Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Djokovic vs. Gasquet

October 4, 2013 Ricky Match previews, Predictions 109

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a blockbuster final matchup in Beijing. They first have to get past Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet, respectively, on Saturday

(3) Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Berdych and Nadal will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they collide in the semifinals of the China Open on Saturday afternoon. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 8-3 on hard courts. He has won a whopping 14 in a row against Berdych since losing a trio of encounters in 2005 and 2006. They most recently faced each other in the Cincinnati semifinals, with Nadal prevailing 7-5, 7-6(4).

That was one of Nadal’s 25 hard-court wins this year, compared to zero losses. The second-ranked Spaniard owns titles on this surface in Indian Wells, Montreal, Cincinnati, and at the U.S. Open. So far this week he has dismissed Santiago Giraldo, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Fabio Fognini–the latter whom he trailed 6-2, 3-0. Berdych booked his spot in the last four with straight-set wins over Pablo Andujar and John Isner (plus a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko). The sixth-ranked Czech, a runner-up last week in Bangkok, is 49-18 for the season. This sets up well for Berdych, who is well-rested and going up against an opponent who banged up his left knee against Fognini. Still, the underdog’s past history and apparent mental block against Nadal may be too much to overcome.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Richard Gasquet

Gasquet and Djokovic will be meeting for the 10th time in their careers at the ATP level. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 8-1, including 6-1 on hard courts. They most recently clashed this summer in the quarterfinals of Montreal, where Djokovic rolled 6-1, 6-2. Gasquet, though, is playing some of the best tennis of his life right now. The 10th-ranked Frenchman reached the U.S. Open semifinals and so far in Beijing he has taken out Florian Mayer, Bernard Tomic, and David Ferrer all in straight sets. He is 44-16 for his 2013 campaign.

Djokovic is bouncing back nicely from his U.S. Open final loss to Nadal. The world No. 1–who will lose that title if Nadal beats Berdych–won a pair of Davis Cup singles rubbers against Canada and he has victories this week over Lukas Rosol, Fernando Verdasco, and Sam Querrey. Surrounding a three-setter against Verdasco, Djokovic destroyed Rosol 6-0, 6-3 and Querrey 6-1, 6-2. Gasquet should give his opponent a tougher test than those two, but his belief against the very best has always been a question mark and Djokovic looks like a man on a mission after his quarterfinal performance.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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109 Comments on Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Djokovic vs. Gasquet

  6. Querrey floundered hopelessly which made Djokovic’s masterclass in tennis look even better perhaps than it was. Gasquet is playing well right now but against Nole in today’s form he doesn’t stand a chance.
    Nole in 2 easy sets.

    Hawkeye: Rafa’s lst serve has fluctuated this week but overall has averaged out around the 60+% mark plus he has come up with aces when he needed them most. I’m more concerned about the return of serve – he struggled against Kolbi and the less said about today the better. Berdy has had an easy path so far and we have to hope he runs true to form and gets uptight facing Rafa.
    Rafa in 3 (with 2 tie breaks)

    Reply

  8. So the match will be on again at 9:30 pm. At least I don’t have to stay up until the wee hours of the morning to see it. This one I don’t want to miss because if Rafa wins, then he will get the #1 ranking.

    The tennis channel will be showing the Japan semifinals live instead of China. I don’t know why they are doing this, given that the #1 and #2 players are at Beijing. They showed the China quarterfinal matches today starting at noon. I didn’t see the first half of the first set of Rafa’s match. So I wanted to watch it all from beginning to end. Rafa had to be worries about the knee. There was no reason for his game to drop off that way.

    Rafa did say in his presser that his knee felt better as the match went on, so he knew that it probably wasn’t serious. That’s why he was able to loosen up and start playing better. I just hope that his knee is okay.

    There’s no question that Rafa will have to play better against Berdy. He said so himself in his presser. He will need to serve much better, return better and be aggressive. If Berdy thinks that Rafa will play that badly again, then he will be in for a big surprise.

