Novak Djokovic will be playing his first official match since Wimbledon when he kicks off his Australian Open campaign against Donald Young on Tuesday. First-round action is also wrapping up with a showdown between Dominic Thiem and Guido Pella.
(14) Novak Djokovic vs. Donald Young
An elbow injury has sidelined Djokovic ever since he retired from a Wimbledon quarterfinal contest against Tomas Berdych last summer. There were questions concerning his status for this Australian Open–and questions remain about the long-term health of his elbow–but he appears to have the green light for the upcoming festivities in Melbourne. If there is one tournament Djokovic does not want to miss, it is without question the Aussie Open. The 14th-ranked Serb is 58-7 lifetime Down Under with six titles and he had not lost prior to the quarterfinals since 2007 until Denis Istomin stunned him during second-round action last year.
Up first for Djokovic on Tuesday is a third career encounter with Young, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. The 63rd-ranked American lost 4-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 at the 2006 U.S. Open and 6-2, 7-6(9) at the 2017 Eastbourne event. Young has not yet played this season, so his form is difficult to gauge. But his form hardly matters in this one. If Djokovic is less than 100 percent, this could be interesting; if Djokovic is 100 percent, a rout is in the cards. The latter appears to be more likely.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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(5) Dominic Thiem vs. Guido Pella
Thiem is another top player who heads into Melbourne as a question mark, although in his case it is not due to any kind of physical problem. The fifth-ranked Austrian has been relatively hopeless on hard courts over the past few seasons–at least compared to his exploits on clay. Predictably, both of Thiem’s Grand Slam semifinal appearances have come at the French Open. He has lost in each of the last two Australian Opens to David Goffin, in the 2016 third round and 2017 fourth round.
With Pella up first on Tuesday, Thiem is by no means a lock to advance out of the opening round this time despite being the No. 5 seed. The head-to-head series stands at 2-0 in favor of the 56th-ranked Argentine, who prevailed 6-1, 6-4 two seasons ago in Rio de Janeiro and 7-6(6), 6-4 this past fall in Chengdu. Pella is coming off a runner-up performance in Doha, where he eventually lost a 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(2) semifinal thriller against Andrey Rublev. The good news for Thiem is that he also played well in Doha, beating Evgeny Donskoy, Aljaz Bedene, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets before withdrawing due to illness. Their head-to-head history notwithstanding, Thiem’s propensity to play so far behind the baseline does not hurt him against Pella as bad as it does against more aggressive opponents. The favorite should be able to survive, but it won’t be easy.
Pick: Thiem in 4
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