Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Alcaraz

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It’s an all-Spanish Indian Wells battle between the old guard and the young gun as 35-year-old Rafael Nadal takes on teenager Carlos Alcaraz. Saturday’s winner will meet either Andrey Rublev or Taylor Fritz in the final.

All eyes are going to be on Rafael Nadal as he goes toe-to-toe with 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz. The two Spaniards are two of the most in-form players on tour so far in 2022. Alcaraz lost in the third round at the Australian Open to Matteo Berrettini, but that’s his only loss on the season. He was 8-1 coming into the BNP Paribas Open.

Nadal has been even more impressive. The veteran hasn’t lost a match this year. He started his season with a win in the Australian Open warm-up event in Melbourne and followed up that victory with the capture of his record-breaking 21st major title at the Aussie Open. Nadal also snagged a title a few weeks ago in Acapulco. It is the best start the world No. 4 has ever had–and at 35 years old.

Saturday’s semifinal will be notable, regardless of outcome. Either Nadal will continue to add wins to his miraculous season, staving off a charge by a man nearly half his age, or it will finally signal a changing of guard–when youth finally overtakes one of the greatest players of all time. Alcaraz is certainly playing better tennis than when he met his countryman in Madrid last spring, when Nadal gave Alcaraz a free clay-court lesson and sent him packing 6-1, 6-2.

It’s doubtful any such thing is going to happen this time. Alcaraz has absolutely dismantled his opponents en route to the semis. The teen hasn’t dropped a set, with a particularly notable 6-2, 6-0 shellacking of Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round. He is playing well enough to give Nadal all he can handle.

The thing is that Nadal has just…handled things this season. All the things. He beat Daniil Medvedev in the final in Melbourne and again in Acapulco, he was too good Reilly Opelka’s serve in the Indian Wells third round, and he made quite a show of ousting Nick Kyrgios in the quarterfinals on Friday. The veteran played particularly impressive tennis against Kyrgios and there is nothing to indicate that he is ready to stop now.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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WWW: Nadal vs. Alcaraz?

108 Comments on Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Alcaraz

  1. 100% Alcaraz wins. Nadal actually struggled with Kyrgios for basically that whole match. Carlos is playing a few levels above Nick. Not to mention, Nadal’s dealing with foot pain.

    • I’m not saying that; i think if they both play the way they’ve played leading into to this match, then Alcaraz probably wins. However, there’s a high probability that Alcaraz still hasn’t overcome Nadal’s ability to make more inexperienced players feel uncomfortable.

      From what i saw, I think he has turned that corner, but you never know for sure until it actually happens.

      And, if Kyrgios can win a set then I think Alcaraz wins a set and i thought Nick played poorly at critical moments otherwise probably wins that match.,

      Norrie was in great form and Alcaraz showed a tremendous amount of resolve to overcome those service breaks which is what you need when you’re facing someone like Nadal.

      • It makes no sense to talk about should have or would have. It’s who plays better in the key moments and gets the win.

        Kyrgios has been a very tough opponent for Rafa. Any win against him is a good thing. Kyrgios has experience. He has the talent to beat almost anyone when he decides to play really good tennis.

        People are getting out of control with the hype for this kid. Rafa is not just going to roll over for him.,

  2. Also, even though Nadal has got through his matches, I don’t think he’s been great and is probably due for a break. He’ll probably need to be great to beat this version of Alcaraz.

    Nadal’s streak has to come to an end, especially at 35. This match feels like it’s probably the one.

    Nadal has been riding the momentum of his good fortune at the AO and the fact that he’s on 21 and has nothing lose, but he should start to feel the pressure in this one because it can signal a changing of the guard, and he will want to maintain his dominance heading into the French.

  3. I think Rafa wins. The kid doesn’t have a particularly impressive serve, does he? I’m betting that Rafa’s all-court mastery will see him through. He could have a bad day, of course.

    • He does not. But boy, is he good off the ground. He plays highly entertaining, aggressive hard court tennis.

      Plenty of bravado with him, but Rafa has never been overly fussed with the bravado of teenagers.

      I expect stretches of the match where Alcaraz is absolutely hitting Nadal off the court. I also expect those stretches to not last.

      • Ricky, to be fair to your dad, Alcaraz would probably have won in two against anyone in IW not named Rafa 😉 But the ‘
        ’22 version of Rafa seems to have forgotten how to lose. He was clearly not at his best in most of his matches, but he managed to wriggle through anyway. However, Rafa won against a superb Alcaraz because at the end he was the better player. I do not think that Alcaraz lost because on the other side of the net was his idol and the reigning GOAT. He lost because the player on the other side of the net was better. Some of Rafa’s reflexes at the net were unreal.

