A guest article takes a look at the current Australian Open odds for the men’s singles title. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are the clear favorites, but contenders like Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro could be intriguing plays.
The Australian Open is nearly upon us! Although the official tournament draws come out on the 10th, the betting odds for top players on the men’s side are already out there. And that means we now have a good place to start when previewing the tournament.
Using the backing odds each player has started with at Betfair online, we can get an early feel for which players the experts expect to thrive Down Under this year. So without further ado, here’s a tiered preview of favorites and betting odds in Melbourne.
The Favorites
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic, opening with 6/5 backing odds, is undeniably the top favorite. He’s won three straight titles in Melbourne and finished up 2013 red-hot on hard courts. For anyone but Rafael Nadal to beat him at the Aussie would be a shock.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal was arguably the best player on tour by the end of 2013. However, his 11/4 odds are only second strongest behind his Serbian counterpart. Still, it’s not hard to foresee a final between these two, and Nadal–per the ATP website–has won six of their last nine matches (though Djokovic took the last two).
The Contenders
Andy Murray
Despite continued brilliance, Murray just can’t quite elicit the confidence from fans, or oddsmakers, as Djokovic and Nadal. That said, his 11/1 odds to win are third best, and he certainly has a shot.
Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro had a bit of a frustrating 2013, always putting himself in good position and never quite finishing off tournament runs. At his best, he’s perhaps the only player aside from Roger Federer who can consistently hang with the Big 3. The problem is that his best only appears now and then. His odds to win are 16/1, good for fourth best.
Roger Federer
Federer is full of confidence heading into 2013, and if he truly has found a way to relax a bit he’ll be a threat in majors once more. That said, his U.S. Open collapse against Tommy Robredo was troubling and he’s also just lost a tune-up final to Lleyton Hewitt at the Brisbane International. If someone had told you a couple of years ago that there were 18/1 odds on Federer to win a major, it would have seemed like a goldmine of an opportunity. At this stage it feels about right, but we’d be foolish to count him out of contention.
The Dark Horses
Stanislas Wawrinka
Wawrinka showed serious ability in an inspired U.S. Open run, and he convinced more than a few that he’s capable of winning a major. He opens at 74/1.
Milos Raonic
Analysts have whiffed on big predictions for a lot of young players in recent years, but Raonic has flashed big-stage ability. There’s also the fact that his monstrous serve should play well in Melbourne. He has 169/1 backing odds.
Lleyton Hewitt
Hewitt is playing at home (with 179/1 odds), coming off a strong 2013 finish and an upset of Federer. A win would be miraculous, but it almost seems within his grasp.
Odds all seem about right to me, but if I were putting money down, it would have to be on Joker, and maybe Fed if I wanted to make some real money.
how about Wawrinka at 178 to 1 odds? wow.
that looks like some real value.
They would, wouldn’t they? Only in the eyes of someone with Djoker blinkers on. I don’t think Djoker is any more favourite than Nadal. OK, he beat Nadal in their last 2 h/c matches, but we all know that Rafa’s end of season performance last year was one of his best. He never really puts his heart and soul into it.
Djoker had to rescue his credibility and confidence having lost to Rafa in Montreal and the USO, on a surface that is supposed to be his (Djoker’s) strongest. He would have killed himself to get those wins after the USO, especially not having won a title since MC and losing his #1 ranking to Rafa who hadn’t played a full season and still has no points to defend in Australia. Rafa had nothing to prove, so I’m betting that he did not put in the full 9 yards in training for the end of season tournaments.
Picking Djoker because he won the last 3 AO is a nonsense anyway, because some didn’t use the same logic when they picked him for the FO which he has never won against the 7 times champion last year.
if people were backing Nadal, the odds would change. It’s clear people are backing Djokovic.
scootd says:
January 7, 2014 at 6:28 pm
Odds all seem about right to me, ……
They would, wouldn’t they?
they should!
We also have to remember that Rafa didn’t play in Australia last year and he nearly beat Djoko there in 2012.
This was Djoker’s score sheet at the AO last year. It doesn’t look like that of an out and out front runner to me:
Australia; 14.01.2013; GS; Outdoor: Hard; Draw: 128
Round Opponent Ranking Score
R128 Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) 60 W 6-2, 6-4, 7-5 Stats
R64 Ryan Harrison (USA) 62 W 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 Stats
R32 Radek Stepanek (CZE) 34 W 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 Stats
R16 Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) 17 W 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 Stats
Q Tomas Berdych (CZE) 6 W 6-1, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 Stats
S David Ferrer (ESP) 5 W 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 Stats
W Andy Murray (GBR) 3 W 6-7(2), 7-6(3), 6-3, 6-2
how not? very difficult opponents starting in the fourth round and his only tough match was against an absolutely ON-FIRE Wawrinka.
#dominance
Rafa takes Stan prisoner no matter how on-fire he is.
^^^Moreover, Rafa has played Stan 12 times and has never lost a set!
I thought that I already posted a comment with my thoughts on the odds here, but I don’t see it. That’s strange.
I have no problem with Djoker being the favorite here. But I also believe that Rafa is the co-favorite. The betting odds make him second. I am not going to quibble over that. What matters is what happens on the court. Rafa says that the knee is good and there’s no pain. We saw how well he was moving in his matches at Doha. He was looking very good, even though not yet in his best form. He’s only going to get even better.
I am anxious to see the draw. That should give us more to discuss. But I think that it could well be Djoker and Rafa in the final. I have said before that if Rafa does meet Djoker in the final, he is not losing. I stand by that.
Rafa is coming to Australia with the memory of that stinging loss to Novak in the final. Since then, Rafa has re-tooled his game and beaten Novak TWICE in Slams, the last being a comprehensive win at USOpen 2013. Rafa is not losing anymore to Novak in Slams, you can take that to the bank. Those with the best chance of taking Rafa out are the early round “nothing to lose big hitters”.
I have no quibble with Vegas, people can pick who they wish. Hell, they had Novak winning FO and Wimby and USOpen in 2013, we know how that turned out!
Let’s see who wilts in the Oz heat!
Vamos Rafa!
