Brisbane final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Raonic

It will be a rematch of the 2015 Brisbane final when Roger Federer and Milos Raonic battle for the title again on Sunday. Federer is trying to lift the 89th winner’s trophy of his illustrious career.

Roger Federer and Milos Raonic will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers when they collide in the Brisbane International final on Sunday night.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 9-1, including 6-1 on hard courts. Raonic’s lone victory came via a 7-6(5), 7-5 decision at the 2014 Paris Masters that propelled him to a debut appearance at the World Tour Finals. They faced each other twice last season, including in this very same Brisbane championship match. Federer triumphed 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-4 before beating Raonic again 7-5, 6-4 in the Indian Wells semis.
Raonic
Success at the Indian Wells-Miami double was really the last significant Raonic sighting in 2015. The world No. 14 was plagued by a foot injury the rest of the way, which is the main reason why he has plunged out of the top 10. But he appears to be back is business in 2016 with victories this week over Ivan Dodig, Lucas Pouille, and Bernard Tomic. Raonic has dropped only one set (to Dodig) and one service game (to Pouille).

Federer is through to his third Brisbane title match in as many appearances. The 34-year-old Swiss has mostly been in cruise control this week aside from a second-set hiccup during quarterfinal action against Grigor Dimitrov, whom he held off 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4. Federer also boasts much more routine defeats of Tobias Kamke and Dominic Thiem.
Fed 3
“I think it was my best match of the tournament,” the top seed said after disposing of Thiem. “I thought I hit the ball pretty well, but that’s usually how it goes. You always play better toward the end. Nobody cares how you played at the beginning, as long as you got there.

“I’m very excited to be back in the final. It’s going to be special playing Milos again. Big-serving guys are always just tricky. I don’t know if it’s that I don’t like to play them–I always embrace the challenge of playing big servers. I have a really good record against them. I usually do a good job of getting the ball back and then finding a way. Sometimes it’s worked and sometimes it hasn’t.

“But I have no problems playing against him. Clearly, I respect his game. I think he’s made a lot of progress in the past few years.”

But how much as he improved? Probably not enough. The Canadian continues to be inconsistent from the back of the court and he did not break Tomic a single time in 12 return games on Saturday. Raonic may serve his way to a set, but Federer has a clear edge in this one.

Pick: Federer in 3

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51 Comments on Brisbane final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Raonic

  1. Congrats Milos.

    Raonic has improved so much off both wings and his ground game is very imposing now. He outhit Federer.

    It is creditworthy of nadal to beat Milos in abudabhi.

  2. Dang Raonic was super impressive from baseline he played way better than in the semis. I will say that Fed’s backhand was very vulnerable today. He missed a lot of passes and easy rally balls at very big moments. He was hitting much better in the semis too be honest.

  3. Fed is vulnerable to lose against even Muzz and Rafa at the AO.
    Not having any high hopes really of him for AO.

    Wimbledon title and Olympic gold should be his only priorities this season.

    • too bad his priorities coincide with Nole’s… 🙂 Nole lives for the day to receive Olympic Gold…it will certainly be his top priority besides RG title…

  4. As far as today’s match is concerned, Fed will do good to forget this one as quickly as he can. Struggled to serve and time his shots throughout the match. He even started laughing in the end on one of his BH!
    Milos served clutch!

  5. I would love to see this on the tennis channel. Maybe they will replay it. No way did I think that Fed would lose this, especially in two sets.

    Congratulations to Milos!

  6. Hello! the rookie is asking a question! it’s not about the WTA either! Why won’t certain guys be in Fed’s quarter for the AO? Is that speculation or is it fixed? Thanks!

    • Vicki,

      There has been research and study done on rigging in GS tennis draws. The question pops up before every GS somewhere on the internet. If I remember the author’s name (academic from a Balkan or Russian country), I’ll post it. After years of marveling at draws, it’s hard for me to account for the many coincidences without some suspicion. I try to remain innocent and in my happy place, but…

  7. Thanks guys! I have looked at a lot of draws myself and wondered. I am a HUGE (that’s putting it mildly) Isner fan and he always seems to get the toughest draws. last year at the US Open was the first time ever, anyone had ever retired when he was playing. Eight years on the tour, really? i thought that a bit odd, when Kudla and Pospisil get to the quarters in England, after the first or second time they played. I agree with a little too much coincidence for some players.

    • ?

      Isner has gotten some VERY good slam draws. Nobody follows Isner more closely than I do, and I’ve never noticed him getting harder draws more often than anyone else.

      Harrison is the American who always gets terrible draws.

  8. Congrats to Milos for the title win and beating Fed for the second time in their many meetings.

    Im not surprised with Fed losing the match as he wasnt really impressive throughout the whole tournament. He narrowly beat Dimi and Thiem made it competitive in the second set in the SF.

    I think this may be year that the young and not too young guns are finally making their move and giving pressure to the top and very top guys. Tomic, Raonic, Kygrios, Coric, Thiem and Dimi all are playing well and started the 2016 season showing some promises.

    Novak and Murray going to be 29 soon, Rafa 30, Stan 31 and Fed 35 – they wont stay up there for too long.

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