        • Littlefoot,

          I agree. Rafa’s superb net play really was a factor in this win. Some of his gets were jaw dropping. When it counted he was the better player.

          I think there is this aura of invincibility that players get at times. When you are on a roll and winning it seems like you can’t lose. Rafa is like that now. He has not been at his best but was able to beat Opelka and Kyrgios. Two very tough opponents. Then he had to take on this kid who has been on a hot streak of his own.

          When you can win even when you are not at your best, then it’s special. Rafa simply finds away to win.

          It has been extraordinary watching him. As someone on VB said so well, I am enjoying watching this Indian Summer of Rafa’s career.

  4. Alcaraz in three.
    I said he was going to win the whole thing so Ill stick with that.
    I like his game , he plays more aggressive than Rafa.

  5. I understand that Novax fans are pissed that he isn’t playing the sunshine double and hate that nobody else stops Rafa.
    However, betting on Alcaraz to end Nadal’s streak today doesn’t make much sense. I like the kid but who did he beat this year on hard? Any top 10 player? He’s better than Kyrgios on hard now? Nonsense.
    Unless Rafa has some health issues, I expect him to make quite light work of Carlito under the circumstances.

  6. Boy Rafa is always at the center of a block buster match!! Rafa is the only player in history to ALWAYS have a 🎯 on his back!! And everybody, good or not, is always expected to beat him, on hard, and even in clay at times!!’ Given al of Rafa”s achievements, I just never understand y that is!!!

  7. Rafa is returning quite well I find!! But Rafa has a match on his hands!! Rafa needs to ramp up his deliveries!! Like that he did just there!!

    • He is isn’t he?! Have NOT seen him take such aggressive swipes on first serve returns. He returned very well against Kyrgios as well

  8. Rafa is going to get challenged quite a lot on his serve. He’ll have his chances to break and will be the more steady player. I like how Rafa has come out of the gates. He knows the patterns.

    These two played a practice set togethet so must be familiar with the patterns.

    I just don’t want this to be a physically draining match.

    Rafa is the favourite here and I feel he’ll find a way again.

    • VR, actually I’m not nervous……yet! Rafa has been playing tennis for too long for him to not know what to do here! I like his on court attitude, he knows Carlos” intensity will die down!! So he is patient!! Alcaraz not having a great serving day though!!

      • Agreed! Alcaraz’s first serve is shaky.

        Ah mannn, that was a bit untidy from Rafa to lose serve again. Well done to the youngster for continuously pressing. I kno2 Rafa will keep facing these challenges on serve.

  9. I really enjoy the articles here and love reading the comments. I’m a Nadal fan who is more pessimistic than you are but I feed off your comments!!! Thank you!!
    Come in Nadal!!
    Adam

  10. Neither would I, and the majority of his fans! Especially when he goes and wastes bps like this given that Carlos” serves suck!!!! Rafa should have won that set already as far as I’m concerned!

  11. Without a doubt. I reckon whoever wins this match should win tomorrow – although I won’t feel like that tomorrow – but Nadal needs to keep holding his serve and I’m sure Alcaraz will give him enough opportunities to break if this continues the way it is!

  12. Nadal shouldn’t have said ‘c’mon’ after holding serve there. Part of the reason Nadal is maintaining an upper hand is because of Alcaraz’s respect for Nadal.

    • What?!! Rafa is a competitor, y should he care if Alcaraz is a fan!!! Alcaraz wants to beat Rafa so badly here and Rafa should not express his passion for winning the point? Sigh!

  13. Precisely!! I mean Carlos gets more confidence if Rafa can’t break given how lost he is serving!! If was Novak or Roger, that set done long!!!

    • Harder than necessary!! If Carlos was having a better serving day don’t know if Rafa would have won this set! And the wind is not helping much!!

  14. It so windy out there. Rafa is so adept at dealing with these conditions. The control he has on the forehand is jaw-dropping. The cross court ball is SO heavy and he is stepping up to flatten the forehand DTL.

  15. Alcaraz is playing nothing like he he did in previous matches heading into this match.

    Im sorry to say this but it looks like has Wawrinka syndrome.

  16. Y is Rafa making so many errors on top of having a rubbish serving day?!! 20 mins the game last and u can’t close?!!! Choopz!!

  17. So frustrating! The conditions made Rafa very impatient. I think he’ll get his head straight in this break and come back more focused.