Francis Roig thinks Rafa and Novak are co-favourites for AO 2014 and says Rafa is playing his best tennis to-date. I believe him.
http://www.tennistopic.com/centre-court/entrevistas/francis-roig-nadal-tiene-nada-que-hacer-contra-djokovic-si-juega-especular/
RITB: ” Rafa is not losing any more to Novak in Slams, you can take that to the bank.”
I actually thought the same thing this morning. When Rafa is in the groove, Nole is always 2nd best and over 5 sets, Nole is not going to beat Rafa again. The 2011 jinx has left the buliding.
that argument makes no sense.
Djokovic is younger and healthier. There is no doubt he will beat Rafa many more times at slams.
Djokovic is a year younger than Rafa and he is not as good a player as Rafa. He did well in 201 but hasn’t been as good since, probably because he stopped using the egg.
Djokovic is a year younger and a lot more than a year younger in tennis life.
an what does “he is not as good a player as Rafa” mean?
Djokovic may be younger and healthier but he certainly does not have Rafa’s temperament. To understand this, watch the 4ht set of the USOpen 2013, and the 5th set of the FO 2013, they sum up the 2 men succintly. When the going gets tough, Rafa gets going. When the going gets tough, Novak takes a walk mentally. It’s the mental, not physical condition that separates the 2 and Rafa wins on that score hands down. Djokovic knows this, why else would he be chopping and changing coaches like he is doing?
then why did Rafa miss the backhand at 30-15 in the 5th set of the 2012 Australian Open and why did Djokovic win after 6 hours of play?
thank you for the link to the interesting interview with Roig.
The one surprise in it (for me) was that Rafa is obsessed with matching Roger’s slam count. I supposed it does make sense he would be, given how ambitious he’s been since even before the start of his professional career.
yeah that is a bit surprising.
surely it’s nothing like Tiger Woods’ obsession with Jack Nicklaus’ golf record, though.
perhaps what it surprising about it is that it is being mentioned publicly. Rafa never mentioned anything of the sort in any interviews or quotes I’ve read. That Rafa is that ambitious is not surprising.
That he thinks he just might have a chance to reach 17… any time between a year ago and the previous months’ that would have sounded pretty unrealistic. Not so much anymore.
That he will lift at least two or three more slam trophies, knees permitting, seems quite likely now, knees permitting. At the moment it seems the knees will be permitting for quite a while this year at least.
Much hand-wringing will ensue.
Roig specifically says that Rafa is NOT obsessed with reaching 17. “No es una obsesion para Nadal,” just that it’s possibly an attainable goal.
this sounds more accurate
yes, sounds more accurate. I had read the interview via Google’s translation 🙂
^ pretend I didn’t write ‘at least’. That he will lift 2 or 3 more…. seems realistic.
He might lift more but that is getting into the less likely territory. Not writing off Rafa by any means, of course.
he should win 2 more Frenches. The question is if he can win 2 more elsewhere.
Not “if”, imo, but rather “where and when”.
well if it’s not a question of “if,” then please do tell us now where and when!!!!
Don’t know, sorry – will just have to just wait and see, like everyone else. But there lies precisely the fun of it all, no?
absolutely yes.
I’m just saying if it is a known certainty that Rafa will win 2 more slams outside of the French, then we should know WHERE and WHEN he is going to win them!
Reblogged this on Tennis Abides.
@Ricky, I should have been clearer and said Rafa ain’t losing a Slam match to Novak anymore since Australian Open 2012. No point speculating why Rafa missed that BH, he lost, full stop. The important point is he has not lost a Slam match to Novak since, and it’s staying like that until proven otherwise……
well Novak hasn’t lost a slam match to Rafa since the U.S. Open, and it’s staying like that until proven otherwise.
@Ricky, why are you being so cantankerous today? Or is it fear that is making you thus, fear that even you can see the writing on the wall: the Rafa juggernaut’s approach?
Novak hasn’t lost a Slam to Rafa since the USOpen because there hasn’t been a Slam since, duh!
Rafa’s goign to beat Novak at AO 2014 and put to rest all talk of “Novak’s best is better than Rafa’s best”.
Let the games begin!
i’d like to say it’s for the sake of argument, but mainly it’s simply because you guys are wrong and I’m trying to help.
I understand where Ricky is coming from regarding Djoker. It’s foolish to state unequivocally that Djoker will never beat Rafa in a slam again. You never say never. Also, Ricky makes a valid point that Djoker turned pro two years after Rafa and has less mileage. So even though he is only a year younger, he hasn’t played as long and also doesn’t have any real injury issues that could hamper him. I also believe that Djoker is extremely talented. His problem in the past was that he didn’t have it between the ears.
I give Djoker credit for training and working to get fitter and also becoming mentally stronger. For whatever reason in 2013, there were chinks in the armor when it came mental strength in key moments of matches. However, I am not assuming that this means Djoker can’t regain his mental strength.
Rafa managed to find the answers after losing seven straight matches to Djoker, including three slam finals. Rafa seemed to lose his mental strength in 2011. Something was off with him that year. But he came out in 2012 with renewed passion and played some outstanding tennis to get to the final of the 2012 AO.
Where I don’t agree with Ricky is when it comes to what happened in that final. The key in that match was that Rafa managed to stay competitive. He fought back in the fourth set to tie it up. He had not been able to do that in his previous six losses. In this match, Rafa found the answer to beating Djoker. He also showed that old mental toughness that was missing in 2011. It’s true that Rafa missed that key backhand when he was up a break and two games from winning. That’s how matches are won and lost. But he put himself in a position to win the match and that was not the case in his prior six losses.
If Rafa could come that close in 2012, then he certainly has a great shot now when he is coming off his greatest year, healthy and showing some good form in Doha. That 2012 AO was a turning point, because since then Rafa was able to dominate. Now we will have to see if Djoker can turn it around.
I think Rafa and Djoker have each had their ups and downs in their rivalry. The truth is that Djoker has the game to push Rafa and challenge him in a way that no one else can. The good news for Rafa fans is that he loves to rise to this challenge.
In Rafa’s career, including in early years when he struggled on grass (for a while) and on hardcourt (longer), only Novak has deeply troubled Rafa, at least in terms of who won the match, and mostly only in _some_ of the recent years, primarily in 2011. Since 2011 they have been more or less each other’s equal, and this even with Rafa recovered from that major injury break.
