Rogers Cup final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Raonic

Milos Raonic will try to deliver a surprising Montreal title to the home Canadian crowd on Sunday. Standing in his way, though, is Rafael Nadal–undefeated on hard courts this season.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (11) Milos Raonic

Nadal and Raonic will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for the Rogers Cup title on Sunday afternoon. All three of their previous meetings have gone Nadal’s way and he has refused to yield even a single set to Raonic. In fact, the Canadian has never even forced a tiebreaker. Nadal prevailed twice on hard courts (both in Tokyo) in 2010 and 2011 before cruising 6-4, 6-0 earlier this year on the clay courts of Barcelona.

Taking seven months off throughout the conclusion of 2012 and start of 2013 has proven to be a good decision for Nadal and his knees. Case in point: he has not lost a single match on hard courts–traditionally his worst surface–this season. The fourth-ranked Spaniard has only played two such tournaments, but it is an impressive feat nonetheless. Nadal triumphed in Indian Wells and so far in Montreal he has dismissed Jesse Levine, Jerzy Janowicz, Marinko Matosevic, and Novak Djokovic. He had been the only man without the loss of a set prior to outlasting Djokovic in a third-set tiebreaker on Saturday night. The fourth seed is now 47-3 for the year, which already features seven titles.

Nadal edited
Raonic has made a memorable run of his own, ending the dream week of fellow Canadian Vasek Pospisil in the process. Prior to edging Pospisil in a third-set tiebreaker on Saturday afternoon, Raonic took out Jeremy Chardy, Mikhail Youzhny, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Ernests Gulbis. The run has been anything but smooth for the world No. 13, but he will take anything he can get at this point. After all, Raonic had been 2-5 in his last seven matches prior to his arrival in Montreal.

Raonic
Only home-court advantage bodes well for the underdog’s chances in this one. His play has not been particularly impressive relative to what a berth in a Masters final would indicate and his past struggles against Nadal are glaring. As if that is not enough, Nadal is playing the same kind of aggressive hard-court tennis that carried him to the 2010 U.S. Open title. The pressure won’t be on Raonic, but it will still be a tough situation in his first Masters title match having never previously been to even a semifinal. Unless Raonic delivers one of his best-ever serving days, he will be hard-pressed to make it competitive.

Pick: Nadal 6-4, 6-4

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56 Comments on Rogers Cup final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Raonic

  1. Oh Ricky, pl always pick against Rafa! Then when you are proved wrong, Rafa’s win is so much sweeter than just a routine win!!!

  2. But I suppose in the instant case try as you might you could not oblige Rafa fans and you were forced to predict Rafa would win. What a pity!

  3. raonic was barely able to deliver 2nd serves against pospisil in the tie break..he’l wilt against rafa…and his coach is rafa’s enemy !

    rafa to win in 2 sets for 25th masters 1000 and 4th of the year… 6-4 6-3

  4. I am getting nervous reading these predictions. I am always cautious when it comes to the finals of a tournament. My only concern is that Rafa will not have much time to recover from his latest battle with Djoker. Will he have enough to get the win?

    Raonic was lucky to get this far. He should not even be in the final. Gulbis should have beaten him for sure. He was lucky to get past Pospisil. He hasn’t been playing well at all. Is there any possibility that he will be inspired being in front of his home crowd? Or will the occasion overwhelm him? I don’t like taking anything for granted.

    People are getting carried away. Just a few days ago some here were thinking Rafa couldn’t beat Djoker. But I knew he had a shot. I liked the way Rafa was playing and thought Djoker didn’t look that great. Gasquet didn’t bother to show up and really play. Djoker should have lost to Istomin.

    I will predict Rafa in two sets. I am not going to predict the exact score.

  5. “In 2010, I was like 200 in the world,” said Raonic. “I held my own to a certain extent. He was a much, much better player than I was.

    “I think 2011 when I played him at the same tournament, the situation was the same. It was my first tournament, other than Davis Cup, back from hip surgery. He was far beyond me in terms of level.

    “I think it’s a different situation this time around.”

    So he thinks he can compete hard with rafa in a final here? I see

  6. I have never been impressed with his game…there are many young boys better than him.. rafa’s ball striking is even better than yesterday…yes he is not under pressure but still he aint making any errors

  7. Ricky…..lol!!!

    By now Rafa is probably thinking………….seriously man, seriously?!!! Why dont you people just give me my cheque and send me on my way?!!! I have another match in Cincy tomorrow!!!

    Im a stinker, aint I?!!!

  8. @monalysa, hahaha good one…. I am glad raonic is falling back to earth on his face..his journey to the final was so overhyped…delpo was injured …pospisil was fatigued… dont think he has played any special tennis at all..just has not come up against a fine returner… and his comments before the match sounded as if he has reached new heights and now he can finally challenge nadal djokovic … LOL…I hope he is learning a bitter lesson and so is is bitter coach

  9. Rafa is a genius…his serving pattern and also the pattern of his groundies are tailored according to different opponents…. usually Mats Wilander is full od crap but I 100% agree with him when said that rafa is the best tactician among the big 4…the ultimate problem solver is rafa…

  10. I cant believe Raonic actually admitted about his toilet break…………….i never!!!

    Dont get me wrong, Im happy to see these young guns step us to the challenges of playing a top player! I am happy that Raonic steps up into the top ten for the first time but they need to be careful how they move up, not by any means necessary!!!!

