Approach Shots: Federer back for Cincinnati title defense

“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.

Most of the top players in the world, including everyone in the Top 10 other than an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, will be making their final preparations for the U.S. Open this week at the Western & Southern Open. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal got plenty of match practice in at the Rogers Cup, but Andy Murray (who lost his second match in Montreal to Ernests Gulbis) and Roger Federer (who skipped the tournament) must be eager for court time heading into the final Grand Slam of 2013.

Western & Southern Open

Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,729,155
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Nadal and Federer have both been in the draw of six tournaments this season. In four of those they have found themselves in the same half and three in the same quarter; first in Indian Wells (quarter), then in Madrid (half), next at Wimbledon (quarter), and now in Cincinnati (quarter). Only in Indian Wells did the anticipated quarterfinal showdown come to fruition, and another installment of the rivalry is a long way from happening this week even though the draw makes it possible. Federer awaits either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Mardy Fish (what would be a rematch of the 2010 Cincinnati final) in his opener before a possible date with Tommy Haas or Kevin Anderson. Nadal’s path is far more friendly on paper, but he is coming off a long–albeit triumphant–week in Montreal and Cincy is traditionally one of his worst tournaments. The Spaniard will begin his campaign against either Pablo Andujar or Benjamin Becker before potentially running into Grigor Dimitrov in the last 16.

A more difficult bottom half of the bracket also features a section involving Murray and Tomas Berdych. Murray may get a shot at revenge against Gulbis in the second round, although the Latvian has an intriguing first-rounder on his hands against Mikhail Youzhny. Other seeds in the final quarter are Stanislas Wawrinka and a red-hot Fabio Fognini. The Italian captured two straight clay-court titles earlier this summer and finished runner-up in another event, but he won’t have a surface advantage against Radek Stepanek or versus Julien Benneteau in round two.

It’s all setting up nicely for Djokovic, who—like Nadal—is still bidding for his first Cincinnati title. The top-ranked Serb, a four-time runner-up at this tournament, will have plenty of rest following his Montreal semifinal loss to Nadal and his nearest seeds are Gilles Simon, Richard Gasquet, and Milos Raonic. None has shown that they would have any prayer against Djokovic. Vasek Pospisil, who earned a special exemption as a result of his dream run to the Montreal semis, could face the world No. 1 in round three. Potential semifinal opponents for Djokovic out of the most wide-open quarter include David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro. Both men are dealing with injuries, so a deep run by Jerzy Janowicz or Kei Nishikori—or even an unseeded floater like Benoit Paire or 2012 quarterfinalist Jeremy Chardy—could be in the cards.

First-round upset alerts: Kevin Anderson over (11) Tommy Haas – Both players are in the midst of impressive seasons but coming off opening losses in Montreal—Anderson to Dolgopolov and Haas to Marinko Matosevic. Haas, though, retired with a shoulder injury while trailing 5-0 in the first. That does not bode well for his chances of holding off an in-form Anderson.

(WC) Jack Sock over (12) Milos Raonic – Sock pulled off the upset in their only previous encounter with a 6-3, 5-7, 7-5 victory earlier this season in Memphis. That even came on Raonic’s favorite setting of indoor hard courts. Outdoors during the American hard-court summer should be more favorable for Sock. Furthermore, he is well-rested while Raonic is making a quick turnaround after lasting the entire week in Montreal–where he ultimately got pummeled by Nadal.

(SE) Vasek Pospisil over (15) Gilles Simon – Simon has not won a single match since losing the Eastbourne final to Feliciano Lopez. The rough stretch reached a new low at the Rogers Cup, where the Frenchman took set one over Nikolay Davydenko then promptly got double-breadsticked. Pospisil suffered a tough loss to Raonic in the semis, but not having to play a title match will at least give him a little bit of much-needed rest.

Second-round upset alerts: Ernests Gulbis over (2) Andy Murray – Will lightning strike twice in two weeks? Probably not. But based on Gulbis’ current form and what transpired in Montreal, the Latvian is obviously in with a chance. Murray has played only two matches since winning Wimbledon—one being his loss to Gulbis.

Benoit Paire over (7) Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro also carried an injury last year in Cincinnati (left wrist) despite making it to the quarterfinals. Now it’s a back issue. The Argentine barely got past Ivan Dodig in the Montreal second round before falling to Raonic in straight sets. Paire, who is enjoying a stellar 2013 campaign, may be able to capitalize.

