Ricky Dimon of the Grandstand and Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen preview and pick the two men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Tomas Berdych is looking to upset nemesis Rafael Nadal while Nick Kyrgios hopes to continue his magical run at the expense of Andy Murray.
(7) Tomas Berdych vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: How many people are going to fall into the trap and pick this one to be extremely competitive–if not pick Berdych to win altogether? I already know a lot of people are…and I’m expecting more and more to do so before the match starts. The Czech’s style is one that should trouble Nadal and his form at this Australian Open has been scary. But…but…we’ve seen this story before and we know how the story ends. Berdych is 0-17 in his last 17 matches against Nadal and on more than a few occasions he was playing incredible tennis prior to meeting the Spaniard. The best among a plethora of examples is Wimbledon in 2010, when Berdych took Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer to the woodshed in consecutive rounds then promptly lost to Nadal in straights in the championship. It doesn’t help the underdog that Nadal has dominated two matches since his second-round scare against Tim Smyczek. Berdych knows he can’t beat Nadal. HOW MANY TIMES must Nadal beat him before everyone else figures out the same thing? Nadal 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.
Pete: Berdych, my pre-tournament dark horse selection, comes into his quarterfinal match against Nadal having not dropped a set through the first four rounds. Berdych is appearing in his fifth consecutive Australian Open quarterfinal and he hopes to at least equal last year’s semifinal berth with a win. However, the Czech has dropped 17 consecutive matches to Nadal and has only managed to win three of 40 sets played in those contests. Nadal’s five-set, second-round thriller against Smyczek seems like long ago and now the Spaniard will seek to continue the form he showed against Kevin Anderson in the round of 16, when he cruised to a straight-set win. Berdych will manage to stay with Nadal early on and have opportunities to do damage, but it will be business as usual once again for Nadal in this lopsided matchup. Nadal 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3.
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(6) Andy Murray vs. Nick Kyrgios
Ricky: Murray and Kyrgios have no such extensive head-to-head history, of course, since the Aussie is really in just his second season on tour. In their only previous encounter, Kyrgios was still in a twilight zone after Wimbledon and got clobbered by Murray 6-2, 6-2 in Toronto. It won’t be so lopsided this time around with the youngster in outstanding form and enjoying circus-like crowd support. But Kyrgios has been tested physically throughout this tournament and mentally he has had plenty to think about (minor controversy over his on-court antics, for example). His awesome run this fortnight has been predicated on winning free points in the most important moments. He won’t win many of those against the Scot. Murray 7-6(6), 7-5, 6-1.
Pete: At the ripe age of 19, Kyrgios finds himself in his second quarterfinal in the last three majors. The Aussie has been able to meander his way through a tricky draw, finally steadying his game late in his first-round match and then escaping yet again in the round of 16 as he staged a dramatic, five-set victories in both. Murray, a three-time Australian Open finalist, has taken a much more efficient route into this quarterfinal. The Brit had not been threatened in the tournament until the fourth round, when Dimitrov nearly took him to a fifth set. The battle-tested Kyrgios will feed off of the boisterous crowd at Rod Laver Arena, but it will certainly not be nearly enough against the experience and craftiness of Murray, who will relish this particular challenge and gladly play the villain role. Murray 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4.
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Rafa in 4;
Muzza in 3.
I have a feeling the Big Bird will snag the first set in a TB. Rafa will then adjust his game (as is his wont!), frustrate the Big Bird and take the next 3 sets at a canter.
Ricky,
I get what you are saying about Berdy, but I don’t like to take anything for granted at this point. So I guess Berdy’s new coach and his training regimen and great play leading up to this match won’t mean anything. I said in a previous post on another topic thread that the problem with Berdy is that he has lost the match before he even gets on the court. So you see it being more of the same. I hope you are right.
I do think that Berdy will give Rafa a match. I think he may get a set off Rafa, but in the end I am picking Rafa to win.
As for Murray, I think he will get the win against Kyrgios in four sets. Seppi should have beaten Kyrgios, but I think the raucous crowd got to him in the end. This is where his run will end. Murray did say that he likes it when the crowd is against him, so it should be perfect for him.
@NNY
^^ Typical Murray bloody mindedness 🙂
Banking on Murray to get the job done. Like you I can’t stand Kyrgios. Cant wait to see him get his comeuppance.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8QmgeUIYAEWBD4.png
Rafa is not winning this in straights for sure. Berdy has an outside chance. He lost in 2012 when he had chance to go 2 sets to 0 up due to a botched up volley though he had an open court. Rafa will be mindful of that and I am expecting him to be a bit nervous too.
