Shanghai Masters preview and predictions

October 11, 2015 Ricky Tournament previews 87

Novak Djokovic will surge into the second to last Masters 1000 event of the season just like he does pretty much every year—fresh off a title in Beijing. Djokovic cruised past Rafael Nadal in the 500-point final on Sunday for his sixth Beijing triumph in as many tries. Now both players head to Shanghai along with Tokyo champion Stan Wawrinka. This week also features the return of Roger Federer, who has played only two Davis Cup matches since the U.S. Open.

Shanghai Rolex Masters

Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $4,783,320
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Federer appears to have a favorable draw on his hands as he returns to tournament action for the first time since losing the U.S. Open final to Djokovic. Well, it looks good at least until the semifinals—where he could face Nadal. The 34-year-old Swiss awaits either Sam Querrey or Albert Ramos-Vinolas and his nearest seed is a weary-looking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Potential quarterfinal opponents for Federer are Kei Nishikori, Kevin Anderson, and Nick Kyrgios.

Nadal is on a collision course with Federer in the bottom half of the bracket. Getting that far would be an impressive result, though, as the eighth-ranked Spaniard is coming off a long week in Beijing and dealt with an apparent right-foot problem against Djokovic. Nadal may be up against dangerous big hitters early and often this week. He will kick off his campaign against the Jeremy Chardy vs. Ivo Karlovic winner. Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, and Marin Cilic also find themselves in this section.

At the moment it seems like no one other than Federer or maybe Wawrinka can even remotely trouble Djokovic, so the top-seeded Serb should coast through a quarter that is also home to David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, and Richard Gasquet. Ferrer has a tough draw on his hands with Bernard Tomic right off the bat likely followed by Richard Gasquet or Vasek Pospisil. Djokovic will be untested until at least the last eight unless Dominic Thiem catches fire in round three.

The weakest portion of the draw is undoubtedly the one occupied by seeds Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon. Berdych vultured a recent 250-point title in Shenzhen but has otherwise slumped of late, while Simon got handled in routine fashion by Gilles Muller in the Tokyo quarterfinals. Jack Sock may be able to take advantage and potentially face Murray in the last eight. Murray will run into danger in the third round in the form of either John Isner or David Goffin.

First-round upset alerts: Gilles Muller over (11) Richard Gasquet. Muller is a decent 2-3 lifetime at the ATP level against Gasquet. The two veterans most recently faced each other this summer in Washington, D.C., where Gasquet survived 5-7, 6-4, 6-4. With both players in fine form (Muller is coming off a semifinal showing in Tokyo), an upset would not come as a huge shock.

(WC) Tommy Haas over (12) Kevin Anderson. There is a possibility that Anderson is content with his best-ever Grand Slam finish (a quarterfinal at the U.S. Open) and will stumble down the home stretch this fall. The South African did not play again until Tokyo, where he got destroyed by Muller in the first round. Haas has not taken the court since a five-set loss to Verdasco in New York and he has not won an ATP-level match since Wimbledon. For the oft-injured 37-year-old, however, some rest may have served him well.

Tommy Robredo over (16) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. No result could be considered a surprise, as both players are proverbial wild cards on the heels of disastrous results this past week in Beijing. Robredo won the opening set of his first-rounder against John Millman then got blown out 6-1, 6-0. Tsonga struggled physically in a straight-set loss to Andreas Haider-Maurer. Amazingly, this is just the second-ever encounter between the two veterans. They have not gone head-to-head since the 2008 U.S. Open, where Robredo won in straight sets.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Marin Cilic, Feliciano Lopez, David Goffin, Jeremy Chardy, Gilles Muller, Donald Young

Cold: Milos Raonic, Fernando Verdasco, Adrian Mannarino, Tommy Haas, Victor Estrella Burgos

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer, Andy Murray over Jack Sock, Marin Cilic over Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer over Kei Nishikori

Semifinals: Djokovic over Murray and Federer over Cilic

Final: Djokovic over Federer

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87 Comments on Shanghai Masters preview and predictions

  1. These are my predictions:
    QF-
    Djokovic over Ferrer
    Murray over Simon
    Wawrinka over Raonic
    Federer over Anderson
    SF-
    Djokovic over Murray
    Federer over Wawrinka
    Final-
    Federer over Djokovic
    Probably some bias involved in the final pick but I do feel confident in roger that he will be able to do what he did last year against Novak in Shanghai.

    Reply

  2. I agree that Fed and Stan could be the only ones to trouble Novak. I think Rafa’s got a tough draw, especially a potential meeting with Karlovic in the early going. Then there’s Stan and Cilic. I don’t know about Raonic these days. I would like to see Rafa do well here, but there is the question mark of his foot and some tough opponents. One match at a time.

    Novak has a really good draw. I can’t see anyone stopping him.