John Isner over (8) Richard Gasquet – If Isner advances, a fourth career meeting with Gasquet will come on the American’s favorite stomping crowds: outdoor hard courts in the USA during the summer. Isner had played and won a ton of matches heading into Montreal (semis in Newport, title in Atlanta, final in Washington, D.C.), but he should be well-rested after losing in the first round to Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker. Gasquet reached the quarters but was downright dreadful in bowing out to Djokovic.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini, Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson, Tommy Robredo, Ernests Gulbis, Adrian Mannarino

Cold: Roger Federer, Gilles Simon, Janko Tipsarevic, Brian Baker, James Blake, Jurgen Melzer, Sam Querrey, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jeremy Chardy, Mardy Fish, Thomaz Bellucci, David Goffin

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over John Isner, Jerzy Janowicz over Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson over Grigor Dimitrov, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych

Semifinals: Djokovic over Janowicz and Murray over Anderson

Final: Djokovic over Murray

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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96 Comments on Approach Shots: Federer back for Cincinnati title defense

  1. “Murray has played only one match since winning Wimbledon—his loss to Gulbis.”

    one correction. He played two (Granollers 2R)

  2. Ricky,

    Really? Rafa not even getting to the quarterfinals? What, he’s tired after playing five matches? Or he won’t want to kill himself before the USO? Why not just pull out altogether?

    So far Rafa is playing. I think he would have pulled out already. I assume he would ask for a Wednesday start.

    I don’t see Rafa playing if he doesn’t expect to have a decent result. I would expect him to get to the quarterfinals.

  3. ricky thinks cincy is played on a planet where rafa finds hard to breathe LOL… if rafa wants to do well there, he’l make it to the semi finals in my view … or may be the qtrs..cincy is fast but there is nothing substantial to suggest rafa cant win in fast conditions when he is playing this well ! he has never approached playing cincy this well so I am not looking too much into the past results…

    Rafa is physically fresh too..today’s match was just a practice session…

  4. Even somehow I get a feeling that Rafa would not get too far in this tournament. Traditionally Rafa does not enjoy Cincy. But he stands a chance of winning or reaching the final if the draw opens up with seeds tumbling out.

  5. it was often said that US open is rafa’s worst slam..he was never comfortable there until he won it in 2010 dropping a single set ! so if cincy is his worst tournament, that does not mean he is forever going to bow out in that early…not saying he is going to win cincy but he can surely do well here if he wants to

  6. Oh my both Roger and Rafa not even making the qtrs, now thats really bold Ricky 🙂

    I hope we know if Roger doesn’t make it even to qtrs and Berdy, DElpo put up decent results , Roger may go down to No 6/7 too. I dont think he will let that happen, I am sure he will have something to say about it.

  7. Really Ricky? Rafa will not make it to Qtrs coz its his worst tournament? And Fed? He will lose coz its his best tournament? Seriously man..

    My pick: Fedal Qf will take place with Rafa as winner (given their recent form). Then a Rafa-Muzz Sf whose outcome is difficult to predict coz of Muzz puzzle.

  8. @ vamosrafa. USO was most difficult but the kind of effort that Rafa would put into winning it is not the same as the one he would want to put in to win Cincy considering its so close to USO. And certainly not if he has to go thru the likes of Federer,Murray and Djoko to win it. Especially since he did well in canada and has sent a message out to the field. No .1 ranking can wait. I love Rafa where he is the hunter. The thing is that matches with top players not only drain you physically but mentally as well. Imagine Rafa having to play Murray rather than Raonic after that match with the Djok! If he really wants number 1, he has ample tournaments in the fall to make a dash for it. But now USO is his priority, isn’t it?

    • vmk, Rafa dropped his serve 3 times in the whole tournament at the USO in 2010. What kind of effort are you talking about?

  9. Lol Andy is “hot.” “Luke warm”, I’d say.
    Lol abhirf Andy certainly is a “puzzle.” You must be a fan! Andy had the trainer out for his back in his double semi, so don’t think he’ll be risking anything here. Hope he gives Gulbis a slap though….:) But, on the other hand, hasn’t he won here twice, so obviously likes/does well here. EEK.
    Got no idea whose gonna win tbh
    #OnTheFence

  10. Hahaha! Hahaha! Hahaha!, Hahaha! Hahaha! Hahaha! Hahaha!

    That’s all I have to say about Ricky’s prediction for Rafa and Fed…………..

