Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Djokovic vs. Gasquet

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a blockbuster final matchup in Beijing. They first have to get past Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet, respectively, on Saturday

(3) Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Berdych and Nadal will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they collide in the semifinals of the China Open on Saturday afternoon. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 8-3 on hard courts. He has won a whopping 14 in a row against Berdych since losing a trio of encounters in 2005 and 2006. They most recently faced each other in the Cincinnati semifinals, with Nadal prevailing 7-5, 7-6(4).

That was one of Nadal’s 25 hard-court wins this year, compared to zero losses. The second-ranked Spaniard owns titles on this surface in Indian Wells, Montreal, Cincinnati, and at the U.S. Open. So far this week he has dismissed Santiago Giraldo, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Fabio Fognini–the latter whom he trailed 6-2, 3-0. Berdych booked his spot in the last four with straight-set wins over Pablo Andujar and John Isner (plus a walkover from Nikolay Davydenko). The sixth-ranked Czech, a runner-up last week in Bangkok, is 49-18 for the season. This sets up well for Berdych, who is well-rested and going up against an opponent who banged up his left knee against Fognini. Still, the underdog’s past history and apparent mental block against Nadal may be too much to overcome.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Richard Gasquet

Gasquet and Djokovic will be meeting for the 10th time in their careers at the ATP level. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 8-1, including 6-1 on hard courts. They most recently clashed this summer in the quarterfinals of Montreal, where Djokovic rolled 6-1, 6-2. Gasquet, though, is playing some of the best tennis of his life right now. The 10th-ranked Frenchman reached the U.S. Open semifinals and so far in Beijing he has taken out Florian Mayer, Bernard Tomic, and David Ferrer all in straight sets. He is 44-16 for his 2013 campaign.

Djokovic is bouncing back nicely from his U.S. Open final loss to Nadal. The world No. 1–who will lose that title if Nadal beats Berdych–won a pair of Davis Cup singles rubbers against Canada and he has victories this week over Lukas Rosol, Fernando Verdasco, and Sam Querrey. Surrounding a three-setter against Verdasco, Djokovic destroyed Rosol 6-0, 6-3 and Querrey 6-1, 6-2. Gasquet should give his opponent a tougher test than those two, but his belief against the very best has always been a question mark and Djokovic looks like a man on a mission after his quarterfinal performance.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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40 Comments on Beijing SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Djokovic vs. Gasquet

  1. Djoker’s section is loaded, but most of it is on the other side (Federer’s). Djokovic won’t have a hard match until the QFs.

  2. Rafa became the world No. 1 for the first time on August 18, 2008 – on Monday after winning the singles gold medal at the Beijing Olympics.
    Now, 5 years later, he becomes world No.1 again (for the third time), playing a tournament in the same town. Beijing has been a great place for Rafa!

  3. Congratulations Rafa! You did it!

    Now it’s on to the final. Whatever happens, it’s all good. But Rafa really raised his level of play in this match with Berdy. He seemed very focused, forehand was much more accurate, backhand working well, too. His serve stats were not good again. Something to work on before Shanghai.

  4. WP seems to now have a mind of it’s own with my posts, deciding whether I’m nadline or clayqueen. I’ll just run with it, because I don’t want to run the risk of being spammed again.

    So, forgive me, ritb when I post as clayqueen.

    • clayqueen@October 5, 2013 at 7:00 am
      WordPress:
      —Automoderated
      …all commentors whose details are not already in the database must have their FIRST comment approved by a moderator before their subsequent comments will automatically be published (N.B.this includes changes to IP numbers that happen automatically with most ISPs, so regular commentors will also be caught sometimes)
      plus a number of contentious and/or common spam words or more than two links per comment trigger moderation automatically—

      • clayqueen@October 5, 2013 at 7:00 am

        One more thing: “must have their FIRST comment approved by a moderator” means that Ricky has to give his approval. If he is “out of office”, you have to wait.

      • I think the problem is, the log in details is accessible on Tenngrand, so sometimes a letter gets added to the user name inadvertently, when the cursor skips into the box, then it has to wait for moderation; when you try to post the next time with the correct user name, it’s then treated as spam.

        I just have to be more careful.

  5. Rafa and Serena are the two peas in the ATP/WTA pod. They have their ups and downs including injuries, but when all is said and done, they are the King & Queen of this era in tennis.

    • @Sanju, you don’t want Rafa to win Shanghai anymore? I thought you said you want him to win one more Masters so he has the outright record for most Masters won in a season, like I do……….

      • I want him to win everything RITB :-)..But topmost priority is WTF and AO..which are a MUST..rest all are icing on the cake 🙂

        Yes 1 more Masters will be super so that he has the lone record..

        Just tempering my expectations..cant be too greedy to want everything.

        Lets say if given a choice between Shanghai and holding lone record for Masters in a season v/s WTF, I will pick WTF

  6. A classic response from Rafa:

    “[This is] a great year, one of the best years of my career without any doubt,” sad Nadal. “[It] sure is special be back to the top position of the rankings after more than a half year without playing tennis.”

    He said he was prouder of the hard work and results that earned him the No. 1 ranking, rather than the number itself. “At the end, it’s just a number… What [makes] me happy is [everything] I did to be back where I am today.”

