Ricky Dimon of the Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the two men’s singles matches on Wednesday at the Australian Open. The seeds held to form in the top half of the draw, with Novak Djokovic now battling Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka facing Kei Nishikori.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (8) Milos Raonic
Ricky: The good news for Raonic is that he is straight up playing the best tennis of his life. He finished runner-up at the Paris Masters last fall, did the same earlier this season in Brisbane, and he is now through to the Australian Open quarterfinals for the first time in his career–and into a slam quarterfinal for the third time. Unfortunately for the Canadian, he represents a classic case of winning matches he should win and losing matches he should lose. Raonic is 1-20 lifetime against the current top four players in the world, including 0-9 and 2-20 against the two best baseliners (Djokovic and Rafael Nadal). Djokovic is 4-0 versus Raonic and 10-1 sets, with the only such loss coming in a tiebreaker and three such wins by 6-2 margins. The world No. 1 was outstanding against another big server (Gilles Muller) on Monday, recording 47 winners to just 16 unforced errors. Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3, 7-6(6).
Steen: Both guys have been in great form leading up to this quarterfinal matchup. Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set and he’s had to play only one tiebreaker all tournament. Raonic, meanwhile, crushed all opposition through the first week then survived an up-and-down performance to beat Feliciano Lopez in five sets. I’m bullish on Raonic’s chances here, in that I see him taking a set. That being said, all of his breaks against Lopez (three in total) came on double-faults by the Spaniard and Raonic was more inconsistent than he had been in previous rounds. Djokovic just dealt with a “poor man’s Raonic” in Muller, avoiding tiebreakers against the in-form Luxembourgian. That performance bodes well for the Serb against the player who is the best of the big servers on tour right now. Raonic has improved his fitness so he should be able to hang in there in that department, but I don’t see Raonic generating enough break-point chances to get it done here. Djokovic 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.
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(4) Stan Wawrinka vs. (5) Kei Nishikori
Ricky: This has all the makings of a classic. Separated by one spot in the rankings, both men are in awesome form. Wawrinka kicked off his season with a title in Chennai, just as he did last year before winning the Australian Open. Nishikori, a semifinalist in Brisbane (lost a high-quality thriller to Raonic) has won six consecutive sets this fortnight by margins of 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, and 6-3. Perhaps just as happy as Wawrinka at the Happy Slam, this is by far Nishikori’s most consistent major (has reached at least the third round in five straight appearances). Moreover, their most recent head-to-head showdown also came in a slam quarterfinal and it resulted in one of 2014’s best matches. Nishikori prevailed 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 6-7(5), 6-4 on his way to the U.S. Open title match. Something will have to give on Wednesday, and it’s hard to say what that will be. I will give an ever-so-slight edge to the Swiss based on his experience with Australian Open five-set marathons. Wawrinka 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-6(3), 4-6, 9-7.
Steen: I was surprised to see that Nishikori is the favorite according to the oddsmakers going into this one. Yes, he beat Wawrinka at the U.S. Open but it was a competitive, five-set battle that was a coin-flip throughout. Wawrinka is the defending AO champion and he’s played quite well so far, albeit with some lapses against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez from two sets up. He disappointingly dropped the third set and gave GGL set-point chances to force a fifth set, as well, but the Swiss woke up in time and got himself through in four. Nishikori, meanwhile, walloped a tired David Ferrer in a match that should have been more competitive and he’s played like a top 5 player this fortnight. This could go either way, but I like the vibe Wawrinka has given off all tournament. A key for him, though, will be avoiding mental walkabouts in the middle of the match that he cannot afford if he’s going to win this. I feel like he’ll produce a better gameplan and more effective attack than Nishikori. Wawrinka 7-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
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