    I think they are still showing the China quarterfinal matches on the tennis channel. I don’t really care about Djoker/Querrey. That one was a foregone conclusion. I did see some of Gasquet/Ferrer. That one was a bit of a surprise, but Gasquet is playing well and Ferrer just hasn’t been for a while. I don’t think Gasquet has a chance against Djoker.

    Reply

    • NNY7: The Tennis Channel isn’t even showing the mens’ final live, just the womens’. The mens’ final will be on tape delay. So, ESPN3 will be my friend for the remainder of the tournament. I, too, will be watching at 9:30 pm.

      Reply

      • Jpacnw,

        Do you know why they are showing the Japan matches live and not China? I don’t get it.

        I am just grateful that espn3 will be showing the matches. I assume that coverage of Shanghai will be live. That’s a Masters tournament and there won’t be any other tournament being played at the same time.

        I will be here live blogging during the match.

        Reply

    • NNY7: I read an article that said that CCTV5, a Chinese broadcasting station, secured the rights to the live broadcasts of the China Open. So I’m assuming that means no other station was able to obtain the live rights. There were streams available and in fact, I watched a couple of matches on a CCTV5 stream. I guess that’s why all other venues are streams, not actual TV broadcasts.

      Reply

  10. Until we see how Rafa plays today, we do not know whether his poor performance yesterday was just because of the knee worries or he is simply not playing well. His performance in DC doubles, Giraldo match, Kohli match etc weren’t too good either. Not the awesome form he had displayed in his earlier hard court matches.
    If he beats Berdy today and looks sharp while doing so, I wouldn’t advise Ricky to change his prediction.
    I want Rafa to beat Berdy somehow even if not playing well. It’s ok if he loses to Nole in the final. Rafa will be # 1. Nole fans would be happy and come back to forums and hopefully would be more humble than before!!!
    Right now we have just ed, Deucey and Alex as Muzz fans, Two Fed fans: abhirf and sana ( earlier Sienna or seventeen now posing as a fan of Delpo, Muzz and Dimitrov).
    Of course I don’t regret sana’s absence . But I do wish more fans of Muzz, Fed and Nole start posting here regularly.. I miss Twinge and zare and even chr18!!!
    Coming back to Rafa, I am still optimistic. His knee was never perfect. As long as he feels confident about his movement and does not fear causing further damage to his knee, we can still hope for the invincible Rafa!!!!!
    Vamos Rafa!!! I want to see you get your no. 1 today. Go for it Champ!!!

    Reply

    • holdserve,

      I can understand Rafa worrying after banging up his knee. I just wish it wasn’t his bad knee. I hope it’s okay. For myself, I have nothing to compare Rafa’s performance against Fognini, because I wasn’t able to watch his previous two matches. This is the first chance I have had to see him. But from what I have been reading in the comments here about Rafa’s game, he seemed to be playing okay. He did beat Kohls in two tight sets. I thought it might go to three sets.

      Rafa knows that he will have to play better to beat Berdy. I don’t think we want to rely on Berdy coming out and having one of his brain cramps. He might come out with some confidence, since he watched Rafa play Fognini.

      I just want Rafa to win this match. Like you, I don’t care all that much about the final.

      By the way, who is sana? I thought that I remembered someone posting here some time ago with that screen name. Are you saying that this was Sienna or seventeen? Sienna and seventeen were the same person. Sienna usually posts on tennis-x. But she did post last year on TT under Sienna along with Fleur, who was maxi.

      We haven’t had any real problems with the trolls here. But I join with you and others in missing some of the regulars from TT. I liked zare. I don’t think we have any Djoker fans posting here.

      I would love to get under Twinge’s skin by reminding him of how often he said that Rafa was through. I would also love to get at chr18! But he used to go into hiding when Rafa started winning.

      Reply

  12. Now that RIcky mentioned Shanghai, I checked out the ATP website. Djoker has Fed in his quarter of the draw. Rafa has Wawrinka. Delpo and Berdy are in the other half. Unfortunately, Isner is in Rafa’s quarter. He could meet him in his second match, I think. Also, Raonic is in there.

    That can wait until next week.