    It’s not the status and trappings of being No.1 that matters for him. It is the simple achievement in overcoming all the odds that gives him so much satisfaction.

  7. 😀 😀 😀 hugeeeee congrats to rafans !! this is MASSIVE…the greatest ever run to world no.1 ? one could make a strong case..

    rafa’s cumulative points in 8 months > djokovic’s cumulative points in 12 months !

    VAMOS !

  8. Also as Rafa says,its not yet over..Rafa needs to accumulate atleast 1000 more points to be sure of wrapping year as No 1.

    1000 from 4000 points up from grabs..def possible

    When are the 150 points from Chile Open gonna be added?

    • Sanju@October 5, 2013 at 11:49 am
      The 150 points from Vina del Mar (Chile Open) will be added, if Rafa doesn’t play in Basel or he earns less than 150 points there.

      —2013 ATP Rulebook
      Commitment Players. The year-end Emirates ATP Rankings is based on calculating, for each player, his total points from the four (4) Grand Slams, the eight (8) mandatory ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals of the ranking period, and his best SIX (6) results from all ATP World Tour 500, ATP World Tour 250, ATP Challenger Tour and Futures tournaments.—

      Rafa’s ‘SIX best results’ during last 52 weeks include:
      1) Monte Carlo 2013 – 600 points (a non-mandatory tournament; it’s counted as one of four ATP-500 tournaments a player has to play)
      2) Barcelona 2013 – 500 points
      3) 2013 – 500 points
      4) Beijing 2013 – 300 points (by now)
      5) Sao Paolo 2013 – 250 points
      6) Valencia 2012 – 0 points (penalty, which will expire on October 28; the slot will be filled with the points from the Vina del Mar or Basel)

      • Thanks augusta.. You always have the answer to everything?

        BTW Basel is 500 right?

        S Rafans, if Rafa withdraws from Basel or Paris, he atleast gets 150 points..good news..any point addition is welcome.

        Anyone thinks Nole will add a 500 (Valencia) to his calendar to keep pressure on Rafa?

      • Sanju@October 5, 2013 at 2:49 pm
        —You always have the answer to everything?—
        Nope! Only the answers I can find in the databases. 🙂

        –if Rafa withdraws from Basel or Paris, he at least gets 150 points—
        If Rafa withdraws from the Paris Masters 1000, he’ll get nothing (except a possible ranking points penalty)!

        The ATP website:
        —Question. What if a player is injured and can’t play in a Grand Slam or ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament?
        Answer. If eligible to play in one of the Grand Slam or ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments, a player must count the points from these tournaments, even if it is ‘a zero pointer’ because he missed the event. Just as in Formula One and numerous other sports, if a competitor misses a race or an event, he loses his chance to earn points.
        Players with direct acceptance who do not play an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament will be SUSPENDED from a subsequent ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event, which will be the next HIGHEST POINTS earned ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event within the next 12 months. If an injured player is on site within the first three days of a tournament to conduct PROMOTIONAL activities over a two-day period, a suspension will not be enforced but a 0-pointer will be counted on a player’s ranking.—

  9. as far as today’s match is concerned, I think this was the ideal scenario from rafa’s point of view ! He started the match playing really well and ended the match at 4-2 40-15 playing great ! I am really happy about his ROS and backhand….just needs to do a little more with his forehand…

    I am glad he has has this short match…he can rest.. we have shanghai coming up and its too much tennis in the path for rafa… Ideal scenario for me this

  10. Tomorrow will be a real battle of willpower for both men. He should, but I doubt he will, withdraw from Shanghai. I’m fearful going for that could prove to be one tournament too many this year.

  11. yup, I am also scared… Rafa will play shanghai… he should and I think he is going to skip paris …not sure about basel, I think he is going to play it because of his commitment there

    • Guys, at this stage I am ready for surprises from Rafa. Remember how we all hoped he would skip Cincy after winning in Montreal so he could be “fresh” for USO? Well, look what happened……

      Let’s quit fretting, look forward to a good final tomorrow and pray his knees cooperate and let him play freely wherever he wants to play.

    • Ed and vamosrafa..why so much fret and nervousness? I am sure he and his team now what is best..I am sure he wants to wrap the YE No 1 firmmly in his pocket..the minute he does that..he will take it easy..Relax..have faith.

  12. I keep thinking of Shanghai (I think it was 2009) when it was like a war zone with a record number of withdrawal and retirements. At this point in the season the tour has taken its toll they are particularly susceptible to aggravating pre-existing conditions or picking up a new injury.

  13. That was a very muted reaction from Nole after winning the match. Hopefully he has finally learnt the OTT bellicose celebrations don’t go down well, or maybe he’s just chastened by the demotion to No.2

    • ^^^Maybe finally sinking in that huffing and puffing before a match against Rafa and then going on to lose makes him look silly. The way he has entered any match against Rafa till now, post 2011, was as if the possibility of losing did not exist.

      Well, now he knows better, hence the faux humility.

  14. C’mon Ricky, change your finals prediction already! Rafa banged his knee in the q’s against the Fog, Novak’s a one-man wrecking crew……..can only mean one thing, no?

    #DoingTheAnti-jinxings
    #Where’s@willmw101

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