Just these two facts by themselves are an absolutely measure of Rafa’s career. That there has been no one else. And that after Novak got the better of Rafa, and for an entire year, Rafa was able to work out how to answer all of Novak’s challenges.
If there are no major injuries this year it will be interesting to look back at 2014 when we’ll review how their rivarly has played out this third year post-2011.
“………… And that after Novak got the better of Rafa, and for an entire year, Rafa was able to work out how to answer all of Novak’s challenges.”
Well, some people are grasping at Novak’s 2013 Fall run as evidence of his reposte to Rafa. I fear for their nails………………and finger-tip skin……
do any of you think Djoker will ever win the French Open?
Colour me foolish then…..I said it and I will say it again: Novak’s not beating Rafa in a Slam again. I have a bearer cheque all signed up ready to be cashed on that………..
Roll on Oz!
^ absolutely _impressive_ measure
@Ricky, if I am wrong I will happily own up to my mistake but I have a feeling, a very good feeling on this……………….2014 is the year Rafa silences all doubt! Pity @Twingey is not around to vouch for my predictive powers……….
Please don’t do a @Twinge and disappear @Ricky when my “feeling” becomes reality……
2013 was the year Rafa silenced a WHOLE LOT of doubt.
Everyone thinks Rafa is going to have a good year in 2014. I just think Djokovic will have an even better one.
There is no reason to suppose Novak will have a better year than Rafa unless you are basing yourself on Novak’s fall run which is not a good predictor.. Sorry Rick, I expected more rationality from you. You have a blind belief that Nole is better. I remember you predicted a Nole victory on clay in 2012 at Monte Carlo simply because Nole had 2 recent victories against Rafa on clay. How anxious you seem to be to write off Rafa at the slightest show of vulnerability.
I remember last year you said Rafa is very bad on hard courts. You then claimed you meant compared to clay. If so, then how come you predicted Nole win on clay? So Nole is very good on both clay and hardcourt, Rafa is bad on hard court as compared to his clay court prowess but Nole is better than Rafa on clay despite Rafa’s outstanding record!!!!! Rafa has beaten Nole in the last 3 slams they met but still according to you Nole is better!
Anyway, nothing is lost by predictions made by writers. The winner would be determined on the court and based on present form and Rafa’s great 2013, Rafa is the favorite ( I clarify favorite means most likely to win and not the bookies choice)
no
I am not someone who is grasping at Djoker’s fall run as evidence of anything. I am just not willing to count him out totally. I think he’s still capable of winning slams.. I am not going to pretend that he’s going away. I also believe that Rafa respects him as a great rival and won’t take anything for granted.
I don’t want Djoker to beat Rafa in a slam again, but I am not going to speak in terms of absolutes and say that it will never happen again. I have learned not to do that after watching tennis my whole life.
I don’t have to back up my thoughts with anything. However, that doesn’t make me any less certain. I also don’t think Rafa has to do anything to silence any doubts. There will always be those who refuse to acknowledge Rafa’s greatness. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t great. It’s their own hatred and blindness. Their problem, not mine.
I do think that Rafa will have a great year. Watching him at Doha gives me no reason to think otherwise. I am not focused on Djoker. However, I think that he will come out determined to have a better year than 2013. Whether that happens, we will just have to wait and see. I am just not willing to dismiss him out of hand.
To answer Ricky’s question, I do think Djoker will win the French Open.. But it may well be after Rafa retires!
Nole and Rafa are pretty close to each other in terms of being able to make finals, and when they play each other (clay being an exception, grass, well, … you know).
They might be close to each other in results this year, or not so much… depends on a few smaller things. By smaller I mean as compared to their huge strengths, the strengths that so far continue to put them far ahead of all, even Andy until we see just how much stronger Andy might be this year.
It seems the majority of people commentating and writing have an easier time exagerating Nole`s chances next year a bit and downplaying Rafa`s a bit.
“It seems the majority of people commentating and writing have an easier time exagerating Nole`s chances next year a bit and downplaying Rafa`s a bit.”
Bullseye @Chloro!
#Conspiracy
Rafa is in the business of confounding the sceptics…………….love it.
@ritb
for some it may be the case of purposely writing not what they see but what they decide to write instead – so a bit of a conspiracy.
Then for many others it seems to be a partial loss of objectivity due to the prevailing views that started long ago. Starting with the near-deification of the little goatie just before Rafa broke on the big stage and ever since, augmented with the downplaying of the one (Spanish) fly in the ointment. In recent years augmented with a continued downplaying of Rafa vs Nole and talking up Nole a bit too much.
Rafa is the player of the current generation’s who the majority feels the greatest need to downplay a bit :-).
Everything will play out on the court. Odds and predictions don’t mean much.
Ricky, I think you just jinxed Djoker for the year. Thank you! 😀
RITB, hush!
@JCKNY,
Hahaha! I wish I could hush up, I am giddy with excitement! Our boy’s gonna do something special this year and guess what, even ardent Fedfans like Chris Evert are saying so!
“In saying that, I think this will be the year where Nadal will get a lot of press, a lot of attention. I think he’s going to be paid his dues because he has been so kind of quietly in the background and let Roger have all the fanfare. He’ll get such an appreciation from everybody because you’re right, his record is phenomenal, especially against Roger. I just think, Nadal, it’s going to be his year.”
http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2014/01/espn-australian-open-conference-call-darren-cahill-chris-evert/
Do I think Novak is ever going to win FO? Yes he will, just not when Rafa’s still paying.
^^^”playing”, not paying
Ricky Dimon says:
January 8, 2014 at 5:58 pm
………and what does “he is not as good a player as Rafa” mean?
It means that at 27, Rafa has 61 titles including 13 slams and 26 M1000s, Novak is not even close. It means that Rafa was #2 at the age of 19 and has held the top 2 rankings for close on 10 years except in 2012 when he only played half a season. It means that Rafa has totally dominated clay since he was a teenager, whilst Novak is not dominant on any surface. It means that Rafa has owned the supposed GOAT from the age of 17 with 5 years difference in their age.
At 26 1/2, Novak only has 41 titles including just 6 slams and 16 M1000s.