    Reply

  13. I think Rafa’s Shanghai draw is more loaded . Dolgo, Isner, Wawrinka/Raonic, Berdych,/ Del Potro..
    Ricky, why do you consider Djokovic’s draw to be more loaded? Federer? Tsonga? .

    Reply

  15. holdserve,

    I am with you. I think Rafa’s draw is more loaded.

    Rafa just broke Berdy in his first service game. I noticed Rafa is standing much closer on the baseline and just inside to receive serve.

    Now Rafa serving.

    Reply

  21. Ricky you did not explain why you consider Djokovic’s section to be loaded.
    Frankly it is just the kind of draw which will open up beautifully unless Federer discovers his old form. There isn’t anybody else who looks likely to trouble Nole..

    Reply

  22. Rafa just broke Berdy again. Both playing extremely well.

    I noticed that Rafa is standing back a little and then taking a step or two closer to the baseline to receive serve. On the second serve, he is definitely going in even more.

    Reply

    • ^^Being facetious, of course. Berdy is a not a sneaky guy, plays it straight down the line pretty much. He must have tweaked something there…………

      Reply

  26. Berdy is not above a little gamesmanship but I reckon this one is genuine. Rather doubt he will w’/d though and hand No.1 to Rafa without a fight.

    Reply

  27. Hard courts are injurious to health!
    But Berdy could be trying to get some breathing space by taking a MTO. Even Delpo (supposedly a wonderful guy) did that against Rafa in 2011 Wimbledon, creating a big racket and going off in the middle of Rafa’s game although I think a MTO can be taken only at the end of a game.

    Reply

    • If we had known we could have celebrated Rafa’s ascendency yesterday!

      Sorry for Berdy, I think he took the sensible decision, the way Rafa was playing in the match, Berdy would have lost anyway.

      @Conspirator, tell your friends on “the other site” that Rafa knows his place alright, it’s at the top of the pile!

      Reply

  31. That’s it. Berdy retired. Not the way Rafa wanted to get the #1 ranking, but it’s happened!

    It’s a shame because it was looking like a really good match. Rafa was playing so much better than last night.

    Reply

    • ed251137, Rafa was on fire, it was clear in those 6 games they played. It means he is feeling okay in his movement, which is brilliant. From what Uncle Toni said, regaining #1 and winning WTF are Rafa’s end of season objectives. He has regained #1 so he will be calmer and will play with confidence tomorrow. Berdy was on his way to losing this match regardless.

      Reply

    • I don’t think the way Rafa won the match matters at all. Rafa knows what he has to do to beat whoever he plays in the final. When Nole won the AO2011, he also had a couple of W/Os, that did not dampen his confidence at all.

      Reply

  33. Game, set, match (set and match were very short!) and the number one spot – Rafa Nadaaaal!!!!

    So, Rafa will take the top spot in the ATP rankings when they are updated on Monday!!!!

    VAMOS Rafa for all you’ve done
    to be hailed once again as the world number one!!!!

    Vamoooos!!!!

    Reply

  35. Well I am not complaining. I wanted Rafa to be no. 1 and it has happened! Yeh!
    Now the final doesn’t matter. Nole is no. 2!!! And unless Rafa retires for the rest of this season, Rafa is year-end no. 1!!!

    Reply

  37. CONGRATULATIONS TO THE RAFAN FAMILY! RAFA IS BACK WHERE HE BELONGS, #1!

    CONGRATULATIONS TO RAFA!

    Now the bile flood-gates will open from the Fedbots…………

    Reply

  39. Did anyone else notice that some people at the stadium were wearing masks over their mouths? I’m sure some of the players must be bothered by the air quality.

    Reply

  40. RT @juanjo_sports: “Interestingly enough, back in 2008 Nadal beat Lapentti to reach #1, and faced Djokovic after that.”

    Reply

    • ^^It was in Cincinnati, and Djokovic won in easy straight sets. We may see history repeating itself simply because Rafa may be emotionally spent after attaining such a huge goal. Honestly, I wouldn’t care………..mission accomplished for Rafa!

      I want Rafa to save himself for Shanghai, go hell for leather there………..

