Australian Open Day 5 picks, including Federer vs. Dimitrov and Berdych vs. Kyrgios

January 21, 2016 Ricky Match previews 141

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Chris de Waard of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Friday at the Australian Open. All eight seeds have advanced in the second quarter of the bracket–among them are Roger Federer and Grigor Dimitrov.

(3) Roger Federer vs. (27) Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: Federer is 4-0 in the head-to-head series and 8-1 in total sets. If there is any good news for Dimitrov, it’s that his lone set victory came earlier this month in Brisbane, where the Bulgarian dropped a quarterfinal clash 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4. But an under-the-weather Federer was not 100 percent–and it showed in a 6-4, 6-4 loss to Milos Raonic two days later. The 34-year-old Swiss is back in business now, coming off straight-set Australian Open beatdowns of Nikoloz Basilashvili and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dimitrov has been unspectacular in taking out Paolo Lorenzi and Marco Trungelliti. The underdog will raise his level to make this interesting, but Federer will seal the deal without too much trouble. Federer in 4; 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Chris: If the first two rounds are anything to go by, it’s clear that Federer indeed was suffering from the flu during his first tournament of the year in Brisbane. He looked really flat throughout the tournament and was an easy prey for Raonic in the final, who wasn’t playing all that well, himself. However, despite not being 100-percent fit, Federer still managed to beat Dimitrov in the semifinals over three tough sets. Now that Federer is looking sharp again, it’s hard to imagine Dimitrov suddenly threatening him. Best-case scenario for Dimitrov is taking Federer to three tight sets again. Federer in 3.

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(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (29) Nick Kyrgios

Ricky: In terms of both competitiveness and quality, this should be the best match of the third round–and maybe of the entire tournament. Both guys have a history of success Down Under. Berdych has made two consecutive trips to the semifinals and has not lost prior to the quarters since 2010. Kyrgios made a memorable run to the last eight in 2015, saving match points in an epic fourth-rounder against Andreas Seppi in the process. Even better now (definitely on the court and maybe off it, too), the 20-year-old Aussie is primed for a big run. Getting to play Berdych in the third round instead of one of the top 4 is a huge opportunity. Kyrgios should be able to capitalize on it amidst what will be a wild and wacky atmosphere. Kyrgios in 5; 7-6(4), 5-7, 3-6, 6-3, 9-7.
Kyrgios
Chris: By far the match of the day and probably even the match of the tournament so far. It might be one of those matches that will be decided by the crowd support. Berdych has fallen flat during big matches a lot in recent times, while Kyrgios is known to thrive under the spotlight–which will especially be a factor with everyone in the stadium rooting for Kyrgios. Tactically, Kyrgios will have to stay focussed and aggressive, especially trying to avoid lengthy backhand exchanges. I’m expecting magic. Kyrgios in 5.

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(19) Dominic Thiem vs. (15) David Goffin

Ricky: These two occasional doubles partners are becoming increasingly familiar foes on the singles court. They have faced each other five times–all since the summer of 2014. Goffin leads the head-to-head series 3-2, but Thiem has won two in a row (although one of the Austrian’s victories came via retirement). It would not be overly shocking to see Goffin struggle with physical problems once again. The Belgian dropped 10 of 11 games during a stretch in which he looked almost lifeless before suddenly righting the ship to beat Damir Dzumhur in four sets on Wednesday. Thiem has been outstanding in defeats of Leonardo Mayer and Nicolas Almagro. The ball-striking in this one is going to be phenomenal, but Goffin will eventually wilt under his opponent’s offensive onslaught. Thiem 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(3), 6-1.

Chris: This is one of those funny and overlooked rivalries. Over the course of 2014 and 2015, they faced each other six times–with Goffin taking the first four meetings and Thiem the last two. Goffin looked to be a bad matchup for Thiem, but in my eyes it was simply a case of different career trajectories. Thiem is only getting better and on his way to the top 10, while Goffin seems unlikely to advance further than his current place between 15 and 20 in the world. Thiem has his power game more under control these days and should be able to hit Goffin off the court, like he did during his comfortable 7-5, 6-2 victory over the Belgian in the Gstaad final last year. Thiem in 4.

