Expert Picks get you ready for Day 2 of the U.S. Open, which is highlighted by an all-Canadian affair between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov. Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron preview the action and make their predictions.
(8) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Andrey Rublev
Ricky: Rublev is one of the toughest first-round draws, it has to be said. He is a former U.S. Open quarterfinalist and he recently upset Federer in Cincinnati. That being said, he is being hyped as the Second Coming heading into the U.S. Open and people probably need to tone it down just a bit. Federer was rusty having not played since Wimbledon and Rublev has not done much at any slam over the past 23 months. The Russian has to be somewhat fatigued, too. Tsitsipas may be struggling, but at least he is well-rested heading into the season’s final major. And the Greek loves the big stage. Tsitsipas in 4: 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(3).
Pete: Rublev was the first of the Next Gen to reach a quarterfinal at a major, something he was able to accomplish in New York two years ago. As an alternate in the qualifying draw in Cincinnati, the Russian the proceed to eliminate Stan Wawrinka and Federer before falling to eventual champion Daniil Medvedev. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas has 13 career wins at the majors but just one in the Big Apple and arrives with a three-match losing streak in tow. That said, all three losses were competitive–especially in the Washington, D.C. semifinals against Nick Kyrgios. The Greek is firmly entrenched in the ATP Top 10, while Rublev will be looking to build on his promising results in Cincinnati going forward. However, Rublev will need to wait until later in the year as Tsitsipas prevails in the battle of the 21-year-olds. Tsitsipas in 4: 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5.
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Denis Shapovalov vs. (18) Felix Auger-Aliassime
Ricky: In the long run I’m on the Auger-Aliassime bandwagon just like everyone else. He is a slam winner for sure and possibly a future world No. 1. For now, though, I’m not anywhere close to being on it. The 19-year-old Canadian appears to have hit the wall in what has been a breakout 2019 campaign. Most notably, his serve is an unmitigated disaster at the moment. Shapovalov has been struggling relative to his good friend and fellow Canadian, but he is coming off a semifinal performance in Winston-Salem under new coach Mikhail Youzhny. Unless Auger-Aliassime suddenly starts serving decent, Shapovalov should win this U.S. Open first-round rematch. Shapovalov in 4: 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.
Pete: Ironically, these Canadian upstarts will be meeting in the opening round in New York in consecutive years. Two paths have diverged in the road since last year, and of the two it is Auger-Aliassime who has played significantly better tennis in the last 52 weeks. Credit Shapovalov for recently adding Youzhny to his team. This move will pay dividends going forward, but not nearly enough immediately to cause an upset in New York. Even though Shapovalov has five match wins in the last two years at this tournament, Auger-Aliassime will finally be able to record his first hard-court win at a major and avenge last year’s loss to his countryman. Auger-Aliassime in 4: 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-4.
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Steve Johnson vs. (28) Nick Kyrgios
Ricky: With no disrespect to Johnson, he will mostly be an innocent bystander in this match. Like many Kyrgios opponents (although certainly not all), the American will not have much of an impact on the outcome…which might be a good thing for him. After all, Johnson just lost the last two sets of his Winston-Salem semifinal against Benoit Paire 6-0, 6-0 after winning the first set 6-1. Kyrgios his been all over the place this summer both mentally and from a results standpoint. The Aussie will likely be up and down in this one, as well, but he is actually playing good tennis right now and he will be inspired by a U.S. Open draw that gives him some marquee matchups down the road while also providing a very real shot at the semifinals. Kyrgios in 4: 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-2.
Pete: Kyrgios isn’t necessarily the $6 Million Dollar Man, but he is the “Six Figure Fined Man” as a result of his antics in a loss to Karen Khachanov in Cincinnati two weeks ago that cost him $113,000. The Aussie once again displayed his impressive capabilities and talent on court in winning Washington, D.C. earlier this month. That victory elevated him being seeded at the U.S. Open, a fact certainly not lost on the other 31 seeds in the draw. Even though he reached the semifinals last week in Winston-Salem, Johnson is scratching his head after being double-bageled by Benoit Paire when he was just one set away from the final. The American has fallen in the opening round in four of his last six major appearances. Kyrgios is already eyeing a potential third-round encounter with Tsitsipas and will do everything he can to ensure a rematch of their blockbuster Washington, D.C. semifinal a few weeks ago. Kyrgios in 4: 7-6(3), 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-5.
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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Tennys Sandgren
Ricky: Tsonga has quietly compiled a 23-14 record this season and he has not lost to anyone outside the top 35 since early May. The veteran Frenchman appears to be healthy these days, and when healthy he is always dangerous–especially on a big stage and on a relatively quick surface. Sandgren’s hard-court summer has been a complete debacle aside from a Winston-Salem first-round win over Andy Murray. Of course, Murray is not the same Murray…(yet?). Tsonga is not the same Tsonga, for that matter, but the 34-year-old is slowly making his way back and should have way too much firepower from the American in these conditions. Tsonga in 4: 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Pete: Tsonga’s losses at the majors this year have been to Novak Djokovic, Kei Nishikori, and Rafael Nadal. Thus he can certainly prevail in the matches he is expected to win in the best-of-five format. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, not being seeded leads to meeting the upper echelon of the ATP at the front end of majors. That said, Tsonga has reached the quarters three times in New York and given where he ended up in the draw, a berth in the quarters this year is not out of the question. Following a nice run to the round of 16 at Wimbledon, Sandgren picked up his lone win on hard courts last week in Winston-Salem–where he defeated Murray. Both Tsonga and Sandgren won titles this year, something that can not be said about both participants in these other three Day 2 matches. Tsonga recognizes that he can reach the second week in New York and will be dialed in right out of the gate. Tsonga in 3: 6-4, 7-5, 6-3.