    Reply

  4. Surprisingly you have listed Stan as hot, but you are not backing him to even reach the QF, is it because he is playing back to back events, or he is just too unpredictable?

    Reply

  7. Tignor, like myself, is picking Roger to defend his title over Novak in the final.

    He is being rather harsh on Nadal in my opinion. Former rival? Wow is all I can say…

    “Was Rafael Nadal’s runner-up finish at a 500 event in Beijing a success or a sign of continued struggle? On the one hand, he reached the final and got a measure of revenge on his surprising new nemesis, Fabio Fognini. On the other hand, he lost in ultra-routine fashion, 6-2, 6-2, to his former rival Djokovic in the final—the most troubling aspect may be that Nadal didn’t even play that badly, and still came away with just four games. We’ll find out more about Rafa’s form this week. One thing you can say about his draw, it doesn’t look like fun: Nadal starts against Ivo Karlovic, and could play Milos Raonic after that.”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/10/week-preview-shanghai/56565/#.VhweZ7xqrZZ

    Reply

    • Rafa and his Uncle clearly indicated prior to the match that Rafa knows “this year Novak, is a different league of my one”…the Serbian press published it all over the place…so whoever expected that Rafa would push hard in this match was wrong…Rafa played well but did not give it his all IMO…why would he? Novak owns Beijing anyway…

      Reply

      • Christophe Umlaut (@Chris_Umlaut) ALIAS hawkeye63 says:
        October 12, 2015 at 9:07 pm
        —Tignor, like myself, is picking Roger to defend his title over Novak in the final—
        ===
        .
        Money’s gone.

        Reply

      • Nah, Rafa did push hard in the first set but came out short because his shots were lacking precision. Novak’s OTOH barely touched the lines and the fact that Novak had to hit his shots to barely touched the lines was an indication that Rafa had pushed him to take more risk in order to win the point(s).

        In the second set, Rafa’s intensity dropped and he didnt make any changes to his game plan after losing the first set; and Novak after winning the first set, had gained more confidence and calm and so was playing better.

        I think Novak could still up his gear when necessary whilst Rafa would have to make changes to his game plan to stay with Novak. Novak usually beat Rafa in straight sets in BO3 HC matches even in Rafa’s good years of 2008 and 2013 so Rafa losing to a top form Novak 6-2, 6-2 wasnt anything shocking imo. The most important thing is that Rafa can overcome his nervousness and regain some confidence in his game.

        Imagine a few of Rafa’s narrowly out shots landing in and the score line may be more respectable even if hes not winning the match.

        Reply

    • I must agree…Roger engaged in those long rallies with Ramos which is not his favorite style of play…I immediately thought Roger would be in trouble…he was certainly not playing well and Ramos to my surprise did not choke…this is what Rafa’s slump this year does to the lower ranked players…they all start believing and continue fighting against top players…

      Reply

  16. ? NOOO ROGER!! ? Big win for Ramos though. It will be interesting to see how the opening up of the draw affects the tournament. Too bad for Andy that he is on Novaks side because he would be through to finals most likely but he will probably lose in semis to Novak. Hoping someone upsets at least one of them on the way though so we can have some deep runs from underdogs like last year when Simon and Lopez played in one of the semis.

    Reply

  17. This loss could really be a blow to his chances at keeping world number 2 and keeping that seeding for Melbourne and even Paris masters and year end finals.

    Reply

  23. @ lucky,
    I agree with what you said about Rafa pushing Novak in the first set and it would have been totally wrong to even think that Rafa tanked the match….it’s nothing like that…but what I am saying is that it was not Rafa pushing as hard as he could…he still has one more gear to go and he will prove it next time he meets Novak…that is my honest opinion…I think Beijing final is not important…if they are to meet in Shanghai final the situation will be much different…

    I definitely agree that if some of Rafa’s shots landed on the line it could have gone better way for Rafa even though he would have lost anyway…the thing is that Rafa does not consider himself ready to deal with this Novak and he rightly thinks so…but Novak and his team realized that this Rafa is an improved version…I even go that far to think that Novak mentioned Rafa’s potential injury in his ceremony speech to play yet another mind game with Rafa and his team…Novak knows Rafa is nearing his best and he already feels uncomfortable about it…and he should…

    Reply

  24. Little wonder Rafa and his team were panicked when he rolled his right ankle – I posted a link on the Rafa thread article that goes into the foot problem in depth and U.Toni’s MO for the remainder of the year. This must have prayed on his mind for the the remainder of the final. Indeed, Ricky commented in his view his level dropped by 10% after the MTO.

    NNY: In the article U.Toni confirmed Rafa is working on restructuring his game and hinted not to expect a change in his level until next year.

    Reply

  25. I easily would have picked Fed to be in the Finals….until this morning’s match….so forget that idea. Joker to win it all….and Sock to go far!

    Reply

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