French Open draw analysis: Nadal vs. Zverev the headliner, rough road for Tsitsipas 

Either the 14-time French Open champion or one of the top favorites to win this year’s title will be out in the first round. That is the big story of the 2024 men’s singles draw, as Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev will square off on Monday. On the other side of the bracket, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will try to overcome recent injuries and lift La Coupe des Mousquetaires for the first time. 

With main-draw action beginning on Sunday, it’s time to break down the field of 128. 

Djokovic’s quarter

With Djokovic wildly out of sorts this season and coming off an alarming loss to Tomas Machac in the Geneva semifinals, this isn’t the worst spot to be for other players. Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Lorenzo Musetti, and others will all think they have a legitimate shot to emerge from this section of the bracket and secure a semifinal spot.  

Best first-round matchup — Alexei Popyrin vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis 

Kokkinakis won both of the previous meetings between these two Aussies last year on hard courts – in a second-set tiebreaker at the Manama Challenger and 7-5 in the third set at an ATP 250 in Adelaide. This should be another good one, with all the makings of a five-setter. 

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Best potential second-round matchup – (30) Lorenzo Musetti vs. Gael Monfils  

Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Casper Ruud vs. (28) Tomas Martin Etcheverry 

Possible surprises – Djokovic is struggling and Ruud curiously put in a ton of energy to win the Geneva title, even playing both his semifinal and the final on the same day because of rain. It really wouldn’t be a huge shock to see each of the two 2023 Roland Garros finalists bow out early. If they do, Fritz and Paul are among those who could capitalize. Even unseeded floaters like Gael Monfils and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could make a run. 

Zverev’s quarter

If Zverev does manage to get past Nadal, more difficulty can be expected to come in a hurry. Either Lyon champion Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard or former French Open quarterfinalist David Goffin would be up next. Holger Rune and Karen Khachanov are potential fourth-round opponents for Zverev (or Nadal), while familiar foe Daniil Medvedev could loom large in the quarters. It’s a pretty tough section every step of the way. 

Best first-round matchup — (4) Alexander Zverev vs. Rafael Nadal 

Nadal vs. Zverev in the opening round…. You can’t make this stuff up, folks. It is a rematch of the 2022 French Open semis, in which Zverev was infamously forced to retire during the second-set tiebreaker because of an ankle injury. Is redemption on the way for Zverev? He is 1-5 lifetime against Nadal on clay, but this obviously isn’t the Nadal of old.  

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Best potential second-round matchup – (19) Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff 

Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Holger Rune vs. (18) Karen Khachanov 

Possible surprises — A Nadal upset of Zverev would obviously break this quarter totally wide open. Even if that doesn’t happen, the other half of the section could deliver some surprises. Rune is slumping and Medvedev is always a question mark on clay, so Jan-Lennard Struff and Hamad Medjedovic are among the unseeded participants who could make a second-week appearance. 

Alcaraz’s quarter

This section is stacked, home to Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev. Tsitsipas has established himself as one of the title favorites with his recent clay-court results, but he could have to get past Rublev, Alcaraz, and Sinner just to reach the final. Across the whole draw, the most intriguing potential fourth-round matchup is Tsitsipas vs. Rublev. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is on a collision course with Sebastian Korda for the third round. 

Best first-round matchup — Matteo Arnaldi vs. (29) Arthur Fils 

Again?!?! These two rising stars will be colliding for the fourth time in the last 13 months. Arnaldi has won all three of their previous encounters, but he has required final sets on two occasions – including in a wild 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(5), 5-7, 6-4 thriller in the second round of last summer’s U.S. Open. 

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Best potential second-round matchup – (17) Ugo Humbert vs. Zhizhen Zhang 

Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Ben Shelton vs. (21) Felix Auger-Aliassime 

Possible surprises — If Alcaraz is less than 100 percent, at least one quarterfinal spot in this section will be there for the taking. Korda, Ben Shelton, and Felix Auger-Aliassime are among those who could convert on such an opportunity. Whoever wins the Fils-Arnaldi match will also be one to keep an eye on to make a deep run. 

Sinner’s quarter

Could the quarterfinal in this section end up being the top two seeds, Sinner vs. Hubert Hurkacz? Sure—if Sinner is healthy and if Hurkacz’s serve is on fire. But those are big “ifs.” The quarterfinal matchup could just as easily be something like Nicolas Jarry vs. Grigor Dimitrov. Clay-court specialist Sebastian Baez and Rome semifinalist Alejandro Tabilo are also dangerous. 

Best first-round matchup — Stan Wawrinka vs. Andy Murray  

If not for Nadal vs. Zverev, this would be the marquee matchup of the entire first round. The pair of three-time slam champs have faced each other twice in the Roland Garros semifinals and also in the opening round four years ago. Murray leads the overall head-to-head series 13-10. 

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Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Frances Tiafoe vs. Denis Shapovalov 

Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Nicolas Jarry vs. (20) Sebastian Baez 

Possible surprises — It may be all or nothing for Sinner. If 100 percent, the Italian should be the outright favorite since he has clearly been the best player on tour dating back to last fall. If he isn’t, Sinner could lose to anyone—Chris Eubanks in round one, Borna Coric in round two, and either Murray, Wawrinka, or Cameron Norrie in round three. In the latter scenario, Jarry or Grigor Dimitrov would become a likely semifinalist. 

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