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who ya got?
Having done my bracket,I’m on the fence on a lot. Most people picked FAA I guess because he’s the better player,but mentally I’d say Shapo will have the edge having won more matches both here and recently.Plus AA hasn’t been in a good place,Shapos picking up some form.
Shapo in four,Dimi in four,Tsitsi in four,Pella in five(50:50 to me)
Picking Shapo this time because the is Youzhny coaching him – taking a chance he’s helping. FAA had been struggling with his serve.
Pella is my man in 3
Tsitsi over Rublev
But I can’t help obsessing about Nole’s draw – I’m conflicted and have been switching things a lot.
Kyrgios in 3
Tsonga in 4
I don’t trust myself picking sets
I actually picked Nadal to win the whole thing ,because Djoko’s such a tough draw. Something I never do unless its clay …
Yeah Shapo seems the better pick, for a few reasons ,he’s more used to the Slams . Pella is my pick also , PCB was a bit disappointing in some of his matches lately .
My brackets are in , TDC and Tourneytopia. The WTA in particular has got so unpredictable, I went for quite a few upsets.
I’m down to doing only one bracket game and that’s the weekly Draw challenge. I hate picking a WTA brackets right now. But I can’t help myself. It’s all gonna suck. But I do it anyways 😀
Give me one good reason Bianca Andreescu can’t beat all WTA comers?
I keep changing the ATP final mix. Rafa over Medvedev was my latest iteration.
If she’s fit ,experience of the biggest matches is the only reason not to pick Andreescu.Its a long two weeks .
Yes, lack of experience is a very sound reason not to pick her. Especially important if it was best of five sets not three!
Then I remember Ostapenko beating Halep for the FO title. Andreescu sort of reminds me of that type of winner.
Serena is of course the favorite, as usual. But really? *Scratching my head* Probably should take Serena to at least the SF.
Whatever happens, WTA is likely to surprise.
Rublev in 4; Kyrios in 3; Shapo in 4; Tsong in 3.
Ostapenko was a bit lucky with the Halep choke IIRC. But I wouldn’t compare RG with the pressure pot of the US Open.
But anything can happen, we could well have a surprise winner again.
Nope, no surprise winner. I woke up early to follow your sound advice, Big al. 🙂
I’ve gone for a first time winner but not a surprise one…and Andreescu loses to Halep earlier.
Hopefully sound advice still works…
Tsonga in 4
Kyrgious in 3
Rublev in 4
Shapovalov in 4
Tsitsipas in four; FAA in five; Kyrgios in four ; Tsonga in four.
Tsitsipas in 5,Shapo in 4
Wanna betted on some multiples selection today.. Any best suggests from expert??
Tsitsipas doesn’t seem able to handle the power game; he couldn’t handle Rublev’s power hitting aggressive game, just like he couldn’t vs FAA and Shapo. They beat him with their raw power imo, not finesse.
Tsitsipas really needs to learn a thing or two on varying pace and absorbing the power and pace of his opponent’s shots. Murray is good at that, Rafa too, maybe Tsitsipas can take a lead out of their books?
Tsitsipas is playing more and more like Rafa, staying further away from the baseline, allowing Rublev to dictate from close to the baseline or from inside the court. Tsitsipas’s game seems to have gone backward.
Was a good match until Tsitsi started cramping in the 3rd set. He hung tough but it was hopeless after that. Sorry to lose one of them so early.
It was tough to watch Tsitsipas start cramping. That was really it for him. I think he has risen through the ranks too quickly and it’s been hard to adjust to getting so much attention. More pressure comes along with going up in the rankings.
The thing about Tsitsipas, I think he enjoys getting into baseline rallies too much, wasting energy doing all the running behind the baseline, when he should try to shorten the points. To me he’s not offensive enough.
Rublev hits with more raw power but at the same time, he’s more offensive, playing from closer to the baseline and steps inside the court often to finish the points quickly.
As I said before, Tsitsipas has the bad habit of starting slow in a match, and very often has to play catch up, in the process spending more energy than necessary. He has a good enough serve to win him some cheap points, but often he’s not making full use of that until his back is against the wall.
I feel he doesn’t have an offensive mindset, at least not as offensive as the likes of Rublev or Sasha or Shapo, despite having all the tools to be a really offensive attacking player.
Why did he play so well at the AO on a really fast court then ?
As I type, Sasha outlasts Albot, who ran out of steam at the end.
Lesson learned Sasha , hopefully…
He outlasted Fed, saving so many BPs with his serve. As I said earlier, back against the wall, he produced some great serving to get out of troubles. He has the tendency of letting the match drag on and so has to play five setters often (not unlike Sasha).
Fed also had himself to blame for not able to convert some of those BPs.
I swear some of the players read the posts here. As soon as I said Shapovalov cant perform outside his backyard he’s been on fire. Sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind.
Fed did the same when I said he’s the 3rd greatest of all time behind Nadal and Djokovic.