    • I am glad that you are laughing. Maybe that’s the best way to look at it. We know that Rafa hasn’t done well at this tournament, but look at how he’s playing!

      I am happy that Rafa wants to play at Cincy. I just couldn’t see him sitting around on his butt or practicing for the next two weeks. He’s been out for a while and it’s great to see him playing this well, but he’s not in his best form yet. At the very least it’s more match play for him and some additional points.

      As for Rafa moving up in the rankings, my issue is that if he can at least get to #2, then he won’t have to bump up against Djoker in the semis anymore. I don’t think he can get to #2 before the USO, but it would be nice to see him get there after. It depends on how he does at the USO.

      Someone said on another site, I think it was tennis-x, that Rafa needs 2500 points to become #1. I haven’t looked into it so can’t say if this is correct.

      • Hi NNY…Thanks for the welcome. You thought about me and I am here 🙂

        My take is both Murray and Djoko are equally difficult now on for Rafa.. Djoko may just be more troublesome given the history but we really never know how he will square up against the newer Murray GS version.

        Rafa s currently 3540 points behind Novak in points, but in the race he is like 1420 points ahead of Novak. Novak has a good 4300 points plus (Cin Finalist, USO finalist, Shanghai wnner, WTF winner) to defend till year end, Rafa has 0. This can swing any way. USO will be the key. Rafa somehow needs to clock about 3000 points from now till year end I feel to assure himself of the No 1 ranking.

        Rafa is currently only 750 points behind Andy in points and 2560 points ahead in race. I think the only way for Rafa to get to No 2 before USO is to win Cincy. I think overtaking Andy is doable , Djoko is a herculean prospect, but let us see how it pans out.

  11. Rafas take on World No 1, my this guy is really serious about it. He is actually keeping a tab on the points and even admitting it unlke a certain Mr Federer who said he rarely sees the rankings and checks it to see where Stan is at 🙂

    “I feel I have an advantage, but not enough to say that I am the favourite,” he said. “On this kind of surface, Novak is really good. [There] remains three Masters 1000s, one Grand Slam, [Barclays ATP World Tour Finals] – more favourable surfaces for him than for me. So we are talking about 6,500 points.

    “We have to realise how many points I have to win to be No. 1. I think I will not be No. 1 if I have less than 10,000 points at the end of the season. Today I have 8,000. I need to win minimum 2,000 more. That’s very difficult in this part of the season, but I’m going to try.”

  12. why rafa always underestimates his chances? the way he is playing I m sure he can win 4000 points easily … who can beat him in us open?? murray is the only guy I think but its not gonna be at all.. and I have a feeling he will perform incredible in WTF note my words rafans.. 😉

  13. and I also dont understand whenever I feel andy can win he just crashes out of the tournament 🙁 I dont see him to be a strong contestant for the world no. 1 🙁 sad but its true he is a good world no 2 and 3 at the moment :/

  14. vmk1: I’m of exactly the same view as you. I fail to understand why Cincy should be any more difficult than Montreal/Toronto if Rafa went flat out for it. Interestingly enough both he and Nole bowed out in the Cincy 2010 QFs (on that occasion Baggy recorded his one and only win against Rafa in 8 meetings) but the two went on to meet in the USO final. Who can forget how that ended!!!!

    Rafa has stated he has his eye on regaining the No.1 spot but I doubt he will put his knees at risk in order to do so. Lke you I believe he is actually more comfortable at No.2.

    • I disagree ed251137. I believe Rafa was comfortable as a #2 with Roger as #1. Call me crazy but I get the sense Rafa does not think Novak is a deserving #1. Not in the sense of his game, but as an ambassador for the position. I get the sense Team Nadal doesn’t absolutely like playing second fiddle to those “people”. Especially Uncle Toni, he has a hard time hiding his contempt. But with Roger, it was as if it was an honor to be second to Fed. During Fed’s reign, Uncle Toni never ever came out publicly talking about aiming for #1 but this year he has. Rafa will not put his knees at risk for it but he is gunning for it alright.

  15. Sana, I too have the same feeling for Muzz. He is too inconsistent to be a World no.1. He’s gotta improve on that. He cant afford to take the clay swing so leniently.

