The Australian Open draw was revealed on Friday afternoon at Melbourne Park. A brutal top half features Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roger Federer. Nadal will open against Bernard Tomic.
No. 1 seeds are not immune to ghastly draws; if nothing else, the 2014 Australian Open men’s singles bracket proved as much.
Rafael Nadal headlines a loaded top half of the draw along with Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roger Federer. As tough as that foursome looks, Nadal will have to focus on potentially taxing roadblocks long before he reaches the point of facing fellow Top 10 players. Up first for the top-ranked Spaniard is current Sydney semifinalist Bernard Tomic, who has reached at least the third round of three straight Aussie Opens and has never lost in the first round.
Nadal could face Gael Monfils during third-round action in what would be a rematch of the Doha title match, which Nadal won in three sets. Lleyton Hewitt has a seemingly nice path through to the second week before he would run into Nadal.
If seeds hold to form in the top half, far from a certainty given the startling lineup of contenders, quarterfinal showdowns would pit Nadal against Del Potro and Murray against Federer. Federer, however, could be in the line for another battle versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as early as the last 16. Murray may have to face John Isner at that stage.
Relatively speaking, the bottom half of the bracket is an inaugural Melbourne Challenger. Novak Djokovic’s only potential danger in his entire section–unless Ernests Gulbis is still to be taken seriously–is Stanislas Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. Djokovic and Wawrinka, of course, arguably played the match of the year in the 2013 Australian Open fourth round (won by the Serb 12-10 in the fifth set). In the third quarter, familiar foes David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych are on a collision course for the last eight.
full draw here – http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/ms/index.html
@ chloro
Too old for this kind of dissertation, unfortunately. But the 1st thing that crossed my mind when I looked at the AO 2013 singles’ draws was to wonder whether Tomic and Barty would have to hire Rod Laver and Margaret Court as their respective coaches, for a bit more weight to be given by Tennis Australia, AO organisers, etc, to their own best hopes tennis career/future versus TV ratings, Twitter frenzies, aggressive gamblings, and so forth.
Personally, definitely not an adept of conspiracy theories (and no, I’m not Australian). Nonetheless, I do think it’d be a bit naive to believe that decisions are not being continuously taken and implementted, everywhere, by everyone.
* the AO 2014 singles’ draws. Sorry.
I just read Tignor’s predictions for the AO. He actually thinks that Tomic could get a set off Rafa. That ought to set some people’s teeth on edge! 🙂
He picked Rafa to beat Murray in the semis, Djoker to beat Berdy in the semis. He doesn’t think Ferrer is going to get through his part of the draw. Then he picked – surprise! – Djoker to beat Rafa in the final.
@NNY
Am quite surprised he’s got Andy going that far tbh. Must think he’s gonna put Fed out then? Must check.
@deucy,
Tignor said that even though Andy was just coming back from surgery and maybe not yet in his best form, that it could be possible for him to play himself into better form in the tournament. It’s a possibility that has been in my mind, too. He has a decent draw and with some match play, he could get into the second week.
He didn’t go round by round, but did say that Fed could run into trouble with Tsonga. Tignor did pick Murray to come through his part of the draw and make the semis. It certainly could happen.
Theoretically Djokovic should be able to sleepwalk his way to the final. But it’s possible having such an easy draw, combined with being slated as the favourite, might actually work against him if he is lulled into complacency.
Well, one can only hope that this might be the case.
Like I wrote before, one of the big question for the male ATP circuit this year is where Novak will take his mind. Last year he was for good stretches far from commanding the mental strength he should be valuing like gold.
The other main questions would be how Andy fares now, Nadal’s knees as always, and whether anyone else at all can win a major or several 500+ titles… perhaps that will have to wait again for another year.
Minor question, will the Emperor continue into 2015 if 2014 turns out like last year? Is he still holding out hope for a draw that opens unexpectedly at a major?
Chloro, I think you should put ‘Emperor’ in inverted commas, in fact it should be the Emperor with no clothes.
holdserve, I think it’s unlikely that they would rig a draw and put Tomic in a first round match with Rafa followed by Hewitt in his Qtr. I don’t think that even they believe in the Tomic hype to that extent. Tomic beat Novak last year, so their best bet would have been to put him in Nole’s Qtr.
maybe they put Tomic against Rafa in R1 to DISGUISE the fact that other parts of the draw were rigged.
