Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kuznetsov, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov

May 3, 2016 Ricky Match previews 69

Rafael Nadal will kick off his Madrid campaign on Tuesday when he takes the court for second-round action against Andrey Kuznetsov. Milos Raonic and Alexandr Dolgopolov are also aiming for a place in the last 16.

(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Andrey Kuznetsov

Nadal will begin his quest for a fifth Mutua Madrid Open title on Tuesday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard’s chances to lift a winner’s trophy at any tournament involving Novak Djokovic may have seemed unlikely at best when the 2016 calendar turned from March to April. But the story is a much different one now, as Nadal’s streak of two consecutive tournament titles coincided with an immediate loss by Novak Djokovic in Monte-Carlo (to Jiri Vesely). The 14-time major champion triumphed in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, beating the likes of Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini, and Kei Nishikori in the process.
Rafa
Up next for Nadal is a third career meeting with Kuznetsov, who is 0-2 lifetime in the head-to-head series. The Russian had the misfortune of facing Nadal on the clay courts of Roland Garros last season and it resulted in a 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 thrashing. Kuznetsov was far more competitive earlier this year on the hard courts of Doha, where he eventually succumbed 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. Soaring to a career-high ranking of No. 39 in the world, Kuznetsov is the midst of what is shaping up to be by far his best season on tour. He is 16-8 at the ATP level after taking care of Viktor Troicki 6-4, 6-4 on Monday. Unfortunately for the underdog, his best shot against Nadal came four months ago. A change in surface and a significant upswing in Nadal’s form and confidence should make for a far more straightforward affair than what transpired in Doha.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

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(11) Milos Raonic vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Raonic and Dolgopolov will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers on Tuesday. They split their two previous meetings, with Dolgopolov prevailing 6-3, 6-4 at the 2014 Indian Wells Masters and Raonic getting the job done 7-6(2), 6-4 in the same event one year later.

Despite missing all of February with an adductor problem, Raonic is third in the current race to London thanks to a title in Brisbane, a semifinal performance at the Australian Open, a runner-up finish in Indian Wells, and quarterfinal showings in Miami and Monte-Carlo. The 10th-ranked Canadian improved to 21-4 in 2016 by defeating Thomaz Bellucci 7-6(4), 6-1 on Monday. Dolgopolov advanced on Sunday, when he outlasted Steve Johnson 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(4). The 29th-ranked Ukrainian is 13-7 for the season and coming off a quarterfinal appearance in Barcelona. Clay would normally be advantageous to Dolgopolov in this matchup, but relatively fast conditions in Madrid should allow Raonic to maintain his momentum without too much trouble.

Pick: Raonic in 2

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69 Comments on Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Kuznetsov, Raonic vs. Dolgopolov

  9. More and more players using flat forehands down the line against Rafa and when executed they have good success… Rafa must be careful of this and be ready to counter..

    Reply

      • absolutely! Fog did that with great success… Nishi in the final…now Kuznetsov trying but missing as Rafa’s keeping a good length.

        Reply

  11. The inside-in and CC forehands are back to their best…just need to keep hitting them more regularly….just a matter of more match play

    Reply

  12. On the tennis channel Gimelstob was asked where he thinks Rafa will finish this year in the rankings. He said 2 or 3. No one is going to catch Novak this year for #1.

    Reply

  18. 3600 RPM… STRONG penetration…into the corner…. Rafa’s forehand DTL… impossible to deal with this combo

    Reply

  23. Kuznetsov’s style of play, IF implementing consistently, is always a challenge for Rafa. He is being challenged a little here ..waiting for a response! Make more impact on the return games, Rafa.

    Reply

    • His serve has come a long long way since MC! It was really good today. Now we just gotta hope he can sustain this serving level in all matches.

      Everything’s going really well for him. Another step towards glory…

      Telling ya, the fear factor is back now…

      Reply

  32. No point lost on second serve! is this a record or something?!

    And, 22 winners to 9 UE. Stats only tell half the story but these stats are damn impressive for a clay court match.