  16. Muzz’s priority is winning slams. If in the process he gets to no. 1, ok. But he is not gunning for No. 1.
    Nole on the other hand has always wanted to be no. 1.. Even though Roger was equally arrogant, his arrogance was less irksome to Rafa because Roger was already established when Rafa came along so Rafa was sufficiently in awe to accept Roger’s no. 1 as his rightful due. Not so with Nole who came along later.
    Also Roger’s celebrations were always about how great he is and not about dancing on his rival’s fallen body.
    Nole and his team’s disgraceful over the top celebrations of victories over Rafa as well as the distasteful mock holdup of Djoko staged by Troicki on facebook didn’t help matters. We also have the stink and vile posts of Nole fans on Rafa’s wall and in every tennis forum when Djoko was winning.
    I am sure even Muzz is disgusted by Nole and his team’s behavior.
    In order to like Nole you have to keep beating him. Let him win and he is unbearable.

  17. clayqueen definitely has to contend with some mysterious glitches. Her posts suddenly appear out of time sequence. Ricky should look into this. Without her active contributions, this site just will not have the vitality of the old group.

  18. As far as Rafa being more comfortable at #2, well he’s not there yet. For myself, at least that would preclude him meeting Djoker in the semis. I also believe that Rafa has matured and would be more comfortable at #1 now. It’s been a few years. I also think it would mean even more to him now to get back at the top after all that he has been through.

    As far as Rafa not liking being behind Djoker in the rankings because he is not a deserving #1, I don’t know that he thinks like that. Uncle Toni may have issues, but I don’t know about Rafa. They don’t always agree. The comments from Djoker’s father are not helping either.

    Rafa may have had respect for Fed when he was #2 behind him, but that didn’t stop him from wanting to be #1.

    Rafa is not stupid. He will not put his knees at risk to gain the #1 ranking. However, some Rafa fans need to stop freaking out every time he plays on hard court. Rafa is not a porcelain doll. He’s not going to break because of two back-to-back hard court tournaments. He has to have enough match play before the USO. He’s been off and had the chance to rest and get treatment. He can play for one month and then after the USO take some time off.

    Regarding the comment about Djoker’s fans, we should remember that the idiots who were so disgusting on TT, were not real Djoker fans. They were haters and trolls.

    • nativenewyorker7 (August 12, 2013 at 5:19 pm),

      Uncle Toni was lately asked about Novak’s father comments. U.Toni answered that Rafa and Novak have still good relationships.
      —Question: In this sense, one thing that has caught my attention were the statements of the father of Novak Djokovic, saying that Novak and Rafael are no longer friends since Novak wins often.
      Toni Nadal: Yes, yes, but first I think it is misinformed, because the relationship between Rafael and Djokovic is the same as a few years ago. They have a good relationship. And if he sees a different relationship, maybe it would have to ask your child, or maybe it’s his son who now is about less. But the relationship is good. You do not go to dinner with him because you’re with your team or with the Spanish, but the relationship is good.—
      [Jot Down, 12.08.2013, Google translate]
      http://www.jotdown.es/2013/08/toni-nadal-rafa-probablemente-es-el-jugador-que-mas-partidos-gana-jugando-mal/

  19. ed,

    If you don’t want to answer this here on this site, I will understand. But I have always wondered if you knew who scoretracker really was. You made some comments hinting at it. Because I have my own ideas.

    • He always claimed to be male but the hysterical rants and epic meltdowns always struck me as being a female with PMT. The constant references to age and the goading remarks about lifestyle/lack of education/immaturity etc were uncannily similar to S*****

      • Oh, so that’s who you thought it was. I thought it was someone else.

        We do agree that this person was a female. I also do not believe that she was really a Fed fan.

      • One more comment. I don’t think that’s who it was. This person went after me from the start. It was intensely personal. I know there are people on tennis-x who really can’t stand me, but it never got to the point of being that intense kind of personal hatred. I am not going to say publicly here who I believe it was.

  20. Isn’t this the first time Rafa has ever said he is gunning for number 1? Took me by surprise. In the past he always downplayed the importance and talked about not worrying about, worrying only about improving and about trying to win matches one at a time.

  21. Well thank goodness. We have our answer. But I already knew it. Rafa showed me with his actions at Montreal. You could see he was a man on a mission. He came prepared with a game plan and having practiced his serve and ROS. He understands that if he is to be successful on hard court, then there are some aspects of his game that need work.