#LOL
#InspectorGadget
Is it a coincidence that all slam winners are in Rafa’s half and all those who reached a final after Jan 1st are in Rafa’s half ( Tsonga hopman cup, Monfils doha, Delpo-Tomic Sydney, Isner-hsun lu Auckland) ? It is really defying the law of probability. This certainly does not appear more likely than Isner-Mahut meeting in 2 consecutive Wimbly 1st rounds which Ricky was prepared to grant was rigged.
complaining about Lu and Tomic being in the same half of he draw as Rafa is really grabbing at straws.
Djokovic and Wawrinka, who played 2 five-setters against each other last year, are in the same quarter of the draw.
#Rigged
I did not complain about Hsun lu, i pointed out the low probability of ALL the finalists including your “lowly” Lu being in Rafa’s half. I forgot to mention Fed-Hewitt Brisbane. What do you think is the probability that ALL the finalists of the warm up tournaments would be in Rafa’s half?
low probability that they would all end up in the same half. not really concerned about the probability of them specifically landing in Rafa’s half.
It’s also unlikely that they would put Federer, who has friends in high places, in Rafa’s half and Murray’s Qtr. knowing that he only has a 25% chance of beating Rafa and a 50% chance of beating Murray.
well Federer does have the benefit on being on the opposite side from Djoker and–more importantly–with a major roadblock for Nadal before Nadal would face Federer.
So you believe in rigged draws then, Ricky.
Who exactly is the major road block in Rafa’s Qtr?
J.M. Del Potro (ARG)
I forgot Stan. He and fellow finalist Roger vasselin are both in Djoko’s half.
So what’s the probability that all the finalists in warm -ups played in Australia would be in Rafa’s half and Stan and Roger Vasselin would be in Djoker’s half ? The prob is 1/512 which is lower than the prob of Isner drawing Mahut in the 1st round at Wimbly (2/285)..
If we ignore Roger Vasselin and see only Stan as the chosen one, for Djoko then the prob is 1/256 which also is lower than the Isner-Mahut probability.
So if you accept Isner-Mahut as rigged than Stan in Djoker’s half ( as many had predicted beforehand ) and all “hot” players from Aussie warm ups in Rafa’s half is part of a rigged draw. Considering we live in a world where people will do unfair things to get an advantage if they can get away with it and everybody knows the ones with money are prepared to do anything to get more money ( easier for a camel to pass the eye of a needle etc) why is it so hard to believe that the draws are rigged?
Nadal’s half second. He will have less rest for the final.
https://twitter.com/SI_BTBaseline/statuses/421860055290372096
So, before the first ball is hit in anger, here is what Rafa has to overcome to claim his second career Slam:
1. A draw of death;
2. Less rest for the final should he get there;
3. The fastest Oz Open courts he’s ever played on.
In mitigation:
1. He has beaten all he will face potentially;
2. He had the same situation when he beat Fed to the title;
3. He thrived on the fats courts of Montreal, Cincy and USOpen.
Rafa will do it.
C’mon Champ!!
Vamos!
#AgainstAllOdds
#DoingTheHornTootings
The prob that all the Aussie finalists would fall in the same half is the same as the prob that they will fall in Rafa’s half as Rafa is also a Aussie finalist.. So they can all be in the same half only if they are in Rafa’s half..
i just hope you aren’t comparing Doha to Australia
#DoYou
Ricky, then why are you comparing Shanghai to Australia?
my comment was a joke
previous poster said Nadal won a warmup event in “Australia”
Every year, the top half plays second at AO so the top seed gets 1 day before final whereas the second seed gets 2 days ( Rafa-Fed at AO 2009, Rafa-Djoko at AO 2012)
Sorry, I forgot Doha was not in Australia.
Or rather I forgot Rafa played in Doha. Anyway, some premonition that Rafa is going to be Aussie finalist from his half.
I would like to make one point regarding all of these conspiracy theories. Let’s say that it is a conspiracy to make it harder for Rafa to win. But my question is, how do they rig the matches? As Rafa has said so well, it has to happen on the court. Matches have to be played. Are we now going to assume that matches are rigged, too? Are some players going to tank a match just to make this so-called conspiracy work? That’s what I don’t get.
The assumption seems to be that the people rigging the draw and conspiring to fix the outcome can control all aspects of the tournament. But the one “x” factor, the one huge thing that they cannot control is who wins the matches. How many times have we seen a tough draw turn out to be relatively easy because some of the difficult opponents didn’t win and make it far enough? How do you control the outcome of all the matches?
That’s why I am not getting all riled up over this conspiracy to rig the draw. I don’t like the fact that the top half is loaded with so many tough players, while the bottom half is so much weaker. I don’t like Rafa having a potentially very tough draw and having one day’s lest rest. I don’t think it’s fair at all. But I still do not believe that this alone can determine the outcome.