This is my first post in a long long time… nice to see Rafa back in the tick-of-it!
It’s difficult to judge Rafa’s game yet, he’s not yet at 100% and he had to fight very hard the other day, I’m not sure how much petrol he’s got left in the tank.
I think if Berdych is able to get it to tie-breakers he will be the one to win this.
Rafa, in my opinion, has already done more than expected here.
Agree with you, Rafa has already exceeded my expectations too. Having said that, I disagree with regard who would come out the winner ion TB’s. I think TB’s favour Rafa with TB’s against big hitters because Rafa’s return game is better and all Berd has to do is DF once or miss a first serve and it’s curtains……………
Did u not say calendar slam for Rafa this year if I remember correctly? 🙂
How can he then exceed expectations ?
Shireling says:
January 26, 2015 at 10:56 am
—Rafa, in my opinion, has already done more than expected here.—
You have low expectations for Rafa. 🙂
http://static.tumblr.com/2zbgtn7/Yrmmszjag/rafael_nadal_meets_rafa_nadal.gif
thank you for this one, Augusta
Is this Rafa imitating Fed’s mannerism? I am probably wrong as Rafa doesn’t usually do parodies and imitations.
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chloro
January 26, 2015 at 4:39 pm
nadline10 posted this GIF!
It’s Rafa himself
http://www.nadalnews.com/2013/07/09/rafa-meets-josh-berry/
I don’t see what the Smyczek match has to do with Rafa’s form when he was ill during the match. He was dizzy and had cramps from the 2nd set onward and was on the verge of retiring, but thankfully he battled on and got the win. He said he felt like throwing up serving for the 3rd set which he eventually lost in a TB. That match tells us nothing about his form, nothing.
Rafa says their h2h going into the match is irrelevant, let alone one botched up volley played by Berdych 3 years ago. I haven’t seen any of Berdych’s matches here but I was impressed with Rafa’s performance against Anderson who is a poor version of Berdych. Still, that doesn’t mean much, it’s what happens in this match that’s going to count. I just hope Rafa stays fit and healthy throughout the match to be competitive..
Maybe they should start the match with Berdych leading by one set to love and at the point of the volley with Berdych making sure he doesn’t botch it.
Since that ‘botched up volley’, Rafa has beaten Berdych 8 times, 5 of them on hard court.
Lol nadline for devoting so much print to the botched up volley comment
Shirelings message makes me nervous. I think he/she has always come n said it loud when he/ she feels rafa will lose n if I remember Rafa has lost those matches. I know what Rafa does on court will only count but still…..
BTW it is berdych fault that he botched up the volley however fact is the point was on his racquet n he goofed it up n Rafa stole the 2nd set
sanju, that’s got nothing to do with subsequent matches between them.
It’s the way people lived in hope for a whole year that if only Djokovic hadn’t run into the net at RG 2013 in the 5th set he would have won the match (as if they knew that for a fact) thinking that when they met in 2014 it was a foregone conclusion that Djokovic would win, and he didn’t. In fact it did not even go to 5 sets.
Subsequent matches Rafa was high in confidence and Rafa was anyways going to overpower. 2012 AO was kinda similar to this year where Rafa came after a substandard 2011.
All I am saying is not to take Berdy lightly.
^^^……and Berdych has only won 1 set in those 8 losses against Rafa since 2012.
When Rafa was 5:5, 0:40 down in the 1st set and he held his nerves to win the next 5 points to win the game then immediately broke Anderson to take the set, I knew the rust was going.
I’m going to pick Rafa in 4. I think Berd will win the first set either 7-5 or a TB and then like some of you above said, Rafa will adjust his game and coast. I also pick Murray to win, but my pick is 5 sets — and he will suffer and groan and grimace and clutch body parts through it all.
ESPN experts’ picks:
http://espn.go.com/sports/tennis/picks
Not one picked Rafa.
That was before the tournament started…so no surprise there. How many of us picked Rafa to win it all at the beginning? He’s definitely gotten better and better and is definitely a favorite.