    So now we see one more time that the only pressure Rafa has is what he puts on himself. It’s a lot for him to come out and say it. He realizes that there is an opportunity that doesn’t come along that often. He has nothing to defend for the rest of the year. I am sure that he was not happy about losing his first match at Wimbledon. So the adversity and setbacks only seem to make him even more determined.

    I watch him and realize that I have to cherish the time that he is in this sport. We will not see someone like him again. With all the he has gone through, all the injuries and disappointments, he is still in there fighting. Remarkable.

  22. All true, nny. But as ritb says, you have to wonder why Rafa says publicly he is gunning for number one. In the past he might when he was near the number one with Roger within touching distance) I’m sure he was looking at it as a goal but he never said it in public.

    Maybe this time it is because the writing is on the wall. He has done it before, Nole is not playing this year as he did in ’11, Andy is not (yet) consistent enough to be too big an obstacle, Rafa has no points to defend for the next 6 months while leading in the race!, and Rafa’s season since coming back in Feb is as good so far as Nole’s was in ’11 (minus the early exit in London). So this is the best chance he may have in the next couple of years and this is hard not to see. So perhaps to be too modest about it would seem disingenuous. Before he overtook Roger for number one it was an up-hill climb with no guarantees it would happen.

  23. I thought that Rafa fans would want to know that he had his lower back taped in Montreal. There were some people on vb who were at the tournament and saw it in the quarterfinal match. They only posted it after the fact. They did not want to upset Rafa fans by revealing this while the tournament was in progress.

    Now it makes even more sense that Rafa wanted to get through the match with Matosevic if his back was bothering him. He did say in an interview that the knee is fine, but his back was hurting. This is from being out for so long. They also thought that Rafa was holding back with this serving against Matosevic because of the match with Djoker coming up. I rememeber thinking that Rafa was only doing just enough to win. Now we have another reason why.

    They also said that the tape wasn’t on his back for the semifinal match with Djoker. I have a feeling that Rafa isn’t showing us everything. I think there will be some surprises at the USO.

    • NNY ..With Rafs aggression..I am liking your aggression too :-). You are like come what may..Rafa has to get the No 1 back and I too feel the same..he has to get it back..I dont care how long he keeps it..3 months or 1 year..but he has to end the season as No 1 ..Go Rafa Go

  24. nny, Saturday’s match and yesterday’s did remind me of Rafa’s getting ready for the USO in 2010. No guarantees of course it will happen. Were he to win it a second time this summer, even after playing so well the last 6 months, would be a major surprise and achievement. But he seems to be working on it with dedication, the same as any important goal he’s set himself in the past. I am curious to see whether he will find a way to play aggressively for most of the match each match he plays at the USO. And I hope he will play many of them :-). And that the lower back tape two days ago means little re this week.

  25. @hawkeye, after RG Uncle Toni said Rafa was in a good position to end the year #1 and that whoever wins Wimby will be in pole position to end the year in front. After Montreal Rafa said, given his current ranking points, he would need to get to at least 10,000 ranking points to have a shot at the #1 spot and he would try his best. I will look for the relevant links and post.

    • ritb,

      I think I read those comments from Rafa on vb. I would have to go back and look for that interview. It stood out to me because it indicates that Rafa has been thinking about the rankings . He said that he now has 8000 points and would need no less than 10,000 points to be #1. He is almost at 8000 points after Montreal. I think he also said in that interview that there is 6000 some thing points up for grabs in the final part of the tennis year.

    • 6500 points up for grabs with 3 Masters, 1 GS, WTF…..and no 10000 wont do, has to be 11000 at a minimum..Nole is not going to watch from the sidelines..

  26. When you click the link, then go to Rafa rocks Raonic in Montreal. That is the blog that has his comments about the rankings.

    • Yes, Rafa had his lower back taped in Monte Carlo.
      Interview in Monte Carlo on 19/04/2013
      [Google translate]
      —Question. “Bandages were seen in your lower back at the end of the game…”
      Rafa: “Yes…( he hesitates, then sighs ). Yes, there is something, but I do not want people talking about it. After a break it’s normal to have back, shoulder or elbow problems. I haven’t had enough time to practice. After Indian Wells, I did not play for two weeks, because I still had to undergo treatment for my knee. The body needs to adapt to this new playing intensity.”—
      http://www.lequipe.fr/Tennis/Actualites/Nadal-a-besoin-de-temps/364868

  27. This is more evidence of the price Rafa pays when he has to be out for a while. Yes, he did have his back taped at MC. As he said, his body has to adjust to the rigors of playing again.

