A guest article takes a look at the current Australian Open odds for the men’s singles title. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are the clear favorites, but contenders like Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro could be intriguing plays.
The Australian Open is nearly upon us! Although the official tournament draws come out on the 10th, the betting odds for top players on the men’s side are already out there. And that means we now have a good place to start when previewing the tournament.
Using the backing odds each player has started with at Betfair online, we can get an early feel for which players the experts expect to thrive Down Under this year. So without further ado, here’s a tiered preview of favorites and betting odds in Melbourne.
The Favorites
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic, opening with 6/5 backing odds, is undeniably the top favorite. He’s won three straight titles in Melbourne and finished up 2013 red-hot on hard courts. For anyone but Rafael Nadal to beat him at the Aussie would be a shock.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal was arguably the best player on tour by the end of 2013. However, his 11/4 odds are only second strongest behind his Serbian counterpart. Still, it’s not hard to foresee a final between these two, and Nadal–per the ATP website–has won six of their last nine matches (though Djokovic took the last two).
The Contenders
Andy Murray
Despite continued brilliance, Murray just can’t quite elicit the confidence from fans, or oddsmakers, as Djokovic and Nadal. That said, his 11/1 odds to win are third best, and he certainly has a shot.
Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro had a bit of a frustrating 2013, always putting himself in good position and never quite finishing off tournament runs. At his best, he’s perhaps the only player aside from Roger Federer who can consistently hang with the Big 3. The problem is that his best only appears now and then. His odds to win are 16/1, good for fourth best.
Roger Federer
Federer is full of confidence heading into 2013, and if he truly has found a way to relax a bit he’ll be a threat in majors once more. That said, his U.S. Open collapse against Tommy Robredo was troubling and he’s also just lost a tune-up final to Lleyton Hewitt at the Brisbane International. If someone had told you a couple of years ago that there were 18/1 odds on Federer to win a major, it would have seemed like a goldmine of an opportunity. At this stage it feels about right, but we’d be foolish to count him out of contention.
The Dark Horses
Stanislas Wawrinka
Wawrinka showed serious ability in an inspired U.S. Open run, and he convinced more than a few that he’s capable of winning a major. He opens at 74/1.
Milos Raonic
Analysts have whiffed on big predictions for a lot of young players in recent years, but Raonic has flashed big-stage ability. There’s also the fact that his monstrous serve should play well in Melbourne. He has 169/1 backing odds.
Lleyton Hewitt
Hewitt is playing at home (with 179/1 odds), coming off a strong 2013 finish and an upset of Federer. A win would be miraculous, but it almost seems within his grasp.
^I almost shock myself for reading that I wrote that it may be that Novak beats Rafa once at RG…:-)
If that happens some time down the road when Rafa is clearly in decline and still playing, that’s one thing. If it happens before such a time… not that likely, and in that case, chapeau Novak. Novak is clearly not as strong on clay as Rafa, but is about the only one you can say just might do it once. Not a nice thought for the worshipers at the altar of the emperors with the new clothes.
I have no trouble stating that so far and very likely for good Rafa is the better player overall. That Novak is the toughest opponent for Rafa although Rafa has largely cut that toughness down … in ways Roger never did with his difficulties playing Rafa. There are now two flies in the oitment at that altar. A Spanish fly and a Serbian fly. The Spanish one must be the more annoying of the two, given how much the Serbian one is sometimes hyped up.
NIGHTMARE draw for Rafa
I just got home from an appointment and checked in to see Rafas’ draw. Holy cow. Tomic in the first round. It’s a horrible draw for Rafa.
^My placement of the comma on Rafa’s name must’ve been some sort of subliminal thinking. Hopefully there’ll be the equivalent of multiple Rafas to deal with this draw.
Rafa’s quarter is the group of death
– Brad Gilbert at 7:20:27 pm ET Jan 9th
who else is there?
let’s move draw discussion here – https://tenngrand.com/2014/01/10/australian-open-draw-revealed/
Oh Lord! Rafa has Fed,Murray, Tsonga and Delpo
vamosrafa,
With my tongue firmly in my cheek and coming from someone who obviously must take herself and other posters here far too seriously (LOL), I appreciated your discussion about Djoker or Fed being better on clay.
At one time I would have said Fed for sure. But Djoker has raised his level of play since 2011. Now he wasn’t able to sustain that level of play, but he is still a much better player than he was pre-2011. In my opinion, of course. I guess it’s not really fair to compare Djoker with Fed now. I guess if we compared them respectively in their prime, given that Djoker is still in his prime, it’s tough to say. Fed never was able to push Rafa at RG the way that Djoker has been able to in the last year or two.
One can only wonder what Fed might have done on clay had there not been a Rafa.
I appreciated your reasonable comments on the question as to whether Djoker will ever win a slam against Rafa. I have stated what I believe. I don’t want it to ever happen again, but I do think it will. I think that Djoker and Rafa are very closely matched. Rafa was the mentally stronger player up until 2011. Then he got that advantage back in 2012.
What I will say is that I think Rafa has been better at tweaking his game, working constantly to implement little changes here and there to keep him competitive and give him the advantage. In that regard, I think Rafa has been incredibly smart.
At this point in time I do think Rafa is definitely the better player.
Thank you for making your points in a fair, reasonable manner with respect for the opinions of others. I value that very much. 🙂
Sigh…………
I honestly cant think of a single Grand slam in the last 3 years that hasn’t given Djokovic the easiest of draws. At the very least the majority of his draws are significantly easier than Nadals.
might be time to do some investigation. would be interesting.
@Chris, you are echoing my sentiments. There was a time I put it down to the fact that Novak was the #1 hence the easy draws but this is too much……….
#IfItQuacksLikeADuck
Hewitt, Del Po, Tomic are in great form. Also as Ricky had pointed out earlier, meeting an unseeded up and coming player like Tomic in the first round and maybe Thomas in the second is more dangerous than meeting an unseeded established player ranked below 50.
Ferrer and Berdych are not.in good form.
Virtually the only threat to Novak in his draw is Wawa. I think if this kind of fixing of draws continues, I will give up watching tennis. I feel really disappointed after seeing this happening year after year. Last year, Rome and RG were rigged for Fed so obviously but it resulted in Fed’s half being a joke as Fed either got thrashed ( Rome) or did not make it to the semis (RG).
Rigging the draw for Novak won’t reduce his half to a joke because he can be counted upon to make it to the finals with an easy draw ( as was the case for Fed earlier).
Has Rafa commented on his draw? He must be sad but I am sure he will put a brave face on it. I pray that the draw opens up for him so he will arrive relatively fresh to the finals as happened in USO 2010. ( the draw was tough but opened up).
Rafa will not comment on the draw, he’s too classy for that. He will just get on with it, as well he should. I also hope the draw opens up for him. Tennis needs Rafa in the final.
Vamos!!
Hey Vegas, before you install Novak as the favourite for the next Slam, consider this:
“He has now lost at seven of the last eight majors,………………..”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20140121/novak-djokovic-stanislas-wawrinka-australian-open-upset/