Jeu Nadal,
I agree with you. I have no problem with the ESPN experts not picking Rafa. The simple fact is that no one really knew what he would be like, where his game would be after so much time not playing and so few matches in the last months of 2013. So I think it’s reasonable that they would not pick him. However, we have seen him go through a trial by fire in that second round match with Smycek. He survived and has looked better than expected in his next two matches.
I don’t think Rafa is at his best now. I am not sure if he can get to the level necessary to win this slam. But I do know that he has surpassed expectations and now that he is in the second week, anything is possible.
I do think that Berdy will give him a match. He could take a set off Rafa. But in the end, I think Rafa is going to raise his level and get the win.
Hey guys and gals,
Sanju – January 26, 2015 at 2:34 pm
I’m a ‘he’ and have been following up Rafa’s career since before he became pro, as most of you have too.
Didn’t mean to make you nervous but bear in mind that Rafa has been away for a while and was operated of appendicitis not so long ago. He’s getting battle-hardened but this has to be done gradually and, although I don’t put it past him to actually win this AO, I’d say it’s unlikely.
I just think that if it goes to TBs Berdych will win, that’s all. If Rafa takes even on set without going to TB, Rafa will win.. don’t know in how many set but he’ll clinch it. That’s my gut-feeling anyways 🙂
Shireling,
I think that you are absolutely right about Rafa not being battle-hardened enough coming into this AO and also not having his fitness quite where it should be. I just posted a altogether too-long post on this in the Nadal thread.
And … in my humble opinion you tend to be a little over-pessimistic or perhaps just a little over-worried: for example, where it comes to the Berdych match in particular I don’t see Berdych as much of a thread this week. Unless on that day Rafa’s fitness (and match mentality) turns out to be too big a factor, like last Wednesday. Even then Rafa has a decent chance of winning, this being Berdych.
haha..Ricky’s preview is funny.
I am picking rafa in 3 sets with probably two of them to be very competitive. Rafa may lose a set if he gets nervous or show hesitation at any stage. I think that Berdych has the weapons to put a lot of pressure on rafa and berdych can generate so much pace off his forehand. Rafa would have to ensure he moves berdych as much as possible and I know he will do that.
Had rafa not been changing direction of the ball well, I would not have picked him to win in 3 sets but I think he has been changing the direction really well ! forehand DTL is very much alive and getting better and he is also doing damage with his backhand DTL.
I expect Rafa to come out firing and get the early break! He will keep building momentum then. People here are saying that Anderson is a poor version of Berdych . Yes, he is in some ways but do not forget that Anderson takes more risks and flattens out his shots more on average.
Rafa is also comfortable returning berdych’s 2nd serve and that helps him. I think he will raise his level tomorrow and send out a message that he is truly back. Berdy will go after his serve and we know berdy has a solid ROS. There will be tough moments but rafa’s winning formula will once again be more than enough I think.
And regarding that scenario being discussed that Berdy will simply lose because he has losr 17 in a row. Well, it is extremely difficult to snap this streak unless your opponent is not injured or dead tired. Rafa is playing reasonably well and berdych , given that he is playing so well, can make things tough like he did in 2012. While this streak is very impressive, it can obviously be over any time soon. Soderling finally got a win over federer in his 13th attempt, Seppi got his win in his 11th attempt and roddick. Hewitt snapped federer’s 15 match winnign streak by defeating him on grass in 2010 so it definitely CAN happen. but WILL it happen here at a grand slam keeping in view the current situation, I would confidently say No!
Koenig has picked Berdych for the win!!
comedy
If Berdy has a change of snapping his losing streak against Rafa, it will be on grass. I don’t see it happening here or on a hard court.
will be at WTFs. Nowhere else.
vamosrafa,
It’s interesting that you said Anderson takes more risks and flattens out his shots. So he should have made more a of a match out of it. But don’t you think that he kind of went away mentally after that first set? It’s true that Rafa started firing on all cylinders and really got going, but for me I had the feeling that Anderson just wasn’t really there. His inability to break Rafa in that game seemed to throw him off. So I see mental weakness as his problem in that match. That takes nothing away from Rafa’s brilliant adjustment in moving back so that he could read his serve. Rafa also showed guts in coming back from 0-40 down to save that service game.
I don’t know if Berdy’s new coach will have different tactics or a different mindset, but the key for him is belief. He has to go out there believing that he can beat Rafa. As you said, every winning streak can end at any time. But I think Rafa is sensing that he may have a chance now. This is where he starts raising his level of play and just getting better. Whether it will be enough to actually win this event, I don’t know. But I am betting that he has enough to get the win against Berdy.
