Dubai final preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Rublev

With Daniil Medvedev in Novak Djokovic’s half of the draw and Andrey Rublev in a slump heading into this week, an all-Russian final in the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships between the longtime friends seemed unlikely.

That will be the matchup, however, as Medvedev and Rublev are set to battle for the title on Saturday night.

Rublev’s appearance in the championship match was especially improbable when he faced for all intents and purposes an insurmountable deficit against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round. The world No. 6 was down quintuple match point at 6-1 in the second-set tiebreaker but stormed back for a 1-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(3) victory. Rublev, who was just 5-5 for the season prior to arriving in Dubai, also advanced with victories over Filip Krajinovic, Botic van de Zandschulp, and Alexander Zverev.

The February story was a much different one for Medvedev, who roared into Dubai with a ton of momentum. Thanks to back-to-back titles in Rotterdam and Doha, his match winning stood at nine. It is now up to 13 following defeats of Matteo Arnaldi, Alexander Bublik, Borna Coric, and Djokovic. Medvedev has not dropped a single set this week, and his 6-4, 6-4 upset of the top-ranked Serb on Friday was particularly impressive.

“I’m playing [well] right now,” Medvedev assured. “That’s the most important (thing). Andrey was not playing that [well] before this week. He faced five match points in the second round. But that’s how tennis is; he got the confidence [from that] match. I need to be at my best tomorrow. I know that Andrey can play amazing tennis He beat me the last two times; tough battles. I’m ready for a great final.”

It is true that Rublev has won two in a row against his countryman, but both of those required final sets–including a 6-7(7), 6-3, 7-6(7) result at the Nitto ATP Finals last fall. Prior to those two losses, Medvedev had won their first five meetings at the professional level and all 12 of their sets.

Medvedev is back to his best and is on his way to restoring order to the ATP rankings. He will likely restore order to this head-to-head matchup, as well.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

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