Should I go on? Rafa is the ONLY player in history to have won a slam 8 times, he is also the ONLY player in history to have won 3 different titles 8 times. Rafa has an Olympic Gold mdal and the Golden Slam and he has won 3 different slams at least twice.
Rafa is the ONLY player to have a positive h2h against the current top 4 in the world in the world and all current ATP players, barring Davydenko where their h2h is just 5:6 to Davy.
i know the stats good and well. I want to know how tactically Nadal is an undisputed better tennis player than Djokovic.
Ricky, here is this for starters:
‘Rafael Nadal Is the Leonardo da Vinci of Tennis’
It’s usually Roger Federer who gets compared to intellectual heroes, but a remark by John McEnroe rightly appreciated that Nadal’s best, most underrated weapon is his brain.
Ashley Fetters Sep 5 2013, 12:20 PM ET
Last night in New York, a former U.S. Open tennis champion dismantled an opponent 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of this year’s event. It was yet another display of the player’s unparalleled dominance, and as the victor celebrated, TV commentator and retired tennis legend John McEnroe remarked, “What we’re seeing here, this guy is the Leonardo da Vinci—the Albert Einstein—of tennis.”
Unlike Federer, Nadal has more frequently conjured up images of sweaty, fast-and-loose iconoclasm and brute force among sports journalists. In the years since his inaugural French Open victory in 2005, and most noticeably in the first few years after, he drew comparisons to pirates, cavemen, bulldogs, bulls, bulls, more bulls, bulls in china shops, bulls in Federer’s china shop, and, um, “Apaches.”
So I wondered at first if McEnroe had somehow forgotten which player he’d just watched, or if he’d maybe meant Leonardo the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle (same headwrap!). But his offhand remark actually sheds light on a truth about Nadal that’s been somewhat under-appreciated until recently: He may not be the magical athlete-artist Federer is (or—gulp—was), but he’s the Leonardo da Vinci of the sport in that he’s a whiz kid—a tennis brainiac.
Leonardo da Vinci, after all, was a scientist, too, and an engineer. Da Vinci had an intuitive comprehension of how things worked—and the same could be said of Nadal.
Last night, McEnroe instructed all the junior players watching the broadcast to closely observe Nadal’s play because, by subtly identifying his opponent’s movement patterns and adjusting and re-adjusting his service motion and returns accordingly, he was putting on what McEnroe called “a clinic” in shot placement. (The importance of being able to analyze and respond to an opponent’s play during a match shouldn’t be underestimated: Earlier this week, as The New York Times’ Greg MacDonald noted, Federer made his earliest exit from a Grand Slam in 10 years because he failed to readjust his game plan against Tommy Robredo in the fourth round.)
Gilbert and McEnroe also made mention last night of a 2011 New York Times video feature that delved into the physics of why Rafael Nadal’s lethal lefty forehand—sometimes affectionately known as the “fearhand”—causes so much trouble for his opponents.
The answer? Topspin. Nadal’s extreme grip on the racquet results in a rate of topspin twice what Andre Agassi’s and Pete Sampras’s were when they played. In layman’s terms, if you’re on the other side of the net when a tennis ball comes hurtling through the air spinning as quickly as a Rafael Nadal forehand shot spins, it will bounce in ways you did not expect a tennis ball to bounce, especially on clay—even if you’re used to playing guys who play like Agassi and Sampras. And your attempt to hit it back with control will likely fail. This isn’t just a quirk of Nadal’s game; rather, it’s a willful mastery of a strange, somewhat unnatural, and acutely effective technique.
Gilbert and McEnroe (and others) have also repeatedly called Nadal the “best problem-solver in the game.” This summer in particular, analysts like MacDonald have picked up on the small but hugely effective tweaks Nadal and his coach have made to get Nadal back to the top of the ATP tour:
The changes Nadal made to close the gap on Djokovic were subtle, ranging from the psychological to the technical to the tactical. … vary the serve more; go down the line more on both sides, but especially the backhand; do not rally with neutral balls, but hit out with aggression; play defence relentlessly. … Two years ago, Djokovic owned Nadal. Now, after overcoming an injury to his knee and a seven-month layoff, Nadal seems to have solved the riddle of his most troubling nemesis.
Nadal has been one of the shrewdest players in professional tennis for a while now, and these days, more fans and analysts have begun to publicly appreciate that—as illustrated by remarks like John McEnroe’s. Maybe da Vinci’s most famous achievements—his artistic ones—still make “the Leonardo da Vinci of tennis” a more suitable title for Nadal’s more graceful counterpart, but it’s a pleasant surprise to see Nadal’s success rightly attributed to both brains and brawn.
http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2013/09/rafael-nadal-is-the-leonardo-da-vinci-of-tennis/279383/
Ricky, is this convincing enough? If not, which part of it do you not agree with?
@Ricky, your sympathies for Djokovic are well documented. Why, you are the same Ricky who at one time said, until Rafa beats Novak, you are picking Novak. Why then can you not apply the same logic to Rafa and say, until Novak beats Rafa at a Slam I am picking Rafa? Rafa has beaten Novak at the last 2 Slams, no? I’ll tell you why: because you believe Novak is better than Rafa. Nothing wrong in believing such, you are not the only one. Just do not expect me, and other Rafans, to buy into your beliefs. We happen to believe, all else being equal, Rafa beats Novak ON ANY SURFACE! And the stats back that up…….
As far as Rafa is concerned, I have ZERO doubt, ZERO, my man is the best out there, bar none.
Vamos!!
Please don’t discount Andy for the WHOLE of 2014!.
*eye roll*
haha well said. literally NOBODY is talking about him.
not just here. anywhere.
In just about every comment I’ve posted here these last few weeks about 2014 I’ve been mentioning Andy. I don’t think I’m the only one.
deucy,
Thank you for saying this! Don’t worry, I have no intention of discounting Andy for all of 2014. I am glad to see him back and hope that he can now play completely pain free.
Don’t worry. He has not been forgotten. I mentioned him in my predictions for this year! 🙂
@deucy, I am not discounting Muzza for 2014 but I’ll be honest, I think he has chosen the wrong comeback strategy. He should have taken a leaf out of Rafa’s playbook and comeback at a non-descript South American tournament away from prying eyes, build up slowly, rankings be damned. Coming back at AO 2014 heaps too much pressure on him and there is no telling how that will affect him should he not meet everyone’s expectations.