Rafa’s return position will be interesting to see. I think he will start off by standing close to the baseline and then adjust if things don’t work out well. In their 2012 qtr final, rafa started by returning from a very deep position and was not able to get back enough meaningful returns and hence berdych punished him big time. He became even more nervous after that and stood even farther back! But he then realized he should move forward and then we saw some mindblowing ROS from rafa in that match, eos in the 4th set.
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Kei in 4. Time to send waaaaaaaaaawrinka packing.
vamosrafa,
Yes, I referenced that match in 2012 in a previous post. Rafa was standing too far back and I think we were all collectively screaming at him on TT to move up to the baseline! That match was very nerve wracking to watch. Berdy was playing extremely well and got that first set and was in a position to win the second set. But Rafa managed to get the second set and from that point on he adjusted his court positioning to receive serve by standing on the baseline. Those cc backhand winners were a thing of beauty!
That’s why Rafa said in his post match interview the other day, that he will have to play more aggressive against Berdy. He didn’t do that with Anderson in the first set. So Berdy is more than capable of taking a set off Rafa. But I don’t see him winning this match.
Koenig really just cracks me up. He lives in hope that Rafa will go down now that Fed is out.
haha, exactly… and i totally agree that berdych was playing extremely well in that 2012 match. I just watched the highlights again and he was KILLING the ball with not only his forehand but also with his backhand. It will be an entertaining contest
January 1980 – Vitas Gerulaitis beat Jimmy Connors in the masters semis, after Connors had beaten him 16 times in a row. At the press conference, a reporter asked Gerulaitis how he had finally managed to beat Connors after losing 16 in a row. Gerulaitis grinned and said, “And let that be a lesson to you all. Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row.” 🙂
EPIC
haha, epic indeed…I came across this when soderling finally beat federer
is this how Sod came up with the quote?
Wasn’t there someone before Sod who reused the line? I’m thinking Roddick. Or maybe Youzhny.
Quill,
I remember that so well! It was a great response from Vitas Gerulaitis. Priceless! We should keep that in mind.
I think Kei is going to beat Stan. It could go four or five sets, but he’s healthy and playing great. I would love to see it happen.
Some tasty matches coming in the quarters, bot in the men’s and women’s draws……..
Rafa/Berdy;
Wawa/Kei;
Nole/Raonic;
Muzza/Nick
In the women’s draw;
Sharpie vs her clone;
Pocket rocket vs Serena;
VR, Does Raonic have enough to make his match with Nole tasty? I ask this knowing that sometimes Nole is not all he can be.
No. Check my twitter for Raonic stats against top players.
If we were talking about Fed vs Berdy I would certainly say Berdy could have a chance…OTOH Rafa is a different animal and Berdy’s game does not pose serious threat to our guy… I am not saying it will be all easy for Rafa especially if Berdy serves well…
I will just put it this way: picture the following list of players : Kyrgios-Murray-Nishikori-Raonic AND Berdy…if we had to chose who would you all prefer Rafa to play in quarters? I bet you would all pick Berdy… 🙂
Rafa in three…with one rather competitive set…
Vamos Rafa!
Raonic..Berdy..Kyrgios..I would put all at the same level for Rafa..
Nishikori can trouble him the most as he takes the ball really early and gives Rafa no time.
Murray puts up a dog fight vs Rafa.
Great point. Would be Berdych by a mile.
Can anyone tell me what time the Semi finals will be played: will they both be night time matches? Trying to organise my social life around the tennis schedule!!
Yes
Rod Laver Arena 11:00am Start Time
1. Women’s Singles – Quarterfinals
Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)[10] vs. Simona Halep (ROU)[3]
Not Before: 12:30pm
2. Women’s Singles – Quarterfinals
Eugenie Bouchard (CAN)[7] vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS)[2]
3. Men’s Singles – Quarterfinals
Tomas Berdych (CZE)[7] vs. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[3]
Rod Laver Arena 7:00pm Start Time
Not Before: 7:15pm
1. Men’s Singles – Quarterfinals
Andy Murray (GBR)[6] vs. Nick Kyrgios (AUS)
2. Mixed Doubles – Round 2
Andreja Klepac (SLO) vs. Casey Dellacqua (AUS)
Chris Guccione (AUS) John Peers (AUS)