    All these years that Rafa beat up on Lubi, Lubi still has not been able to get over it but instead he tries to see if he can exact revenge vicariously through Raonic……..hahaha!!!! Good luck!

    • Hypothetically, it was a toilet break, technically it was not. You see, Raonic did not actually need to “go”, he just wanted to get off the court and let off some steam, he said. So yeah, that was another cheating episode there……..

  11. WOOHOOO 😀 never in doubt though 🙂 6-2 6-2 was a bashing…raonic fared better in 2010 when he was ‘ranked 200’ HAHAHAHAHA

    #25th masters 1000
    #58th career title
    #7th masters 1000 on hard court , clay specialist right?
    #8010 race points in 2013, 1420 lead over djokovic
    #10th final and 8th title of the year
    #crosses 56 million mark in career prize money
    #equals his career best performance in masters 1000 in single season by winning 4 titles
    #a perfect 10-0 on hard courts in 2013 😀

    WOOOHOOOOO

  12. so rafa has won a fast hard court masters 1000 event more times than roger federer !!!

    so what do you have to offer now rafa? conquering cincy?

    the speech from raonic was not bad though…it was good 🙂

  13. RT @NeilHarmanTimes: “And we have not seen hide nor hair of Steve Darcis since the opening day of Wimbledon. Been injured ever since”

    That’s what beating Rafa does to you……………..

  14. @ vamosrafa…………….i thought I heard wrong……………..that was terrible!!!! Thats not even funny, calling Rafa Roger upon receiving his trophy………………are these people mad?!!!!

  15. I heard the commentators discussing Raonic’s “toilet break” right before the match, Interestingly they didn’t see anything wrong with it! I don’t get it! He only went off the court because he had to try to get it together. The guy is a cheater as far as I am concerned. The fact that he openly admits to these things means that he is either clueless, stupid or doesn’t care.

    He got schooled by Rafa! Way out of his league! Raonic shouldn’t have even been in the final. Gulbis should have beaten him, Delpo only lost because he was injured and Pospisil? Raonic barely beat him!

    This is an amazing year for Rafa! You can see how happy he was at the end of the match. This is one of those moments that I just want to enjoy. But there is more tennis. I want Rafa to play Cincy. Absolutely! More rankings points. He’s never done well there, he could still use the match play.

    Rafa was brilliant in this match. Scary good!

  16. yes NNY, I too want him to play in cincy and build more momeuntum and gain more points..i am hungry for that no.1 ranking

  17. why are people so anxious for Rafa to get back to No.1? IMO he does not need that extra pressure. He prefers not to be regarded as the favourite.

    • ed,
      I don’t think it’s putting pressure on Rafa to want him to get the #1 ranking. Rafa has his goals and decides for himself what he wants to accomplish. I don’t see anything wrong with fans wanting to see him back in the top spot again. If it happens fine, if not it isn’t the end of the world.

      To be honest, my primary wish is for Rafa to win slams. That will establish his legacy and greatness in this sport. However, I do think he has a rare opportunity, given that he has no points to defend for the rest of the year.

      Rafa can handle playing two hard court tournaments, then have a week off and play the USO. After that he can take off as much time as he wants. It’s up to him.

      Rafa may not like being regarded as the favorite, but his win at Montreal is going to put him right up there as one of the favorites to win the USO. Of course Djoker and Andy aren’t going anywhere. They are both going to be favorites at the USO. I know Rafa loves to be under the radar, but that isn’t always possible.

  18. Just watching the replay. Wasn’t able to watch it live. Clearly a reality check for Raonic!!!!!!

    Just been reading about the ‘bathroom’ break. Shades of Djokovic’s early approach to bending the rules to try to find a way to win other than by the quality of his tennis. Raonic will have lost a lot of respect with his questionable tactics in the SF.

    #TrueClassWillOut

  19. Dont worry he will sink back to his true level in due course……………there are other far more promising players in the younger generation.

  20. I shudder to think that new generation of players are not going to try to take advantage of the high level of tennis before them by enbrassing the challenges that the top four present. I mean i cannot honeslty say that I see any up and comer that will carry the mantle after the top four retire! By 18 Rafa was well on his way to his first GS yet there is no one yet that I can identify to take over when the top four leave the sport. This is really troubling! What is it with these youngsters nowadays?!! So so lamentalbe!

  21. I am not really too keen on him playing Cincy. The prospect of the knee flaring up is too risky. I do not want to endure the indifference of watching tennis without Rafa around. The USO is a greater prize. The # 1 ranking is secondary.

    • vmk1,

      We don’t know how the knee is. Only Rafa and his team know. He has been out of the game for five or six weeks. He needs to play. No way does Rafa want to get knocked out early at the USO.