Someone at tennis.com put it like this, and I buy this argument: Muzza is different from Rafa in that Muzza needs to be 100% (or close thereof) to play and be super efficient. Rafa, otoh, can play and be efficient even if he is not 100% physically (just see his 2013). Back surgery is no joke, he needs to take it easy on himself and build up slowly………
For selfish reasons, I want him fit and ready to pick up the Djoker-slack!
#BabySteps
there is no reason for Murray to come back at a clay-court tournament. Maybe Delray Beach or Memphis or something like that.
That being said, there is also no reason to skip the Australian Open if he is 100 percent physically (even if not in 100 percent shape due to rust).
How about this Ricky, said after Rafa beat Novak in the FO Semi Final last year:
“During the match, the thought that kept coming to my mind was that I was watching a genius. It’s like Chopin who was born to compose music. Nadal was born to win tennis matches.” — Wojtek Fibak, Novak Djokovic’s coaching consultant
phenomenal quote. not sure what the point is (as I am unconcerned with any opinion of Wojtek Fibak), but phenomenal quote.
Ricky, your debating stance isn’t very convincing. You have not yet made a single point as to why you don’t think Rafa is a better and more accomplished player than Novak, not a single one. It’s easy to disagree with a point of view, but you should also back it up with some evidence.
what’s the point? It’s pretty obvious that we are never going to agree regardless of the evidence.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jan/08/bernard-tomic-australian-open-melbourne
Tomic backing Rafa….;)
@Rick
Expect Andy likes it that way….
Seeded 4 at AO. Que sera.
Ricky Dimon says:
January 8, 2014 at 8:55 pm
“well Novak hasn’t lost a slam match to Rafa since the U.S. Open, and it’s staying like that until proven otherwise.”
Similarly, Novak hasn’t won a slam match against Rafa since AO 2012!!!!!!!!!! It’s also staying like that until proven otherwise.
The issue for me isn’t that this is a contest between Rafa and Djoker. Why does one have to be praised at the expense of the other? I absolutely do not get it! Why can’t we respect both of them?
If Ricky wants to think that Djoker is better or more accomplished or whatever he thinks, then so be it. What’s the big deal? I know that Rafa fans hated it when some Fed fans would always trumpet his accomplishment and trot out his resume and use it to trash Rafa. Do we have to do the same thing with Rafa and Djoker?
Rafa’s accomplishments and achievements are in the record books. Nobody can take them away from him. They are there for everyone to see. His place in history is already assured. So why the need to be so defensive? Rafa will only add to his legacy as he continues to play. He will make more history. I choose to celebrate that while not engaging in the tearing down or diminishing of any other player.
I don’t see anyone being defensive here, just Rafans stumping for their man. Ricky does not share our belief in him, that is okay, all good, it’s called differences of opinion.
We Rafans are simply arguing our guy’s corner with logic and facts and we are quite okay with others doing the same for their guys. I absolutely do not accept that Rafans should feel guilty about doing so. When I say Rafa is better than Djokovic it does not mean I do not respect Djokovic. If someone wants to infer that, that is their business. I am certainly not going to praise Djokovic out of guilt. Djokovic has plenty of well-meaning fans who can argue his corner better, and more sincerely, than I can.
You don’t have exclusive ownership of the Rafa fan club. I also never said that Rafa fans should feel guilty about arguing his corner. That’s not what I said. I also did not say that Rafa fans should praise Djoker out of guilt. I also reject the notion that I am doing so. I don’t go around praising him. I just give him credit for his skill as a tennis player and am not going to discount him or trash his chances.
Djoker may have plenty of well meaning fans, but I don’t see them here standing up for him. It’s not surprising.
Hit it Destiny’s Child!:
Say my name, say my name……………………
@RafaIsTheBest
The forecast temps for Melbourne next week are disconcerting, I hope Team Rafa is well prepared for these un-Godly high temps:
https://twitter.com/HolterMedia/status/421146438983483392/photo/1
Week 1 is going to be veeeeeery interesting, who will survive?
Rafa will wear own just about anyone in especially hot temperatures.
Bad news for guys like Isner.
If Izzy serves as well as he just did against Khols, he will hold his own:
RT @SharkoTennis: “.@JohnIsner serving vs @KohliATP : 83% 1st srv pct. & won 82% 1st srv pts (2nd time in career over 80% in both).”
yeah, against Bautista Agut in the Auckland semifinals.
Will be much harder to do over 5 sets (especially in those conditions).
I said that Nole is not as good a player as Rafa is and
Ricky Dimon says:
January 8, 2014 at 5:58 pm
………and what does “he is not as good a player as Rafa” mean?
So I’m only responding to him and supporting what I said. It’s Ricky who can’t substantiate what he said.
Ricky Dimon says:
January 9, 2014 at 7:42 am
what’s the point? It’s pretty obvious that we are never going to agree regardless of the evidence.
I rest my case.
Hahaha! @nadline, it seems you and I are just saying what even Federistas out there are saying:
Peter Bodo, “Rafa’s got his foot on Djokovic’s throat in Slams”
Ed McGrogan, “Until proven otherwise, Nadal has the measure of Djokovic in Slams”
http://www.tennis.com/photos-video/2014/01/video-novak-djokovics-pivotal-2014-season/50181/
the opposite of anything Bodo says is generally true
^^^On that, I agree with u Ricky!
#BodoIsASnake
RT @hbryant42: “Odd Nadal is criticized for winning 61.5 pct of his titles at RG when four of Djokovic’s six titles have come from AO. Must be a clay thing.”
i.e. 67% of Djokovic’s Slams are from one Slam, 83% are from one surface.
Shhhhh, Howard, you’re not supposed to let the cat out of the bag…………..you know, the one that is wishing for Rafa to crash and burn for his audacity to challenge the so-called GOAT. Time to burnish the Djokovic myths now that Rafa is REALLY threatening GOAT-dom:
Djokovic will dominate 2014;
Djokovic is a better player than Rafa;
Djokovic is a more complete player than Rafa;
Djokovic will win AO 2014, and FO 2014, and Wimbledon 2014, and USOpen 2014……
#GiveMeABreak
RT @glen_george: “Just the way it is. I think Rafa’s haters and detractors multiply as he wins, so I am hoping for more this year :)”
Roger that!