#Keepingitreal
#StandingUpForWhatIThink
RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Federer on court speed: “It’s a little bit faster than last year, but not a whole lot.” #ausopen”
RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Always the contrarian: Andy Murray says the courts are playing EXACTLY the same as last year. #ausopen”
RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Sharapova says the courts are slower than Brisbane. Nadal says they’re the fastest #AusOpen courts he’s ever played on.”
So, which is it, players………are the courts slow, fast, exactly as they were last year??
beauty is in the eye of the beholder
RT @juanjosetennis: “Not surprised Nadal is a little shocked by the conditions: last year the AO definitely went for more speed. And he wasn’t there.
Aha, explains Rafa’s reaction……………….
It could be that Rafa is being sarcastic because everyone always speculates on his prospects depending on the speed of the courts.
Rigging a draw and rigging a match are totally different. Rigging a draw is done by the organizers. Rigging a match is done with the active co operation of the players. .
Your reasoning:
Rigging of draws is a conspiracy.
Rigging of matches is a conspiracy.
Therefore rigging of draws is the same as rigging of matches.
It is like saying
Dog is an animal
Elephant is an animal
So dog is elephant.
f you choose not to believe that the draws are rigged that is your choice.
But there is a difference between claiming that a dice is loaded based on observation of throws of the dice and claiming that the dice is loaded based on paranoia..
Everyone knows that matches are won on the court but draws have a big say in who eventually emerges the winner. It is because of this that fans expect the organizers to create random draws.
As it is, the draws even as per the rules, are not completely random..
Imagine if the draw had been totally random, Rafa and Djoker may have met in the first round!
But their positions are fixed beforehand as per the rules so that they cannot meet before the finals, This is an example of rigging permitted by the rules to favor chances of a no. 1 vs no. 2 final. This does not imply that all other players have to tank their matches to ensure a no. 1 vs no. 2 final.
holdserve19, I believe in the possibility of rigged draws, too. There’s too much money at stake for the organizers. And there are ways, how it can be done. That said, not every unlikely draw has to be a rigged draw. Unlikely events do happen. Otherwise there would be no lottery winners :). And a rigged draw has to make sense. The organizers want attractive pairings, a high calibre final and a chance for the local guys. All this isn’t guaranteed at all with this draw. The only one, who profits immensely, is the Djoker. And unless the Serbian mafia went into Godfather mode and threatened all the organizers, or the Djoker promised a million Dollars to everyone involved in the draw, I cannot see, in whose interest, with the exception of the Djoker, this draw is. And I really, really don’t think, the whole tennis world conspires against Rafa. Why should they? He’s one of their hottest commodities, and Rafole is a dream finale for every slam. And this draw does nothing to ensure it.
Thank you for this response. I think you make some excellent points as to why it would not be in the interest of the organizers to have one lopsided draw.
I agree that it is not in the interest of the organizers or anyone else who wishes to profit off this, to stack the draw in this manner.
However, I don’t know that you will necessarily be heard.
None of you guys complained about Rafa’s WTF draw. His group virtually ensured his year end No 1 ranking. Rigged? And let me tell you this: this group draw is easier to rigg than all other draws.
@littlefoot, the reason nobody complained about the WTF draw is because of the sample size………..compared to that of the Oz Open.
what was his WTF draw? Ferrer? Berdych? Wawa?
RITB, I should’ve put a wink emoticon behind that comment. Of course the sample size is too small. I was just talking about the phenomenon, that nobody talks about rigged draws, when their favorite benefits.
Ricky, yes, I was hinting at Ferrer, Berdych and Wawa, lol!
i just can’t remember what the draw was. If that was it…..WOW.
Ricky, that was it! Rafa must’ve friends in high places, too, lol!
might as well have handed him world No. 1 on a silver platter.
Ricky, yup!
@holdserve,
You didn’t address me by name, but since I was the one who clearly made this argument then it’s obvious that your response was directed at me.
Sarcasm and condescension do not a coherent argument make. My point was that those supposedly rigging the draws do not have control over every aspect of the tournament. The matches can’t be rigged unless players become involved and agree to lose matches deliberately. Therefore, simply rigging draws is not enough to ensure a certain outcome.
As I pointed out in my initial post, many times difficult draws have become much easier because some of the tough opponents that a player might face never made it through.
If you want to go on and on and rail against those who are conspiring in dark corners to fix tournaments, then by all means do so. I just don’t think that it’s as simple as you make it out to be.