    ANd, there were no lapses in concentration in his service games. So, he also made progress there.

    Just need to keep doing this for a few more matches and he will be ready to take anyone down.

    Reply

  33. Rafa’s body language is so good right now. You can see the difference when he is on court now. It all seems to be coming together for Rafa.

    He is much more focused mentally now. The way he is constructing points and how well he is hitting his forehand, all good things!

    Rafa needed to win a title to help him get out of this funk! Now he’s got two and looking for more.

    Reply

  35. As a Raonic fan I can breathe again. He won over Dolgopolov 6-4, 6-7, 6-2. His 1st serve % was 80% – not bad!

    Reply

  36. I haven’t heard (&read) Rafa saying something good about the altitude in Madrid before today.
    The Madrid Open website, May 2, 2016: ¤¤ Nadal: “Conditions were perfect”
    …Rafael Nadal analysed his victory over Andrey Kuznetsov in a press conference. “The conditions were perfect for playing. With the heat and altitude the ball is more lively”, the Mallorcan explained to the media.
    …
    “I served well in both Monte Carlo and Barcelona but my serve was a little more effective today. It is critical here and I was very solid, I got a lot of points on my serve and it went very well in training too. I’m happy about that because it is vital if I am to have a chance in the tournament”, he noted.
    Regarding his potential opponents, the winner of 14 Grand Slams praised both Sam Querrey and Lucas Pouille. “Pouille is coming off the back of a final in Bucharest where he played great tennis and Querrey does well on this kind of surface with his big serve. I don’t think of my draw being open because the players that are there deserve to be there”, stated the Mallorcan.¤¤
    Read more:
    http://www.madrid-open.com/en/mutua-news/nadal-conditions-were-perfect//

    Reply

    • Good stuff from Rafa…

      Did anyone else notice his standing position while serving from the Ad court? He was standing farther from the centre line today on many occasions…i.e more towards his forehand corner. He found some nasty angles from there on the slider out-wide and hit some solid body serves and up the middle. I will be keeping an eye on his serving position in the next match. If he continues to do that, then it is something tactical. From from today’s match, I am sure it is tactical because he always does things with a purpose.

      I like that position , gives him good options for the serve. There is a draw back too but depends how he plans on using it against diff players.

      Reply

      • vr,

        That is an interesting observation. They are currently replaying Rafa’s match on the tennis channel. I am going to check out his serving position. I have to believe that this is tactical on his part.

        It would make me feel good to know that Rafa is trying different things to be more effective with his serve.

        I guess as you said, Rafa may use this against certain players and not against others. But I have been hoping that he would tinker with his serve in some way to get more of an advantage.

        Reply

        • yes, well said. I have been hoping for the same. Perhaps now that he is relaxed on court we will see some tinkering and risk taking.

          Do see his return position. I looked at the highlights and saw it but there were not too many first serves on the ad court in the highlight reel. You will see the replay so would be better to judge from there.

          Can’t wait for Rafa’s match!

          Does anyone think Coric can pose any kind of challenge to Novak? for a set may be?

          Reply

          • Yes, I did see Rafa standing further over! I don’t know why I didn’t realize it while watching the match.

            I don’t remember seeing Rafa do that. But his serving was very effective. I am interested to see what Rafa will do against tougher competition.

          • I don’t know if Coric can pose any threat to Novak. I think it depends a good deal on how Novak comes out playing. I expect him to be ready.

  37. I am trying to find out who the commentators were in the Rafa match yesterday because one of them, in trying to boost Kuznetsov’s chances said not only did Rafa have to beat him in 3 sets in Doha but they went to 3 sets at RG last year as well. How many sets does he expect Rafa to win in a best of 5 sets? Rafa actually won the match – 61 62 63.

    augusta, maybe you’ll know where to get the information as tennistv.com doesn’t have it.

    Reply

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