    We all remember how he had that stomach tear when he came back in 2009. I think he is holding back with his serving. Someone mentioned on vb that he has changed his ball toss and service motion. I thought that we would see a milder version of the USO serve this time. But this person said that the change in mechanics would be to avoid the shoulder problems he developed in the last months of 2009.

    I just have this feeling that Rafa will have some surprises in store for everyone at the USO. Either he has figured out that he doesn’t need to go all out and hit 130+ serves now, or we might just see that big serve reappear. I personally think that hitting 123, 124 and 125 mph aces is good enough. That’s what he was doing in the match with Djoker.

    Djoker never had a huge serve. He would stay in the mid 120’s with his first serve. But his second serve was bigger than normal. He usually served in the 90’s and sometimes even in the low 100’s. I know that Rafa hit a 98 mph serve in the first set of that semifinal match. I don’t remember him going for that much. Despite that, Djoker still hit a ROS winner. But overall Rafa’s serve held up quite well. I think that Djoker only broke Rafa once, in the second set. There were no breaks of serve in the third set. Rafa broke Djoker twice in the first set. That is a huge difference from their matches in the past.

    • Yes I think so too, however you cant say it is similar to 2010. He did not show us his monster serve in Canada/Cinci in 2010..it sddenly appeared in USO..However here, he showed us his aggressiveness, court positioning, good serving all n Montreal..It can either be variations to his serve which can take people by surprise.

      • Sanju,

        I don’t think that Rafa had a choice, considering that he had to play Djoker in the semis. If he hadn’t shown those tactics in that match, then he would have lost. Also, in 2010 he was coming off a great win at Wimbledon. He got treatment for the knee and wasn’t able to practice until right before Canada. So he came in very rusty. I think he also didn’t show us the USO serve because he had some problems with his stomach and didn’t want to risk another stomach tear.

        At that point, he just wanted to come into the USO healthy. That big serve is what got him through his early rounds when he wasn’t yet in his best form.

        I still don’t know if Rafa is going to come out with that huge 2010 serve. Maybe he realized that he doesn’t have to serve that hard. He can do it by blasting aces in the mid 120’s. I still think that there are going to be more surprises. He was testing his aggressive game in all his matches at Montreal.

    • It is someone who was banned from both tennis-x and tt. There was only one Roddick fan on either site. Do you remember scoretracker talking about Roddick and American tennis often? That was a big clue.

      There is only one person with whom I have had contact that hates me as much. This person also hated Jane with a passion.

      I don’t know if you ever read tennis-x. Danny Morris really finally confirmed it for me when he was going after people for getting someone banned.

  28. That was a dreadful performance from Jerzy! Blake did play well, but what on earth was Jerzy thinking out there? Or was he thinking? He finally woke up in the second set and had his chances to break Blake. But he didn’t get the job done. He was just hitting harder and harder. He has to think and adjust to opponents. It’s not just about blasting the ball has hard as possible.

  29. “Looking at the match that we had a few days ago, I think it was decided by just a few points,” said Djokovic. “There was no difference in the previous matches we had – most of them – in the last few years. 2011 I was winning most of them; now he’s winning. It’s a course of life.”

    “You can’t always be winning the matches,” added Djokovic. “You can’t always be the one that is going to prevail in the important moments. It’s mental. It’s a matter of confidence also. Sometimes you manage to go for the shot that usually you wouldn’t and sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn’t for you. I guess that makes a difference.”

  30. this gives me a feeling djokovic is not so confident heading into the open , esp if he faces rafa…there seems to have a ‘mental block’ developing that will continue to grow if novak is unable to solve the rafa puzzle… and the fact that he lost to muzz at last year’s final and this year’s wimby final makes him significantly vulnerable… he is not in the best states of mind, that is for sure..If he is not able to put together a very strong performance here at cincy, he’l be struggling for confidence big time ..

    • Agree. He is feeling slightly vulnerable vis a vis Rafa and Andy right now. More than the RG loss, I think the Montreal loss may have hurt his confidence a bit more as it came on HC.

  31. Just watched the 2nd set of Fed-Kohlbi. He wasn’t looking particularly impressive but got the job done: Kohlbi tried to be a bit too tricksy which was his undoing.

    Waiting with interest to see where Djokovic is at.