Pun fully intended……………
nadline and RITB, you are making me nervous.
@holdserve19, sorry for making you nervous but for me, this is Rafa’s time to shine, and shine he will. He has been in the background for so long it is time for him to take his rightful place……..in the foreground!
And for too long, we Rafans have been happy, just like Rafa, to stay in the background, not “rock the boat” blah, blah, blah. Well, enough. It is time to toot Rafa’s horn. Fedfans tooted Fed’s horn when he was The Man and now we are supposed to sit back and let some people sneak in Djoko as The Man??? No sirree………
Of course if none of my Rafa-reign predictions pan out I will have a massive egg on my face but who cares???
Vamos!!
ritb,
You know what, no one is asking you or any other Rafa fans to stay in the background and not “rock the boat”, blah, blah, blah. You have tooted Rafa’s horn all you like, so please don’t pretend that anyone here is trying or asking you to stop. That’s not accurate in any way. This site is almost all Rafa fans, so it’s not like there is anybody to argue with you about it.
Fed fans did a lot more than toot his horn when he was on top. And you know it. They engaged in the most vicious slander and character assassination of Rafa and they are still doing it. We all know what they said, the outright accusations of doping, faking injuries, being a one surface clay courter and on and on and on. I despised it and still do.
My point is that we might learn from them and not do the same thing. I am all for talking about Rafa’s accomplishments and no other Rafa fan is going to try to make it out that I feel any differently. I just don’t need to put down his rivals. Djoker has been the #1 player for the better part of the last three years. That deserves respect. He only dominated in 2011. Rafa has come back strong and taken back the #1 ranking. It’s been a wonderful run and I expect it to continue into 2014. I already said that I am feeling great about his chances in the AO. I also feel great about his chances for the rest of the year.
I can support Rafa in my own way. That does not make me in any way less of a Rafa fan. That is a point that I wish to make perfectly clear.
It’s like when some Djoker fans were bragging about how Rafa could never beat him on hard courts again. There was that guy Danny Morris on tennis-x, trashing Murray’s chances against Djoker in the final at Wimbledon. He ran off his mouth endlessly, making absurd claims that Djoker was certain to win, no doubt about it, end of story. He trashed Andy and his fans and of course Rafa and his fans. As we all recall, this person had a few user names on TT, like Fedkovic23, etc.
When Djoker lost, this guy disappeared. Now I do not for one minute think that anyone here is even remotely like that guy. He wasn’t even a real Djoker fan. But it’s not a bad thing to be reminded that when you speak in terms of absolutes and run down the other guy, you can end up looking somewhat foolish.
I have gone as far as I am prepared to go with my thoughts about the AO. I said that I like Rafa’s chances. I also said that if he gets to the final and meets Djoker, this time he will not lose.
Hahahaha! Let the games begin. This has got to be a first: ALL the tennis.com Editors (Bodo, Tignor, McGrogan, Pagliaro) have picked Novak to win AO 2014.
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/01/2014-australian-open-preview-editors-picks/50179/
I love it: no pressure on Rafa whatsoever………………
OK, here are my predictions for 2014
Rafa at AO and FO (FO in straight sets)
Andy at Wimbly.
Rafa/Novak/Andy at USO.
At USO, a lot will depend on in whose half Andy and Del Potro fall.
Rafa year end no. 1.
Djokovic to be ITF’s champ because he was runner up everywhere in 2014.
Djoker will have another insane fall run and all pundits will wring their hands say poor Djoko he had umpteen issues/distractions in the meat of the season, maybe his upcoming marriage, maybe a scratch on his shoulder, the death of his neighbor’s dog or cat or whatever. But Djoker will discover his A form in the fall and when Djoker does that he is invincible. So on to 2015 and Sean (tennis-x) will predict Del Potro as year end no. 1 because he reached the semifinal of one slam and gave everybody a tough time everywhere else,
Finally history will record Rafa as the greatest player ever to lift a tennis racket and how for long his humility obscured his greatness. Imagine if it had been Djoker beating Fed on all grand slam surfaces. Without even having a winning h2h against Rafa, he is touted by pundits as better than Rafa because he beat Rafa at 3 consecutive slams although after that he has lost in all the three slams he met Rafa..
1. Novak
2. Rafa
2. Roger
Expect very fast low bounce courts in Melbourne.
Let’s put Ferru in Rafa’s half and Fed in Ferru’s qtr.
Let’s put Delpo, Izzy and Raonic plus one other giant in Rafa’s qtr.
Let’s put Muzza in Nole’s half and Wawa in Nole’s qtr.
We will see no?
^^^
3. Roger
Likely to see Gulby in Rafa’s qtr also.
All else being equal, I’d pick Rafa over Nole for AO however see above.
Nole will win a FO IMO probably by not having to beat Rafa. Can he beat Rafa at the FO? Possibly yes, Probably no.
Even though they are just a year apart, Rafa has significantly more majors than Nole 13-6. He’s beaten Nole in the last three majors that they’ve met. He has 61 titles to Nole’s 41. He has shown more ability to continuously improve and adapt his game. He has a winning record against all but two active players (and only by a single match deficit in each case).
Simply put, the data shows Rafa is a better player than Nole. The technical ability argument is a subjective one and Ricky knows this.
Ricky is primarily playing devil’s advocate because posters on his site are 95% Rafans.
#NotRocketScience
holdserve,
no need to be nervous. Our wishes or expectations have zip influence. Jinxing from us is impossible. Even from ricky, alas :-).
hawkeye,
based on what, low bounce? weather? last year?
I think Rafa will get the tougher draw and that the courts will play very fast and low bounce.
Hs anyone heard player feedback on the speed on the Melbourne courts? This is all I have seen so far from Rafa and it’s about the wearther:
Rafael Nadal via LINE: It’s very hot in Melbourne Empieza a hacer calor en Melbourne…
If the court speed was unfavourable I think we would have seen/heard something about it from the Spanish press………….
All the Aussie lead up tournaments have been significantly faster/lower bounce.
^^what about the Melbourne courts @hawkeye63, that’s what I want to know? Brisbane and Sydney being fast, low bounce doesn’t not mean Melbourne is the same.