      Reply

  42. Rafa became the world No. 1 for the first time on August 18, 2008 – on Monday after winning the singles gold medal at the Beijing Olympics.
    Now, 5 years later, he becomes world No.1 again (for the third time), playing a tournament in the same town. Beijing has been a great place for Rafa!

    Reply

  45. Congratulations Rafa! You did it!

    Now it’s on to the final. Whatever happens, it’s all good. But Rafa really raised his level of play in this match with Berdy. He seemed very focused, forehand was much more accurate, backhand working well, too. His serve stats were not good again. Something to work on before Shanghai.

    Reply

  48. WP seems to now have a mind of it’s own with my posts, deciding whether I’m nadline or clayqueen. I’ll just run with it, because I don’t want to run the risk of being spammed again.

    So, forgive me, ritb when I post as clayqueen.

    Reply

    • clayqueen@October 5, 2013 at 7:00 am
      WordPress:
      —Automoderated
      …all commentors whose details are not already in the database must have their FIRST comment approved by a moderator before their subsequent comments will automatically be published (N.B.this includes changes to IP numbers that happen automatically with most ISPs, so regular commentors will also be caught sometimes)
      plus a number of contentious and/or common spam words or more than two links per comment trigger moderation automatically—

      Reply

      • clayqueen@October 5, 2013 at 7:00 am

        One more thing: “must have their FIRST comment approved by a moderator” means that Ricky has to give his approval. If he is “out of office”, you have to wait.

        Reply

      • I think the problem is, the log in details is accessible on Tenngrand, so sometimes a letter gets added to the user name inadvertently, when the cursor skips into the box, then it has to wait for moderation; when you try to post the next time with the correct user name, it’s then treated as spam.

        I just have to be more careful.

        Reply

  49. Rafa and Serena are the two peas in the ATP/WTA pod. They have their ups and downs including injuries, but when all is said and done, they are the King & Queen of this era in tennis.

    Reply

    • @Sanju, you don’t want Rafa to win Shanghai anymore? I thought you said you want him to win one more Masters so he has the outright record for most Masters won in a season, like I do……….

      Reply

      • I want him to win everything RITB :-)..But topmost priority is WTF and AO..which are a MUST..rest all are icing on the cake 🙂

        Yes 1 more Masters will be super so that he has the lone record..

        Just tempering my expectations..cant be too greedy to want everything.

        Lets say if given a choice between Shanghai and holding lone record for Masters in a season v/s WTF, I will pick WTF

        Reply

  51. A classic response from Rafa:

    “[This is] a great year, one of the best years of my career without any doubt,” sad Nadal. “[It] sure is special be back to the top position of the rankings after more than a half year without playing tennis.”

    He said he was prouder of the hard work and results that earned him the No. 1 ranking, rather than the number itself. “At the end, it’s just a number… What [makes] me happy is [everything] I did to be back where I am today.”

    It’s not the status and trappings of being No.1 that matters for him. It is the simple achievement in overcoming all the odds that gives him so much satisfaction.

    Reply

  52. 😀 😀 😀 hugeeeee congrats to rafans !! this is MASSIVE…the greatest ever run to world no.1 ? one could make a strong case..

    rafa’s cumulative points in 8 months > djokovic’s cumulative points in 12 months !

    VAMOS !

    Reply

  53. Also as Rafa says,its not yet over..Rafa needs to accumulate atleast 1000 more points to be sure of wrapping year as No 1.

    1000 from 4000 points up from grabs..def possible

    When are the 150 points from Chile Open gonna be added?

    Reply

    • Sanju@October 5, 2013 at 11:49 am
      The 150 points from Vina del Mar (Chile Open) will be added, if Rafa doesn’t play in Basel or he earns less than 150 points there.

