Australian Open Day 6 picks, including Nadal vs. Monfils and Raonic vs. Dimitrov

The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Hasan Murad preview and pick the best men’s singles matchups on Day 6 of the Australian Open. This is the sixth of 13 installments of expert picks during the season’s first Grand Slam.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (25) Gael Monfils

Ricky: With Juan Martin Del Potro out of the tournament, this will be Nadal’s toughest test ahead of the quarterfinals and possibly prior to the title match (maybe not if he goes up against Andy Murray in the semis). Monfils is healthy and in rare form at the moment. He reached the Doha final (lost to Nadal in three sets) and has bullied his way past Ryan Harrison and Jack Sock so far in Melbourne. The Frenchman won 86 percent of his first-serve points against Harrison and 84 percent against Sock while facing–and saving–only one break point in two matches. With Monfils serving like this, a competitive, entertaining night session is in store. Nadal, however, conserved energy by making short work of Bernard Tomic and Thanasi Kokkinakis. Fully aware of more dangerous competition on the other side of the net, the world No. 1 will likely raise his level to an even greater height. Nadal 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4.

Hasan: It was almost two weeks ago when Nadal and Monfils competed in the Doha final. Then, the world No. 1 fended off Monfils’ salvo of groundstrokes to inflate his head-to-head series lead to 9-2. This will be just their second match in Grand Slam play after Nadal outshined Monfils 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 in a physical fourth-round battle at the 2009 U.S. Open. Both men have been in superb form of late. Following a virtual walkover in the first round against Tomic, Nadal was very authoritative in a straight-set victory over the promising Kokkinakis. In his two matches so far, Monfils has derailed two young Americans in straight sets. The flamboyant Frenchman is playing consistently well enough to test Nadal, but the top seed looks ready to take on any challenge right now. The Spaniard is effortlessly changing direction with his forehand and with his serve working efficiently, Monfils will be outplayed. Nadal 6-4, 6-2, 6-4.

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(11) Milos Raonic vs. (22) Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: This has the potential to be a future Grand Slam final matchup. For now it comes in the third round, a stage which Dimitrov has never advanced past in his entire career. Raonic, on the other hand, has accomplished that feat four times–including twice in Australia and also in his last major appearance at the 2013 U.S. Open. It’s hard to see Dimitrov dominating this encounter simply because it is so difficult to break and win routine sets against Raonic, and any competitive match should favor the Canadian. That’s because of his superior ability to win free points at the critical moments and his Grand Slam experience. Raonic 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Hasan: Two of the most promising young players on the tour have split their two previous career meetings. This one will indisputably be their most important to date. The 11th-ranked Raonic did not lose serve in his relatively straightforward 7-6(9), 6-4, 6-4 victory over Victor Hanescu after a shaky four-setter against Daniel Gimeno-Traver in which the Canadian dropped three service games. Comparably, after struggling through his four-set win over American Bradley Klahn in the opening round, Dimitrov put up an outstanding display to dismiss an in-form Yen-Hsun Lu in three entertaining sets. The world No. 22 is the more complete player of the two, but Raonic has the advantage of being very reliable on his serve–especially in tight situations. Dimitrov’s lack of physical fitness might just be the separating factor at the tail end of what promises to be sternly-contested clash. Raonic 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-7(6), 7-6(5), 6-4.

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(10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (18) Gilles Simon

Ricky: Simon is like Tommy Robredo; you can doubt him at your own risk. The guy was not even supposed to show up for the Aussie Open after being relegated to crutches due to a Kooyong Classic ankle injury. Simon has simply laughed in the face of such a notion with two straight five-set stunners–one over Daniel Brands 16-14 and another over Marin Cilic after trailing two sets to one. Tsonga leads the head-to-head series by a modest 5-3, but he has won five of their last six hard-court encounters. The higher-ranked Frenchman is a proven force Down Under, having finished runner-up in 2008 and in addition to three more quarterfinals (including one semifinal). Cooler conditions will help Simon make it competitive, but a more well-rested and confident Tsonga should eventually overpower his countryman. Tsonga 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(2), 6-3.

Hasan: Simon has defied odds in both of his five-set tussles in the previous two rounds. The intrepid Frenchman saved seven match points against Brands and perhaps more amazingly beat an even better opponent in Cilic. As laudable his heroics have been so far, the Simon’s journey may conclude in his next match when he takes on a compatriot who did not drop a set in his wins over Filippo Volandri and Thomaz Bellucci. Tsonga leads their head-to-head series and is playing solid tennis right now. His attacking game will be too much for an energy-sapped Simon, whose inspirational run will come to an end. Tsonga 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.

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(27) Benoit Paire vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

Ricky: This is not quite reaching Tomas Berdych vs. Kevin Anderson levels (Berdych 9-0), but it will be getting there if Paire loses again. The Frenchman is 0-4 lifetime vs. RBA and 1-8 in total sets. They just faced each other in Auckland and RBA cruised 6-3, 6-4. The question is, however, if this is the dawning of a new Paire. The Frenchman showed uncharacteristic desire and fight to battle back from two sets and a break down against up-and-coming Nick Kyrgios. With the same attitude, Paire would have a chance to capitalize on an opponent coming off an emotional, career-defining win (RBA upset Del Potro in five sets). The thinking here, though, is that a positively on-fire RBA will have too much confidence in both his own game and his ability to beat Paire. Bautista Agut 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(5).

Hasan: For a low-profile player it is onerously difficult to beat a top-five opponent at a Grand Slam, but it is perhaps even more challenging to replicate the high standard in the next match. It will be uncharted territory for Bautista after his blockbuster encounter against Del Potro in the second round. Stupendous shot-making bolstered by impressive fighting spirit allowed the Spaniard to clinch a 4-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 7-5 victory in nearly four hours. Paire’s previous match did not feature a high-profile opponent, but it still oozed drama. The Frenchman bounced back after finding himself two sets down against Krygios. Although the Australian teenager was afflicted with cramping in the final set, Paire did well to battle his own erratic game and stay composed to seal the match 6-7(5), 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-2, 6-2. Having beaten Paire comfortably in Auckland last week, Bautisa will like his chances to maintain his perfection in the head-to-head series. Bautista Agut 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(4).

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