    • ed,

      I saw that match, too. I wanted to see the new, reinvigorated Fed! His serve stats were really great. I think for the match he won something like 87% of first serves and over 60% of second serves. However, he was unable to capitalize on many of his break chances. It’s hard to judge him against Kohls, who I think did not play that well. I think you may have a point about Kohls trying to be too cute or tricksy.

      Kohls broke Fed in the second set and was up 4-2, but was broken back. So it went to a tb and Fed had a bit of trouble closing it out. Fed’s serve was really good and his groundstrokes were pretty sharp, but we will have to see what happens with him as he moves on.

      I am very interested to see where Djoker is at. I think his comments about his loss in the semis at Montreal to Rafa, were kind of disingenuous. He said that it came down to a few points like it always does with them. Unfortunately, he didn’t mention that he has won their last five meetings on hard courts. So this is a sea change. If Djoker doesn’t get serious about his game and work on some things, then he is going to regret it.

      • I am praying hard that Rafa gets to the finals, meets Djoker there and beats him! That would be the final stake in Djoker’s heart, he would fold. For all the positive srides he made in 2011 with regards his mentality, he has shown mental fragility this year and I think he is vulnerable right now.

  32. Yeah, Ricky you can talk up your pick about Dimitrov now, but I think Rafa will be able to handle him.

    vamosrafa,

    I do think that on this surface Dimitrov could be tough. But Rafa had to deal with Jerzy when he only had one match under his belt. I expect Rafa to come out prepared just the way he did against Jerzy.

    Rafa isn’t thinking about Dimitrov right now. I don’t know much about his first opponent. Hah! I bet if chr18 was here he would get on me for not knowing this qualifier! I remember him getting on me because I didn’t know two of Fed’s opponents ranked outside the top 100!

    I want to see who Ricky picks if Rafa and Fed do meet in the quarterfinals.

  33. RT @TennisReporters: “RT @tennis Roger returned to his smaller frame and scored a big win: #RacquetReaction to Federer d. Kohlschreiber: ”

    Sums up where Roger’s at right now. Beating Kohls is deemed big……..

    • I thought that Fed was going to use the big racket. I saw the match. Big win? Please tell me they are kidding! Kohls did not play well at all. He had a chance when he broke Fed in the second set. I thought Kohls let opportunities get away from him.

      The one thing is that Fed’s serving stats were excellent. But what is going to happen when he bumps up against someone who can challenge him? I am of course talking about Rafa!

      Look at this point Fed has to do something. He is defending 1000 points here. If he can’t win and drops more points, his ranking could fall further. Unfortunately for him, he could potentially have to play Rafa, Andy and Djoker to win!

  34. NNY: Of course! There was a time when I had made that connection but I’d forgotten about her completely in the meantime.

    May peace reign here!

    • ed,

      I thought you weren’t going to answer me. Since you said nothing, I just let it go. So now you do know who I was talking about? I don’t want to say the name here publicly. I also don’t want to tempt fate and give this person a reason to go after me or anyone else.

      There is so much I could say, but I don’t dare. I know a lot more than I have let on. So you now think that was her? I contacted Cheryl Murray in the past with my suspicions, but I don’t think she believed me or just didn’t want to go there.

      Long live peace and great tennis discussions!

  35. between nadal and federer, ricky usually picks nadal , no matter the surface !…

    anyway, monaco recovered and then lead 5-4 after being down 1-4 againt djo in set 1 only to choke in that important ‘serving for the match’ game… djo not so comfortable so far

    • I am not looking ahead to Rafa and Fed yet. Rafa hasn’t even played his first match. But I looked up this guy Becker on the atp website. He is the one who gave Agassi his final loss in the game. The guy is old and has been around for a long time. He’s currently ranked 100. If Rafa comes out sharp, then he shouldn’t have too much trouble with this guy. Dimitrov is another thing.

      I saw the Djoker/Monaco match. Some ugly stuff from Djoker. Lots of UE’s. He was up 4-1 in that first set and then Monaco came back to even it up at 4-4 and then go ahead 5-4. That’s when Djoker seemed to raise his level of play to get the first set. After that Monaco didn’t put up much resistance.

      These are the kinds of lapses that Djoker has been having all year. He got away with it against Monaco, but he won’t be able to do it against Murray or Rafa.

  36. Ricky is trying to emulate the sequence of events in Montreal where 2 ‘wild cards’ made it to the SF. I was hoping he would leave his crystal ball at TT.

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