      He isn’t playing Cincy for the #1 ranking. There is a rankings thread on vb and they have been working the numbers. He isn’t going to get the #1 ranking before the USO. However, he could get the #2 ranking if he wins Cincy and if Murray doesn’t make it to the semis. It’s not likely both those things will happen, so he most likely will be #3 at the USO. But he needs match play. Getting more rankings points will help to get closer. Then if he can get to the final or win the USO, he will get a ton of points.

  22. Hi All,
    First happy to see all of you here, see most of the regulars from TT here.

    Congrats Rafans!! Our boy did it and how!! So proud of him!!

    Won 2 HC Masters this year, shut the crap out of people who said he hasn’t won a HC since Sep 2010 and hasn’t beaten Djokovic on HC since Nov 2010, only tennis athlete to win 1 slam/year for 9 years in a row, only one to win a particular slam 8 times, 25 Masters and counting, No 3 in the world from No 5 , 8 titles already and 10 finals /11 tournaments played .. so many things to be so happy and proud about.

    Hope the rest of the season pans out beautifully for him too .

    Regards

    Sanju

  23. Well I think he should go for the No 1 ranking, I bet he wants to. It doesn’t matter how long he holds it after he gets it, but if he does get it and hopefully this year itself and ends year as No 1, it will be a case study for perseverance, determination, rising like a phoenix from the ashes 🙂

    And yes he should target the slams and win titles, No 1 ranking will follow.

    I knew he is going to thrash Raonic today, just his tweet before the match saying ‘ We are ready’ indicated he is going to whack the hell out of his opponent and nothing can stop him from getting the title. I did ot eve bother to stay up post 12:30 AM India time to watch it, will see highlights today 🙂

  24. Sanju,

    You must have read my mind! I was just thinking about you! So great to see you here! Yes, there are many of us from TT here talking away. Without the trolls!

    I think Rafa should do what he wants to do. I said on vb that he is a man on a mission. If he wants the #1 ranking, then I say go for it! Now he has his sights set on the USO.

    Rafa needs to play! If he wasn’t up to it, he wouldn’t go to Cincy. But if he is going to win the USO, then he needs to make sure he’s match ready. Five matches won’t do it.

    Let him play! He’s never won Cincy and not been past the quarterfinals, I believe. He just had a great win over Djoker and won Montreal. He is feeling confident, playing some of the best aggressive tennis we have seen from him. So let him go!

  25. If Rafa wins Cincy, lots of people are going to make him favorite for USO!
    If he wins Cincy and USO, he is practically assured of no. 1 ranking.
    But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. One match at a time. But I cannot get over how he played against Djoko. I couldn’t sleep on Saturday night, I was so excited after watching the match!!! Today too I am restless! I am full of hope for Cincy! I want him to win it too!
    But I am scared too! I felt like this after USO 2010 and had great hopes for 2011! But it was my worst year, worse even than 2009! Not in terms of his performance but how he played against Djoko! It was so painful, I felt real pain in my heart! Especially when he lost at Rome and Wimbly!!!!! It was terrible!!! I still remember the shock, the pain, the feeling of helplessness!
    By the time he lost at USO 2011 and AO 2012, I was numb and fatalistic! The clay season 2012 gave me some hope but my hopes were raised only to have them cruelly smashed again. I don’t even want to remember Wimbly 2012 or what happened after that.
    Now he has come back but I don’t want to hope for too much. One match at a time please, I keep telling myself! Rafa, be healthy. Rafa, do well!

  26. Rafa takes back the #1 ranking if he wins Cincy and USOpen and Novak does not go beyond the semis. With the lopsided Cincy draw, I expect Novak to make the finals. But you know what, that is not what is on my mind right now. I am just enjoying Rafa’s re-found bravura! What a joy to watch! The way he dismantled Raonic…………poor Raonic lost all confidence and could not even get a first serve in! Rafa totally destroyed him mentally.

    The locker room is trembling now…………..

  27. It was great seeing Rafa storm through and win his 2nd hardcourt title of the year but for me it did not match the awe and excitement of Indian Wells. Nobody could possibly have predicted he would scythe his way through a strong field to take the title in his first hard court tournament in nearly a year and particularly after that long layoff.

    However, I agree with you Holdserve, the best thing of all is to see Rafa enjoying his tennis and playing at full power. After the set back at Wimbledon I just treasure each win as it happens.

  28. I wrote my comment in a wrong (SF) thread. Sorry!.I repeat it here.

    I am very happy that Rafa won his 8th title this year and his 25th Masters title! I am glad that he didn’t have to play a long final, I expected a tougher match.
    Rafa said after the final:
    – the surface in Montreal is faster than that in Indian Wells; the surface in IW is the most suitable hard court surface for him;
    – he recovered well after the match vs Djokovic;
    – he practiced serve return a lot in Montreal and his return worked well;
    – it’s difficult to reach the world No. 1 spot this year, but he is going to try.
    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/08/12/an-interview-with-rafael-nadal-august-11-2013/#more-9023

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