I assume we would already know if there was any difference between the actual AO court surface from last year to this one.
@Ricky January 9, 2014 at 4:06 pm;
My sentiments exactly……………….
one of you posted a link a few days ago about the AO surface speed being the same as last year
if the surface material has not been changed from last year then the main remaining factor that could make a difference would be the weather: temperature and humidity, no?
draw predictions:
Round of 16:
Nadal vs. Nishikori
Djokovic vs. Isner
Ferrer vs. Fognini
Murray vs. Youzhny
Del Potro vs. Tsonga
Federer vs. Haas
Berdych vs. Gasquet
Wawrinka vs. Raonic
Quarterfinals:
Nadal vs. Del Potro
Djokovic vs. Federer
Ferrer vs. Wawrinka
Murray vs. Berdych
Semifinals:
Nadal vs. Ferrer
Djokovic vs. Murray
No WAY is Federer in Nole’s quarter. I will donate ritb’s ipad if that happens.
I don’t think we heard about Brisbane, Aukland or Sydney playing fast until the tournament began so too early to say anything about Melbourne. Why would they speed up all the tournaments leading into Melbourne and not Melbourne itself. Tilley said it’s no different but I’ve heard that before. Wimby grass was supposedly no different last year either but that was BS with all of the slip and falls.
Can you believe this? @hawkeye63 is putting MY IPad where his mouth is! Be warned people, don’t accept a cheque from this guy………
Seriously, of concern to me are the forecast temperatures next week. Surely the organizers will implement their heat PLO y and close the roof, making it a HC indoor Slam, advantage Novak and Fed, disadvantage Rafa.
Oh well, I may have to give away my Ipad to @hawkeye63 after all, it has a life of its own. Mypost of January 9, 2014 at 5:24 pm should read “………will implement their heat policy and close the roof.”
@nativenewyorker,
Please henceforth, kindly ignore ALL my posts, just scroll down when you see my name. I will certainly be ignoring ALL your posts henceforth. Thank you.
@ritb,
Sorry, but I didn’t see your last comment before I wrote an other reply to you. So you can feel free to ignore it. Your comment is quite rude and unnecessary, but it’s not unexpected.
If I had read it, then I would not have bothered to write what I did. But I felt the need to say some things. I thought that was why we are here, to have a lively discussion and even disagree. But I see that this is not the case.
Believe me, I will be only too happy to ignore ALL your posts and you can ignore ALL my posts. It’s actually been that way for some time now.
Phweeeee………….
That, is the sound of me exhaling………………….nice.
Awwww, c’mon draw! The suspense is killing me……………….
I’ve already posted the important parts of the draw.
#SpoilerAlert
#Anticimactic
#YoureWelcome
I am trying to ignore your draw preds @hawkeye63, what with the tournament very likely becoming an indoor HC Slam with the heat on its way………………….can’t bear to think of big hitters being crammed into Rafa’s quarter on top of that……………
That would shut me up pretty quick………………..
only four hours now!
Fair to say a whole lotta people are expecting Djokovic to have a dominant 2014……..I wonder why……not.
http://www.changeovertennis.com/changeover-chat-2014-predictions/
Cortney Nguyen gushing about Djokovic’s Melbourne exploits:
“It’s hard to bet against Djokovic’s doing his part. Four of his six Grand Slam titles have come in Melbourne. The three-time defending champion has the Australian Open down to a science; he opted to limit his preparations to exhibition events once again this year, which guarantee him a few good matches, before spending the last two weeks fine-tuning his game and arriving early in Melbourne.
With questions surrounding 2013 finalist Andy Murray’s fitness and four-time champion Roger Federer’s form, there are few left in the draw other than Nadal to stop the Serb. This is particularly true if No. 5 Juan Martin del Potro lands in the other half of the draw.”
http://tennis.si.com/2014/01/09/australian-open-preview-burning-questions/
Courtney once again killing it
Del Potro vs Djokovic matches are awesome so I am hoping Delpo lands into nole’s quarter…he is also one of the very few guys capable of beating novak…
Making draw predictions is FUNNY lol…
Yes it is. Funny but awesome.
when exactly does the draw come out?
briefly talking about the long discussion above, I think it’s complicated. Rafa and novak are very very closely matched in this rivalry and on any surface, you know both of them have a chance of winning. Rafa is the big favourite at RG, djo is the favourite at Oz…
I think having djo as the favourite is reasonable …I personally think djo-rafa are joint favourites… rafa does seem to have a strong grip in slam matches since Oz 2012 but to say that djokovic won’t ever win a slam match against nadal ,ummm…i would be highly surprised if that does happen to be honest ! no doubt rafa is very very capable of beating djokovic in any slam , even the Oz open… but given how closely matches they are and how strong a player djo is, we can’t reasonably expect one-way traffic.
Will djo ever win an RG title? I will say that he deserves an RG title ! if fed got it, why not him? But will he actually win it? winning it by beating rafa would be AWFULLY tough but who knows! Djo winning an RG title in his career aint a bad bet i guess…
I have another question for those interested: IS DJOKOVIC BETTER THAN FEDERER ON CLAY?
for now, BRING ON OZ , we want a double career slam !
I think Djo is better than Fed. Djo and Fed never had to face each other in RG’s from 06 to 08 since every single time Djo was stopped by Rafa. Howeverthat 2011 semi was Fed’s best against Djo’s best and we know how it turned out
yea…fed beat him comvincingly …but one head to head match is not enough to reach a conclusion… don’t think fed would have lost to djoker at 06-07 RG… 2008-09 would have been a good chance for djo…
The question is: who is better in his prime at RG/on clay? In terms of giving rafa (the greatest) a sterner challenge, it’s obv novak but many would say that is linked to the match-up thing.. fed has five masters 1000 on RED clay..djo has four i guess…
Rafa has prevented djo from reaching the finals on three successive occasions 06-08 and djo was the only player who gave some resistance to the 2008-version of rafa at RG….
Any other thoughts?
@vamosrafa, can I ask you a question: in the context of a tennis blog, do you honestly take the statement, “Djokovic ain’t beating Rafa in a Slam again” as gospel? That the poster who says that, is saying it in the literal sense? That it deserves the label, “complicated”? That they have looked in some crystal ball and “seen” into the future and it says Djokovic ain’t winning another Slam against Rafa again?
