Ricky Dimon of the Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the two men’s singles matches on Wednesday at the Australian Open. The seeds held to form in the top half of the draw, with Novak Djokovic now battling Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka facing Kei Nishikori.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (8) Milos Raonic
Ricky: The good news for Raonic is that he is straight up playing the best tennis of his life. He finished runner-up at the Paris Masters last fall, did the same earlier this season in Brisbane, and he is now through to the Australian Open quarterfinals for the first time in his career–and into a slam quarterfinal for the third time. Unfortunately for the Canadian, he represents a classic case of winning matches he should win and losing matches he should lose. Raonic is 1-20 lifetime against the current top four players in the world, including 0-9 and 2-20 against the two best baseliners (Djokovic and Rafael Nadal). Djokovic is 4-0 versus Raonic and 10-1 sets, with the only such loss coming in a tiebreaker and three such wins by 6-2 margins. The world No. 1 was outstanding against another big server (Gilles Muller) on Monday, recording 47 winners to just 16 unforced errors. Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3, 7-6(6).
Steen: Both guys have been in great form leading up to this quarterfinal matchup. Djokovic hasn’t dropped a set and he’s had to play only one tiebreaker all tournament. Raonic, meanwhile, crushed all opposition through the first week then survived an up-and-down performance to beat Feliciano Lopez in five sets. I’m bullish on Raonic’s chances here, in that I see him taking a set. That being said, all of his breaks against Lopez (three in total) came on double-faults by the Spaniard and Raonic was more inconsistent than he had been in previous rounds. Djokovic just dealt with a “poor man’s Raonic” in Muller, avoiding tiebreakers against the in-form Luxembourgian. That performance bodes well for the Serb against the player who is the best of the big servers on tour right now. Raonic has improved his fitness so he should be able to hang in there in that department, but I don’t see Raonic generating enough break-point chances to get it done here. Djokovic 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.
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(4) Stan Wawrinka vs. (5) Kei Nishikori
Ricky: This has all the makings of a classic. Separated by one spot in the rankings, both men are in awesome form. Wawrinka kicked off his season with a title in Chennai, just as he did last year before winning the Australian Open. Nishikori, a semifinalist in Brisbane (lost a high-quality thriller to Raonic) has won six consecutive sets this fortnight by margins of 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, and 6-3. Perhaps just as happy as Wawrinka at the Happy Slam, this is by far Nishikori’s most consistent major (has reached at least the third round in five straight appearances). Moreover, their most recent head-to-head showdown also came in a slam quarterfinal and it resulted in one of 2014’s best matches. Nishikori prevailed 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 6-7(5), 6-4 on his way to the U.S. Open title match. Something will have to give on Wednesday, and it’s hard to say what that will be. I will give an ever-so-slight edge to the Swiss based on his experience with Australian Open five-set marathons. Wawrinka 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-6(3), 4-6, 9-7.
Steen: I was surprised to see that Nishikori is the favorite according to the oddsmakers going into this one. Yes, he beat Wawrinka at the U.S. Open but it was a competitive, five-set battle that was a coin-flip throughout. Wawrinka is the defending AO champion and he’s played quite well so far, albeit with some lapses against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez from two sets up. He disappointingly dropped the third set and gave GGL set-point chances to force a fifth set, as well, but the Swiss woke up in time and got himself through in four. Nishikori, meanwhile, walloped a tired David Ferrer in a match that should have been more competitive and he’s played like a top 5 player this fortnight. This could go either way, but I like the vibe Wawrinka has given off all tournament. A key for him, though, will be avoiding mental walkabouts in the middle of the match that he cannot afford if he’s going to win this. I feel like he’ll produce a better gameplan and more effective attack than Nishikori. Wawrinka 7-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
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Agree. A killer serve often seems to become a handicap – stultifies the development of an all-court game.
I’m also enjoying seeing how awkward Raonic looks when trying to make his shots.
Raonic can’t play tennis. That’s all there is to it.
I never doubted Nole’s win over Milos…Milos with his weaknesses will never be able to beat likes of Nole, Murray, Fed…those that can return well and attack his poor backhand…
he has improved but not enough to beat these fellows…
Wawa wining over Kei is not a surprise because it could have gone either way, but obviously Kei ran out of gas and Wawa was on fire. However Kei could have capitalized on the break he had in the third but failed to do so…but from what I see Kei will be the force during the American swing…he simply has the game for it…
Wawa vs Nole…sorry to disappoint believers here but I just don’t see Wawa beating this Novak who is playing well and since this is the AO surface that he loves as he can freely slide on it (unbelievable from Novak to do it so easily!) he does not even need to bring his A+ game for this Wawa…However, I have been wrong in my predictions and I hope I am being wrong about this one and I would love Wawa to bring his A game and make it a blockbuster…otherwise, Nole will just roll over in the finals as Serena will…
Berdy vs Murray…Berdy is playing I think his best tennis but it’s Andy we are talking about here…he is in the semis and I just don’t see him being fooled by Berdy as Rafa was…Andy will RETURN Berdy’s first serve unlike Rafa…Andy will RUN for those shots which were not as deep as someone would think (I watched the replay of Rafa’s match…Berdych really did nothing special!) and most importantly Andy will serve big unlike vulnerable serve and numerous DFs of our dear Rafa…so it makes it pretty obvious that Murray is not at all vulnerable as Rafa was (and Rafa still was able to make the third set somewhat competitive)…
natashao2013 says:
January 28, 2015 at 11:56 am
I never doubted Nole’s win over Milos…Milos with his weaknesses will never be able to beat likes of Nole, Murray, Fed…those that can return well and attack his poor backhand…
he has improved but not enough to beat these fellows…
Yet it’s Rafa who has a 5:0 lead over Nole and has never lost to the trio – Karlovic, Isner and Raonic. Murray has lost to Raonic twice and Federer has lost to him once.
yeah, but I am talking about current form, not the past…if you observed the past, Rafa would have never been beaten by Berdy no matter how good Berdy was…
So you think it’s over for Rafa?
A.Murray has lost to Raonic trice (twice on HC)
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=R975&oId=MC10
Last year Murray was 1:1 against Raonic, he hasn’t played Karlovic since 2012 so How does anyone know how he would fare against Karlovic now?
Raonic has beaten more times than Murray has beaten him – 3:2 to Raonic.
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I actually want Berdych to win the title. When you’ve worked hard for years, it’s good to have some reward.
i win the entire tennis channel racket bracket if Berdych beats Wawrinka for the title
nadline10 says:
January 28, 2015 at 12:52 pm
so you think Rafa’s current form will not improve?!
in my personal opinion, I am not giving any weight to these things like rafa is finished or his decline has begun or that he was not able to beat a player he has owned for so long.
My take: Rafa will have a very strong 2015. In my view there was nothing in his AO campaign to suggest he is on a decline. He will be back to playing some of the best aggressive tennis we have ever seen him play!
I cannot predict about his future injuries but I can comment about his chances of playing at the highest level once again. I do not think he was injured at all! it was just tiredness , fatigue and undue strain on his body. The guy was playing best of 5 matches after such a long time and his preparation was poor. Of course in order to avoid bad press rafa would not talk about any injury even if there were any. But I am convinced there was no injury.
Look for rafa to win both titles on clay , building strong momentum heading into IW.
Vamos champ, you will be back to your best.
Wawa vs Novak installment 3 at AO will have plenty of fireworks once again