Novak Djokovic will be playing his first official match since Wimbledon when he kicks off his Australian Open campaign against Donald Young on Tuesday. First-round action is also wrapping up with a showdown between Dominic Thiem and Guido Pella.
(14) Novak Djokovic vs. Donald Young
An elbow injury has sidelined Djokovic ever since he retired from a Wimbledon quarterfinal contest against Tomas Berdych last summer. There were questions concerning his status for this Australian Open–and questions remain about the long-term health of his elbow–but he appears to have the green light for the upcoming festivities in Melbourne. If there is one tournament Djokovic does not want to miss, it is without question the Aussie Open. The 14th-ranked Serb is 58-7 lifetime Down Under with six titles and he had not lost prior to the quarterfinals since 2007 until Denis Istomin stunned him during second-round action last year.
Up first for Djokovic on Tuesday is a third career encounter with Young, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. The 63rd-ranked American lost 4-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 at the 2006 U.S. Open and 6-2, 7-6(9) at the 2017 Eastbourne event. Young has not yet played this season, so his form is difficult to gauge. But his form hardly matters in this one. If Djokovic is less than 100 percent, this could be interesting; if Djokovic is 100 percent, a rout is in the cards. The latter appears to be more likely.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
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(5) Dominic Thiem vs. Guido Pella
Thiem is another top player who heads into Melbourne as a question mark, although in his case it is not due to any kind of physical problem. The fifth-ranked Austrian has been relatively hopeless on hard courts over the past few seasons–at least compared to his exploits on clay. Predictably, both of Thiem’s Grand Slam semifinal appearances have come at the French Open. He has lost in each of the last two Australian Opens to David Goffin, in the 2016 third round and 2017 fourth round.
With Pella up first on Tuesday, Thiem is by no means a lock to advance out of the opening round this time despite being the No. 5 seed. The head-to-head series stands at 2-0 in favor of the 56th-ranked Argentine, who prevailed 6-1, 6-4 two seasons ago in Rio de Janeiro and 7-6(6), 6-4 this past fall in Chengdu. Pella is coming off a runner-up performance in Doha, where he eventually lost a 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(2) semifinal thriller against Andrey Rublev. The good news for Thiem is that he also played well in Doha, beating Evgeny Donskoy, Aljaz Bedene, and Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets before withdrawing due to illness. Their head-to-head history notwithstanding, Thiem’s propensity to play so far behind the baseline does not hurt him against Pella as bad as it does against more aggressive opponents. The favorite should be able to survive, but it won’t be easy.
Pick: Thiem in 4
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who ya got?
I highly doubt Djoker is 100% right now or even that close to 100% but I still take him in three sets. Also I got Pella over Thiem in five.
I was going to do the same with Pella,but changed my mind last minute
I really don’t think Djoko is going far.
Djokovic over Young in 3
Thiem over Pella in 5
I think Novak will get by Young. He may well not be 100% yet, but I think he’s going to win this one.
I have been going back and forth with Theim and Pella. I think I will go with Ricky’s pick – Theim for the win in four sets.
Joker in a routine 3, and Thiem in a hard fought 5.
Thiem also won in straight sets!
Djoker looking real good today. Also good to see Stan fighting through. Honestly this match could’ve been close for even a healthy Stan as he always has started slow early in the tourney. Allez Stanimal!!
Hey Benny, how did you feel about your boy Fed’s play against Bedene overall? The one thing about Fed that I feel like can potentially not-so-good for him is the fact that he is so openly saying that he is “not so sure” about his chances for this title… I appreciate his desire to be honest, and I think it’s a fair question to ask if a 36 1/2 year old can really be considered THE favorite. However, it has NEVER served Federer well when he doubts himself, and I don’t see why that would be different now. Last year was an exception because he really was overachieving throughout the tournament relative to his and everyone else’s expectations of him in his first real tournament in 6 months. However, he is not playing with that house money that he was in last year’s AO. Whether or not it’s a realistic expectation for a 36 year old, and whether or not he is comfortable with it, he can’t avoid the fact that he IS a favorite, if not the slight favorite.
If he really wants to defend his title, possibly needing beat Rafa in the final if he (Fed) gets there, it is only detrimental to him to so openly say that he is unsure about his chances, and giving Rafa’s form as a reason for that.
Let me clarify- I do not disagree with Fed! He should be at least a little bit unsure in his head considering that the other top players (except for Stan/Andy) are looking good. All top players have at least a little bit of lingering doubt in their heads, and they would be lying if they said there wasn’t any. But I’m still surprised to hear Fed publicly saying to everyone that he has that doubt. That is only fuel for his opponents, and it has only served to give him problems with his own game in the past. It’s ok to be honest that anything can happen, but I’m surprised that he doesn’t want to give off more of an air of confidence. I guess it’s just the way he is, to be honest to a fault? I don’t know… What you think, Benny?
He plays down his chances regularly. I’m sure he’s confident in his chances.
Yeah, I don’t doubt at all that he IS confident. People who have won 19 major titles tend to have a liiiitle bit of confidence. 😉 I just wonder if he may actually have more doubt in the back of his mind than he realizes… I guess it just makes me nervous for any of these top guys when they openly talk about struggling with confidence. For Fed’s sake, I hope he’s just being openly realistic, and that there isn’t some bigger level of self-doubt in the back of his mind that is creeping up into the front of his mind.
We’ve obviously seen Fed, Rafa, and Novak all struggle with confidence at certain points in their respective careers. Personally, I always want for all 3 of them to be confident. There is no question that all three of them each know they are capable of beating anyone in the world on their day. That’s the part I love the most about the Big 3. Fed is in the twilight of his career, and Rafa/Novak are starting to enter the back-9 of their careers, yet all three of them are capable of producing brilliance on any given day. 🙂
I agree, Benny. I also think, Fed is just playing it down. I can’t remember that he ever claimed he’s the one to beat for the title. That would be foolish. It’s different though, when he talks about specific opponents. Then he can be more assertive.
It was obviously different before the USO. He had a specific issue with his back, and therefore he said early on, we shouldn’t expect too much from him.
Delpo, Thiem and Monfils all through in straight sets. It’s good to see the top players going through to the next round; a bit disappointed that Anderson lost; Raonic clearly still has problems.
I’m happy that Medvedev won the battle of the next gen; he and Delpo survived after playing final at warm up events last week whilst De Minaur and Agut didn’t survive (credit to both Berdych and Verdasco).
Ricky correctly predicted the Verdasco win! Good for him. I was going with Bautista-Agut. But Verdasco has a history of doing damage at the AO. He doesn’t seem to be totally whashed up just yet.