothing to lose, Rafa loosened up a bit too soon and when serving for the match, but restored the order soon enough to avoid playing long match in the heat.
On one hand Rafa needs to avoid playing long matches but he also needs some competitive match play to feel the court better and get ready for later stages.
Overall we saw some great shots from Rafa, good movement and nice serving! Very encouraging!
Vamos Champ!
Lol, just looked at Ricky’s predicted match score for Nadal-Duckworth. Darn close, giving Rafa a bit too much credit in the 2nd, but spot on otherwise, so grats to Ricky! 🙂
thank you!
Am I the only one that thought the Nadal match was VERY strange? I mean, I know Duckie likes to serve/volley, but there was practically no baseline tennis. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Nadal take care of business in that particular fashion before.
McEnroe said he didn’t see any difference in the service motion, and that might be so, but from that limited data set, Nadal almost looks like a different player. Color me intrigued.
Also, as much as it pains me to do so, I too must tip my hat to a freakishly accurate prediction by Ricky. When he served for the match at 5-3, I thought, “Wow. My prediction was really close!” And then when he lost serve, I thought, “oh, crap. now Ricky’s gonna be right.” hahahahahahahaha
In his post-match interview (on-court) Rafa blamed Ducky for the lack of baseline play, said Ducky was “determined not to hit 2 shots from the baseline.” Can’t say I blame him – there still aren’t a lot of players around that want to rally with Rafa.
I certainly noticed that, Ramara, and it was at least worth a shot. But even on Nadal’s serve, there weren’t any.. I just thought it was intriguing. 🙂
Rafa had handled S&V players before – Mischa Zverev; Llodra, Kendrick, Herbert for examples.
It’s Rafa’s first real match testing out his serve, his first serve was ok but it seemed his ball toss was lower hence it caught the net a few times. His second serve needs more work though, it’s like it has reverted to pre 2017 level and Duckworth managed to return a few of them for winners.
Its Rafa’s first match in a while and against a S&V guy, certainly not that simple and Rafa has done well winning in straight sets.
The courts are quick here; Kei struggled against a big serving young guy in his R1 match; Isner lost to a fellow big serving American, so big servers have advantage on these AO courts.