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(24) Marin Cilic vs. (12) Roberto Bautista Agut

Ricky: One-slam wonders are often overrated. Cilic’s 2014 U.S. Open triumph has actually resulted in exactly the opposite. He consistently receives unfair criticism for failing to back up his major triumph; “fluke” is a word often thrown around. The truth, of course, is that Cilic was plagued by injury immediately thereafter and should not be so underrated. He almost finished in the top 10 last year despite missing basically all of the first three months with shoulder problems. Bautista Agut has been in absolute warrior mode this year. He captured the Auckland title last week and has won consecutive five-setters in Melbourne against Martin Klizan and Dusan Lajovic. Cilic got off to a slow start against Thiemo De Bakker but has been dominant ever since. The Croat is going to blast a worn-out Bautista Agut off the court. Cilic 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-2.
Cilic2
Chris: Bautista Agut struggled enormously to start the tournament, needing five sets against both Klizan and Lajovic. Cilic endured a similar struggle in the first round against Thiem De Bakker, coming within one point of going down 2-0 in sets, but recovered and hasn’t dropped a set since. These two guys played each other in the Moscow final in both 2014 and 2015, with Cilic winning 6-4 6-4 on both occasions. Taking all these factors into consideration, it’s hard to see Cilic facing a lot of resistance. Cilic in 3.

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65 Comments on Australian Open Day 5 picks, including Federer vs. Dimitrov and Berdych vs. Kyrgios

  3. Fed in 4. Come on Dimi get a set!
    Kyrgios in 4
    Goffin in 4 (original pick before Goffin’s v Dzumhur; it’s more likely Thiem in 3)
    Cilic in 3

    I’ve been underestimating Thiem a long time perhaps. We’ll see.

    Reply

  5. Fed in 3 sets over Dimi. I would love to think he could take a set, but I don’t think he’s there yet.

    I am still going with Berdy in 5 sets over Kyrgios.

    Thiem over Goffin in 4 sets.

    Cilic in 3 sets over RBA.

    Reply

        • ratcliff,

          Since when am I going to pass you in the bracket game! Don’t you have confidence in your pick? The last time I checked I was right behind you. 🙂

          Reply

          • Nny, I’m OCD – and have already checked everyone’s bracket. hehhe… in our pool.

            You also picked Rafa deep, like I did so both of us are ultimately toast. But that’s what we get for believing in Rafa, right. ’ems da breaks. You know your atp to be that good on your first bracket. Trust me!

            If you’ve looked at the game rules, you know that from here on out is what really matters. You can miss a lot of the early round picks and still come out great if you get the winner, runner-up, and semifinalists right. You have to do at least one more before deciding you hate it. But the ATP masters 1000 series is the bracket pool I miss. ATP doesn’t run it anymore but it was more fun than a GS, imo.

            Watching Kei and GGL.

      • nats,

        You and I had Sela beating Nando! 🙂

        It’s good to know that there is someone who think Berdy can win this match. I know that I am going against the majority here, but I am just going to stick with my gut feeling. If I am wrong, then so be it.

        Reply

  12. Genius backhand from Federer to give himself break points and he gets the break for 4-3. His backhand down the line has been very impressive so far this tournament.

    Reply

  16. Fed plays very quick tennis so his opponents will feel rushed. Its not easy to counter such quick tennis, you have to have quick reflexes, great movement, good anticipation and of course be able to do all those throughout the whole match.

    Dimi, Thiem, Goffin and Coric made me appreciate Rafa, Novak and Andy more. The trio could counter Fed’s quick tennis and not be overwhelmed by it.