      —2013 ATP Rulebook
      Commitment Players. The year-end Emirates ATP Rankings is based on calculating, for each player, his total points from the four (4) Grand Slams, the eight (8) mandatory ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals of the ranking period, and his best SIX (6) results from all ATP World Tour 500, ATP World Tour 250, ATP Challenger Tour and Futures tournaments.—

      Rafa’s ‘SIX best results’ during last 52 weeks include:
      1) Monte Carlo 2013 – 600 points (a non-mandatory tournament; it’s counted as one of four ATP-500 tournaments a player has to play)
      2) Barcelona 2013 – 500 points
      3) 2013 – 500 points
      4) Beijing 2013 – 300 points (by now)
      5) Sao Paolo 2013 – 250 points
      6) Valencia 2012 – 0 points (penalty, which will expire on October 28; the slot will be filled with the points from the Vina del Mar or Basel)

      Reply

      • Thanks augusta.. You always have the answer to everything?

        BTW Basel is 500 right?

        S Rafans, if Rafa withdraws from Basel or Paris, he atleast gets 150 points..good news..any point addition is welcome.

        Anyone thinks Nole will add a 500 (Valencia) to his calendar to keep pressure on Rafa?

        Reply

      • Sanju@October 5, 2013 at 2:49 pm
        —You always have the answer to everything?—
        Nope! Only the answers I can find in the databases. 🙂

        –if Rafa withdraws from Basel or Paris, he at least gets 150 points—
        If Rafa withdraws from the Paris Masters 1000, he’ll get nothing (except a possible ranking points penalty)!

        The ATP website:
        —Question. What if a player is injured and can’t play in a Grand Slam or ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament?
        Answer. If eligible to play in one of the Grand Slam or ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments, a player must count the points from these tournaments, even if it is ‘a zero pointer’ because he missed the event. Just as in Formula One and numerous other sports, if a competitor misses a race or an event, he loses his chance to earn points.
        Players with direct acceptance who do not play an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament will be SUSPENDED from a subsequent ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event, which will be the next HIGHEST POINTS earned ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event within the next 12 months. If an injured player is on site within the first three days of a tournament to conduct PROMOTIONAL activities over a two-day period, a suspension will not be enforced but a 0-pointer will be counted on a player’s ranking.—

        Reply

  54. as far as today’s match is concerned, I think this was the ideal scenario from rafa’s point of view ! He started the match playing really well and ended the match at 4-2 40-15 playing great ! I am really happy about his ROS and backhand….just needs to do a little more with his forehand…

    I am glad he has has this short match…he can rest.. we have shanghai coming up and its too much tennis in the path for rafa… Ideal scenario for me this

    Reply

  55. Tomorrow will be a real battle of willpower for both men. He should, but I doubt he will, withdraw from Shanghai. I’m fearful going for that could prove to be one tournament too many this year.

    Reply

  56. yup, I am also scared… Rafa will play shanghai… he should and I think he is going to skip paris …not sure about basel, I think he is going to play it because of his commitment there

    Reply

    • Guys, at this stage I am ready for surprises from Rafa. Remember how we all hoped he would skip Cincy after winning in Montreal so he could be “fresh” for USO? Well, look what happened……

      Let’s quit fretting, look forward to a good final tomorrow and pray his knees cooperate and let him play freely wherever he wants to play.

      Reply

    • Ed and vamosrafa..why so much fret and nervousness? I am sure he and his team now what is best..I am sure he wants to wrap the YE No 1 firmmly in his pocket..the minute he does that..he will take it easy..Relax..have faith.

      Reply

  57. I keep thinking of Shanghai (I think it was 2009) when it was like a war zone with a record number of withdrawal and retirements. At this point in the season the tour has taken its toll they are particularly susceptible to aggravating pre-existing conditions or picking up a new injury.

    Reply

  58. That was a very muted reaction from Nole after winning the match. Hopefully he has finally learnt the OTT bellicose celebrations don’t go down well, or maybe he’s just chastened by the demotion to No.2

    Reply

    • ^^^Maybe finally sinking in that huffing and puffing before a match against Rafa and then going on to lose makes him look silly. The way he has entered any match against Rafa till now, post 2011, was as if the possibility of losing did not exist.

      Well, now he knows better, hence the faux humility.

      Reply

  59. C’mon Ricky, change your finals prediction already! Rafa banged his knee in the q’s against the Fog, Novak’s a one-man wrecking crew……..can only mean one thing, no?

    #DoingTheAnti-jinxings
    #Where’s@willmw101

    Reply

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