Expert picks continue with Day 2 of the Australian Open, where a couple of blockbuster matchups headline the schedule. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron preview the action and make their predictions.
Nick Kyrgios vs. (16) Milos Raonic
Ricky: Count Kyrgios among the dangerous floaters at the Australian Open–and there are a lot. In fact, he is the most dangerous of all. That’s doesn’t automatically spell doom for Raonic, as there is always a chance that the disinterested Kyrgios shows up and turns in another disappointing performance. But if the good Kyrgios is on display, this could be a great one. Both players have been mediocre of late and the head-to-head series is all tied up at 3-3, so this is a tough one to predict–just like basically any Kyrgios match. But with home-court advantage and with expectations (and pressure) lower than usual, the Aussie should be able dig deep enough to pull out a close one. Kyrgios in 5: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-4.
Pete: Australia and the world are treated to a heavyweight battle in the opening round of the Happy Slam with Kyrgios and Raonic. Despite the fact that they have met six times, only one match has taken place on a hard court and they have not met at all in 30 months. The series is squared at three wins apiece, with Kyrgios winning the lone hard-court match three years ago in Miami. Raonic was defeated by each member of the Big Four in Australia during a five year stretch from 2013-2017. Kyrgios has won 11 matches in five appearances in Melbourne, with the average ranking of No. 59 for these opponents (highest is 15th and lowest 98th). That’s an important fact, as Kyrgios does win matches that he is expected to win but is not able to win against significantly better players on the ATP Tour at his home slam. The Aussie crushed 44 aces in a three-setter in Brisbane a couple of weeks ago, while Raonic has averaged nearly 10 aces a set in his three matches this year. With both players healthy, we should be treated to more fireworks. Kyrgios makes it four wins in five matches against the Canadian. Kyrgios in 4: 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(9).
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Stan Wawrinka vs. Ernests Gulbis
Ricky: This is a wild section of the bracket, with the Wawrinka-Gulbis winner to meet the Raonic-Kyrgios winner. Drawing Gulbis is never ideal because even at this point in his career he still has the potential to be one of the best players on tour on any given day. But those occasions are few and fare between–and they are especially rare in Australia. Wawrinka, on the other hand, has enjoyed an illustrious history in Melbourne; he’s even a former champion, in fact. The Swiss seems to be getting back to somewhere close to his best on the heels of major knee issues. That is bad news for Gulbis, who will show flashes of brilliance before once again being doomed by inconsistency. Wawrinka in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Pete: Amazingly, Wawrinka and Gulbis have met just once–nine years ago–despite the fact that they have been on the ATP Tour for seemingly forever. Last year at this time, Gulbis was playing in a Challenger–the first of 10 such tournaments that he would enter in 2018. The Latvian has won just two matches in Melbourne in his career (2-8 lifetime) and his last victory was five years ago. After being sidelined for a couple of months last year, Wawrinka started to show signs of shaking off the rust with impressive and competitive performances against Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Grigor Dimitrov during the U.S. Open Series. The Swiss has performed well Down Under and has, at times, been considered a threat to win the title again after doing so in 2014. The overall victory tally in Melbourne reads Wawrinka 35 and Gulbis two. Stan dazzles the Australian crowd once again and awaits the winner of Kyrgios-Raonic next. Wawrinka in 3: 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.
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(WC) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Martin Klizan
Ricky: The 2008 Australian Open final was Tsonga vs. Novak Djokovic; they may have to face each other in the second round 11 years later. First, though, the Frenchman will have what should be an extremely entertaining affair on his hands with Klizan. The Slovak’s charisma is more under the radar than than that of Tsonga because he does not have the results to back it up, but Klizan is a somewhat crazy character who is always worth watching. Although this is not the same Tsonga as the one who used to be a staple of the top 10, he generally plays well Down Under and his recent quarterfinal performance in Brisbane was encouraging. Tsonga in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4), 7-5.
Pete: Klizan reached the St. Petersburg final last October despite playing three consecutive Challengers on clay leading up to that tournament. Quite a versatile player, the Slovak also successfully advanced through the qualifying draw in eight of 11 ATP main draws, proving that he was a significantly better player than his ranking stated at the time. He also won Kitzbuhel as a qualifier. That said, he is just 3-5 lifetime at the Australian Open with his last win coming four years ago. Tsonga was primed for a solid 2018 when he won four titles in 2017. However, last year he was off the tour for seven months, finally returning in September. The former Australian Open finalist played a tiebreaker in each of his four matches this year in Brisbane, winning three of them. Despite the fact that both men have been on tour for more than a decade, they have met just once. Tsonga has 33 more wins in Melbourne than his opponent, giving him a decided advantage in the match. The Frenchman wins and looks forward to a likely date in the next round with six-time Australian Open champion Djokovic. Tsonga in 4: 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
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Guido Pella vs. Joao Sousa
Ricky: Unless you’re a fan of Wimbledon and Wimbledon only, Sousa vs. Pella is a matchup that everyone should appreciate. Both of these guys are overachievers who have gotten as much as possible out of their respective natural talent levels and then some. This will most likely be a baseline grind of the highest caliber. Pella dominated their only previous meeting 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 last spring at Roland Garros, but there is no reason why that should ever happen. And it won’t happen again. A change to hard courts gives a slight edge to Sousa, who was the better player in the second half of last season and has been the better player so far this year. Sousa in in 4: 7-5, 6-2, 3-6, 7-5.
Pete: Quietly, Sousa recorded eight big wins in 2018 over players that are currently ranked in the top 24. Since cracking the ATP top 50 in late 2013, the Portuguese has steadily remained in or near the top 50 for the majority of the last five years. Sousa will arrive in Melbourne feeling good about a win last week in Auckland over Denis Shapovalov, coming back from a set down. Pella has just one career win in Melbourne in four appearances. However, he reached the third round at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year to achieve career bests at both majors. At Wimbledon, he defeated 2017 finalist Marin Cilic in the second round. Unfortunately for the Argentine, he was struggling with lower-back pain two weeks ago in Doha. As a result, his match play this year consists of a single victory before arriving in Melbourne. Sousa senses a winnable match and plays accordingly. Sousa in 3: 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.
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who ya got?
I’ll go with Curious in 4, but I should just go flip a coin. The only thing predictable about him is that he will lose at some point before the final.
Wawa in 4, Tsonga in 5, Sousa in 4.
I think it’s too early to make any judgment about the 2019’s skill of those player.
No bet for me tomorrow, except watching
Pella in 5 Tsonga in 3 Stan in 4 Kyrgios in 5. These are awesome matchups. Tsonga seemed like he was back in Brisbane. He was particularly great against De Minaur in the quarters. I missed his game and his energy. I think he and Djokovic will make for an entertaining clash in round two.
I cant back the good Kyrgios to show up even at his home Slam where Raonic has a very good record.
Him in four tight sets .