Hint: look for facetiousness……………..
Another hint: I certainly do not take myself (and the other posters) that seriously when I drop posts on tennis blogs…………
It’s a way to pass the time……
For laughs……
Seriously…………
ceremony starts at 10:30 Aussie time. I assume women go first.
$6.80/mango? That’s absurd………
“Davis Cup captain Martin Laurendeau is starting to get worried about his expense account at the Australian Open. No. 1 on his list of concerns is the high cost of those delicious Australian mangos in the players restaurant – $6.80 per!”
http://www.tenniscanada.com/index.php?title=TEBBUTT:-THE-AUSSIE-OPEN-Qs&pid=5249
lol…that’s insanely expensive for a mango
Going to bed, pretending the draw ain’t nothin’………….and hopefully wake up to a super, super draw for Rafa………….
Vamos!
vamos,
So true. margins are not very wide between them. I too do not believe for a minute that Novak will clearly not beat Rafa at a slam again. Knees permitting I do believe Rafa might have the positive H2H at slams from now on… but that’s about it.
Re RG and clay, at RG it was getting close last year but you have to admit that Rafa was coming back from that long injury recovery. It could be Novak beats Rafa at RG once, but not a given. If it happens it will be something Roger never got close to doing over many attempts. Novak already came close once. Novak winning RG when not meeting Rafa there… to be expected.
It would be too bad in a way if Rafa’s chances of a double career slam will be made smaller with roof closings and purpose draw selections (if indeed they will be on purpose), but I guess that is life at the ATP. We’ve seen many partly fixed draws over the years
it’s draw go time
^I almost shock myself for reading that I wrote that it may be that Novak beats Rafa once at RG…:-)
If that happens some time down the road when Rafa is clearly in decline and still playing, that’s one thing. If it happens before such a time… not that likely, and in that case, chapeau Novak. Novak is clearly not as strong on clay as Rafa, but is about the only one you can say just might do it once. Not a nice thought for the worshipers at the altar of the emperors with the new clothes.
I have no trouble stating that so far and very likely for good Rafa is the better player overall. That Novak is the toughest opponent for Rafa although Rafa has largely cut that toughness down … in ways Roger never did with his difficulties playing Rafa. There are now two flies in the oitment at that altar. A Spanish fly and a Serbian fly. The Spanish one must be the more annoying of the two, given how much the Serbian one is sometimes hyped up.
NIGHTMARE draw for Rafa
I just got home from an appointment and checked in to see Rafas’ draw. Holy cow. Tomic in the first round. It’s a horrible draw for Rafa.
^My placement of the comma on Rafa’s name must’ve been some sort of subliminal thinking. Hopefully there’ll be the equivalent of multiple Rafas to deal with this draw.
Rafa’s quarter is the group of death
– Brad Gilbert at 7:20:27 pm ET Jan 9th
who else is there?
let’s move draw discussion here – https://tenngrand.com/2014/01/10/australian-open-draw-revealed/
Oh Lord! Rafa has Fed,Murray, Tsonga and Delpo
vamosrafa,
With my tongue firmly in my cheek and coming from someone who obviously must take herself and other posters here far too seriously (LOL), I appreciated your discussion about Djoker or Fed being better on clay.
At one time I would have said Fed for sure. But Djoker has raised his level of play since 2011. Now he wasn’t able to sustain that level of play, but he is still a much better player than he was pre-2011. In my opinion, of course. I guess it’s not really fair to compare Djoker with Fed now. I guess if we compared them respectively in their prime, given that Djoker is still in his prime, it’s tough to say. Fed never was able to push Rafa at RG the way that Djoker has been able to in the last year or two.
One can only wonder what Fed might have done on clay had there not been a Rafa.
I appreciated your reasonable comments on the question as to whether Djoker will ever win a slam against Rafa. I have stated what I believe. I don’t want it to ever happen again, but I do think it will. I think that Djoker and Rafa are very closely matched. Rafa was the mentally stronger player up until 2011. Then he got that advantage back in 2012.
What I will say is that I think Rafa has been better at tweaking his game, working constantly to implement little changes here and there to keep him competitive and give him the advantage. In that regard, I think Rafa has been incredibly smart.
At this point in time I do think Rafa is definitely the better player.
Thank you for making your points in a fair, reasonable manner with respect for the opinions of others. I value that very much. 🙂
Sigh…………
I honestly cant think of a single Grand slam in the last 3 years that hasn’t given Djokovic the easiest of draws. At the very least the majority of his draws are significantly easier than Nadals.
might be time to do some investigation. would be interesting.
@Chris, you are echoing my sentiments. There was a time I put it down to the fact that Novak was the #1 hence the easy draws but this is too much……….
#IfItQuacksLikeADuck
Hewitt, Del Po, Tomic are in great form. Also as Ricky had pointed out earlier, meeting an unseeded up and coming player like Tomic in the first round and maybe Thomas in the second is more dangerous than meeting an unseeded established player ranked below 50.
Ferrer and Berdych are not.in good form.
Virtually the only threat to Novak in his draw is Wawa. I think if this kind of fixing of draws continues, I will give up watching tennis. I feel really disappointed after seeing this happening year after year. Last year, Rome and RG were rigged for Fed so obviously but it resulted in Fed’s half being a joke as Fed either got thrashed ( Rome) or did not make it to the semis (RG).
Rigging the draw for Novak won’t reduce his half to a joke because he can be counted upon to make it to the finals with an easy draw ( as was the case for Fed earlier).
Has Rafa commented on his draw? He must be sad but I am sure he will put a brave face on it. I pray that the draw opens up for him so he will arrive relatively fresh to the finals as happened in USO 2010. ( the draw was tough but opened up).
Rafa will not comment on the draw, he’s too classy for that. He will just get on with it, as well he should. I also hope the draw opens up for him. Tennis needs Rafa in the final.
Vamos!!
Hey Vegas, before you install Novak as the favourite for the next Slam, consider this:
“He has now lost at seven of the last eight majors,………………..”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20140121/novak-djokovic-stanislas-wawrinka-australian-open-upset/