  18. Alcaraz is a bit flat footed o nthe pass. he freezes for a moment. Will need to do some more work there to keep his body and mind in sequence.

  19. Bravo Rafa! This was a tough match against motivated youngster! Toni Nadal saying Alcaraz is more complete player than Rafa in that age speaks for itself! The kid is the future! But Rafa is the genius out there, hard to match that!
    I’ve always said Rafa’s net skills are his forte and that he should use it more often! This match proved he is such a complete player in every corner! Amazing volleys, high class!

    And more importantly, Rafa is so full of confidence! Such a joy to see! So, so proud of him!

    Vamossss Rafa! 💪💪💪

  20. Vamos Rafa! Glad to see him through to the final! Sounds like the IW ‘windy” was a bit too much even for Rafa today!

    Not to worry, Alcaraz fans, he’ll have plenty of success in the future. He’s 18! I’m sure he still has plenty of time and space to improve.

      • Ramadan good to know. I am getting confused by all these “Anonymouses” popping up here and spouting nonsense more often than not. Do you have an idea who they are 😉 ?

        • Correction: I was addressing you, Ramara. But my German autocorrect function tries to convert everything into German, and it turned it into “Ramadan” 😉.

  21. Great Rafa won!!! I’m glad the match is over, phew!!!! That was tough to watch!!! Anyway, Rafa is now 20:0….so……1 more to go to make it 21:0!!! Vamos, Rafa!!!💪🏽

  22. 3 hrs 13 mns ..that was long

    Btw how’s Rafa physically ..please update. I’m reading he had a mto n that too not for foot but shoulder ? What’s that all about. Just worried for fitness for clay

  23. As soon as Alcaraz realises that Nadal isn’t the buddy that he thought he was, that’s when he will start to win.

    Up next is Fritz that has been waiting for this opportunity. The improvement has been there for a while now and arguably should’ve done better at the AO but here he is again with another opportunity to prove that he’s but just striking the ball better but is genuine force to be reckoned with.

    Fritz could be Nadal’s toughest test to date this year.

  24. Well played Rafa, showing off his amazing volleying skills in atrocious conditions.
    And what a star in the making is young Alcaraz, such athleticism! One of my favourites of the young players, for sure.

  25. Alcatraz gave a great account of himself but it was always going to be near impossible to beat in form Rafa esp with the ‘awe’ factor. I love his game.

  26. I have to admit that Alcaraz was much better than I expected. He is definitely one of the best if not the best of the new generation. Even if Rafa had won in 2 sets, I would still think Alcaraz gave a good account of himself.

    The windy conditions in the 2nd set upset the apple cart a little when both players had difficulty controlling the ball.

  27. I didn’t see any ”awe” factor. On the contrary, it looked to me like the two trained often enough so that Alcaraz felt quite comfortable facing Rafa. Unfortunately in the second set the conditions didn’t really allow playing tennis so it’s pretty hard to make anything out of it.
    Like expected, in the end Nadal had more options, but Carlos put up a good fight.

  28. There was no “awe” factor. Both guys had a tough time with the wind in the second set. So I am not going to rate their play. Anyone who has lived in Southern California like I have, knows how difficult the wind can be.

    I thought Alcaraz was going to try to hit Rafa off the court in the first set. But he has a solid game that is very impressive for an 18 year old. Rafa did well to counter his power in the first set. Fortunately, the wind eased up enough to allow them to play decent tennis in the third set. I thought Rafa got much more aggressive. He was very strong in the last few games.

    Rafa’s experience and ability to make adjustments was a big factor in his win. This kid seems to be the real deal. I am usually skeptical of these young kids, but he has a lot of potential.

    • I too am usually pretty sceptical nny.
      But I think Alcaraz is the real deal. I was saying to vr that he seems to have some of rafa’s humility unlike Zverev and Tsitsi.
      I think he will end up winning multiple grand slams. He is the real deal for me in a way I have never seen in Zverev, Tsitsi and co…

      • amy,

        Yes. I am not usually very impressed when I hear all the hype. I like to wait and see how the latest young great player does. But I do think this kid is the real thing. For one thing, he is well mannered. Something we don’t see a lot of these days with the self-entitled nextGen.

        I am so sick of hearing these commentators wax poetic about Kyrgios, even though he behaves like a Neanderthal on the court. Being talented should not allow someone to behave like a piece of trash.

        It would be refreshing to see a young man who is willing to train and work to be his best. Someone who loves the sport and can play great and behave on the court.

        Rafa has praised this young man. I hope he can realize his potential.

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