    Reply

  19. Oops should’ve kept my original pick of RBA over Cilic from start of tourney. Cilic seemed in better form heading in but RBA is a tough out. Super impressive stuff from the Spaniard to bounce back from two five setters like that and beat Cilic in straights. Also kinda bummed to see Berdych won but boy does that help fed lol. Kyrgios would’ve been tougher QF than Berdych or RBA.

    Reply

    • Berdych is a tougher opponent for Fed. Berdych is playing well but Fed not so. Berdych is a more experienced and more consistent player than Kygrios is.

      Reply

          • why do you keep saying that fed is the only one with a chance ricky?? he hasn’t beaten nole at a slam in years while stan has beaten him in consecutive years. i would bet money on stan beating nole rather than fed in a slam..
            BO3 is a completely different story…

          • Absolutely. Fed isn’t going to beat Nole in a GS. Stan has a better chance of that, imo.
            Berdych might beat Fed. But Berdych has less chance than Fed does of beating Nole. Physically Berd is a beast and he should give Nole more trouble, but it’s between the ears for Berd – a mental block when facing him.

          • Stan has a chance against Nole but Big Berd has no chance against Fed.

            It’s all about belief in both cases.

          • Why couldn’t Fed beat Nole in GS? Yes, Novak won in last 3 GS, but they were by very tight margins. Fed had 20+ break points in last US open match, it really could’ve gone either way.
            Basing results on 3 (very close) matches is kind of absurd. And I’m probably the biggest Nole fan here.

          • laak i don’t think he has no chance but only a very small one given that this isn’t fed’s favourite surface and nole has been practically unbeatable here for years now. that wasn’t my point anyway, it was why ricky kept saying fed has the best chance to beat him when in my view it’s stan who has. stan’s beaten him 2 years in a row in slams afterall including here.

          • Why is beating Djokovic good?

            Hoping Nole finishes where Rafa has stagnated because the game has been changed to do so by the federazzi machine.

            #Break17
            #BEL18VE
            #NoleFam

          • Don’t think fed can beat djokovic. Both are evils for me as a nadal fan but yes djokovic has become the bigger evil now. Would hate to see fed winning no.18 lol

          • oh hi vr…just said that i also don’t see fed beating nole here….stan has way more chance if he gets through to the final..

          • “djokovic has become the bigger evil now. Would hate to see fed winning no.18 lol”

            Those are two opposing statements VR unless you would hate Nole breaking Fed’s slam count more than fed winning 18.

            For me, if Fed wins his 18th at 34.5 years, he will be GOAT again which will have rewarded the federazzi efforts to stymie Rafa by changing the game (rigged draws, cushy scheduling, new Rafa TV rule, ball change to reduce spin).

            For me, that’s the greater evil.

            Nole has the advantage IMO that once Fed retires, then tennis will chase the new story for someone to break the slam record.

            That’s a large part of why Roger is hanging around – to stay relevant, to win another slam, and to keep tennis about him.

            As long as we continue to qualify “Vamos Rafa” with “no matter what”, I say “Ajde Nole” while the cat’s away.

          • No Ricky.

            Rafa should be of no concerns to federazzi now. Only Djokovic.

            Fed has a decent chance against Nole. Laver is playing faster than previous years (by design).

            It’s BECAUSE I’m a Rafa fan that I want to see Nole finish where the rules, ball and draws were rigged to stop Rafa from catching Federer.

        • Berdy won? I was right! I went against the consensus and picked him! Too bad I couldn’t stay up until the wee hours to see the match!

          Reply

  20. Are people noticing the attempts to snub Djokovic or to damage his focus? Wonder why no one here is discussing about the repeated questions thrown at him on the match fixing etc. Some Italian newspaper actually said he took money to loose match in Paris 2007

    Also in todays match his name was put as Novack Djokovic on court :-)..Seriously??

    Also his recorded message was the only one cut out from Hewitts tribute played out on RLA

    Reply

    • Always.

      I also thought it was odd that no message from Nole in Hewitt’s tribute.

      I thought it was a snub from Nole.

      Never trust the federazzi. It knows no bounds.

      Reply

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